Nwa747-400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1337 posts, RR: 4 Posted (13 years 5 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2143 times:
My question is, why can't DL , CO , and NW just create an alliance such as the CO/NW deal now. NW/CO have a substantial market share with their alliance and with DL onboard they would have the biggest market share in the industry.
While they would not have to deal with all the problems of a merger and the customer would be happy because they would still have the ability to choose between several airlines, not just three?
I think a "mega alliance" between DL, CO, and NW is much more attractive than a "mega merger" of all or part of the three.
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4487 posts, RR: 33
Reply 1, posted (13 years 5 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2124 times:
That's a big question mark. If the Bush Administration approves AA-TW and UA-US, the others will bleat that they have to merge too to remain competitive. I'm not convinced, but the DL-CO-NW will simply bleat and bleat, year after year, until they'are allowed to merge. Industries don't usually settle out in two sharply distinct tiers of major companies.
The funny thing is, AA-TW wouldn't produce that unbalanced situation in the industry. AA-TW would give AA 22.6 percent of the US market, only 2.4 percent more than UA has now. I don't see any structural reason for any merger other than AA-TW to be approved, but Don Carty cannily stapled AA-TW and UA-US together in order to save the yummy anticompetitive round of consolidation the execs all want.
I'm still undecided, but am leaning towards allowing AA-TW and canning everything else. The industry won't be *that* out of balance if only AA-TW merge.