Knope2001 From United States, joined May 2005, 1355 posts, RR: 15 Posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3290 times:
As requested in another thread, here are Virgin America's onboard loads so far (through December 2007). I don't think this information has been posted here. Remember, however, that onboard loads only tell half the story and don't say much about yield.
Load factors with an asterisk are for months with only a few flights (service started late in the month)
LAX-IAD
38.6%* october
49.9% november
55.2% december
LAX-JFK
85.8%* august
55.8% september
61.3% october
68.5% november
74.0% december
LAX-SFO
66.3% august
54.7% september
59.3% october
58.7% november
54.1% december
SFO-IAD
48.8%* september
66.4% october
66.7% november
63.1% december
SFO-JFK
81.9% august
51.6% september
57.3% october
61.8% november
65.6% december
SFO-LAS
48.0% october
52.6% november
55.1% december
Ikramerica From United States, joined May 2005, 15405 posts, RR: 48 Reply 1, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3271 times:
I figure LAX-JFK was doing the best. And the LAX-SFO loads show why they are doing the promotional give aways. Ouch. IAD also started out pretty poorly but looks to be improving.
VX still has to worry that in a market of high fuel prices and high load factors that they can't pull competitive loads on any route but LAX-JFK. I mean, those December loads are poor, considering how hard it was to find a cheap seat on any legacy in 2nd half of that month.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
LAXintl From United States, joined May 2000, 8867 posts, RR: 12 Reply 5, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3187 times:
Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1): LAX-SFO loads show why they are doing the promotional give aways
Yes and LAX-SFO is a route that really does not have much seasonal swings so the excuse that its winter does not mean much.
Going up against entrenched UA and SWA in the California corridor is not for the faint of heart.
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4): They need to seriously consider adding one or two rows to First Class. It's frequently impossible to get a first class seat on LAX-JFK.
Indeed. On about 3 occasions when business had me to NY, I really tried to book VX just to try them out, however F class was sold at the times I needed travel. With only 2-3 daily flights at the time unlike other carriers one cant simply be willing to wait an hour or two to the next available flight.
Only downside I could see with added F seats however how would they work out across the rest of the network which likely might not need them and lead to a need for subfleet for the LAX/SFO-JFKs which obviously limits operational flexibility.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
KcrwFlyer From United States, joined May 2004, 2158 posts, RR: 6 Reply 6, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3152 times:
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4): They need to seriously consider adding one or two rows to First Class. It's frequently impossible to get a first class seat on LAX-JFK.
That makes sense. If economy is running half full, and first is always full, maybe they should go ahead and add 3 or 4 rows to first. Its not like they'll miss the economy seats.
Aerohottie From New Zealand, joined Mar 2004, 590 posts, RR: 2 Reply 7, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3097 times:
I wouldn't read too much into these numbers.
This load trend is what most start-ups go through... high initial loads due to the launch, followed by a drop in demand and then a steady increase as the carrier becomes more accepted by the market. I good sign in all of this is that the markets are now increasing quite rapidly.
Ahem, US Carriers. The Hub and Spoke theory doesn't always work.
Ikramerica From United States, joined May 2005, 15405 posts, RR: 48 Reply 8, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3093 times:
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5): Yes and LAX-SFO is a route that really does not have much seasonal swings so the excuse that its winter does not mean much.
Winter? It was 95 degrees at my house the other day! It was even 85 in Santa Monica on Sunday!
But yes, this is a mostly business route, with of course some regional leisure traffic, and UA also sends connecting pax to SFO for Asia.
With such low load factors, there is just no excuse for not doing what I and others have suggested and adding more F seats. 8 more seats would take out 3 rows of Y (if they cut F pitch to 52 or so, something nobody will notice in a non-flat non-long haul aircraft...).
That would cut Y capacity by 18, something they won't miss unless LF are routinely averaging above 85%, and add in 8F seats of revenue vs. 18 unsold Y seats.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
Flybyguy From United States, joined Jun 2004, 1436 posts, RR: 1 Reply 9, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2973 times:
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5): Only downside I could see with added F seats however how would they work out across the rest of the network which likely might not need them and lead to a need for subfleet for the LAX/SFO-JFKs which obviously limits operational flexibility.
Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 6): That makes sense. If economy is running half full, and first is always full, maybe they should go ahead and add 3 or 4 rows to first. Its not like they'll miss the economy seats.
I see that maybe if they added the extra rows of first they can use those on lucrative transcons and just give the extra first seats as an upgrade to FFs on shorter routes.
"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
Ikramerica From United States, joined May 2005, 15405 posts, RR: 48 Reply 10, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2939 times:
Quoting Flybyguy (Reply 9): I see that maybe if they added the extra rows of first they can use those on lucrative transcons and just give the extra first seats as an upgrade to FFs on shorter routes.
They already offer "discount" F for the first few seats on each flight. On the flights with lower projected F load, they just sell MORE discount F seats.
There will be people who bite on them if the price is right. No need to give them away.
Or they could hold back 2 for last minute bookings on all flights, as that is what business travelers need. Right now, VX is useless to the business traveler who has the approval to fly F by their company. Those flyers are not going to choose VX Y vs. another carrier F on principle, because if they are seen doing this too many times, the corporate policy will magically change...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
LDIkaros From United States, joined Apr 2007, 75 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2900 times:
Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 3): The loads are low and VX have been running sale after sale after sale. Sounds like they'll run out of cash by early 2009 if not sooner.
Agree. Their load factors are horrendously low and with all their fare sales I don't think they make that much with their existing customers either.
Maybe extending their first class would help. Still, they operate highly competitive routes and are based in a very expensive region. Does that make sense for a startup, especially in a cut-throat business such as airlines?
KcrwFlyer From United States, joined May 2004, 2158 posts, RR: 6 Reply 12, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2890 times:
Quoting LDIkaros (Reply 11): Still, they operate highly competitive routes and are based in a very expensive region. Does that make sense for a startup, especially in a cut-throat business such as airlines?
Futurecaptain From , joined today!, posts, RR: Reply 13, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2866 times:
I've always wondered where you go to get this information. I know airlines report numbers to the DOT but their website sucks for searches.
Where is the info?
F9Animal From United States, joined Dec 2004, 2784 posts, RR: 23 Reply 14, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 2756 times:
Quoting Aerohottie (Reply 7): I wouldn't read too much into these numbers.
This load trend is what most start-ups go through... high initial loads due to the launch, followed by a drop in demand and then a steady increase as the carrier becomes more accepted by the market. I good sign in all of this is that the markets are now increasing quite rapidly.
Totally agree with you. I am actually quite impressed with the loads listed. I really expected about 30-40% factors after startup. If the numbers are right, I would be really interested to see what Jan-March have brought. If there is improvement by just 10%, they are certainly in line with a decent load factor for a startup. I have worked for a startup, and remember the first 4 months we hardly broke a 40% load factor. Some flights were at about 10%. It took about a year to get our loads in the 60-70% range. Consistency is important, and I think we just might find ourselves a winner here.
Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 3): The loads are low and VX have been running sale after sale after sale. Sounds like they'll run out of cash by early 2009 if not sooner.
Sale after sale is good. It attracts business, and puts a name out for them. Lets face it, it is a hard economy right now. I am really tight on my spending now, so I am certainly more likely to be attracted to a sale, than pay full price. I really feel confident about Virgin, and I really like the product they offer. I don't see them going away anytime soon.
Luv2cattlecall From United States, joined Sep 2007, 889 posts, RR: 0 Reply 15, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 2726 times:
This explains why they had flights on Dec. 19th '07 going for $139 a week before from IAD-SFO while all the other airlines were charging $300+
Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8): (if they cut F pitch to 52 or so, something nobody will notice in a non-flat non-long haul aircraft...).
In this case, I disagree, especially in Row 1 on VX. I almost prefer their exit row to the Row 1 product, due to more "usable" legroom, and, more importantly, a much higher chance of having an empty seat next to you. In addition, those damn gooseneck LED reading lamps are torture if your neighbors or the person behind you is using them! Add to that the FAs going in and out of the forward galley, and to that the fact that you can't use the empty screen next to you strictly for Google-maps ....
Quoting F9Animal (Reply 14): Sale after sale is good. It attracts business, and puts a name out for them. Lets face it, it is a hard economy right now. I am really tight on my spending now, so I am certainly more likely to be attracted to a sale, than pay full price. I really feel confident about Virgin, and I really like the product they offer. I don't see them going away anytime soon.
But it's better if you didn't have to have sales and could charge full price. However, that could actually be their strategy, to have more or less perpetual sales since that tends to increase the sense of urgency and feeling of value for joe customer. (Bose and those "Call in the next 10 minutes and we'll send you 4 Ionic Breezes for $500" commercials come to mind... your average customer would probably never consider buying 1 Ionic Breeze for $100....but when he sees 4 for $400 and things he's getting a $1600 value, time to add to the pile of credit card debt!).
It's called an AArdvark and not a B6vark for a reason...
AAJFKSJUBKLYN From United States, joined Jul 2007, 583 posts, RR: 1 Reply 17, posted (6 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 2449 times:
I find it weird that I have seen absolutely no marketing for them other then the sign at JFK letting you know what terminal they are at. I was speaking to a neighbor, and she was like who the heck are they and she travels JFK-LAX nealy 4 times a month, she works for one the studios...forgot which one. She is also a Platinum flier with AA and her company has an agreement with AA as well, so that could be why.
Ikramerica From United States, joined May 2005, 15405 posts, RR: 48 Reply 18, posted (6 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 2432 times:
Quoting Luv2cattlecall (Reply 15): In this case, I disagree, especially in Row 1 on VX. I almost prefer their exit row to the Row 1 product, due to more "usable" legroom, and, more importantly, a much higher chance of having an empty seat next to you.
Well, I usually prefer exit row to F on a narrowbody for short/medium haul, if the service isn't going to be much different.
But I guess they could go:
Row 1 55" (current) pitch, even though it's a bit constrained.
Rows 2-4 50" pitch. Having flown AA on their 762s in J a few times, the 50" pitch is perfectly fine for the amount of recline you get and for flights of 6 hours or less.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
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From United States, joined May 2005, 1355 posts, 
From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 22537 posts, 
Indeed. On about 3 occasions when business had me to NY, I really tried to book VX just to try them out, however F class was sold at the times I needed travel. With only 2-3 daily flights at the time unlike other carriers one cant simply be willing to wait an hour or two to the next available flight. 
From New Zealand, joined Mar 2004, 590 posts, 
From , joined today!, posts, 