Nwa747-400 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (13 years 12 months 8 hours ago) and read 2330 times:
My question is, why can't DL , CO , and NW just create an alliance such as the CO/NW deal now. NW/CO have a substantial market share with their alliance and with DL onboard they would have the biggest market share in the industry.
While they would not have to deal with all the problems of a merger and the customer would be happy because they would still have the ability to choose between several airlines, not just three?
I think a "mega alliance" between DL, CO, and NW is much more attractive than a "mega merger" of all or part of the three.
DCA-ROCguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (13 years 12 months 8 hours ago) and read 2311 times:
That's a big question mark. If the Bush Administration approves AA-TW and UA-US, the others will bleat that they have to merge too to remain competitive. I'm not convinced, but the DL-CO-NW will simply bleat and bleat, year after year, until they'are allowed to merge. Industries don't usually settle out in two sharply distinct tiers of major companies.
The funny thing is, AA-TW wouldn't produce that unbalanced situation in the industry. AA-TW would give AA 22.6 percent of the US market, only 2.4 percent more than UA has now. I don't see any structural reason for any merger other than AA-TW to be approved, but Don Carty cannily stapled AA-TW and UA-US together in order to save the yummy anticompetitive round of consolidation the execs all want.
I'm still undecided, but am leaning towards allowing AA-TW and canning everything else. The industry won't be *that* out of balance if only AA-TW merge.