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Will 773ER Sales Surpass The 772ER?  
User currently offlineOldAeroGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3523 posts, RR: 66
Posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2885 times:

At the end of February, respective sales for these two airplanes stood at:

772ER: 433

773ER: 354

Last year, the 773ER outsold the 772ER 97 to 11.

With the 773ER only 79 sales behind the 772ER, will the 773ER pass the 772ER in '08 or '09?


Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
21 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8565 posts, RR: 13
Reply 1, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2845 times:
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it seems reasonable - there are a large number of early build 744s coming up for retirement in the coming years and a lot of carriers seem to see the 777-300ER as a more viable replacement than either the 747-8 or the A380 , on the other hand sales of the 777-200ER definitely seem to be tapering off - the combined effect of these two trends would suggest that at some point sales of the 300ER will overtake the 200ER


Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineFlyingClrs727 From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 733 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2832 times:



Quoting OldAeroGuy (Thread starter):
With the 773ER only 79 sales behind the 772ER, will the 773ER pass the 772ER in '08 or '09?

Short answer. Yes!

Whether it is 2008 or 2009 might depend on whether the US and other economies go into a recession and how big it is.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8372 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2759 times:
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The 777-300ER seems to be the chariot of choice for the future in Hong Kong and other 744 heavy Asian cities. The 773ER can do JFK to HKG nonstop, 744 is challengedto do this. Cathay has 30 on order, with no 748 or A380 order yet placed. The tea leaves aren't difficult to read. Korean, ANA, JAL, SIA, EVA and Cathay all have 773ER in their fleet plans, see them at LAX.

User currently offlineBAW716 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 2028 posts, RR: 27
Reply 4, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2724 times:

The short answer: YES.

Reasoning: There are a lot of carriers out there that are looking to modify and or replace their fleets (some who have 747-400s are moving to the 773ER because of the similar range and substantial unit cost savings). The 772ER, while a long haul bird is going to be supplanted by the 787 and the 772LR. It's inevitable. Does it mean that the 772ER is going away? NO. I do think, however, the trend toward moving in the direction of the 773ER is coming.

I also think that given the current fuel situation, we are going to see higher density in Economy on the 777. Emirates has been operating with 10 abreast for awhile now; it appears that several other carriers are starting to follow suit: AF on some of their 773s have gone to 10 across and now, KLM is taking their 773ER with 10 across seating. Whether they are improving seat pitch to compensate is a question; but clearly, I see a trend coming...and it is not good for the Economy class long haul passenger.

It will be interesting to see how the flying public reacts to the higher density; if it is no worse than flying on a 747, then I think the 10 across is here to stay and it will only be matter of time before other carriers make that move.

Until we can figure out how to run the GE90 on biofuel, we are going to be stuck with this problem for the forseeable future.
Sad, but true.

baw716



David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2694 times:



Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 3):
Korean, ANA, JAL, SIA, EVA and Cathay all have 773ER in their fleet plans

...and interestingly (but not surprisingly) enough, none have the 772LR.

Ironic, considering that Boeing (at least, initially) anticipated the overwhelming majority of that model's sales going to the East Asian and Oceanian block of carriers. Instead, N.American and W.Asian carriers have been that platform's base.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30978 posts, RR: 86
Reply 6, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2694 times:
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I would not be surprised at all if it did.

User currently offlineRamzi From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 535 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2647 times:

Simple answer: Definitely
Explanation and clarification: I don't think that's needed, right?



There will come a time when you believe everything is finished - that will be the beginning.
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 2189 times:



Quoting BAW716 (Reply 4):
I also think that given the current fuel situation, we are going to see higher density in Economy on the 777. Emirates has been operating with 10 abreast for awhile now; it appears that several other carriers are starting to follow suit: AF on some of their 773s have gone to 10 across and now, KLM is taking their 773ER with 10 across seating. Whether they are improving seat pitch to compensate is a question; but clearly, I see a trend coming...and it is not good for the Economy class long haul passenger.

AF only uses 10 abreast on their tourist configured 777s.

The 777 is narrower than the 747 so it is slightly less comfortable than a 747 with 10 across. I don't think we'll see it that extensively to be honest.


User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 2051 times:



Quoting RJ111 (Reply 8):

AF only uses 10 abreast on their tourist configured 777s.

not for long... you'll be seeing it on business-oriented routes as well


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6914 posts, RR: 63
Reply 10, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 1992 times:



Quoting OldAeroGuy (Thread starter):

With the 773ER only 79 sales behind the 772ER, will the 773ER pass the 772ER in '08 or '09?

Yes.

The 777-300ER is the 'right' plane at the 'right' time. Good for Boeing! Orders remain very healthy and it will be many a year before the A350-1000 (perhaps) usurps its position. Right now it is in a class of its own in terms of shifting x passengers across y distance.

The 777-200ER was also a winner but its star has waned. There may yet be a few top-up orders but Air New Zealand, TAAG, and Thai Airways are liable to be the last new customers for this model.


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8017 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 1973 times:

I'm surprised that the 777-300ER has done so well considering that Boeing is asking close to full price for the plane.

I do think that in the future, the 773ER could be a candidate to replace the 747-400's in the UA and NW fleets, unless Airbus can live up to the promises of the A350-1000.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30978 posts, RR: 86
Reply 12, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 1954 times:
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Quoting RayChuang (Reply 11):
I'm surprised that the 777-300ER has done so well considering that Boeing is asking close to full price for the plane.

They may be asking it, but they are not getting it.  Smile

However, Boeing's margins on the model seem to have improved around 3-5% so that is still very good news.


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 37
Reply 13, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 1914 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 10):
The 777-300ER is the 'right' plane at the 'right' time. Good for Boeing! Orders remain very healthy and it will be many a year before the A350-1000 (perhaps) usurps its position. Right now it is in a class of its own in terms of shifting x passengers across y distance.

More accurately the better right plane at the right time. If the difference between A346 fuel consumption and 773ER's consumption had been less, the A346 would be selling and splitting the market with the 773ER. This would have resulted in the scenario that Boeing had feared and had led them to signing on with GE. Then we would be talking about how A346 and 773ERs sales were not approaching the sales of the A343 and 772ER respectively.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 11):
I'm surprised that the 777-300ER has done so well considering that Boeing is asking close to full price for the plane.

Unlikely that they are getting what they are asking for.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineTGV From France, joined Dec 2004, 874 posts, RR: 20
Reply 14, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 1872 times:



Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 9):


Quoting RJ111,reply=8:

AF only uses 10 abreast on their tourist configured 777s.

not for long... you'll be seeing it on business-oriented routes as well

Indeed the first 773 with 10 abreast for "normal" routes has been received end of 2007.



Avoid 777 with 3-4-3 config in Y ! They are real sardine cans. (AF/KL for example)
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 1828 times:

I stand corrected.

Is that becomeing standard for the fleet or will they be effectively having sub fleets? How about the -200ERs as well?


User currently offlineAT502B From South Africa, joined Dec 2004, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 1785 times:



Quoting TGV (Reply 14):


Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 9):


Quoting RJ111,reply=8:

AF only uses 10 abreast on their tourist configured 777s.


not for long... you'll be seeing it on business-oriented routes as well

Indeed the first 773 with 10 abreast for "normal" routes has been received end of 2007.

Got an upcoming B77W flight later this year CDG-JNB, and it's a 10 abreast version.



I love the smell of jet fuel in the morning.
User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1541 posts, RR: 12
Reply 17, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 1566 times:



Quoting RayChuang (Reply 11):
I do think that in the future, the 773ER could be a candidate to replace the 747-400's in the UA and NW fleets, unless Airbus can live up to the promises of the A350-1000.

I don't think NW will get it but it would be perfect for UA. Especially if they get the 787 also.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineFarnborough24 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2007, 167 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 1545 times:

Gotta say I'm stunned at those figures-had no idea it was anything like that close. The 77W does seem to have been a massive success story for Boeing, although I've often wondered whether they held it back a few years to prolong the 744 for as long as they could. It seems to me the 77W doesn't have much that they couldn't have done 3 years earlier than they did?

As for the 77W replacing 744s, I think it's a tragedy. I love the 744, and lament the fact I was born 10 years too late to fully be able to appreciate its long haul domination. Just as I reach the age to go out on my own flights and experience different carriers/aircraft, the 744 retires, and the 77W just doesn't do it for me in the same way.

This isn't to say I wouldn't be totally 100% happy to fly one, it's just basically not as cool!



My Saab 9000-the chav eater!
User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8017 posts, RR: 5
Reply 19, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 1510 times:

I think better than expected still-air range for the plane helped 777-300ER sales. If the 773ER stayed at around 7,180 nautical mile still-air range, sales would probably be a bit lower--but the current demonstrated still-air range of circa 7,600 nautical miles spurred a lot more sales, especially for Asian airlines.

User currently offlineOldAeroGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3523 posts, RR: 66
Reply 20, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 1435 times:



Quoting Farnborough24 (Reply 18):
It seems to me the 77W doesn't have much that they couldn't have done 3 years earlier than they did?

I don't think the engines could have been ready 3 years earlier.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 19):
If the 773ER stayed at around 7,180 nautical mile still-air range, sales would probably be a bit lower--but the current demonstrated still-air range of circa 7,600 nautical miles spurred a lot more sales, especially for Asian airlines.

I think the still air range is closer to 7900 nm, but I agree with you that the 773ER increased range capability due to engine and airframe improvements and increased MTOW was a big factor in its success.



Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21529 posts, RR: 59
Reply 21, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1383 times:



Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 20):
I think the still air range is closer to 7900 nm, but I agree with you that the 773ER increased range capability due to engine and airframe improvements and increased MTOW was a big factor in its success.

When it was launched, Boeing publicized a range FAR less than the 772ER and the 744ER, and barely more than the 744.

From a 2000 press release:

Quote:
"There are two models of 777 Longer-Range airplanes, the 777-200 model that will carry 301 passengers 8,860 nautical miles (16,405 km) and the 777-300 model that will carry 365 passengers 7,200 nautical miles (13,330 km)."

As the test program came along, the range kept going up as the GE90-115 proved to be an amazing performer. Early in the testing, there was this bit of PR in May 2003 as the 77W set a TOW record for a twin:

Quote:
"Increase the airplane's range by 75 nautical miles (139 kilometers) to 7,495 nautical miles (13,881 kilometers).

It had jumped from 7200, to 7250, to 7420 and now to 7495nm during testing, due to various reasons including being UNDER WEIGHT!
In December of 2003, Boeing released this:

Quote:
"The Boeing 777-300ER (Extended Range) passenger airplane's excellent performance during flight testing has led the company to decide to offer the airplane with higher range and payload capabilities than originally planned.
... The enhanced airplane's maximum takeoff weight would be 775,000 pounds, or 351,534 kilograms, up from 759,600 pounds, or 344,549 kilograms. Its design range would be 7,705 nautical miles compared to 7,525 nautical miles."

So by the end of the test program, it had surpassed the 772ER by 5nm, something that surprised all customers. It was due to engines, raked wingtips and the new landing gear allowing for better takeoff performance and overall lower fuel burn.

The range was again increased 1.5 years after EIS (announced in 2004 for integration in late 2005), those increases could be retrofitted to any delivered 773ER via a performance package. This meant that it could fly the same routes as the 772ER and actually carry more pax and more cargo, and would far outperform any 744 on cargo with a full load of pax.

It was once the 1 year EIS range increase came and real world results with AF proved that the plane was performing well that sales really took off. A true success story from start to finish, a plane offered for sale with 7200nm range only to offer customers 7% more range by delivery and almost 10% more range within 5 years of first flight.

And if you notice, 772ER sales nearly dried up at that point, because there was now no trade off with the 773ER. The size of a 747 classic with nearly 8000nm range. I don't think the aviation world is going to see such an achievement again, as it seems all new programs are overweight and not quite living up to the initial PR, while the 77W far surpassed it's promises.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
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