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Will The A350 Be Delayed?  
User currently offlineENU From Netherlands, joined Nov 2006, 1166 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 7761 times:

The A350XWB is scheduled to enter into service in 2013. But how big is the chance that the deliveries will be delayed due to technological or organizational setbacks (à la A380 and B787)?

Will the A340/330 production line remain open next to the A350 and A380 lines?

Quote:
EADS' commercial aircraft unit Airbus risks running into delays for its new A350 jets after talks to sell German production sites to OHB Technology AG. collapsed, Die Zeit quoted Airbus works council head Thomas Busch as saying Airbus needs to fund plant investments that should have been shouldered by OHB in order to avoid delays in the delivery of the aircraft slated to start in 2013, Busch said, according to an excerpt of an article to be published tomorrow.

Airbus was planning to commit the plants' buyer to 700 million euros in investments to prepare for assembly of the new model, the weekly newspaper said, citing company sources.

Source: http://www.sharewatch.com/story.php?storynumber=263591

40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6961 posts, RR: 63
Reply 1, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 7759 times:

Never say never (!) but I have a hunch that the A350 is going to break this baleful run. Airbus have given themsevles a long time to get it right and they've set goals a little less high than Boeing on the 787.

I'm guessing that it'll be in the air and in service close to projected dates.

But who knows?


User currently offlineMoo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 4061 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 7753 times:



Quoting ENU (Thread starter):
The A350XWB is scheduled to enter into service in 2013. But how big is the chance that the deliveries will be delayed due to technological or organizational setbacks (à la A380 and B787)?

I personal consider it a possibility, but doubtful - Airbus have laid out a very pessimistic time line for A350XWB development - almost double that what Boeing laid out for the 787. I think they did that for a reason.

Quoting ENU (Thread starter):
Will the A340/330 production line remain open next to the A350 and A380 lines?

The A330 line will remain open for a while yet.


User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7088 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 7727 times:

I always thought Airbus was very careful with the A350 schedule much more than with the A380 or Boeing with the 787.


It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineFlyglobal From Germany, joined Mar 2008, 594 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 7650 times:

I would not consider a delay. Hope they have the lessens learned from themselves (A380, M400) and are watching the 787 carefully.

Without knowing I would expect that they have sharpened their process and milestones and will take missed intermediate goals also in a very early stage very seriously. The more generous schedule should allow some recovery loops.
Thats at least what I would do and what I would expect.

Some insider may have better comments.

regards
Flyglobal


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9210 posts, RR: 76
Reply 5, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 7582 times:



Quoting ENU (Thread starter):
But how big is the chance that the deliveries will be delayed due to technological or organizational setbacks (à la A380 and B787)?

I think significant risk, i.e. greater than 50% chance. The best thing going for Airbus at the moment is an upcoming downturn in the industry which will allow them to divert more resources to that program.

Quoting ENU (Thread starter):

Will the A340/330 production line remain open next to the A350 and A380 lines?

I don't think so, I think the A340 line will die, and the A330 line transferred to the EADS North America.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4864 posts, RR: 40
Reply 6, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 7509 times:
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Quoting ENU (Thread starter):
The A350XWB is scheduled to enter into service in 2013. But how big is the chance that the deliveries will be delayed due to technological or organizational setbacks (à la A380 and B787)?

I think this is very hard to predict at this time. The program is still in its early stages. Airbus is in the process between Structural Design Freeze and Detailed Design Freeze (I am not sure if I am using the right terms here, but that is how I understand it). Presumably somewhere around October 2008 the Detailed Design Freeze will be announced. So only after that the prototyping and production ramp-up of every individual component will begin. Let's hope they or their suppliers do not run into troubles like they had with the A380 or Boeing is having now with the 787.

The long period of time Airbus has taken before the planned EIS of the first A350-XWB suggest they are careful, so they have some buffers in the time line for one or two setbacks. All their planning at the various sites is about getting the A350 out in time. Also the divestment program is focused on that as Tom Enders says on the Airbus corporate website.

Quote: "There will be no turning back. Our site divestment and partnership objectives are part of a long-term business strategy to which we are fully committed. What drives our schedule is the A350 timetable. We are launching the necessary investments to secure the timely entry into service of the A350 with our customers," said Tom Enders." End Quote.

So far they have everything under control except for the false start the earlier A350 designs had. They seem to have overcome that now, but we will have to wait and see how the program develops further.

I hope for the best, as I do with all beautiful new birds (A380, 787), but there are no guarantees out there. If they manage this thing good, there is a very good chance that they will be in time, and if they are lucky, they could even be a little early with EIS. But that is pure speculation from my part, so please do not take this too seriously Big grin


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10177 posts, RR: 97
Reply 7, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 7475 times:
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Quoting ENU (Thread starter):
The A350XWB is scheduled to enter into service in 2013. But how big is the chance that the deliveries will be delayed due to technological or organizational setbacks (à la A380 and B787)?

As others have said, this aircraft is being developed over a much longer timeframe, with a much smaller change in technology, and a much smaller change in the organisational paradigm. Therefore there should be significantly less likelihood of a substantial slip to EIS.

Like the 787, though, Airbus plan a very aggressive ramp-up of production for the A350XWB, and THAT I have my concerns about.

Regards


User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 7370 times:

It is to early to call for delays however all i can say is that airbus would have done a great job if they deliver on their promises within 6 months of what they promised . I think the airlines will also appreciate that!!

User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3391 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 7322 times:



Quoting Bringiton (Reply 8):
It is to early to call for delays however all i can say is that airbus would have done a great job if they deliver on their promises within 6 months of what they promised . I think the airlines will also appreciate that!!

Why should a business be pleased with a capital goods supplier supplying less than 6 months late? You can't run a business as profitably if your suppliers do not supply what was promised when it was promised.


User currently offlineAirPortugal310 From Tokelau, joined Apr 2004, 3683 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 7287 times:



Quoting ENU (Thread starter):
The A350XWB is scheduled to enter into service in 2013. But how big is the chance that the deliveries will be delayed due to technological or organizational setbacks (à la A380 and B787)?

Check back in 2012...  boggled 



I sell airplanes and airplane accessories
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4864 posts, RR: 40
Reply 11, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 6934 times:
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Quoting AirPortugal310 (Reply 10):
Check back in 2012...

Yup, we just have to wait and see. There is not much use in speculating about an aircraft which EIS is still about 5 years away. Though personally I can hardly wait to see it and fly it. But that also goes for the A380 and the B787!


User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 905 posts, RR: 10
Reply 12, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 6887 times:

The schedule for the A350-900 looks conservative.

However:

(1) the overall program is very ambitious, perhaps one of the most ambitious in aviation history: Airbus plans to introduce a family of 5 different models within a very compressed timeframe.
(2) the planned production ramp-up does not allow much scope for error.
(3) I have some concern that Airbus may have made commitments outside its comfort zone due to the competitive pressure of the "Ghost-787". The 787 marketing bubble is to some extent unravelling, but it has to a large extent defined the A350. As a result, there is a risk that Airbus has overcommitted (just like Boeing) in terms of timing and in terms of the premature adoption of certain technologies.

Time will tell...


User currently offlineA350 From Germany, joined Nov 2004, 1101 posts, RR: 22
Reply 13, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 6775 times:

I think their planning is still quite ambitous. Airbus probably needs engineers currently working on other projects (A400 comes to mind, and that one IS delayed) and they need the big composite parts from factories yet to be sold. Tom Enders himself told that the factory sale is a danger for the A350 time schedule. As long as everything goes as planned, they'll be in schedule. But if they face a serious setback I see no possibility to deliver in time.

A350



Photography - the art of observing, not the art of arranging
User currently offlineRheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1968 posts, RR: 52
Reply 14, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 6749 times:



Quoting ENU (Thread starter):
Will The A350 Be Delayed?

Well, technically it already is. The industrialization of the program is behind schedule.


User currently offlineEpten From Macedonia, joined Sep 2007, 184 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6370 times:



Quoting Zeke (Reply 5):
I think the A340 line will die, and the A330 line transferred to the EADS North America.

Isn't that the same line?


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9210 posts, RR: 76
Reply 16, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6276 times:



Quoting Epten (Reply 15):
Isn't that the same line?

Yes, but separate aircraft on the production certificate, I don't see EADS applying for the A340 to be added to their future production certificate in the US.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10177 posts, RR: 97
Reply 17, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6134 times:
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Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 14):
The industrialization of the program is behind schedule.

That's not strictly correct, as I understand it. The sale of the plants is behind schedule, but the infrastructure investments are being made to programme regardless.

Regards


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4864 posts, RR: 40
Reply 18, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 5976 times:
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Quoting Astuteman (Reply 17):
That's not strictly correct, as I understand it. The sale of the plants is behind schedule, but the infrastructure investments are being made to programme regardless.

That is exactly as I have interpreted the latest information about this. Also it is in sync with what I posted earlier form the Airbus website:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 6):
"There will be no turning back. Our site divestment and partnership objectives are part of a long-term business strategy to which we are fully committed. What drives our schedule is the A350 timetable. We are launching the necessary investments to secure the timely entry into service of the A350 with our customers," said Tom Enders."



User currently offlineN174UA From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 994 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5370 times:

The earlier delays for the A350 were more significant, i.e. design-related and to how the jet would be manufactured. Now that those issues have been settled, any further delays would be due to "smaller" issues that wouldn't create a crisis of confidence among its top customers.

Boeing was first with the 787, and had a distinct advantage by having its first delivery (and thus orders) well ahead of the A350XWB. However, as delays linger at Boeing, this advantage will be greatly reduced, if not eliminated. While Boeing has a much larger list of orders, the longer the delays, the more likely those customers will reconsider the A350XWB.


User currently offlineVoyager747 From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 47 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5343 times:

Every aircraft is planed and drawn out on paper. But no one can say how exactly will it perform until it is flown for the first time. They know how it might perform but that is all. So till the aircraft is built and flown we need to wait and see. Right now it is too early to call a delay. But that is what I think.

User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6961 posts, RR: 63
Reply 21, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5257 times:



Quoting N174UA (Reply 19):
While Boeing has a much larger list of orders, the longer the delays, the more likely those customers will reconsider the A350XWB.

That's not quite how I see it. Few of the current 787 customers would have much to gain (in terms of delivery times) by cancelling their orders and replacing them with orders for A350s.

What seems more likely is that additional airlines will split their orders. The two planes are in any case targeting different market segments. Delays to the 787 will simply increase the likelihood of airlines ordering both.

Had the 787 EIS gone according to plan, Boeing may now be well advanced with the projected 787-10. As it is, they have more or less admitted that this project is now on the back-burner. This will push airlines who want a bigger twin than the 787-9 (British Airways and Qantas are the two obvious examples) to add A350s to their fleets.

IF the 787 launch had gone smoothly and IF they had been able to grown the design to a -10 (or even the mythical -11 sometimes mooted here) Boeing might have maintained their momentum and lead and kept the pressure on the A350. But that window is rapidly closing.

So who will keep their 787s but might now think of adding bigger A350s?

BA and QF are open secrets.
SQ, Aeroflot, Avianca, Vietnam and QR have already ordered both.
If NW weren't embroiled in merger fever I might see them as a future A350-900/-1000 customer.
LAN? Virgin? Korean?
(I take for granted that the Chinese contingent will end up with both types anyway.)
NZ and Jet Airways have new 777-300ER fleets so I don't see them going for the A350 any time soon.
Several other 787 customers are really too small to think of a mixed fleet.
Others seem highly unlikely to order an Airbus whatever happens to the 787. Can anyone see an A350 in CO colours?!  wideeyed 

So, we won't see any 787 cancellations but we will see A350 orders that might not otherwise have happened and may well see a growing number of airlines ordering both.

That's my 2.03070 Yen.


User currently offlineEA772LR From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2836 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4984 times:



Quoting Scipio (Reply 12):
(3) I have some concern that Airbus may have made commitments outside its comfort zone due to the competitive pressure of the "Ghost-787". The 787 marketing bubble is to some extent unravelling, but it has to a large extent defined the A350. As a result, there is a risk that Airbus has overcommitted (just like Boeing) in terms of timing and in terms of the premature adoption of certain technologies.

Time will tell...

Excellent point. However, looking at the situation Airbus was in at the time (beginning-mid 2006) with the delays of the 380 and an uncompetitive A350-"330 Lite", Airbus had little choice but to come up with exactly the plane that they did, the 350XWB. Whether or not Airbus over promised is yet to be known, but you have to hand it to Airbus for bouncing back with the 350XWB. If anything, perhaps the problems Boeing is having, and the technology developed for and from the 787 may indeed help Airbus with the 350.

Quoting PM (Reply 21):


Quoting N174UA (Reply 19):
While Boeing has a much larger list of orders, the longer the delays, the more likely those customers will reconsider the A350XWB.

That's not quite how I see it. Few of the current 787 customers would have much to gain (in terms of delivery times) by cancelling their orders and replacing them with orders for A350s.

What seems more likely is that additional airlines will split their orders. The two planes are in any case targeting different market segments. Delays to the 787 will simply increase the likelihood of airlines ordering both.

Correct. At this point and time with nearly a few hundred orders for the 350XWB, airlines will not be able to get 350s before their 787s even with the delays in the 787 program. I doubt we will see any conversions or cancellations. It wouldn't do any airline any good at this point in time. Compensation, possibly some 777s to tide airlines over, yeah I can see that.
The bottom line is, airlines ordering airplanes and planning new routes and new business plans and products around a new aircraft-ala 787/350, cannot afford to be "schizophrenic" when ordering. Delays are unnerving, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves. Even with 2 year delays, we didn't see a bunch of airlines cancelling their 380 orders other than FX and 5X, none of the pax carriers did.



We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 10
Reply 23, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4882 times:

I think if the OP ask the same question again in 3 or 5 years, he'll get a more educated answer. At the moment, there's no firm indication of whether it will be early, ontime or late.


A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 905 posts, RR: 10
Reply 24, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 4599 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 21):
Few of the current 787 customers would have much to gain (in terms of delivery times) by cancelling their orders and replacing them with orders for A350s.

True. However, don't forget the A330. The delays and uncertainty affecting the 787 program make a combined A330/A350 order a very appealing proposition.

You get a modern and mature plane early on, with a predictable delivery date, and you get a new generation plane whenever it happens to be ready.

Boeing doesn't have a similar offering that can serve as an interim solution, except if carriers would be willing to use the much larger and less economical 777 as an interim solution.


25 EbbUK : The collapse of the sale of Airbus plants may prove to be a bonus. Outsourcing has clearly not worked for the 787 and is the primary source of quoted
26 EPA001 : She would be good looking in their colors. The A350 would also look good in the colors of Delta Airlines. But both Airlines are married to Boeing so
27 Rheinbote : If you are tracking what specific investments need to be done at which point in time, you may come to a more differentiated picture. Think manufactur
28 Astuteman : Airbus have explicitly singled out the autoclaves as one of the equipment groups that have been ordered, as per programme, irrespective of the owners
29 StickShaker : I agree - but I think the ambitious part is the attempt to span capacities from 260 seats through to 350 seats with one design and one wing - esentia
30 PM : Airbus have no real answer to the 787-8 and Boeing won't match the A350-1000 with anything derived from a 787 or 777. The contest will be between pla
31 Dw747400 : The 777 isn't as good as the A330 for many routes, but its still an efficient aircraft. I have a feeling the penalties and concessions Boeing is offe
32 Post contains links ENU : Well here is the answer to the question for now: A350 on schedule according to Airbus Source: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...7822-23349,00.htm
33 Astuteman : Sadly, ENU, this is destined to be the future of the A350. It will now be "officially" deemed late on A-net from now, right up until the day it deliv
34 Whappeh : If it is delayed, I'm willing to bet the people at US will flip their lids.
35 Columba : QF, BA, VS and NW also JAL said they are looking at the A350.
36 Moo : I know QF said they were, but do you have any sources for the rest?
37 Columba : BA also said they are looking at the A350-1000 to replace the rest of their 747s, JL recently said they are looking at the A350 as well also Airbus sa
38 Wouwout : I think you're wrong. However I'd like to be proven wrong. Which medium to large airlines are 'closed to Boeing'?
39 Zvezda : SQ are waiting on further progress in both the 787 and A350 programmes before placing another order for one or the other. Every delay to either progra
40 SEPilot : I certainly hope that Airbus has learned from the A380 and from watching Boeing's troubles, but until Murphy is buried once and for all under all of
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