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How Much Longer Will The A330 Line Stay Open?  
User currently offlineIrishpower From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 384 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10222 times:

Now that EADS/Northrop won the Air Force tanker deal and assuming that the decision isn't reversed, how much longer will the A330 now stay open. I was figuring that once the 787 and A350XWB are in full production EADS would slowly start phasing out the A330. Now with this new contract and the press saying that the 175 orders could increase to as many as 500 over time I'm wondering how long A330 production will stay open?

Could it be that in 20 years EADS will have shut down A330 production in Europe and all the remaining planes will be for the USAF which will be made in Alabama?

38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMOBflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1209 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10200 times:



Quoting Irishpower (Thread starter):

Could it be that in 20 years EADS will have shut down A330 production in Europe and all the remaining planes will be for the USAF which will be made in Alabama?

That would be nice.....  Smile


User currently offlineBuzzaway From Belgium, joined Dec 2007, 75 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10154 times:

If the decision is not reversed, I would guess that around 2018 when A350XWB production is at full strength the remaining A33X orders will be assembled at the Mobile plant. They will probably be mostly, if not only, freighters anyway.

Does anyone know Airbus' plans for the assembly of the A350XWB? If they will be assembled on the A33X/A34X line, the transfer could happen much sooner...


User currently offlineMrBrightSide From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 202 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 9922 times:

This actually speaks great news for people in Alabama. I am very glad that state proved its manufacturing muscle and will output planes as well. Interestingly enough, I did not saw that anyone on this forum noticed that AL seems to be the state for European manufacturers. Guess what BMW and Mercedes cars are coming from Alabama - and yes, they're manufactured there for the whole world...

Congrats to EADS and Northrop on this contract - and most of all, to people of Mobile, AL. As a European currently nesting in CA, good to see more European projects winning US bids. At the end of the day, what matters is that new jobs are created and that higher-quality products win.

As far as the 330 line, my take would be that Alabama will take all remaining orders of 330F and passanger planes, and then just convert to future military tanker/civil freighter based off A350XWB platform.



There's no better way to travel than fly (shameless rip of LH's slogan ;-)
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29680 posts, RR: 84
Reply 4, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 9907 times:
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Quoting Irishpower (Thread starter):
Now that EADS/Northrop won the Air Force tanker deal and assuming that the decision isn't reversed, how much longer will the A330 now stay open


It likely depends on how much longer passenger A330s sell. I expect Boeing is now going to go after it with a vengeance. And the end of the 767 program allows them to use Building 40-24 for 787 production to support a second line to generate more sales thanks to earlier deliveries opening up. Every 787 Boeing can sell is one less A330 Airbus can, so as the A330 is said to have "killed" the 767, so could the 787 "kill" the A330 - as well as bury it upside down at a crossroads and salt the earth over it's grave.  tombstone   devil 

Seriously, the 787 will supplant the A330. The A330 could soldier on like the 767 with a dozen to a score of orders and deliveries a year, but I expect Airbus will want to use that space to support the A350XWB's production. The balance of A330-200Fs will likely be built at Mobile along with the KC-45A and it is possible Airbus will move the KC-30B and A330 MRTT production there, as well.


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8642 posts, RR: 75
Reply 5, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 9848 times:

I would think sometime before the A350 goes into production, if they want to use the same line to produce the A350, you would have needed to move all the A330 production to the US.

Some changes to the line may not be too far off http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...iationdaily&id=news/A330F02298.xml

[Edited 2008-02-29 17:10:36]


We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineAither From South Korea, joined Oct 2004, 843 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 9787 times:

AFAIK the A350 should be built on the same line as the A330/A340.
But with the tanker deal + the very strong A330 backlog + the fact that compared to the 787 or the A350 it performs well on medium haul ops .... I would not be surprised to see both A330s and A350s be assembled in parallel for quite some time !



Never trust the obvious
User currently offlineUzimmermann From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 61 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 9755 times:



Quoting MrBrightSide (Reply 3):
Guess what BMW and Mercedes cars are coming from Alabama

As far I know BMW has a factory in Spartanburg, South Carolina only, which is where the Z4, X6 and X5 are built.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21416 posts, RR: 60
Reply 8, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 9674 times:



Quoting MrBrightSide (Reply 3):
Guess what BMW and Mercedes cars are coming from Alabama - and yes, they're manufactured there for the whole world...

It's only MB, and they have had quality issues from this plant since the first ML. The SUVs are still quite unreliable, compared to their sedans built in Germany. I do not know the reason.

Quoting Uzimmermann (Reply 7):
As far I know BMW has a factory in Spartanburg, South Carolina only, which is where the Z4, X6 and X5 are built.

That is correct. The X's and the Z's are built there.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineIrishpower From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 384 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 9525 times:

Wow, can you imagine an EADS plant in Boeing's backyard building a USAF tanker.

I agree that the 787 and A350XWB will teounce the A330 in due time but it is an amazing scenario none the less.

I think in the long run, losing the bid and closing down the 767 line will make Boeing stronger. They can now focus on the 787 and eventually the Y3 at the Everett plant.


User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8202 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 9517 times:

Hyundai builds its Sonata and Santa Fe vehicles in Alabama. Both are known as very high quality.

User currently offlineMrBrightSide From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 202 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 9437 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8):
It's only MB, and they have had quality issues from this plant since the first ML. The SUVs are still quite unreliable, compared to their sedans built in Germany. I do not know the reason.

Actually, only the first generation ML had major issues, and their sedans went through hell and loosing mkt share after a certain ousted exec said that Merc invested in quality "well enough".

New-gen ML is a really fine car, as well as the R-class. R-Class is truth to be told, too big for me (too American  Wink)

Quoting Uzimmermann (Reply 7):
As far I know BMW has a factory in Spartanburg, South Carolina only, which is where the Z4, X6 and X5 are built.

That is correct. The X's and the Z's are built there.
[/quote]

My bad, I misplaced BMW's fab with Hyundai's one. Santa Fe and ML are really fine built cars, and I expect for A330-based tanker to continue the tradition.



There's no better way to travel than fly (shameless rip of LH's slogan ;-)
User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 28
Reply 12, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 9388 times:



Quoting Irishpower (Reply 9):
I think in the long run, losing the bid and closing down the 767 line will make Boeing stronger. They can now focus on the 787 and eventually the Y3 at the Everett plant.

Oddly enough, I find myself agreeing with this thought. Boeing can free-up much needed resources for current and upcoming programs.



Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 7929 posts, RR: 5
Reply 13, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 9363 times:

At Toulouse, I think the A330 production will start winding down once the A350 production ramping up. I wouldn't be surprised that EADS will eventually even do much of the component production for the A330-200F/KC-45 near the Mobile, AL final assembly line, essentially using refurbished A330 production jigs imported from Europe.

User currently offlineDesediez From Germany, joined Oct 2006, 79 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 8742 times:

Has anybody some information if Airbus will build something like the Beluga using the A340 as base to have a transporter with a bit more range. I think this would be usefull for the feeding of this new line...  confused 

User currently offlineR2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2497 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 8402 times:



Quoting Irishpower (Thread starter):
Could it be that in 20 years EADS will have shut down A330 production in Europe and all the remaining planes will be for the USAF which will be made in Alabama?

No need to wait that long! I expect that to be happening in ten years max, once the A330 pax line has dried up and the A350 line is running at full rate. In any case, the sooner a final decision is made (there will surely be a protest), the sooner EADS/NG can execute their plans for MOB, and the sooner A330 production could be moved there.

Quoting Buzzaway (Reply 2):
Does anyone know Airbus' plans for the assembly of the A350XWB? If they will be assembled on the A33X/A34X line, the transfer could happen much sooner...

I think Airbus plans to build a new facility for the XWB. Keep in mind that the A330/340 line is booked full through 2010 as things stand today. This would likely overlap with the A350 (a new FAL is something you don't set up overnight).

Quoting Desediez (Reply 14):
Has anybody some information if Airbus will build something like the Beluga using the A340 as base to have a transporter with a bit more range. I think this would be usefull for the feeding of this new line...

Someone posted a photo of such an A340-Beluga concept on here (Zeke?). This is one of the issues I brought up some time ago - the logistics of a FAL at MOB . You're no longer a short 1-2hour Beluga hop away from everywhere like in TLS. I assume that it will likely be done by ship though. I think the tankers are to be built at 12 per year, which could be managed by ship. Of course, if the A332F is a success, then they may have to think of some faster way to feed the line.


User currently offlineBrianDromey From Ireland, joined Dec 2006, 3901 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 8168 times:

I think the big issue here is not the 767 loosing or the 330 winning. Although these thing s are important. I think the big thing here is CASHFLOW. EADS/GN now has an almost guaranteed inflow of cash for the next 20 years. SOme of this will be used to father develop the KC-45A etc, and not all the profits will go to EADS. The key thing here though is EADS, and by extension Airbus, has a stable cashflow it can borrow against to bankroll the 320 successor, and reduce the leverage of existing programmes (XWB & 380). Boeing will go after this contract because it provides the benefits are even larger for it, as almost all revenue will land in Boeing's bank account, and could have funded Y1/Y3. This also creates a massive rival for Boeing in Space and defense. Good for the USAF and armed forces around the world, bad for the bottom line at Boeing. Still, Boeing knew the 767 could not compete with the KC-30. The jailed executives prove it.

Brian.



Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7027 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 8058 times:



Quoting Irishpower (Thread starter):
Could it be that in 20 years EADS will have shut down A330 production in Europe and all the remaining planes will be for the USAF which will be made in Alabama?

I think as soon as the first A350 rolls out this will be the case.
A350s and A380s in Toulouse
A320 replacement in Hamburg
A330F/A330 and KC 45 in Mobile
A320s in China
A400M in Seville



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9835 posts, RR: 96
Reply 18, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 7912 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
Seriously, the 787 will supplant the A330. The A330 could soldier on like the 767 with a dozen to a score of orders and deliveries a year

Funnily enough, if by any chance, the advent of the KC45 contract persuades GE/EADS to go ahead and stick the GEnx on the A330, it could soldier on for some considerable time as a heavily discounted, but viable alternative to those who don't need the full range capabilities of the 787-8.
Perhaps with A350, and then A320RS to get their heads around, it might do Airbus as an interim in the 230-250 seat range (in -200 guise), sitting just under the A350-800...
For that matter, An A333 similarly re-engined might make a superb 787-3....  bouncy   Smile

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 13):
At Toulouse, I think the A330 production will start winding down once the A350 production ramping up. I wouldn't be surprised that EADS will eventually even do much of the component production for the A330-200F/KC-45 near the Mobile, AL final assembly line, essentially using refurbished A330 production jigs imported from Europe.

As A330's of various types are now likely to be produced for a timespan measured in decades, and in many hundreds, it makes economic sense (to me) to locate the whole shooting match in Alabama, at some appropriate time.
For what its worth, many of the "components" are US sourced anyway.
It's only really the primary structures that are predominantly "European".

Regards


User currently offlineVfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 3904 posts, RR: 5
Reply 19, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 7694 times:



Quoting MrBrightSide (Reply 3):
Congrats to EADS and Northrop on this contract - and most of all, to people of Mobile, AL. As a European currently nesting in CA, good to see more European projects winning US bids. At the end of the day, what matters is that new jobs are created and that higher-quality products win.

So I hope the USAF will have better luck with their US-built European kit than I had with my US-built BMW a while ago. Talk about quality issues....  Smile


User currently offlineBHMBAGLOCK From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2698 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 7403 times:



Quoting MrBrightSide (Reply 3):
I did not saw that anyone on this forum noticed that AL seems to be the state for European manufacturers. Guess what BMW and Mercedes cars are coming from Alabama - and yes, they're manufactured there for the whole world...

As noted by others, BMW is a couple states over. We also have Honda here. In fact, they announced their third model to be produced in AL on Friday morning, now they build the Odyssey, Pilot, and soon the Ridgeline. Toyota;s truck engine plant is also here.

As far as your statement regarding European manufacturers in AL, it's dead on. Here are a few off the top of my head:

GKN
Thyssen-Krupp
Kommerling
Mercedes plus numerous Euro parts suppliers associated with them
BAE
Siemens
Meggitt

Quoting MrBrightSide (Reply 11):
Actually, only the first generation ML had major issues, and their sedans went through hell and loosing mkt share after a certain ousted exec said that Merc invested in quality "well enough".

New-gen ML is a really fine car, as well as the R-class. R-Class is truth to be told, too big for me (too American )

GL is also made at the Vance plant. When the Cayenne came out, Porsche came very close to a joint use agreement with Mercedes for the plant. When, and if they do build a US plant, I'd expect AL to be at the top of the list as they have a large presence here already, the German parts suppliers are well established here, and Porsche NA is next door in ATL.

Recently the big rumors regarding Euro investement here beyond EADS are that VW is looking for a new US plant. They are apparently looking a a Black Belt location for the plant which would be great for the state as this is the only section of the state that isn't really booming at the moment.



Where are all of my respected members going?
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 21, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6962 times:



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 18):
Funnily enough, if by any chance, the advent of the KC45 contract persuades GE/EADS to go ahead and stick the GEnx on the A330, it could soldier on for some considerable time as a heavily discounted, but viable alternative to those who don't need the full range capabilities of the 787-8.

And IIRC as we saw on the 787-3 (will it won't it) thread, the A33x are lower weight than the longer range 787s and that is without any sort of A330E program to cut fat and possibly make for cheaper assembly. The later Trents (and presumably the GEnxs as well) are lighter which would also help to reduce weight. So the A330s could "struggle" on yet a while.


User currently offlineCarls From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 522 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6891 times:



Quoting MrBrightSide (Reply 11):
New-gen ML is a really fine car

I bought an ML 350 in 2006, it was the worst car I have had in my entire live. It is not reliable, it was not only mine, my brother in law bought one at the same time and he is desperate to get rid of it. It lost 40% of it value in just one year. Now I have a German Audi A6 and in one year I have no problem, that is reliability.

BTW Congratulations to USAF and EADS. the A330 it is a great plane.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29680 posts, RR: 84
Reply 23, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6596 times:
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Quoting Astuteman (Reply 18):
Funnily enough, if by any chance, the advent of the KC45 contract persuades GE/EADS to go ahead and stick the GEnx on the A330, it could soldier on for some considerable time as a heavily discounted, but viable alternative to those who don't need the full range capabilities of the 787-8.

True. I suppose it will depend on how quickly Boeing can bring the second line into production and how quickly they launch the "787-8SP" and the 787-8F. GE would want to be on the KC-45A, anyway, just for the guaranteed production (as BrianDromey noted in Reply 16), but a 787-8F could cut the heart out of the A330-200F (same payload, better range, better efficiency, and it lasts forever).



Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 16):
I think the big thing here is CASHFLOW. EADS/GN now has an almost guaranteed inflow of cash for the next 20 years. The key thing here though is EADS, and by extension Airbus, has a stable cashflow it can borrow against to bankroll the 320 successor, and reduce the leverage of existing programmes (XWB & 380).

Very true. But folks also need to remember that Boeing itself has a "guaranteed cash flow" for the next two decades as well - the 787. Boeing creating a second production line plus new models (787-8SP, 787-8F, 787-8LR, 787-10, 787-10ER, 787-11ER) will ensure it becomes the most popular widebody family ever, with sales clearing likely 2000-plus. They are already making money hand over fist and will continue to do so for the next few years, at a minimum, thanks to strong deliveries. They will have plenty of cash on hand to fund the 737RS (2007's profits alone could cover most of it) and the 777RS both from commercial, but also space and defense.

Quote:
This also creates a massive rival for Boeing in Space and defense. Good for the USAF and armed forces around the world, bad for the bottom line at Boeing.

Don't write-off Boeing just yet, thank you. Five years ago people were saying Boeing would leave the commercial airline business and just do defense and space because "there was no money in airliners". They would be unwise to say Boeing should now leave the defense market. Integrated Defense Systems has done well the past decade and the world, unfortunately, doesn't look to be getting any quieter in the next one.

Quote:
Still, Boeing knew the 767 could not compete with the KC-30.

If that was true, Boeing would have offered something else. They hoped the 767 could pull it off because it was the line they most wanted to protect (no less then Airbus wanted to protect the A330 line with the KC-30A submission). Now that the 767 is dead, they will be offering the 777F for the second or third round (to replace the KC-10A extender) and can now offer the 787 for the EC-/RC-/E-series replacements. The KC-45A will by default win the rest of the KC-135 replacements and will likely have the edge for the EC-/RC-/E-series replacements, but the 777F should comfortably win the KC-10A extender replacement as well as any RFPs for a large freighter that does not require "direct loading" (ala the nose or the tail) and operation from unimproved runways.


User currently offlineR2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2497 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 6358 times:



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 18):
Funnily enough, if by any chance, the advent of the KC45 contract persuades GE/EADS to go ahead and stick the GEnx on the A330, it could soldier on for some considerable time as a heavily discounted, but viable alternative to those who don't need the full range capabilities of the 787-8.
Perhaps with A350, and then A320RS to get their heads around, it might do Airbus as an interim in the 230-250 seat range (in -200 guise), sitting just under the A350-800...
For that matter, An A333 similarly re-engined might make a superb 787-3....

Totally with you there. I really hope Airbus rethinks their strategy and mounts the GEnx on the A330. It would make a great competitor on dense medium-range routes, and partly compensate for the gap that Airbus will leave below the A358. Plus it would make for an even better freighter or tanker. I say, bring on the GEnx!


25 Post contains images 727Fixer : I for one am most happy about the EADS contract. As a resident of Mobile its going to be hell of an increase of our economy around here! This on top o
26 Post contains images Stitch : If CASA has a major IS (information Services) office in Barcelona, I'd be working for Airbus instead of having considering going back to Boeing's IS
27 Chgoflyer : Are you kidding? Do you really think this about higher quaility?
28 Stitch : The USAF apparently did, since they said the KC-30A won four of the five primary criteria (and it will be interesting to see if the one they lost was
29 Chgoflyer : Contracts/orders of this size are awarded to whomever is offering the best bribe without getting caught.
30 Post contains images Stitch : Then I guess Boeing needs to take some lessons from EADS on how to get away with it...
31 MrBrightSide : Well, guess what, it's my money as well, being that I am European-citizen who pays taxes to Uncle Sam. Second of all, since when EADS is French? True
32 Xtoler : ROLL TIDE! That would be nice, but I just don't see it happening. But then again if RR is going to build jet engines for G/A aircraft in Prince Georg
33 MrBrightSide : Actually, german-built Mercedes Benz E 500 '05 and Audi A4 2.0T Quattro '06 were worst cars in my life when it came to issues. E500 had ton of issues
34 Post contains images Astuteman : A single production (assembly would be more accurate) line is not the limiting factor.. A single production (assembly would be more accurate) line is
35 Post contains images Stitch : No it is not, but Boeing has four or more years to both develop their current suppliers (Spirit and the Japanese Heavies have plenty of room for expa
36 Post contains images Astuteman : From my seat, it looks like the current suppliers will pretty much have their hands full ramping up to meet the presently envisaged peak capacity ove
37 Post contains images Stitch : You know me - be it an Airbus or Boeing program, I always like to be the optimist.
38 Post contains images Astuteman : That's better! I can see it from here.... Rgds
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