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Oriental Effect: The 748i Saving Grace?  
User currently offlineManfredj From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks ago) and read 12056 times:

Good Evening. As a huge 747-800 fan, I like to think the question is not IF the 747-800 will become successful, but WHEN. It's been discussed before, but not in this fashion. I have complied a list of the "saving grace" airlines for the next generation jumbo. I am interested in everyone's opinion and speculation as to if these airlines will eventually order the type and when.

Keep in mind, the Chinese and Japanese are BIG believers in the 747, and rightly so. The intercontinental, in my mind, is the SAFEST bet in the VLA range as you are not rolling the dice with future PAX frequency. Like a Ferrari, I think the A380 is great, but only for a select few. The 747 is to the Orient what beer is to the Germans...they go hand in hand.

Here is my "saving grace" list for the 747-800 intercontinental. Comment on each or single one airline out. Thanks for your input.


China Airlines
China Eastern Airlines
Philippine Airlines
Thai Airways
Cathay Pacific
Malaysia
Korean Air
Eva Air
Oasis Hong Kong
All Nippon Airways
Vietnam Airlines


757: The last of the best
94 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlineBrenintw From Taiwan, joined Jul 2006, 1669 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks ago) and read 11940 times:



Quoting Manfredj (Thread starter):
Eva Air



Quoting Manfredj (Thread starter):
Malaysia

I think you can knock these off the list. BR is (from what I've heard) more than thrilled with the 77W, and will continue to go that route for its future LR PAX needs. I don't think that a small sub-fleet of 748i's will find a home in the future BR fleet.

MH has ordered the A380. I don't see it taking a second 4-holer, and it may decide to go only with twin-engine LR ops (thus dropping the A380). MH's route structure and economies don't call for 4-engine aircraft. (The exception being CPT - EZE, which pretty much requires it due to ETOPS.)

I see a future for the 748i in CI's fleet ... I still believe that the A380 is too large for CI. CI's best strategy would be to follow BR and offer frequency rather than larger A/C ... from my friends who live in LAX area, BR often wins their custom because of the frequency offered, since they can have a longer vacation with family within the same amount of time off work (which is exactly the reason why I'm willing to pay more to fly CX over MH or SQ when I go home to JNB ...)



I'm tired of the A vs. B sniping. Neither make planes that shed wings randomly!
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19943 posts, RR: 59
Reply 2, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks ago) and read 11935 times:

Every airline in the world is interested in the same thing: Making money.

If an airline feels that the 748 will make them more money than an A380, then they will use it. If they don't, then they won't.

Concepts like "loyalty" are lost in the business world.


User currently offlineERAUgrad02 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 1227 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks ago) and read 11930 times:

Havent a few of those carriers you listed already stated they werent interested? I can't wait to see this aircraft fift-off either.


Desmond MacRae in ILM
User currently offlineFlyingHippo From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 704 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (6 years 8 months 2 weeks ago) and read 11944 times:

China Airlines - Strong candidate - Large 744F fleet, and politics
China Eastern Airlines - Depends on politics
Philippine Airlines - Nope - A350 candidate
Thai Airways - No - Already A380 customer
Cathay Pacific - Probably not - A380 candidate
Malaysia - Nope - Already A380 customer
Korean Air - Already A380 customer
Eva Air - No - 773ER will be their largest aircraft in their fleet. Phasing out their 744s already
Oasis Hong Kong - Good candidate
All Nippon Airways - Maybe... but I doubt it.
Vietnam Airlines - Maybe, but I think they will go for A380 if they decide to go bigger than A359


User currently onlineBrenintw From Taiwan, joined Jul 2006, 1669 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 11921 times:



Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 4):
Cathay Pacific - Probably not - A380 candidate

I think CX will eventually go for both ... there's too large of a seating gap between the 77W and the A380. CX has the fleet size and route structure that will support both.



I'm tired of the A vs. B sniping. Neither make planes that shed wings randomly!
User currently offlineFlyingHippo From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 704 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 11899 times:



Quoting Brenintw (Reply 5):
I think CX will eventually go for both ... there's too large of a seating gap between the 77W and the A380. CX has the fleet size and route structure that will support both.

Yes, they do have the route structure to support both... But I think CX will make up the difference between 77W and A380 by increasing frequency of 77W flights to that city instead of supporting a second VLA fleet... Unless they can support a large number of A380 AND 748i...


User currently onlineBrenintw From Taiwan, joined Jul 2006, 1669 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 11857 times:



Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 6):
increasing frequency of 77W flights to that city instead of supporting a second VLA fleet... Unless they can support a large number of A380 AND 748i...

I'm fairly certain two 77W flights would be more seats than one A380 flight ... and CX isn't big on "non-daily" flights. We'll wait and see, but I still think CX will go for both -- it offers greater flexibility.



I'm tired of the A vs. B sniping. Neither make planes that shed wings randomly!
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6938 posts, RR: 63
Reply 8, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 11821 times:

China Airlines : somewhere between "possible" and "likely" / perhaps Boeing's best hope in the region
China Eastern Airlines : can't see it / they've never operated any 747s
Philippine Airlines : once the 744s have gone I don't see any more 747s there
Thai Airways : with TG you never know / "50/50"?
Cathay Pacific : the presence of 748Fs could swing it - but 'as well as' A380s rather than 'instead of'
Malaysia : unlikely
Korean Air : unlikely
Eva Air : unlikely
Oasis Hong Kong : are they in the market for new-build planes - and, moreover, a model where they'd be in a small number of operators? Can't see it.
All Nippon Airways : perhaps but I'd say close to 'unlikely'
Vietnam Airlines : highly unlikely

So, you're left with China Airlines and - perhaps - one or more of Cathay, Thai and ANA.

But if China Eastern, why not China Southern? (I know they ordered A380s - so have TG, KE and MH.)
Why not Asiana?
Why not JAL?

But if the 748i is going to be "saved" by oriental carriers ... it will only be by a small handful.

If the 748i finishes up with as many as five airline customers worldwide I'll be surprised.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10110 posts, RR: 97
Reply 9, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 11747 times:
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Quoting Manfredj (Thread starter):
The intercontinental, in my mind, is the SAFEST bet in the VLA range as you are not rolling the dice with future PAX frequency. Like a Ferrari, I think the A380 is great, but only for a select few.

If that is your clearly held view, why do you believe that the 748i needs "saving grace" airlines?  scratchchin 

For what its worth, the logic above has been applied (with great vigour) on A-net to the A380 vs 748i argument since the 748i was launched. Whether it's right or wrong, subsequent events seem to indicate that most VLA/potential VLA customers think differently.

With a 2 year delay in the A380 programme, and the dollar at an all time low, there never has been, and never will be, a better time to sell 748i's. And yet.....

I'm on record as saying that the 748i is a great plane, and there will be a market for it. I suspect, though, that my opinion of which VLA will be "only for a select few" is going to differ from yours.  Smile

Regards


User currently offlineDaron4000 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 712 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 11713 times:

I actually feel that a huge contender (if still around in present state post merger mania) for a large order of the 748 is UA. They still have a large 744 fleet of 30 strong, even after bankruptcy returns, which are being used to the max. A lot of the Asian turns do need the demand, which is why UA is increasing seating density following their cabin reconfigs of the 744 to a 374 pax count. Plus, they are a loyal Boeing customer and with a 5-hub route system, the 380 might not be able to rotate as easily through the network as a 748 could.

User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6938 posts, RR: 63
Reply 11, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 11706 times:

Not '"Oriental" but am I alone in seeing a possibility for the 748i at AF/KLM?

User currently offlineBrons2 From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3015 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 11695 times:

There is no saving grace for the 748i, and in fact I'm starting to wonder if even LH will get theirs built.


Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
User currently offlineBrons2 From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3015 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 11679 times:



Quoting Daron4000 (Reply 10):
Plus, they are a loyal Boeing customer and with a 5-hub route system, the 380 might not be able to rotate as easily through the network as a 748 could.

Eh, UA operates one of the larges A32x fleets in the world. They aren't that loyal to Boeing. They will make the commercially viable decision, whatever that might be.



Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
User currently offlineGrowly150 From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 158 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 11614 times:

I hate to be so PC but don't you think there could be a better choice of words than "Oriental" in a global forum. As pertaining to the topic, I think that at the rate the east is growing, larger and more next-gen aircraft are going to become a hot commodity and the competition seems to be heading toward the 748 and A380. Asia and China especially are growing and industrializing at a rate which the US and Europe have never experienced, and doing so in an age when technological advancement are available from other countries in massive amounts. It will be interesting to see how relations with Europe vs. America play out in the decisions on aircraft orders.

User currently offlineSeabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5608 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 11548 times:



Quoting Daron4000 (Reply 10):
I actually feel that a huge contender (if still around in present state post merger mania) for a large order of the 748 is UA.

Fully agreed, although nothing will happen for a few years because their 744 fleet is not that old yet. They need VLAs. But I'm not convinced they'll want to put A380 levels of capacity on their VLA routes.

NW might acquire just a few for DTW-NRT and MSP-NRT, although most of its 744s will be replaced by smaller aircraft.

Quoting Brons2 (Reply 12):
in fact I'm starting to wonder if even LH will get theirs built.

LH will get theirs built. Even if no one else orders, there will be tons of 748Fs out there, and the marginal cost to Boeing of building even 40 748Is should be low enough to make the program worthwhile. If any airline in the world can cost-effectively maintain a unique fleet, it's LH.

I have one more dark-horse idea which will cause you all to think I'm crazy: SQ. I know they've said no. But I think a 748I could work for them as a premium product for ULH routes. SQ has rejected the aircraft, among other reasons, because its Y cabin can't match that of the A380 or 77W. But what if they were to take 748Is with large premium sections and 9Y? Such a light 748I would have staggering range (approaching 77L territory) and be perhaps the most comfortable plane in the sky. If there is high enough demand, it could be cost-effective on very long routes in a way that neither an A380 nor a smaller ULH widebody (77L, A345) could.

Of course, if the A380R is as good as it could be (with, e.g., Trent XWBs), then my crazy idea might go out the window...  crazy 


User currently offlineAnonms From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 620 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 11534 times:

The most likely candidate for the 748i would probably be CI. Given that they intend to boot all 738s into AE, politics have a high chance of being the main motivator (behind the scenes, of course) towards ordering the 748i.

Quoting Growly150 (Reply 14):
As a Chinese person, I hardly find it offensive. I think those of us that would fall under the "Oriental" label should decide on the PC-ness of the term, and I often refer to myself as Oriental.

[Edited 2008-02-12 21:41:13]


This is my signature.
User currently offlineTrijetsRMissed From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 2377 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 11497 times:

CI and TG may be the best bets. Who knows, maybe JL down the road once the 748I has flown and the airline is in a better financial status. One thing we can all probably agree on, if the 748I is to become a success it is going to need orders from airlines from the Orient.

Quoting PM (Reply 11):
Not '"Oriental" but am I alone in seeing a possibility for the 748i at AF/KLM?

Chances of this would be much better if a combi version were in the works.

Quoting Brons2 (Reply 13):
UA operates one of the larges A32x fleets in the world. They aren't that loyal to Boeing. They will make the commercially viable decision, whatever that might be.

Yet every other type in the mainline fleet is a Boeing. I'd chalk a little of that up to loyalty, especially for widebodies. Not to mention the A320 order was made before the 737NG was designed.

Quoting Growly150 (Reply 14):
I hate to be so PC but don't you think there could be a better choice of words than "Oriental" in a global forum.

Is "Northwest Orient" politically incorrect?  Yeah sure



There's nothing quite like a tri-jet.
User currently offlineGrowly150 From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 158 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 11453 times:

I apologize for being uninformed. I guess I'm always learning...

User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8634 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 11452 times:

The 748 does not really compete with the A380. Instead, it competes with the 77W and A350-1000.

Massively premium routes like HKG-LHR will be A380 only. It will colonize the premium J territory, winner take all. But the 748 is like an A380 with a mini premium cabin and FAR less fuel burn. No comparison. (the "5% more fuel burn" statements on A380 are nonsense.)

So if it were that simple, the 748 would have a huge market, if the A380 were the only concern. The 748 trip cost promises to be a great deal cheaper than A380 (revisit: A380F vs 748F). Another clue: 20% greater fuel capacity on the A380, and 25% greater MTOW. Same range. Duhhh, that means higher trip cost for the A380. Yes, really.

So the 748 should be sitting pretty. However, (dang it!) the 77W mops up almost the 748's entire market. For sub-premium large markets, the cases in which the 748 beats the 77W are narrow indeed.

I think the 77W is killing the 748. Meanwhile the A380 has created its own class above both Boeings, and it has no competitor.


User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1307 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 11375 times:



Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 17):
Not to mention the A320 order was made before the 737NG was designed.

And yet they are very happy with them. I think the door is wide open for another Airbus product.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
I think the 77W is killing the 748. Meanwhile the A380 has created its own class above both Boeings, and it has no competitor.

Good summary. A few additions have to be made though. Also the A350XWB-1000 is in the 748 territory (as you mentioned above). And still there is a niche market for the 748.

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 15):
LH will get theirs built. Even if no one else orders, there will be tons of 748Fs out there, and the marginal cost to Boeing of building even 40 748Is should be low enough to make the program worthwhile.

So there is no real need for Boeing to sell more pax versions. And if they do it will be for a good price only. The LH concept might work for other airlines too. CX and BA are the most likely candidates for the A380/748 mix eventhough chances are remote.



There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineAntonovman From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2001, 721 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 11317 times:



Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
the "5% more fuel burn" statements on A380 are nonsense.

Come on then Einstein, enlighten us.
So many experts and so little knowledge !


User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2215 posts, RR: 56
Reply 22, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 11256 times:



Quoting Manfredj (Thread starter):
As a huge 747-800 fan,

... it certainly is surprising that you wouldn't know that it's designated 747-8, not 747-800. Of course, if this is a deliberate affectation, I withdraw my comment  Smile

Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
But the 748 is like an A380 with a mini premium cabin and FAR less fuel burn. No comparison. (the "5% more fuel burn" statements on A380 are nonsense.)

It all depends on how one measures fuel burn. Minimizing fuel burn per occupied seat is what makes the airlines money. But comparing fuel burn per seat can be a risky proposition, because the calculation depends strongly on the assumed seating arrangement and load factor. Not surprisingly, a denser configuration reduces fuel burn per seat. Seat Magic (TM) can thus be used (nay, abused) to arrive at just about any preconceived result.

Your "5%" reference may be just such a case, who knows... and your "FAR less fuel burn" statement should be taken with a similar grain of salt.

At comparable payload densities, without Seat Magic (TM), the A388's fuel burn per seat likely edges out the 748I's by a nose-- as can be derived from published specs using the Breguet range equation. The results agree well with the A380 / 748I comparison once published by 'the' customer, who would know about such things.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
Another clue: 20% greater fuel capacity on the A380, and 25% greater MTOW. Same range. Duhhh, that means higher trip cost for the A380. Yes, really.

Is it your point that a smaller aircraft such as the 748I will consume less total fuel? That would be obvious. However, I'm not sure why minimizing trip cost would be an explicit goal. If it were, everyone would be flying in business jets.

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 4):
China Airlines - Strong candidate - Large 744F fleet, and politics

 checkmark  especially after ordering a bunch of A350's, spreading the wealth would be the politically correct move.


User currently offlineThegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 11250 times:



Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
Duhhh, that means higher trip cost for the A380. Yes, really

I don't think anyone has said the the A380 will have lower trip costs than the 748i. The thing is that the A380 is expected to have lower CASM, and only slightly more trip costs. It's only if the 748i exceeds expectations that it can expect many orders.

Quoting Daron4000 (Reply 10):
I actually feel that a huge contender (if still around in present state post merger mania) for a large order of the 748 is UA.

That's quite possible, but only because they've been napping while almost every other airline around has been ordering new aircraft. The 748 probably has one of the shortest lead times on the market at the moment.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10110 posts, RR: 97
Reply 24, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 11068 times:
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Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
But the 748 is like an A380 with a mini premium cabin and FAR less fuel burn. No comparison. (the "5% more fuel burn" statements on A380 are nonsense.)

If I recall correctly, those "5% more fuel burn" (accurate or otherwise) were relative to the 744, not the 748i. The 748i will burn a lot less fuel than the 744.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
Another clue: 20% greater fuel capacity on the A380, and 25% greater MTOW. Same range. Duhhh, that means higher trip cost for the A380. Yes, really.

20% greater fuel capacity? Largely meaningless. Neither plane can carry full passenger payload AND full fuel. So the comparison doesn't help you much.
25% greater MTOW? Again largely meaningless. The fuel burn depends on the aerodynamic drag, upon which MTOW is only one influencing factor.
(The 787-8 is heavier than a 767, but will burn less fuel  Smile )

By my reckoning, the "nominal" A380 on a typical mission will burn about 17%-19% more fuel than the "nominal" 748i, whilst offering 30% more capacity

The A380 will DEFINITELY have substantially higher trip fuel burn  Smile

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 22):
Minimizing fuel burn per occupied seat is what makes the airlines money

 checkmark 
I suspect A380's built from 2010 onwards to beat that fuel burn figure by 2%-3%, due to OEW reductions and SFC improvements already planned.
Of course we don't know 748i actual performance yet either, so there's a variable still there..

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 22):
Seat Magic (TM)

Are you claiming copyright on this?  biggrin 

Regards


25 Carpethead : Missing off the list of highly possible candidate is Air China (CA). They could go for both freighter & pax versions. Other operators, though not very
26 Kappel : What about Air China? They currently operate 744's... Certainly not at KL, and AF seems unlikely with their a380 order. But I guess that will be wait
27 Alessandro : So isn´t El Al a possible customer?
28 WCS : No way in my opinion. AF is dumping the whole 747 fleet (pax and cargo) even faster than forecasted before and switch to the 777. I think it will be
29 Columba : So was Lufthansa. Thai recently stated that they might order 8 747-8Is and I am hoping for that as I am too a huge 747 fan !! Korean Air just placed
30 MSYtristar : People are so impatient in regards to this airplane. It's really amazing. Give it time, folks. LH will not be the only airline flying the 748i. The pr
31 SKAirbus : A bit over the top don't you think? So far the only airline to order the pax version is a european airline and how long has the aircraft been availab
32 Carls : Can you tell me how come you can think this, when there are only 20 747-800I sold, to only one customer at one year and half to EIS. I would say abou
33 Stitch : AF will certainly not take it as the A380 and 77W cover their needs. As to KL, I tend to not see them as an A380 customer. They too are replacing the
34 Clipper136 : So much so that they decided to remove it from their name, and so the name does not exist today. Much in the same way that the N word or the K word i
35 NA : There is a large gap between the A380 and the 773ER. One of the worlds most successful airlines, LH, has clearly noted that. And, who says that by 20
36 Columba : Almost certain, the LH 747 fleet manager recently said in an interview that LH has the need for around 50 747-8Is. Also LH has placed additional orde
37 AirbusA6 : Except here in the UK 'Asians' is the name used to people from South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh). The word 'oriental' for East Asia is commonl
38 NA : No, Air China also operates some pure pax 744s. Around half a dozen, not very many.
39 Manfredj : Agreed, I've always thought CX will be the next 748 customer. I'm just wondering exactly what their fleet renewal plans are. I used Oriental because
40 NA : CX is a mystery to me. One of the top airlines, and they are so shy when it comes to make decisions for their future "Prestige" aircraft.
41 Manfredj : Not really, the 747 program is over 30 years old, and to have the orders it ALREADY does is amazing Cmon, you can do better than that....Look at all
42 Stitch : The 77W would nicely approach the capacity of their two-class 744s and the A388 offers a nice capacity increase to their three-class 744s. So I hones
43 Post contains images EA772LR : The 748Fs on order may sway an order for 748Is. LH is very unique. Interestingly, in a time where everyone is switching to big 'twins', LH have stuck
44 Flighty : It will? I have not seen even Boeing claim that this is true. 787 weighs 242,000 lb empty, a full 20% heavier than the 763ER and 30% heavier than the
45 Anonms : The 744 is hardly the beer of the Orient. The 748i is being compared with the A350-1000 and the 777 because that's what airliners are doing. Just look
46 EA772LR : The problem is, LH really likes the 346, which they decided to order more, even after the numbers on the 77W were out. I think the time for LH to ord
47 Manfredj : Naughty. I was excited to see you chime in on the conversation flighty....but a comment like that almost undoes your well stated previous comment on
48 AirbusA6 : A disadvantage being the lack of commonality between the 748i and the A350/380. Flying the non fbw 748i will be somewhat different to the fbw 787/777
49 FlyDreamliner : A350 candidate, really? What makes you so sure, especially after they just ordered 777-300ERs even with A340-300s in the fleet. I would say they are
50 Post contains images EA772LR : Pretty irrelevant statement (no offense) considering LH already operates the 744.
51 Carls : Sir I will suggest you to re-read my post. I said that probably some LCC could be the one buying the 748, but I don't see any of these airlines buyin
52 AirbusA6 : Now yes, but when the 744s go out of service, they could end up with a long haul fleet of say 787/A350s, A346s, 748is and A380s, the 748is being some
53 AirNZ : Nonsense, (or unacceptable perhaps) to whom? May I ask on what basis you are making such a statement, and I assume you can verify it with facts? Or,
54 DAYflyer : Boeing made the same stupid mistake with the 748 that Airbus did with the original A-350, so not too many airlines are going to pick it up. I am a Boe
55 NCB : I think Boeing will announce a B748i order at the Singapore airshow. And I'm going to guess again but it's likely going to be NH. 1. NH stated it want
56 EA772LR : Ok understood. But if you look @ LH's fleet now, they are pretty much all Airbus (FBW), minus their 737/747 fleet. I don't think LH is concerned with
57 Post contains images Stitch : First off, I need to note that in Reply 42 I was referring to AF and not LH. AF will have a 225 seat gap between their A388s and 77Ws. EK will have a
58 Post contains links and images Astuteman : According to Widebodyphotographer's master mission data set, here http://theaviationspecialist.com/master_lh_mission_dataset.gif on a 6 000 Nm missio
59 Stitch : Well we know KE has just taken three A388s and the rumor mill has MH adding two more at the Singapore Air Show, along with the 747-8F and 77W. PA also
60 Seabosdca : Thanks for the interesting data! I'd be curious to know WBP's sources. The chart is relevant to this conversation, too, as it shows a 553-seat A380-8
61 DAYflyer : I do see lots of success for the F. I hope Boeing can come up with a few orders for the pax version this year.
62 Post contains images Lightsaber : I've been reading down the list and I find the speculation interesting. Part of what will swing who orders what is delivery times! CX could be a big
63 Astuteman : That doesn't surprise me. A fair question. The only issue I've had to date with WBP's data has been in respect of the Trent 900's SFC, which I've bee
64 Post contains images Buddys747 : I can't wait untill the next 748i order, I wonder what all the nay sayers will say then. Is it the best replacement for the airlines? Not all, but it
65 YVRLTN : China Airlines - CI have got to be one of the best bets - but have an LOI (I think??) for A3510's, which may be an indication of the way they want to
66 Post contains images Seabosdca : They could use the "current" 748I in a low-density configuration (or with restrictions), depending on just how badly they want to start service. With
67 Post contains images Stitch : The 747-8I and A380-800 should have essentially identical passenger densities per unit of floor space. Both planes are 10-abreast per row. Using thei
68 Buddys747 : I guess I was thinking of the current Airlines separate, but if they do merge the A380 could be a contender I suppose to the Pacific. Europe seems to
69 WestJetYQQ : Being the world's largest 747 operator, I can't see JAL not going for the 748i.
70 Carls : To all those airlines who have compared them and have chosen the A380 instead of the 747-8 I Do you want me to post the list of those Airlines?[Edite
71 KochamLOT : ANA was launch customer for the 787 and use 777-300ers for most trans-oceanic flights. Anybody know whether JAL will buy 748s? Is the 748 project off
72 Stitch : The 747-8 freighter will roll-out in 2009 and the 747-8 Intercontinental (passenger) will roll-out in 2010. The large capacity and long range of the
73 Manfredj : Yes, I forgot to include JAL in my list. They are a very important factor here....good point. They are definately comfortable enough with the 744 to
74 Post contains images Astuteman : Not sure I fully understand that. As far as I am aware, both aircraft have near-identically shaped range/payload diagrams. Only the height of the pay
75 Flighty : !! Amazing if true. That is really mind blowing (as aircraft statistics go). Thanks
76 Post contains images Astuteman : Can't argue. Guess that's why 800 of them have gone off the shelves.. All I was trying to point out is that, although weight is "evil", sometimes it
77 Seabosdca : The ones I've got show the A380 having a steeper slope in the portion between MZFW and full fuel, giving the 748I an advantage in lower-density confi
78 Post contains images Astuteman : Me reckons that each tonne of A388 OEW replaced by a tonne of fuel adds c. 40Nm to the range. Removing 4 tonnes off OEW is going to happen - it's not
79 Post contains links Rheinwaldner : And "pling", that miracle happened! See here: "the Boeing 787 has a 30% lower fuel burn than the Boeing 767" from this link http://www.britishairways
80 TrijetsRMissed : I didn't say they were unhappy with them. Just noting that when talking loyalty, the commitment to the only non-Boeing model in the fleet was made be
81 Flighty : Ok but again, those sources are misleading. They appear to say the 788 has 30% lower fuel burn than a 763ER. Which is, again, a bunch of horse excrem
82 Cpd : I have a suspicion that some of those airlines mentioned will go for the A380 later down the track. I'm expecting United Airlines to do so, if/when th
83 Post contains links Rheinwaldner : When comparing different but close sized planes you must compare fuel per seat. Comparisons by Boeing, the media or just anyone are always meant "per
84 Post contains images Lightsaber : Then it would make more sense to go with a 772LR. EK has made it clear they need a larger and more economical aircraft than the 772LR for flights to
85 Viscount724 : JL has said many times over the past few years that one of the main reasons for their financial crisis (apart from economic issues in Japan) was thei
86 Post contains images Cloudyapple : Ignoring the unrealistic 96kg/pax weight by Boeing, we have... 400pax at 100kg/pax = 40t or 88000lb payload Assumme no cargo. A380 range ~= 8550Nm B7
87 SEPilot : Saying one plane does or does not compete with another is a bit deceptive. When you really come down to it every airliner competes with every other o
88 Scbriml : In the same way many predicted BA was a sure-fire 748i customer?
89 Seabosdca : Sorry about that. I should have been clearer; I was referring to equivalent density. 400 pax on a 748I is comparably dense to about 515 pax on an A38
90 Flighty : OK well just on a pure logic level I agree with you. I think there is a game aspect to this. The other players have A380s, so if you don't, no premiu
91 Post contains links and images Stitch : The wrapper doesn't matter. What's inside does. What would you rather fly: A 777 with this? View Large View Medium Photo © Nick de Jonge - Jet-A1 Im
92 WingedMigrator : Technically, sure. Economically, maybe not (except for the 787). That's the whole point... the more efficient the airliner, the more opulent a premiu
93 Buddys747 : I'm not so sure about all this. Not everyone will go on a flight based on who has the best cabin or biggest aircraft. Say BA puts an A380 on LHR-JFK,
94 Stitch : I'm not arguing that. Heck, I have advocated as much in the past. I'm just arguing that I don't believe premium passengers will chose the A380 just b
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