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747-8i: "6 Ongoing Sales Campaigns"  
User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4377 posts, RR: 27
Posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27412 times:

expects 2008 to be a 'big year' for Boeing's 747-8 Intercontinental aircraft. He said there appeared to be 6 ongoing active sales campaigns, 3 of which could conclude in 2008.


If true, perhaps the demise of the 747-8i have been greatly exaggerated.

Any guesses who/what the 6 campaigns are?

My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
255 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21636 posts, RR: 59
Reply 1, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27434 times:

Well, it went from 20 down to 6 with only one previous sale.

Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineRbgso From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 602 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27397 times:

"announced its first order of 4 new-generation 737-800s, with an option to buy 2 more, in a deal valued at $1.65 billion."

So six 738s for $1.65 billion? That's $275 million per 738.......something's not right here.

User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3419 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27367 times:

Quoting Rbgso (Reply 2):
So six 738s for $1.65 billion? That's $275 million per 738.......something's not right here.

:D definitely, that's more expensive than the A380 - would $165 million be about the right price for 4 be about right?

User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 61
Reply 4, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27323 times:

China Eastern
Air China
China Airlines

What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 13240 posts, RR: 46
Reply 5, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27322 times:
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"Appeared" to be involved in 6 campaigns?  confused 

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
If true, perhaps the demise of the 747-8i have been greatly exaggerated.

That would depend entirely on whether the 748i actually wins any of those campaigns.  wink 

Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineT773ER From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 278 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27295 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 3):
:D definitely, that's more expensive than the A380 - would $165 million be about the right price for 4 be about right?

The 1.65 billion is in AED, not US dollars. It would be about 445 million in US dollars.

"Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man."
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 61
Reply 7, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27300 times:

Quoting Rbgso (Reply 2):
"announced its first order of 4 new-generation 737-800s, with an option to buy 2 more, in a deal valued at $1.65 billion."

So six 738s for $1.65 billion? That's $275 million per 738.......something's not right here.

About right for four 748is with all the bells and whistles though.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 5):
Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
If true, perhaps the demise of the 747-8i have been greatly exaggerated.

That would depend entirely on whether the 748i actually wins any of those campaigns

See below:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 4):
China Eastern
Air China
China Airlines

I'd say a 50% win rate there is realistic.

What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 13240 posts, RR: 46
Reply 8, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27260 times:
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Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 4):
China Eastern
Air China
China Airlines

I would put Air India, All Nippon and even Jet Airways ahead of some in that list.

Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 7278 posts, RR: 50
Reply 9, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27220 times:

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 5):
That would depend entirely on whether the 748i actually wins any of those campaigns.

That, of course, is the $64,000 question. Those of us that love the 747 can certainly hope so.

The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineAnonms From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 630 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27184 times:

I'd put CI at the top of the list; they're probably the most likely to adopt the 748i, IMO.

This is my signature.
User currently offlinePC12Fan From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 2507 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27124 times:

This is why I hate speculation. Why announce that there may be customers. Just announce the orders. Actions are louder than words.

Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2455 posts, RR: 10
Reply 12, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27124 times:

Only 6 ongoing campaigns? Of all the airlines in the world they can only pick 6 to talk to? That is sad.

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21636 posts, RR: 59
Reply 13, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27100 times:

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 12):
Only 6 ongoing campaigns? Of all the airlines in the world they can only pick 6 to talk to? That is sad.

The rest said no.

BA, AF, SQ, QF are four biggies who said no.

Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5822 posts, RR: 46
Reply 14, posted (7 years 1 week ago) and read 27075 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 4):
China Eastern
Air China
China Airlines

And Air India

That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineCX flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6666 posts, RR: 55
Reply 15, posted (7 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 27016 times:

Why has noone mentioned Cathay yet? With a large aircraft decision being looked into, and 747-8Fs on the way next year, surely they are a very realistic target for Boeing.

User currently offlineSQ325 From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 1460 posts, RR: 7
Reply 16, posted (7 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 26879 times:

Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 15):
Why has noone mentioned Cathay yet?

Just wanted to add Katie from the Pacific
My others would be

China Airlines
and I would not exclude EK of the game. As the B748Fs will be crewed by EK pilots they could also be interested in getting the Pax version.
my 6th vote goes for AI or Air China

User currently offlineSKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 879 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (7 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 26880 times:

Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 15):
Why has noone mentioned Cathay yet?

There is in this web-site a CX pilot who is sure 100% Cathay Pacific will be not a 747-8I PAX customer  Wink

Maybe he's right.

I'm pretty sure CX will buy or A-380 or 747-8I. One of them is nearly sure.

As a good 748I candidate, I think the Japanese companies are the most.

Time flies! Enjoy life!
User currently offlinePnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2321 posts, RR: 12
Reply 18, posted (7 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 26863 times:

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 12):
Only 6 ongoing campaigns? Of all the airlines in the world they can only pick 6 to talk to? That is sad.

Is a snide comment all you have to contribute? I suggest someone who has the term "cloudy" as part of your name you look at some clear skies with sunshine.

Everyone was so quick to jump on the A380 never going anywhere. Now it is in service the only question is can the seats be filled consistantly on them all to make economic sense. Will the individual program ever make money. Probably but it may take a while. It will probably bring Airbus prestige even if it isn't an excellent financial venture. Some car companies field high end sports models that are not really worth the investment per se but do wonders for the overall brand.

The 747-8i will be built and it will sell more copies than just LH. It will be a fine aircraft with a great interior. I can't wait to fly on one. Like with the A380 there will be a lot of people who have made foolish statements with egg on their faces who jumped to far too early conclusions. Will it have record sales. No. Does Boeing expect it to be a massive seller. No. Will it be a financial success (despite all the opinion on this subset of subculture of the traveling public) we will see, but I think Boeing knows something a few people on here don't.

User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9221 posts, RR: 14
Reply 19, posted (7 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 26782 times:

BA, SA)">UA, MH, SQ, CX, CI, CA, KE, JAL, ANA, NZ, QF, AI, Oasis, TG, SA)">NW are potential buyers.

AF, KL, SA, AC.........maybe

User currently offlineBrianDromey From Ireland, joined Dec 2006, 3981 posts, RR: 10
Reply 20, posted (7 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 26751 times:

The argument I heard for CX not taking the 748i was that they could have ordered i with the F. Fair point.

Basically what we know is that 6 airlines are looking at the 748i, and almost certainly the A380 as well. I suppose that means that 6 airlines are looking for aircraft of that size at this moment in time, and will likely place an order soon. These may, or may not be A380 customers looking to add additional orders, or new VLA customers. Either way, 60-100+ frames are likely to be ordered soon of 748/388 size.

I would not rule out VS and BA, just yet either, and UA or NW could be candidates too. But even if they are not and even if the 748i does not win any of the orders, i will not necessarily mean the end for the programme.

Exciting times!


User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (7 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 26711 times:

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 5):
That would depend entirely on whether the 748i actually wins any of those campaigns. wink

Isn't that the truth?

There's a definite possibility that some airlines might be interested in the 748i, and maybe that interest will perhaps be sufficient enough to result in an LOI or even and MOU.

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 11):
This is why I hate speculation. Why announce that there may be customers. Just announce the orders. Actions are louder than words.

Absolutely. If this were Airbus and Leahy was saying "maybe", I'd say the orders were already in the bag. When Boeing are this vague it doesn't seem to translate into actual orders.

I'm hoping Boeing can get more orders - I'm hoping it's a bit like the A350XWB - just waiting for the right time to get going, order wise.

I wonder if Boeing ever has or ever would approach Mr. Leahy to take over in sales for Boeing? ;-

[Edited 2008-02-25 09:15:09]

User currently offlineUAL777UK From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (7 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 26593 times:

If the merger frenzy ever dies down in the US and in particular UA dont nerge with anyone, based on the fact that UA have stated they "have a plan" to proceed as a stand alone airline, one would have thought that they are a strong candidate for the 748i...Boeing would of course love to "bag them", being based in Chicago as well. I just dont see the A380 ever joining UA's fleet.

User currently offlineRbgso From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 602 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (7 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 26557 times:

Quoting Khobar (Reply 21):
When Boeing are this vague it doesn't seem to translate into actual orders.

Boeing didn't make the statement. The ML analyst is the one quoted in the article, and these are his opinions.

User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31810 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (7 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 26536 times:
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No way PA will take the 747-8I. They could have transferred their 747-400 order over, but instead took the 777-300ER.

CI is a possibility, now that they have chosen the A350 for their medium widebody family.

I think OZ could be a possible 747-8I candidate, but they seem to be moving away from VLAs if the Wiki data is correct - sending back their 744s and going to a 77W and 77E on ICN-JFK and converting their 744Ms to 744BCFs. So perhaps the 787 family (-8, -9 and -10) is enough for them going forward?

JL could be a 747-8I customer since it would be fine for Japanese travelers who have been said to patronize them.

CA, I don't know. They have four 744s, but do they fly them on long-haul? (Wiki says they're used internally). If CA only flies 744Ms on long-haul, do they need any VLA at this time? Could they be like OZ and be happy with either the 77W or perhaps the 747-8I?

25 Post contains images ERAUgrad02 : Well considering that Airbus stated last week it expects to sell 30 A380's this year means that's alot of 747-8i's to be sold this year ...
26 Khobar : Okay, thanks for that. I didn't actually read the article so thank you for correcting me.
27 Post contains images Hamlet69 : These would be my guesses: Air India Jet Airways Etihad Airways Saudia China Airlines Virgin Atlantic Regards, Hamlet69
28 Zeke : Freighter sales do not translate into Pax sales, a bit if a trend is there already with a few operators. With the 744ERFs, that did not translate int
29 RJ111 : I'm sure there will be more 748I orders. It has really decent specs. When it gets into service more may come. Look what happend with the A380. Orders
30 Post contains images PW100 : Whoa, the list is growing fast . . . : China Eastern Air China JAL Asiana China Airlines Philippines Air India All Nippon Jet Airways Malaysian Airli
31 OldAeroGuy : While the potential customer list is long, it's the actual buyers who matter.
32 Bmacleod : You can take Air Canada off the list...77W is as big as they will need at least until 2012... Northwest is about to be swallowed by DL and they have
33 CHRISBA777ER : Sorry if this seems a little negative but.... Nope - very doubtful. No way. Never. Would have to be leased. Never in a million years. Nope - 77W is as
34 Pnwtraveler : Take off Air Canada for now. They won't order an A380 or B747-8l until they have a number of routes that will support them year round. They are adding
35 PW100 : Whoa, hold your horses please . . . These were not my suggestions, it's just a condensed accumulated version of what other posters were posting. They
36 SOBHI51 : But now they are more interested with Airbus than Boeing so why not A350's?
37 CHRISBA777ER : I know mate - no offence intended fella.
38 Post contains images Astuteman : Perhaps "sales campaigns" might refer to RFI's issued, compared to 20 airlines that were just being "talked to". Dunno There would seem to be more in
39 Post contains images EA772LR : Speculation maybe fun, but it sure does get old. I don't expect the 748i to garner very many more orders, but time will tell. Either way, with the 74
40 CHRISBA777ER : I dont think you can say that - Airbus just sold them a bunch of A320s IIRC but I'd be very surprised not to see a bunch of 787s in that lovely liver
41 YULWinterSkies : I can see Airbus also working hard with these 6. It's a matter of when, not if, China will need the A380, perhaps together with the 748. Others may b
42 RedFlyer : I'd say a 50% win rate on that particular list would be nothing less than spectacular. No doubt whatever the sales campaigns are, you can bet that Ai
43 Post contains images Khobar : Any chance you have an inside track on this???
44 Post contains images Astuteman : None whatsoever, sadly. I CAN tell you that not one of the aforementioned airlines is REMOTELY interested in buying an Astute Class submarine... Rega
45 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Proper coffee/keyboard interface moment there LOL
46 Post contains images SEPilot : What the heck is wrong with them anyway???
47 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Only thing in the world that is quieter than an A343 at cruise. Probably quicker to 1,000 feet as well.
48 Post contains images Stitch : I can see it now. Sir Richard will be sailing the HMS "Astute Virgin" (or better yet, name her after the fourth boat - "Audacious Virgin") with the s
49 CHRISBA777ER : I doubt the Upper Class pax will be happy about having to hot bunk, or that their IFE keeps making this really odd pinging noise... Still, the wardro
50 OldAeroGuy : Well, it would give them a chance to torpedo the competition.
51 Post contains images Stitch : Actually, the Astute class is large enough that everyone gets a bunk, so no more hot bunking. Though I suppose SRB could sell it as an option...
52 Post contains images AirbusA6 : The Astute submarine could be renamed the Whale Jet - oh sorry that name has been taken already And it's RR enginered too, so that'll help sales to BA
53 Post contains images Astuteman : That'll be "Bridge Fin" to you, sir (the conning tower's inside the fin......) That'll be no problem sir, as Astute is the first RN sub to do away wi
54 CHRISBA777ER : I thought the Astute was an SSN and not an SSBN - or do you mean the Tomahawks?'
55 Post contains images Astuteman : You guys are on it tonight....... Rgds
56 DAYflyer : Personally, while I am a huge Boeing fan, I think the 748i is a lame duck program which is going to see very lackluster sales at best and have a very
57 Manfredj : Mmmmm. I think your all in for a rude awakening. I can picture the posts just months from now, everyone hoo and haa'ing over numerous new 747 orders
58 SEPilot : I was referring to the airlines, not the submarines. Can't understand why any self-respecting airline doesn't want a submarine fleet as well.......
59 Post contains images Astuteman : My bad - sorry. That's certainly what has happened with the A380..... Whatever will be, will be. Regards
60 Post contains images Flysherwood : Really?!?! They are just flying off the shelf aren't they! How many sold in almost 8 years?
61 Post contains images EA772LR : Manfredj I hope you are so right and I am so wrong I would love nothing more than to see 50 748i orders by years end!
62 Art : Not sad if only... As pointed out earlier this sounds like rather good news for VLA sales in general (unless the airlines concerned are not consideri
63 JoeCanuck : Just don't buy them used from the British...or at least get a decent warranty. It seems there is a difference between diving and sinking...
64 RedChili : I'd say that the six sales campaigns probably include: All Nippon. We know that they put out an RFP for a VLA a couple of weeks ago. Air India. IIRC,
65 SKY1 : All 3, All Nippon, Air India and Thai are not going to operate the 2 biggest aircraft in the History. They will choose but I highly doubt NH, AI or TG
66 Post contains images Ikramerica : Who's wrong? It started at 20, it's been whittled down to 7 (6 in talks, 1 firmed) not counting VIPs. I have always said Boeing is likely to sell 75-
67 ERAUgrad02 : You think as low as our dollar is that it would get orders easier. I'm no economist though...lol.
68 CX flyboy : I definately see CX getting more 77Ws...up to a fleet of 50-60 of them in total. However the 747-400s are not going to around forever and there are t
69 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : Considering I figured the number would be lower, I'm quite impressed. I'd think that at least another 20-30 in the next 12 months would help put a li
70 Post contains images Azhobo : I would bet that the 748 outsells the A380 this year. Wishful thinking? I think not. HOBO
71 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : Well, for now, it is indeed wishful thinking. But no harm in wishing. -Dave
72 Post contains images TrijetsRMissed : I think if you add Cathay Pacific and China Airlines it would make very formidable list to the alleged campaigns. As the 748F & I get closer to certi
73 707lvr : The writer of the original article ditched his/her credibility with the first sentence, that BA shares were up "amid upbeat analyst comments" and the
74 Zeke : You have just mentioned 2 airports where the A380 has already operated into. Why on earth would they want to do that ? They could have done that 5-10
75 KC135TopBoom : The bottom line is this whole story could be simply a guess. Boeing, Airbus, or any airline have yet to confirm any of this. This is the opinion of R
76 Post contains images Astuteman : That's the usual response from Canadian flagged posters, Joe. Is that a consequence of an intimate involvement in the operation and maintenance of th
77 Post contains images LifelinerOne : Do they need bigger than the B77W? If your opinion includes the freighter as well, I think you could be right. That's what everybody thinks, but he w
78 JoeCanuck : Ok...I've asked around...my sub comment really was funny...it got laughs and not pity laughs either. Also, the bbc reported the same problems.
79 Zeke : The Dutch are known for building things to keep water out.
80 Alessandro : Depends on the delivery time, can Boeing start to deliver B748i soon enough compared with the A380.
81 Post contains images LifelinerOne : LOL But someday will lose that fight against water... Than it will be good to have a large fleet of KLM subs! Cheers!
82 Burkhard : "Epstein also said ht expects 2008 to be a 'big year' for Boeing's 747-8 Intercontinental aircraft. He said there appeared to be 6 ongoing active sale
83 Post contains images KC135TopBoom : I missed that. How many A-380s have sold in 2008? That could be a tough question to answer. the B-747-8F is due fro EIS in 4Q 2009, and the B-747-8I
84 Post contains images Zeke : Oh really, has that delay been announced ?
85 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : For my money, the Upholder Class of SSK's are technically the finest of their ilk anywhere in the World - when they work. That they have a less than
86 Koruman : Er, no actually. Qantas CEO Geoff Dixon describes the 747-8 as a "warmed-up 40 year old product" and has made quite clear that he's not interested. T
87 Parapente : I think the only active sales campaign going on right now for the 748i is from LH to - Boeing!!
88 Post contains images MCIGuy : But the 748F sales alone justify the program. I don't think Boeing ever planned on selling a ton of 748i's, but also knew that the freighter sales wo
89 CX flyboy : If the A380 can b handled regularly at MNL then I apologise. I was told otherwise by the GMO. As for integrating freighter and pax pilots, isn't that
90 Astuteman : We'll have to wait until the Airbus February spreadsheet gets issued, but I understand that 4 have been firmed up for Grupo Marsans. Boeing DID say t
91 Rheinwaldner : In the race between the two subtypes that matches each other (789 and A358) the Airbus has won roughly the same number of orders altough being mercha
92 United Airline : When did they say that? Didn't they sell more than 20 to LH?
93 Post contains links Scbriml : Yes, the number Leahy gave recently suggested the GM order for 4 had been firmed. Then there's also another 3 for Korean. http://www.airbus.com/en/pr
94 United Airline : Add PAL and VS to the list. I still believe these airlines will order the B 747-8 one day. Let's see. SQ's move might be a way to negotiate a better
95 Post contains images CygnusChicago : I'd be careful with that prediction. If I recall correctly, last year Zvezda confidently and repeatedly predicted that 2007 was the year total 748 sa
96 Post contains images LifelinerOne : Eventually, they will, which in that case will surpass the B787 just as the B787 surpassed the A330. I've said it before, but by Airbus' move to the
97 Post contains images Astuteman : To be fair, he was presuming that TOTAL A380 sales at the time would be zero.... Regards
98 Columba : Thai and Malaysian are two strong contenders, I belive Thai is looking at 8 aircraft, I would also not rule out Air India !!
99 MBJ2000 : Then why bother with the 748-I at all?? I think Koruman is right, Boeing tried the same trick that didn't work for Airbus with the proposed "A338-I".
100 Jtdieffen : In a sense, yes, they tried the same trick, but I'd say the rules of this game are somewhat different. Start with the VLA market. Regardless of its c
101 Manfredj : Calm down...this is the way the industry works. The 747 is a proven aircraft, the one that BEGAN the VLA pax revolution. It's economical, reliable, a
102 OldAeroGuy : Interesting comments, but here are a few questions. 1) Do you make frequent trips to the Everett facility that allows you to comment on the state of
103 Stitch : Because with the 747-8F built, offering a new passenger version was a small incremental cost. One also needs to look at Boeing's widebody product lin
104 Post contains images Astuteman : Don't think that was where the time went, somehow...... Regards
105 Post contains images DEVILFISH : Fiscal position and receivership could have been big factors in that. PR are on record saying that they had no plans for the 748i. This was just befo
106 BestWestern : What about the opportunity cost?
107 OldAeroGuy : Single deck airplanes work better for the balikbayan boxes than deck and half or double deck airplanes. The single deckers have more cargo volume per
108 Anonms : Possible opportunity costs: 787-10 development, larger 777 derivative development, ceding the VLA market to Airbus and pocketing the money.
109 Post contains images Flysherwood : Just because Airbus can't sell an F version of the A388 doesn't mean that 748I & F cannot be counted together for the program total. They have alread
110 Stitch : Boeing can't really raise the MTOW of the 777-300ER because of wing and undercarriage loading issues, as well as likely the single-engine out issue a
111 SEPilot : Both of your operations would have cost considerably more, and ceding the VLA market to Airbus would enable them to make the kind of profits that Boe
112 United Airline : Does PR have plans to return to Europe? LHR? FRA? Takes forever........ Guess this will never happen
113 Stitch : Boeing might have been able to build a 787-10HGW for another billion with new engines, new undercarriage, new wingbox, and perhaps a revised wing. Th
114 Koruman : I am saying that 1) They are highly unlikely to ever sell six more aircraft, 2) With only a single order (LH) for passenger aircraft the whole 747-8
115 Stitch : I'm not bullish on the 747-8I, but I think they can sell at least six more 747VIPs. And with $2 billion or more in profit already, why would Boeing w
116 Post contains images Flysherwood : Why in the heck would it have to be cancelled? They also have 5 BBJ's ordered and a host of RFI's (6) that they are actively working on. Quite frankl
117 Post contains images Flysherwood : Because LH is some crappy little airline and it doesn't know what it is doing! Let's see, they only have just had another record profit year. If you
118 BestWestern : Stitch - we are having a 1+1=3 moment. We dont know the LH revenues to boeing We dont know the unique production costs We dont know the unique design
119 Koruman : Concorde initially had orders from Pan Am, TWA, JAL, United, American, Lufthansa, CAAC, Air Canada, Singapore Airlines, Iran Air, Qantas far, far mor
120 Ikramerica : They are unlikely not to... The the USAF alone. 2 for Air Force 1, 4+ for other uses. I would also expect a few more VIP sales. Total VIP sales 15-20
121 Koruman : Is it really economically sensible to keep a production line going for such disastrously low numbers, at a time when there is a huge backlog for the
122 SEPilot : The 748i is going to be built on the same production line as the 748F, which is selling quite well. It is absolutely worth keeping the production lin
123 Post contains images Stitch : Airbus says they can build an A380-800 for $100 million. Boeing has been building 747s for four decades, so I would expect that would be the highest
124 Post contains images RedChili : They're not even trying to sell an A380F. You can do it, of course, but you will only fool yourself. The freighter market and the market for pax-VLAs
125 Jtdieffen : Highly doubtful. Remember, there are also five VIP orders, and the potential for LH to even order more. This is not comparable to the cancellation of
126 Post contains images Stitch : I harbor no illusions that LH would not have bought the 747-400 or 747-400ER. I do harbor the illusion that if Boeing had launched the 747 VIP using
127 RedChili : Without the 748i, they would probably have split the order 50/50 for additional A380s and A346s instead. Concerning the other 748 sales, I agree that
128 Thegeek : That assumes that the 747 production line could be easily converted to 737s. I highly doubt this. I'd expect that converting the line would be more s
129 Koruman : I've been "stitched" up. My point is to compare orders to orders, deliveries to deliveries. 13 airlines ordered Concorde intially, 1 has ordered the
130 Jtdieffen : Not to get caught up on the details, but there are actually six customers that have ordered the 748i; five VIP customers (totaling six frames) and LH
131 Azhobo : I also predicted the 748 last year would beat A380. Missed it by that > < much (21-748 to 23-a380s). But my guess for this year is that the A380 low
132 Post contains images LifelinerOne : Officially, no money has been put into the A380-900 as it isn't an official version of the A380. They are talking about it, but there's nothing done
133 Ikramerica : 75 orders so far. 25 a year for 8 years. Some additional F orders beyond then. 300 total. Disaster? That's 1/2 the 744s in 1/2 the time. 744s have be
134 Scbriml : They weren't trying to sell it, they were selling it (and not doing a bad job of it - 27 sales to 4 customers).
135 RedChili : As Scbriml said, they actually sold 27 firm freighters. Unfortunately, due to the delays and the CATIA debacle and all those problems, the F was canc
136 Ikramerica : 25 sales a year of F+I for 8 years. Mostly F, but some I. What is so hard to understand? It's not unreasonable to think Boeing will sell 200+ more 74
137 RedChili : It's your prediction for the coming eight years? I was confused because in reply 133 you wrote, "75 orders so far. 25 a year for 8 years." I was thin
138 Post contains images RedFlyer : Don't forget the caveat "in my opinion". It's not a new model. It's a derivative. And at that it's actually the same model as an existing one (-8F) t
139 Stitch : It has not been popular with heavy cargo carriers, at least so far, but since Airbus had developed the A380-800F in parallel with the A380-800, there
140 Post contains images Scbriml : Although less popular than the 748F, it was still selling. Exactly. Those "less-than-stellar" A380F sales were supporting the A380 program in exactly
141 RedChili : That was surely one reason why the 748F got more orders than the 380F, but it was not the reason why it was cancelled/postponed. The reason for the c
142 Ktachiya : Yeah but its changing. I mean JL has some routes that need the large capacities largely since NRT is so slot restricted. And considering, its a rathe
143 Post contains images Scouseflyer : You owe me a new keyboard as I've just spat my drink into it with the bit about the 748 ripening I would agree though that we could see 30 of each pl
144 EA772LR : Pretty bold statement. You must be psychic. Last I checked the 748I isn't terribly different than the 748F...and with close-to or just-over 100 frame
145 Jfk777 : The A380 may the great for airlines from countries with surging economies and clogged airports(LHR). Many countries have small 747 fleets and less nee
146 AirbusA6 : That Boeing sold 40 747 ERFs (+ many recent 400F orders) and only 6 passenger 747 ERs does suggest that the market for freighter versions has been muc
147 CygnusChicago : Restarting production after a hiatus would require reconstituting the supply chain for the "i" model, which is different enough from the "f" to be a
148 Brendows : Just to bring in some figures: the A380F got 10 orders after the launch of the 748F, and the other 17 firm orders for the A380F were firmed up more t
149 RedFlyer : You lost me on that one. It's the same production line and, I read somewhere, 95+% commonality. Even the long-lead order items would be the same.
150 TrijetsRMissed : And those CI airframes were from a 2002 order I believe. Since then, only the LH order and some VIP 747's have been sold, so I am quite surprised Boe
151 Jtdieffen : Not to be overly picky here, but I think the process was a little more scientific than straight assumption. There's still a long way to go yet before
152 Post contains images Astuteman : I wouldn't wish any ill on the 748i, and it would (personally) be a sad day if that part of the 748 programme were pulled. Any big plane is a "good"
153 Zeke : Considering it is a new wing, engine, engine pylons, landing gear, brakes, and interior, I do not see how your statement could be correct.
154 RedFlyer : Well then, that blows to pieces prior claims by some that the A330 and A340 are the same plane given their commonality, including production line.
155 Stitch : All of those parts should be common between the 747-8I and 747-8F. Only interior fittings (walls, bins, lighting, etc.) and fuselage forward of the w
156 Flysherwood : Of course the A380 is not selling that hotly right now either. Maybe it is a case of airlines being afraid of ANY VLA.
157 Post contains images Astuteman : The A380 appears to be on track for 30 sales this year on top of 30 last year. Might not be massive, but its not too shabby. The 748i should be a low
158 CygnusChicago : I'd add all wiring harnesses (aren't they being run in a different location in the "i"?) and IFE systems to that, While I concur that it is not a hug
159 Ikramerica : If you look at the history of the 747-100/200, sales improved in the mid-70s, so history does show some hope there. But even in the early 80s, there
160 Stitch : I expect the wiring harnesses will be run down to the main deck directly aft of the cockpit because of the difference in the SUD lengths. On the main
161 AirbusA6 : I agree that the assumption seems a bit curious, I guess Boeing is hoping the replacement cycle for the early 744s is coming up which will push passe
162 Post contains images TrijetsRMissed : Yes, I'm sure they put more thought into it than a straight assumption, such as 744 renewal cycles. I am generalizing, but history doesn't lie, what'
163 RedChili : I got a Boeing press release by email today: According to the timeline in Zeke's reply number 84, design was supposed to be 100 percent finished by no
164 Stitch : As of December they said the program was still on track. *shrug*
165 Scipio : I don't want to be annoying, but on July 8 last year they said the 787 was on track. It seems hard to believe that they can have a first flight by th
166 Zeke : FYI that is from a Boeing presentation, not something of my doing. I am somewhat cynical these days, I have a lot of trouble believing what any of th
167 Post contains images Scipio : That was understood. I was not going to hold you accountable for the ambiguities The only point is that, from that presentation, it is hard to judge
168 Tdscanuck : Design and design release are totally different things. The design is "we're going to build this part like this." The design release is "Here is the
169 Post contains images EA772LR : I wonder if when the 748I takes to the skies, and we get the numbers, if more customers will hop on...
170 Stitch : Boeing still seems confident they can land a few more, but it might very well be a case of airlines waiting to see what the actual plane brings to the
171 Post contains images Flysherwood : They sure aren't helping their credibility these days, are they?
172 Astuteman : This seems to have happened to some previous programmes, so it may well be possible. Regards
173 SEPilot : I wouldn't be surprised if the airlines are also awaiting real world results from the A380. The economics of the 748 probably inspire a bit more conf
174 Ikramerica : 772LR was one of those. Not that sales have taken off, but it seems everyone basically took a wait and see approach there. Sales of the 77W also took
175 Zeke : They were really niche aircraft which had captured their markets before EIS.
176 Stitch : Well the 764ER was just out-classed by the A332. As to the 744ER, QF was the only airline that needed it which could afford it. UA needed it, but did
177 RJAF : Is there any chance that any of these 'have nots' Arab airlines order one or two 747-8Is in the near future? All the airlines below were once or are c
178 Dennys : Sorry , i am late , but please please , The Lord make this 747-8I sellings START now !!!! I love 747 , and want to keep the right standard for this Ai
179 Columba : I don´t think that they are still any surprises to expect. There are three A380 delivered and are in airline service, the test programme involved so
180 Post contains images Ikramerica : I kind of agree there. I'd like to see more A380 and 748i sales both so the world isn't turned into one of generic looking twins of basically the sam
181 NA : I fully agree. The ongoing order hausse for midsized twinjets (A332 up to 773ER/A350-1000) starts to make me fear for the worst. Horrible to think how
182 Post contains images Ikramerica : It'll be like spotting at IAH... "Oh look a CO737. Oh look, a CO737. Oh look a CO737. Oh wow, a CO757. Oh, no that's just a CO737 with a weird glare.
183 Post contains images Columba : Well I always thought TXL is a rather boring place but at least AB has both the A320 and the 737 which makes it a little bit more exciting than CO737
184 Ikramerica : One good thing about spotting at IAH is the Anatovs that come in, and the World Airways fleet. And now of course EK joins the one a days from LH, AF a
185 BlueShamu330s : Does Qantas recent public declaration of zero interest in the 747-8i reduce the number of campaigns to five, or were they a possibility only in the ey
186 Post contains images Stitch : Uh, they bought 20 and could take 20 more...
187 Post contains images BlueShamu330s : My bad Stitch; see corrective edit above. Proof indeed that only the fairer sex can multitask effectively Shamu
188 Ikramerica : I do not believe QF was ever in the running, as they have committed fully to the A380 with exercised options, purchases, and new options. The same is
189 Post contains images TrijetsRMissed : Indeed, and it already applies to many airports in the present. Just think how much more interesting spotting was ten years ago. Several older models
190 Post contains images Columba : I believe they were not part of the sales campaigns by Boeing as they never were really interested in the 747-8. I expect that the six airlines are f
191 PM : I haven't ploughed through this whole thread but is Thailand no longer on the list?
192 Post contains images Columba : Sorry, I forgot about Thai
193 Post contains images Ikramerica : That's why I just said East Asian, as it covers southeast and east and northeast even. They are all east...
194 Pbb152 : BA currently flies 20x weekly to IAH (dropping to 2x daily when they move the service to LHR at the end of the month) and AF flies 13x weekly to IAH.
195 BestWestern : A month on from this "ongoing sales campaign" thread, can any of the carriers be eliminated? Are any closer to signing?
196 ZuluAviator994 : It's Unfortunate that the 747-8 isn't doing as well as planned. The A380 is just more appealing I guess, definately to the public at least. I'm just h
197 Stitch : If you're going to operate a VLA for 20-30 years, the A380 is the more logical choice...
198 BestWestern : I think I have to agree with you Stitch. The 380 is now flying and reliable. With the 748i still on the drawing board, and with some uncertainty as t
199 FlyingClrs727 : Why would anyone want to order either the 747-8I or the A380 right now? The A380 is just in limited production at this point, and only two are in rev
200 EGNR : Because they require a high capacity passenger carrying airliner, an airliner with greater capcity than the 777-300ER. Limited production, yes, but b
201 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : They are ramping up to full capacity as we speak and the deliveries going to start coming thick and fast fairly soon. SQ has three in revenue service
202 Post contains images Ikramerica : This is not right. 99.9% means one tech delay/cancellation in 1000 flights. There have been 3 (+ 2 additional due to the plane "not being where it sh
203 Post contains links Zvezda : Dispatch reliability is measured in terms of "delays beyond 15 minutes of scheduled departure related to maintenance, repair or technical anomalies."
204 CHRISBA777ER : Typo - my bad. We worked it out in the other thread. See above. We worked it out in the other thread. Do a search. Its considerably more than 90%.
205 Kanebear : Try spotting in CRP. Wow. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Oh look, an ERD. Nothing. Nothing. Hey there's a WN733. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. *yaw
206 Ken777 : I would be surprised if Boeing sells many pax versions before there is some flight data and actual performance can be projected. If Boeing exceeds exp
207 Art : OK. Source? If you can't provide a source, I will have to assume that your manifest dislike of the aircraft that you insist on calling the "whalejet"
208 Post contains images Zvezda : Reply number? Thanks for posting a link. It's been a few years since I found what I was looking for using this site's search feature. My mistake. I s
209 Tdscanuck : You might want to mention that to all the people who bought the 787. Tom.
210 Threepoint : There is no reply number. He meant literally, see above. As in right above where he wrote that.
211 Post contains links CHRISBA777ER : Zvezda, Try here. SQ A380 Grounded Again (by Victor009 Mar 25 2008 in Civil Aviation) Hope this helps. Rgds, CM
212 Burkhard : Now the 787 is cancelled, airlines will get half 747-8i as compensations. Makes more than 400...
213 Post contains images Teme82 : That was good April's fool joke, I see that you bought it straight away
214 Dennys : TO BURKHARD § THANKS SIR !!! I DO WISH THE 747-8 SHALL BE SOLD ! I am fed up with ALL THOSE 77W 330 twins !!! Kind regards dennys
215 BestWestern : nope - it got it by the nobody is arsed to buy it syndrome. If the 717 was such a great aircraft MD would still be in business
216 Ikramerica : But we were only using cancelations or long delays, when a "delay" is 15 minutes or more. The true number is calculated as: Landings-Delays / Landing
217 Moo : Who gets to make this stuff up?
218 Glareskin : Let's hope it is going to be a clone. But I'm afraid it is going to get the ugly nose. Also the disappearing of the Jumbolino (AVRO) quad is a loss f
219 Post contains images TrijetsRMissed : Haha, riiight, like Boeing made as much of an effort to sell the 717 as they did the 736 or any other "7 series." Now there's a good April Fools joke
220 Post contains images Ikramerica : I don't know. But I looked it up. But funny thing is, it's just a more convoluted way to say: On-Time flights / total scheduled flights x 100. Who ca
221 Columba : You speak out of my heart !! Thankfully some airlines replace them with Q400s, a shoulder wing turboprop and no EJet, A320 clone.
222 BestWestern : Six weeks on, and no sign of an order, nor an EIS.
223 Ikramerica : Whatever. TG just announced they are close to deciding between more A388s and the 748. And as for "no sign of EIS" that's garbage. The plane is progr
224 Post contains links RedFlyer : Well, Bloomberg had this article on Thursday: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aQ3BTexUZNhs Don't know the timeframe for the expec
225 RedChili : I take it you also assume that Boeing has problems selling freighters, if you think they are willing to give aggressive discounts to fill the product
226 RedFlyer : Good analysis, but while the freighter version will hold its value given its market position, why should that prevent Boeing from pricing the pax mod
227 TP727 : Hope you are all doing fine, I have not been around for some time but remember reading last week or the week before, that JJ is doing the math for eit
228 Zvezda : The reason is that both the passenger and freighter variants are built on the same line for about the same cost. Effectively, they compete for produc
229 TrijetsRMissed : Boeing can always sell 748Fs. Those orders won't be going to anyone else, and those slots won't disappear. The 748I has a smaller window of opportuni
230 RedFlyer : In general that would be true, but only if production was at maximum capacity. Boeing could sell those production slots for a higher price by buildin
231 Zvezda : That would be true in theory if the cost of modulating the production rate were very low, but it is not true in practice because it is very expensive
232 RedFlyer : Correct, but obviously there's a point in the demand curve where the cost of production modulation falls relative to the additional cost savings and/
233 RedChili : No, the F is slightly higher. The F is 294-297 million (average of 295.5), and the I is 285.5-300 million (average of 293). Hence why I asked you if
234 Astuteman : With its competitor experiencing a 2 year delay, AND an extremely advantageous exchange rate, AND the luxury of production line economies of scale pr
235 Art : I see no 748-I competitor arriving before Y3 and therefore no need to gain orders before a competing product does, so I don't see any imperative to pr
236 Columba : TG is definitely one of the six campaigns. VS is another. They are looking at a replacement for their 747s based in Gatwick and the 747-8I is part of
237 Stitch : It will no longer be produced and the line will become freighter-only as it has since 2005.
238 Astuteman : Yep. That's what they'll do. Good answer, my friend. Rgds
239 SEPilot : Since both models get built on the same line, I don't see that it will make a difference. I expect that Boeing will still offer the 748i as long as t
240 Post contains links Columba : I found the article regarding VS and the 747-8I: http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1192694699.html If the rumor is true that VS is also looking to l
241 BlueSky1976 : He predicted the 787 delay and won his bet with Stephen Udvar-Hazy. Meanwhile, the delay grew from 6 to 9 months and looks like it will grow further.
242 SEPilot : I doubt that this will influence the VLA decision either way; my suspicion is that the A-380 has the upper hand here, much as I'd like to see the 748
243 Burkhard : Will Virgin be able to fill 16 A380?
244 SEPilot : If they can fill 10 748's and 6 A380's, the jump to 16 A380's isn't all that big.
245 Columba : I think one thing you have to keep in mind is that these aircraft will be for the Gatwick fleet. You have to consider the question if Gatwick will be
246 Post contains links A342 : You should have a look at the following article: Boeing fights 1% weight growth on 747-8 So they expect to sell only about 60 additional -8is? That's
247 Stitch : That is still 85 more planes then they would have sold if they only offered the 747-400 and 747-400ER...
248 A342 : I see your point, and while I assume that they could sell more 77Ws instead, I still think that 85 passenger aircraft is a low number. Heck, with the
249 Zvezda : All of the airlines that have solicited bids from Boeing for the 747-8I have also solicited bids from Airbus for a competing VLA.
250 Teme82 : That airlines would be LH alone?
251 BestWestern : With Boeing only expecting to sell 85 748i's will this result in lower resale?[Edited 2008-04-08 13:55:13]
252 SEPilot : Used 748's will always be in big demand for freighters; which is not guaranteed for A380's.
253 ERAUgrad02 : I think some more sales come out of these talks. Maybe 10 minimum but its more orders of one of my favorite airplanes. I don't think they'd spin this
254 Columba : Not really the aircraft that competed in the LH evaluation against the 747-8I was the 77W. LH already had the A380 on order as they ordered the 747-8
255 Teme82 : Yes but the only airliner that has firm 748I order is LH and they have the A388 order too... So is there another airliner out there that has firm 748
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