Knope2001 From United States, joined May 2005, 1597 posts, RR: 29 Posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3462 times:
As requested in another thread, here are Virgin America's onboard loads so far (through December 2007). I don't think this information has been posted here. Remember, however, that onboard loads only tell half the story and don't say much about yield.
Load factors with an asterisk are for months with only a few flights (service started late in the month)
LAX-IAD
38.6%* october
49.9% november
55.2% december
LAX-JFK
85.8%* august
55.8% september
61.3% october
68.5% november
74.0% december
LAX-SFO
66.3% august
54.7% september
59.3% october
58.7% november
54.1% december
SFO-IAD
48.8%* september
66.4% october
66.7% november
63.1% december
SFO-JFK
81.9% august
51.6% september
57.3% october
61.8% november
65.6% december
SFO-LAS
48.0% october
52.6% november
55.1% december
Ikramerica From United States, joined May 2005, 18390 posts, RR: 59 Reply 1, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3443 times:
I figure LAX-JFK was doing the best. And the LAX-SFO loads show why they are doing the promotional give aways. Ouch. IAD also started out pretty poorly but looks to be improving.
VX still has to worry that in a market of high fuel prices and high load factors that they can't pull competitive loads on any route but LAX-JFK. I mean, those December loads are poor, considering how hard it was to find a cheap seat on any legacy in 2nd half of that month.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
LAXintl From United States, joined May 2000, 12040 posts, RR: 22 Reply 5, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3359 times:
Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1): LAX-SFO loads show why they are doing the promotional give aways
Yes and LAX-SFO is a route that really does not have much seasonal swings so the excuse that its winter does not mean much.
Going up against entrenched UA and SWA in the California corridor is not for the faint of heart.
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4): They need to seriously consider adding one or two rows to First Class. It's frequently impossible to get a first class seat on LAX-JFK.
Indeed. On about 3 occasions when business had me to NY, I really tried to book VX just to try them out, however F class was sold at the times I needed travel. With only 2-3 daily flights at the time unlike other carriers one cant simply be willing to wait an hour or two to the next available flight.
Only downside I could see with added F seats however how would they work out across the rest of the network which likely might not need them and lead to a need for subfleet for the LAX/SFO-JFKs which obviously limits operational flexibility.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
KcrwFlyer From United States, joined May 2004, 2483 posts, RR: 9 Reply 6, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3324 times:
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4): They need to seriously consider adding one or two rows to First Class. It's frequently impossible to get a first class seat on LAX-JFK.
That makes sense. If economy is running half full, and first is always full, maybe they should go ahead and add 3 or 4 rows to first. Its not like they'll miss the economy seats.
Aerohottie From New Zealand, joined Mar 2004, 617 posts, RR: 3 Reply 7, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3269 times:
I wouldn't read too much into these numbers.
This load trend is what most start-ups go through... high initial loads due to the launch, followed by a drop in demand and then a steady increase as the carrier becomes more accepted by the market. I good sign in all of this is that the markets are now increasing quite rapidly.
Ahem, US Carriers. The Hub and Spoke theory doesn't always work.
Ikramerica From United States, joined May 2005, 18390 posts, RR: 59 Reply 8, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3265 times:
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5): Yes and LAX-SFO is a route that really does not have much seasonal swings so the excuse that its winter does not mean much.
Winter? It was 95 degrees at my house the other day! It was even 85 in Santa Monica on Sunday!
But yes, this is a mostly business route, with of course some regional leisure traffic, and UA also sends connecting pax to SFO for Asia.
With such low load factors, there is just no excuse for not doing what I and others have suggested and adding more F seats. 8 more seats would take out 3 rows of Y (if they cut F pitch to 52 or so, something nobody will notice in a non-flat non-long haul aircraft...).
That would cut Y capacity by 18, something they won't miss unless LF are routinely averaging above 85%, and add in 8F seats of revenue vs. 18 unsold Y seats.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
Flybyguy From United States, joined Jun 2004, 1609 posts, RR: 1 Reply 9, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3145 times:
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5): Only downside I could see with added F seats however how would they work out across the rest of the network which likely might not need them and lead to a need for subfleet for the LAX/SFO-JFKs which obviously limits operational flexibility.
Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 6): That makes sense. If economy is running half full, and first is always full, maybe they should go ahead and add 3 or 4 rows to first. Its not like they'll miss the economy seats.
I see that maybe if they added the extra rows of first they can use those on lucrative transcons and just give the extra first seats as an upgrade to FFs on shorter routes.
"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
Ikramerica From United States, joined May 2005, 18390 posts, RR: 59 Reply 10, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3111 times:
Quoting Flybyguy (Reply 9): I see that maybe if they added the extra rows of first they can use those on lucrative transcons and just give the extra first seats as an upgrade to FFs on shorter routes.
They already offer "discount" F for the first few seats on each flight. On the flights with lower projected F load, they just sell MORE discount F seats.
There will be people who bite on them if the price is right. No need to give them away.
Or they could hold back 2 for last minute bookings on all flights, as that is what business travelers need. Right now, VX is useless to the business traveler who has the approval to fly F by their company. Those flyers are not going to choose VX Y vs. another carrier F on principle, because if they are seen doing this too many times, the corporate policy will magically change...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
LDIkaros From United States, joined Apr 2007, 124 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3072 times:
Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 3): The loads are low and VX have been running sale after sale after sale. Sounds like they'll run out of cash by early 2009 if not sooner.
Agree. Their load factors are horrendously low and with all their fare sales I don't think they make that much with their existing customers either.
Maybe extending their first class would help. Still, they operate highly competitive routes and are based in a very expensive region. Does that make sense for a startup, especially in a cut-throat business such as airlines?
KcrwFlyer From United States, joined May 2004, 2483 posts, RR: 9 Reply 12, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3062 times:
Quoting LDIkaros (Reply 11): Still, they operate highly competitive routes and are based in a very expensive region. Does that make sense for a startup, especially in a cut-throat business such as airlines?
Futurecaptain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 13, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3038 times:
I've always wondered where you go to get this information. I know airlines report numbers to the DOT but their website sucks for searches.
Where is the info?
F9Animal From United States, joined Dec 2004, 3383 posts, RR: 35 Reply 14, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2928 times:
Quoting Aerohottie (Reply 7): I wouldn't read too much into these numbers.
This load trend is what most start-ups go through... high initial loads due to the launch, followed by a drop in demand and then a steady increase as the carrier becomes more accepted by the market. I good sign in all of this is that the markets are now increasing quite rapidly.
Totally agree with you. I am actually quite impressed with the loads listed. I really expected about 30-40% factors after startup. If the numbers are right, I would be really interested to see what Jan-March have brought. If there is improvement by just 10%, they are certainly in line with a decent load factor for a startup. I have worked for a startup, and remember the first 4 months we hardly broke a 40% load factor. Some flights were at about 10%. It took about a year to get our loads in the 60-70% range. Consistency is important, and I think we just might find ourselves a winner here.
Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 3): The loads are low and VX have been running sale after sale after sale. Sounds like they'll run out of cash by early 2009 if not sooner.
Sale after sale is good. It attracts business, and puts a name out for them. Lets face it, it is a hard economy right now. I am really tight on my spending now, so I am certainly more likely to be attracted to a sale, than pay full price. I really feel confident about Virgin, and I really like the product they offer. I don't see them going away anytime soon.
Luv2cattlecall From United States, joined Sep 2007, 1479 posts, RR: 2 Reply 15, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2898 times:
This explains why they had flights on Dec. 19th '07 going for $139 a week before from IAD-SFO while all the other airlines were charging $300+
Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8): (if they cut F pitch to 52 or so, something nobody will notice in a non-flat non-long haul aircraft...).
In this case, I disagree, especially in Row 1 on VX. I almost prefer their exit row to the Row 1 product, due to more "usable" legroom, and, more importantly, a much higher chance of having an empty seat next to you. In addition, those damn gooseneck LED reading lamps are torture if your neighbors or the person behind you is using them! Add to that the FAs going in and out of the forward galley, and to that the fact that you can't use the empty screen next to you strictly for Google-maps ....
Quoting F9Animal (Reply 14): Sale after sale is good. It attracts business, and puts a name out for them. Lets face it, it is a hard economy right now. I am really tight on my spending now, so I am certainly more likely to be attracted to a sale, than pay full price. I really feel confident about Virgin, and I really like the product they offer. I don't see them going away anytime soon.
But it's better if you didn't have to have sales and could charge full price. However, that could actually be their strategy, to have more or less perpetual sales since that tends to increase the sense of urgency and feeling of value for joe customer. (Bose and those "Call in the next 10 minutes and we'll send you 4 Ionic Breezes for $500" commercials come to mind... your average customer would probably never consider buying 1 Ionic Breeze for $100....but when he sees 4 for $400 and things he's getting a $1600 value, time to add to the pile of credit card debt!).
When you have to breaststroke to your connecting flight...it's a crash!
AAJFKSJUBKLYN From United States, joined Jul 2007, 643 posts, RR: 2 Reply 17, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2621 times:
I find it weird that I have seen absolutely no marketing for them other then the sign at JFK letting you know what terminal they are at. I was speaking to a neighbor, and she was like who the heck are they and she travels JFK-LAX nealy 4 times a month, she works for one the studios...forgot which one. She is also a Platinum flier with AA and her company has an agreement with AA as well, so that could be why.
Ikramerica From United States, joined May 2005, 18390 posts, RR: 59 Reply 18, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2604 times:
Quoting Luv2cattlecall (Reply 15): In this case, I disagree, especially in Row 1 on VX. I almost prefer their exit row to the Row 1 product, due to more "usable" legroom, and, more importantly, a much higher chance of having an empty seat next to you.
Well, I usually prefer exit row to F on a narrowbody for short/medium haul, if the service isn't going to be much different.
But I guess they could go:
Row 1 55" (current) pitch, even though it's a bit constrained.
Rows 2-4 50" pitch. Having flown AA on their 762s in J a few times, the 50" pitch is perfectly fine for the amount of recline you get and for flights of 6 hours or less.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
F9Animal From United States, joined Dec 2004, 3383 posts, RR: 35 Reply 20, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 2413 times:
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16): Not if you're barely filling 2/3rds of the plane
But, we really don't know the load factors since December, so there could be improvements. F9 always has a sale of some sort going on, and their loads are pretty nice.
VS11 From United States, joined Jul 2001, 753 posts, RR: 0 Reply 22, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 2279 times:
So far there does not appear to be anything really concerning. I am sure they have budgeted to be in the red for at least a year if not two - typically Virgin Atlantic allows 2 years for a route to become proftable. Also, in line with other Virgin brand companies and airlines, they do not advertise much and rely on viral marketing. The Virgin strategy has been tried and tested so many times before and it has always worked - if you have a great and consistent product at a great value for the customer, there is no way people would not give you business, which is why there is less advertising because word-of-mouth advertising is pretty effective and cheaper.
Orion737 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 23, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 2266 times:
Does their on board goodies as one member put it, include any food. A meal service on a US airline would be nice and seperate them from jetBlue and the like.
WorldTraveler From United States, joined Aug 2003, 6683 posts, RR: 29 Reply 24, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 2212 times:
Quoting Aerohottie (Reply 7): This load trend is what most start-ups go through
But the airline industry has never seen sustained $130/bbl JET FUEL. No one has budgeted for those prices for jet fuel and the cash is quickly flying out the window with loads that are that light.
Low fare carriers like B6 that have comparable costs but much higher loads are not posting much in the way of profits; VX certainly can not be, esp. considering they have huge start up costs that are unique to their operation.
The fact that VX is asking the DOT to allow confidential treatment of its financial data indicates that they are indeed threatened and are trying to prevent competitors from knowing how bad things are.
The current environment will certainly claim a few more airlines and it is very likely that newer airlines instead of the established network airlines will take the brunt of the hits. When fuel is as high as it is, there is no such thing as a low cost or low fare carrier. Further, since fuel constitutes a much higher percentage of costs for newer carriers than it does for network carriers, newer carrier costs are only within a couple percentage points of network carriers. Network carriers have the financial ability to defend themselves well given the small cost differences between themselves and newer carriers.
PHXtoDCAtoMSP From United States, joined Feb 2008, 177 posts, RR: 0 Reply 25, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 2214 times:
Quoting VS11 (Reply 22): The Virgin strategy has been tried and tested so many times before and it has always worked
Definitely not always. Does it often work? Yes. But ALWAYS? Definitely not. Virgin Cola has been a failure. Virgin's National Lottery attempt failed. Virgin Bride has been a failure. I think Virgin Cargo also went by the wayside. There are others. We did a case study on it in business school.
26 Orion737: they started out very cock sure about themselves, big launch and all that. I think they ought to go away from US territory and stop trying to take ove
27 VS11: Well, assuming that fuel cost is equal to all carriers, then it is not a factor in the financial picture. Besides, labor costs are usually larger tha
28 VS11: I agree that not all Virgin products have been a success so I should revise my post as "the strategy has worked for the most part". My point however
29 WorldTraveler: network carriers fly lots of international routes where the opportunity to recover fuel costs is much higher. Also, low fare carriers have artificial
30 Bicoastal: Just to put it in perspective....on the same routes during the same months, United has been running 90% plus load factors. Virgin who??
31 ScottB: What's so remarkable about the current situation is that fuel costs have now outpaced labor costs at virtually all U.S. carriers (with the exception
32 VS11: You obviously do not understand bankruptcy. Do you think that banks that have poured billions into airlines will miraculously say: do not bother payi
33 Halls120: I fly IAD-SFO and IAD-LAX frequently, and can attest to the crowded flights Bicoastal alludes to. Virgin must be bleeding red ink.....
34 Mariner: Okay, I'll bite. Which LCC's are carrying significant debt - other than mortgages for new aircraft? mariner
35 WorldTraveler: again, you don't understand bankruptcy. the bankruptcy process converts debt into equity. the debt that was shed in bankruptcy became equity (stock o
36 Mariner: Okay, I'll bite again. What "huge financial commitments" - other than mortgages for new aircraft? mariner
37 VS11: Well, while you are technically right my point is somewhat different. I guess I did not explain well what I meant. The debt is not wiped out - it is
38 WorldTraveler: sorry but the big network carriers have the ability to issue debt and draw down credit lines. Until VX releases its financial results, no bank or inv
39 VS11: Regardless how many times you reapeat it, it does not make it true. Not all debt is converted into equity. A lot of it is sold to distressed debt hed
40 ANstar: Most airlines odnt turn a profit in their first year of operations so I think you are indeed correct. If they are still having loads under 70% during
41 VS11: Big difference between CO and AA and UA, DL, NW, US . The borrowing costs of the last four are higher than those of the first two. I know they can ge
42 Mariner: I've read it several times, because I wanted to be sure of your meaning. In the case of Southwest, I believe that their total debt is covered by cash
43 Hiflyer: Interesting load numbers...thanks for posting. After too many years in the industry any carrier doing under 70 percent during Xmas is not doing well..
44 Luv2cattlecall: Food is free in F, and on-demand for a price in economy. A sandwich is $7, bag of chips $1 or $2, etc... Non-alcoholic drinks are free and unlimited.
45 WorldTraveler: I didn't say it was. Only the debt which the company decides to "jettison". hedge funds are merely the means by which the debt or equity is moved aro
46 VS11: This is entirely immaterial to the point I was making. And a company does not jettison debt. As debt claims are satisfied before equity claims, there
47 Mariner: Assuming you mean "threat", I fail to see that. The slots in the production line alone are, in themselves, of value. Since neither of the airlines yo
48 EA CO AS: Which is exactly why they're petitioning the DOT to keep their monthly data private. They don't want people to see truly how bad the bloodletting has
49 VS11: Incorrect. They do not want their competitors to see their financial data. And this is a perfectly legitimate reason as they can very quickly become
50 EA CO AS: Same thing. And as far as collusion is concerned, that's hogwash - if they can't effectively compete with established carriers whose financial data T
51 VS11: I do not know what rules you have in mind but all of the major airlines publish their financials as public companies. They are available for anyone f
52 LAXintl: The DOT has had long standing requirement for airlines to provide traffic and financial data - private or not. There are plenty airlines out there tha
53 EA CO AS: I agree that as a private company they may not have the same level of disclosure required of a publicly traded company, but there have been many stor
54 Live2fly83: interesting point, this is probobly a contention carriers in opposition of their request will cite also I tend to agree- I dont see the DOT creating
55 F9Animal: Yes and no. Depends on the quarter. It has been up and down, but many changes have come under their new leader. The changes will start to at least sh
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From United States, joined May 2005, 1597 posts, 
From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 25665 posts, 
Indeed. On about 3 occasions when business had me to NY, I really tried to book VX just to try them out, however F class was sold at the times I needed travel. With only 2-3 daily flights at the time unlike other carriers one cant simply be willing to wait an hour or two to the next available flight. 
From New Zealand, joined Mar 2004, 617 posts, 
From , joined Dec 1969, posts, 
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