OdiE From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1641 posts, RR: 1 Posted (12 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 1024 times:
Hey there. I would like to know if anybody can supply me information regarding whether MAS will launch any new routes for their summer 2001 scheldules? Last year, MAS made a press release that they will be flying to Okayama, Japan via Fukuoka, Japan. But I checked their timetable and it wasn't there! It was also reported by the Malaysian government that MAS suppose to have direct flights into Mumbai and Bangalore last Winter scheldules but this was not inaugurated as well.
Is there any major changes in MAS' Summer 2001 scheldules as well? Thank you very much.
Phileo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 2, posted (12 years 3 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 783 times:
MAS will start reducing their fleet, reduce the capacity and frequency in order to cope with the losses. Just wondered they are going to launch any new route or not since they are going to cut some of the current routes.
OdiE From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1641 posts, RR: 1 Reply 3, posted (12 years 3 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 765 times:
Phileo: Do you know when will they start to reduce their fleet? So far, they are cutting frequencies to Auckland from daily B777s to 5 times weekly B747s services; Perth from twice daily B777s to 12 times B777s services weekly; Shanghai from 4 times B777s weekly to 3 times B747s weekly; 4 times B747s weekly to Johannesburg and Cape Town to twice weekly on B747s and twice weekyl on B777s; the daily late evening flight from Sydney and Melbourne to Kuala Lumpur will be increased to daily but using B777s instead of 6 times weekly using B747s; twice weekly to Cairo and Beirut will be using B777s instead of B747s and reducing frequncy to Vienna from 4 times B777s services to 2 times B777s services weekly. However, they will increase frequencies to Hong Kong and Seoul and upgrading their Jeddah services to B747s.
I hope they will launch their planned services to San Francisco, Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyberabad soon. It is reported in a Malaysian newspaper that MAS wanted to increase their Frankfurt services to daily and according to justplanes.com, MAS wanted to increase their frequencies to Munich to daily. They are increasing their services from twice weekly to thrice weekly from April 2001 using B777s.
From what I see, they are trying to reduce their B747s fleet, i.e. using more B777s in their routes as you can see from their new Summer 2001 scheldules.
OdiE From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1641 posts, RR: 1 Reply 5, posted (12 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 723 times:
777man: MAS is taking delivery of 2 more 777s? Hmm...then there is a rduce in the 747 capacity then? They are changing some of their flights from 747s to 777s. Even their Sydney and Melbourne route is operated by the lower capacity 777s. wonder why! I thought the traffic was pretty healthy for the Sydney and Melbourne route? Will the new 777s be in new MAS colors? Heard that they are going to launch their new corporate logo soon. Thanx
Kbyongsj From Ireland, joined May 2000, 21 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (12 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 721 times:
Firstly, where can one obtain news about fleet reduction? According to their site, they only have 15 744 which isn't a big number. And can they afford to reduce that with 2x daily to LHR and daily to LAX and also the Aussie ones which require a 744? And secondly, where is the site which gives you the summer schedule?
The777Man From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 6079 posts, RR: 56 Reply 7, posted (12 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 702 times:
I only tried to explain the increase in 777 routes/flights and I have no idea about the reduction, if any, in 744 flights. I think they will wait with a new livery until they get more money and when they have offically announced what alliance they will join; they will likely join Wings with KLM and Northwest. Maybe they will park a few 744s?? The777Man
Need a Boeing 777 Firing Order....Further to fly....GA, T5, CI and LX 777s
OdiE From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1641 posts, RR: 1 Reply 9, posted (12 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 664 times:
I don't think they are reducing their fleet size! In fact, I think they are planning to announce orders for new aircrafts soon. It was reported that MAS on the verge of ordering A320 family for their short-haul route to replce their 737s which is quite old. But that didn't materialize. According to Malaysia press last year, MAS was said to been negotiating with Boeing regarding theri B777-200LR and B777-300ER. They wanted to launch KUL-EWR as well as KUL-LAX nonstop soon. But no announcement was made so far. They might make it when they launch their new livery, but I have no idea when.
As for they are probably increasing the B777s services since they are taking delivery of B777s. I don't think they are trying to cut back their B747s services. Porbably not enough B747s to fly to so many heavy traffic destinations i.e. SYD and MEL. And the KUL-EZE route is pretty healthy. Their seats were normally filled up even in Business and First class. So I don't think they will suspend the route. The probably want to increase the frequency, but I don't think the South African government doesn't give fifth freedom rights to MAS or Argentinian goverment doesn't permit MAS to increase the frequency. And obviously, they can't afford to decrease frequency to SYD, MEL, LHR and LAX. For SYD and MEL, their evening flight from KUL has now become point to point service, thus increasing capacity. Check their new scheldules from www.mas.com.my. Compare their current schledules with the summer months say May, then you will know their new summer scheldules.
As for alliances, I hope they will announce soon. I will be flying with them from LHR-KUL-SYD-MEL-KUL-LHR in June! I hope they will join Oneworld/Qualiflyer.
HB-IWC From Greece, joined Sep 2000, 4414 posts, RR: 76 Reply 10, posted (12 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 663 times:
Once again, I would like to know where you get all the inside-information regarding load factors on MAS, which is, as I said in a previous post regarding this topic a very closed company, with whom it is very hard to get information, even for industry insiders.
So, regarding the KUL-JNB-CPT-EZE route, I would really like to know the sources of the information regarding the load factors in Business and First class, you stated.
Furthermore, given the recent withdrawal of some airlines from South Africa, it is absolutely clear that the South African government doesn't apply a very restrictive policy regarding the traffic rights for extra frequencies into the country.
Also, as MH is the only carrier poriding service between CPT and EZE, I don't think that either the South African nor the Argentinian government would make any objections to an increase of frequencies available.
OdiE From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1641 posts, RR: 1 Reply 11, posted (12 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 634 times:
Well, first of all I have to agree with you that MAS is in fact a very closed company and they don't disclose their load factors to the public like most of the other airlines do! As for load factors on specific route, you don't need to be an insider to know it! Give MAS a call and ask them when's the seat available to the destination you are looking for. If they give you a date that is very far ahead, this means that they are enjoying pretty good traffic on that particular route! Sometimes, you just ask for Economy Class seats is enough! For example, if all the B777s seats are filled up and none of the first and business class seats are taken at all (highly unlikely), the load factor is at 83.8% and for a B747-400, the load factor is 82.4%. It is that simple! Don't you think an airline with at least 80% for a route is enjoying pretty good traffic?? Not to mention that First and Business Class passengers are not taken into account at all! Do some math man!!! And the last time i checked on the KUL-EZE route, the plane was filled up in economy for about 2 months and Business for a month and a half, although that was quite some time ago!
If airline(s) pull out from a country, this doesn't means that the country need to give rights to other airlines! I noticed that some European carriers are suspending their services into South Africa, but this doesn't means that they will give the rights to MAS. Take Hong Kong for example, several airlines had suspended or reduced their services into Hong Kong some time ago. But yet, MAS was not given fifth freedom right to operate trans-pacific flights from HKG! Does this prove my point!
And your point on the if there's only one carrier that provides direct service into another country then, they would have no objections in increase in frequency! This is so NOT true! My point is:
1. I know that MAS is the only carrier to operate between CPT-EZE. Have you forgot that SAA operate JNB-EZE as well. I believe that SAA operate plenty of flights between JNB-CPT, so passengers can still transfer at JNB to transfer to EZE!!
2. Take MAS flights to CDG, FRA and FCO for example! MAS is the sole carrier that operate passenger flights into these cities. However, MAS is unable to inicrease flights into these cities because the other countries' carrier does not operate into KUL!! Take CDG as an example, MAS wants to increase their KUL-CDG flight to daily for a long time, but they had been operating at only thrice weekly for ages! This is because traffic rights was not granted to MAS because AF does not operate into KUL!!! MAS is even having problems securing another landing right into CDG, worse still, 4 more!! However, there are some countries with very liberal air policies, example Australia and Malaysia. MAS and Laudaair is opertaing the KUL-Australia but no Australian carrier operate that route at all! Yet, MAS still have problems in securing addtional rights into SYD and MEL, although they operate twice daily into SYD and MEL! And for the KUL-LHR route, when BA pulls out from LHR-KUL route, the only airline that is flying that route is MAS, although VS codeshare with MAS on this route! If MAS lose VS as their codeshare partner, MAS will lose half of their LHR slots. They need to reduce their double daily frequency to LHR to only once a day. And MAS cannot afford to lose these valuable slots at LHR since BA does not operate into KUL!! Take SIA's story for example. SIA had requested to operate only once daily trans-atlantic from LHR, but was denied although BA enjoy loads of fifth freedom rights for their flights to Australia, i.e. Sydney and Melbourne!
HB-IWC From Greece, joined Sep 2000, 4414 posts, RR: 76 Reply 12, posted (12 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 623 times:
Your post holds some of the most simplistic ways of thinking that I have read this year so far on this forum, so let me just clear you up on a few things:
1. Regarding load factors on a certain route
If you would know anything about the airline industry, and the way airlines sell seats and commercially market their flights, you wouldn't propose such a stupid investigation as to get to know the load factor on a certain route.
Indeed, when asking for an economy class seat, there are about 10 different kinds of them, all related to different types of fares. It is hard to believe that even the highest economy class fares, which usually tops the non-endorsable business class fare would be full for one and a half or two months to come.
Airlines indeed keep alsways a couple of seats available to sel them to passengers willing to pay the full fare for their ticket.
So, when you did your little investigation, requiring about available seats, what kind of seats were they? Did the airline ask you for specific dates, because that would mean they are offering you a restricted fare.
Anyway, I did a search on the web following your system (yes, you actually don't have to call up the airline to do so!), and there wasn't a single destination in MAS' network I checked, for which I couldn't get an economy class seat in the upcoming week. So, I find it highly bizare that you wouldn't be able to find a seat with 2 months notice.
My point is, that you actually cannot know how many seats the airline exactly sold at a certain point in time, for sure not by calling them up and asking if there are any seats available. This can give you no more than a slight indication about the load factors.
Apart from that, there is a huge difference between the number of booked seats and the number of passengers that will actually be traveling the route. You might have heard about the term 'no-shows'. Indeed, lots of passengers make bookings, but actually never show up for taking the flight. So, a fully booked flight NEVER implicates a 100% full-revenue load factor!
Another point you forget, is to take into account possible allotments of seats that the airline has sold to any code-share partners and whole-salers, and for which even the airline is not aware whether these allotments have actually been sold or not.
Furthermore, I wonder how you would calculate the load factor on a multi-leg flight, because that is what I was talking about in my previous post. How would you calculate the load factor on the KUL-JNB-CPT-EZE.
Following your simplistic reasoning, you would call up and ask MAS about seat availability to EZE, and, if they would tell you that there is no seats available you would presume the flight would be full.
However, for a multi-leg flight, this would only implicate that ONE leg of the flight is fully booked, the others could be completely empty. That is quite a big mistake you made there. Or did you ask the reservation staff about seat availability on each seperate leg? I think they will decline to give you such an information.
Last but not least, we were talking about how the flight was doing, which actually refers to a term called route performance.
Route performance is not just determined by passenger loads. An airline can indeed be consistently flying with high load factors on a certain route, but still loosing money on the route, as the mix of passengers isn't very favorable in terms of revenue, due to too many low-yield pax, or flights carrying lots of non-rev traffic.
Apart from that, other factors play a role when actually evaluating the performance of a route, i.e. to determine if the company is actually making any money on the flight.
Here are some factors that you might want to take into account during any new exercises:
- composition of fares paid by revenue pax;
- cargo load factors;
- crew costs, taking into account the number of crews needed to operate the route, and the frequency of the route, which is determening when the crew becomes available for next scheduling;
- handling costs and other overseas station-related expenses;
- overseas staff required specifically for the route;
I would be very interested in your analyses of all these factors, as to the a general appreciation of the route performance of MH's KUL-JNB-CPT-EZE route. If you can't come up with one, please let me know, and I will give you my point of view.
Finally, I think it is very funny that you want to teach me some mathematics (or at least urge me to do some math). FYI, I can tell you that, at the university where I am writing my Ph.D., I am working as an assistant lecturer in the applied mathematics department.
Btw, if in a MAS B747-400, seating 12F, 60C and 318Y pax, the economy class is full, I calculated the load factor as 79.1%. I think you better learn some math!
Furthermore, as an operational consultant with airlines around the world, I do this kind of route performance calculations for a living, and I just wrote quite a big work about it, so, I fear you're gonna have to wake up much earlier to beat me on this one, guy!
2. Regarding MH's South African situation and traffic rights
When I stated that it might be very easy for MAS to get extra traffic rights into South Africa, I was talking about South Africa and no other country, so don't start talking about other countries, as each country has a different policy when it comes to traffic rights and fifth freedom rights.
As I spent considerable time in the past in Johannesburg, working with the biggest airline in that country, I am quite well aware of the country's policy towards this topic, and when I say that it would be no problem for MAS to get extra rights, for sure when taking into account the number of airlines that have recently left and the current economic situation of the country, this is more than just a guess or airline-magazine wisdom.
Furthermore, my point was NOT that there is only one service between South African and Argentina, I clearly stated that the MAS service was the only service available between CPT and EZE, so please read before you start making all kinds of useless comments, accusing industry professionals of not being correct.
As a former consultant with SAL, I am very well aware of their twice-weekly JNB-EZE service. However, this service doesn't operate through CPT, as I stated. Transfering in JNB isn't accounted as a direct flight, and for sure not as a non-stop flight. We would call it a connecting flight.
I regard all other of your comments as useless within this discussion, as they refer to other countries with different policies. I was previously only talking about South Africa.
Finally, I would like to point you to the fact that you are quite new here, so I would urge you to take a closer look at the profile of the members that are replying to you, before you come up with stupid and childish remarks as the ones you made in your previous post.
Until now, I haven't seen any decently supported post of you, that would proove you have any in-depth view into the industry whatsoever. At your age, I think this would actually be highly unlikely, and that is not a problem for me, but, please, refrain from giving people the impression that you are a professional, as for each topic you will come up with, you will find REAL professionals on your way here!
OdiE From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1641 posts, RR: 1 Reply 13, posted (12 years 3 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 609 times:
That's a long reply you got here! Anyway, thank you for looking forward to my reply!
First of all, I mention load factor and not yield. So we shall leave this aside for now. I am talking about load factors all the while and never once i mention yield or revenue. See, even BA's route to KL is having load factors of about 70%, yet they are not making any profit at all, so let's not get into the economist's point of view.
Yeah, if you check on the KUL-SYD/MEL route somewhere in June, there's no seat available.I don't think you can find any seats available to SYD/MEL now as well. And when you call up MAS to check on the availabilty in Economy Class, unless you speciffy the class you want, they will normally check for you class Y, which is the full fare economy in MAS. I do know that there is 10 or more subclasses. That's why when you request for class B, H, K etc. they might not have seat! However, class Y is sometimes used for people who travel on different airlines. For example, when I last travel by United to the States, i was booked on Y class on my flight from KUL-NRT v.v. on Japan Airlines. It was stated on my ticket that my class was Y where as my other United flight segments is on other class, but not Y. And on twice occasion on ZRH-KUL v.v., the flight was completely filled, not even a single seat available in the economy Class. (This segment is code-shared with Swissair)
About the KUL-EZE load factor, if there's no more seat available in the economy, then there is a minimum load factor. I admit that I didn't take into account of other segments, but EZE is the final destination. So, I had assumed one point, that is I never take into account of passengers boarding at JNB and CPT! However, the flihgt to JNB was full as well. About each segment, I don't think reservation staff will mind telling you if CPT-EZE was full as well. So, we have KUL-JNB full and KUL-EZE full, and so I assumed that it should be full the whole way!
Another thing, in a MAS B747-400, there's 18F, 50C and 318Y. You might be using MAS' old configuration, but they had recently upgraded their fleet to this new configuration and I belive all their 747-400 fleet is already upgraded to the new configuration. And I think there's something with your applied math department, 12+60+318=390. So if the whole economy is full, we have 318/390X100=81.5%. I have no idea where you get 79.1% from!! I think you are the one who should learn some math! At least my math is correct for the new MAS configuration!
As for South Africa's traffic rights, since you said you are well aware of the country's air policy, I will not argue with you. I am as well giving other examples. But one thing I know for sure, MAS only got rights to land 4 times weekly into South Africa.
HB-IWC From Greece, joined Sep 2000, 4414 posts, RR: 76 Reply 14, posted (12 years 3 months 1 day ago) and read 576 times:
I will not reply to your full message, but just to show that you are not very well informed, I checked availability for KUL-SYD as from tomorrow:
* 22FEB01: both flights open in all classes
* 23FEB01: both flights open in all classes
* 24FEB01: on flight open in all classes, one flight only has F-seats available
* 25FEB01:on flight open in all classes, one flight only has F-seats available
And that is only for the upcoming days! So, I would say, no problem at all to book a seat on KUL-SYD. You wouldn't even have to pay a full-fare Y-seat.
Finally, as you said that in june all flights would be FULL already, I picked three days (in the beginning, middle and end of june), and on all days the two KUL-SYD flights are open for booking in ALL classes, including ALL subclasses.
I wonder where you get your information. Or are you just guessing?
Next time, just go to amadeus.net for checking before you post!
Avion From Bouvet Island, joined May 1999, 2205 posts, RR: 8 Reply 15, posted (12 years 3 months 9 hours ago) and read 528 times:
What you said cant be true. The www.swissair.com booking page only shows SR, Qualiflyergroup and American Airlines flights. SR doesnt sell tickets for MAS. They only sell tickets on their side of the codeshare flight ZRH-KUL.
HB-IWC From Greece, joined Sep 2000, 4414 posts, RR: 76 Reply 17, posted (12 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 516 times:
Please get your facts straight... the only one who was wrong here were YOU!
Anyway, the most reliable sites to go to are the sites of the global Computer Reservation Systems, such as Amadeus and Gallilleo.
The sites for the individual airlines are only reliable for their own flights and those of their partners, as they are connected to their own reservation systems, in the case of Swissair called PARS. The fact that all MH-flights show not available means actually that there is no direct link between Swissair's and MH's own systems.
As for the university I am working for, it is called MIT, and it is located in Camebridge, MA, USA. I don't expect you to know it anyway, as you will for sure never be even considered for attending this world-leader for engineering studies.
There is futhermore nothing wrong with my math, and I would be happy to teach you some. I would be able to teach you some elementary lessons in being humble and pollite at the same time...
If you should further doubt about my knowledge or my Ph.D. work, may I invite you to execute a search for my previous posts (I mean the ones I started myself), and you will see some of the comments some industry people on this forum have made about it.
Mas777 From United Kingdom, joined Jul 1999, 2916 posts, RR: 7 Reply 18, posted (12 years 2 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 483 times:
Oooh- I sensed a few handbags being clutched in the posts above but I have to admit that amadeus.net can often be inaccurate.
I flew to Kuala Lumpur last Friday night from London and my brother had checked on the system at home to see if the flight was busy as I was leaving work. The information from amadeus.net and expedia showed that the flight had seats in ALL classes available but when I arrived at the check-in counter - I was alerted to the fact that they were about to close the flight and offer my seat to someone else (but thank god my neighbour who works for BA had phoned his colleague ahead of me to tell them that I had left my house in a rush to catch the flight).
At the check-in desk there were leaflets which BA had been handing out to passengers that BA33 for that night was overbooked and they were offering incentives to passengers who were willing to off-load themselves and catch the flight the next day....
...so anyway - I tend not to believe the internet reservations systems myself and would still call the airline direct to check if a flight was full.
Note - I just tried to book a flight with BA LHR-SIN (since BA pull out of KUL next month) for May and although expedia is offering me a seat for GBP550 return - BA in Kuala Lumpur have told me that that flight is sold out and availability was only available on Qantas - so I am now flying with QF instead....
HB-IWC From Greece, joined Sep 2000, 4414 posts, RR: 76 Reply 19, posted (12 years 2 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 471 times:
There is obviously not always a direct link between the fact that a flights is already quite heavily booked and the question whether there are still some seats available for sales or not, hence the airline's overbooking policy.
But, whenever Amadeus shows availability, one can be sure that at least full fare seats in that particular section of the aircraft are still available for sales.
As far as I know, there is no internetsite available where one can check the availability of individual booking classes within each cabin of service, and that actually define the fare paid by the passenger in case a full fare is not paid. Such a system would actually not be of any interest to the general public, as we do not tend to know in what class a seat has to be booked to obtain a certain fare.
So, indeed, where Amadeus could show availability, the flight could as well be quite full already, but that doesn't depend on Amadeus, that depends on the individual airline's overbooking policy.
In any case, checking availability for a MAs flight on the Swissair website, as my good friend OdiE has been doing, is about the last thing I would do...
HB-IWC From Greece, joined Sep 2000, 4414 posts, RR: 76 Reply 20, posted (12 years 2 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 479 times:
Btw, OdiE, you seem to have changed your strategy. Only 2 weeks ago, you extensively described how you calculated the airline's load factor by phoning the airline asking for available seats. Right now, you apparently started calculating MAS' profits by checking their flights on the Swissair site...
Kangar From Ireland, joined Feb 2000, 395 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (12 years 2 months 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 467 times:
It would seem that life cannot be all that strenuous in MIT if you have time to sit here crapping out of you in such a pompous manner. Big deal if you went there, it's a fine school, but they evidently fail to assert the importance of spelling to their alumni (Camebridge?).
Education is not a license to be arrogant.