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Will $114 Oil Kill The A-380, B-747?  
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12064 posts, RR: 52
Posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 23298 times:

With the very high price of oil today, airlines failing (TZ, Aloha, etc.), or merging (DL/NW) are the days of the VLAs over?

While it is true the A-380 and B-747-8I have lower CASMs than most other aircraft, they are harder to fill due to the large number of seats they carry. the four engine A-340-500/-600 is in a worse condition, because it's CASM is much higher. So, will orders for these three airplanes dwindle down to zero in the coming months?

With fuel prices the way they are, and climbing, the only market left for these huge airplanes is charter operations, where the charter airline can fill an A-380 with 700 seats or a B-747-8I with 650 seats. I don't see a charter market for the A-340-600 because the best "cattle-car" type seating will be about 450 seats, or so (maybe 500 seats). I see the A-340-500 losing sales because it cannot compete with the operating costs and revenue generation capability of the B-777-200LR.

the B-747-8F will still have a market because of its load capability and range combination, there is nothing that can compete with it on that scale. While the B-777-200LRF and A-330-200F do have more range than the B-747-8F, neither can match the carrying capability, or nose cargo door of the big Boeing. I don't see the A-380-800F/-900F entering the cargo market because of the major redisign it would need to compete with the B-747-8F. But, there may be a market for converted A-380-800CFs as package freighters.

321 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSparklehorse12 From Australia, joined Feb 2007, 884 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 23295 times:

I really doubt it will ever kill airliners. What will happen is the low fares that started in the 90's in Australia will dissapear and it will be back to higher fares.


Airlines Flown : QF,NW,AA, CX, AC, MH, SQ, DJ, NZ, TG, PG,US, FJ, J8, AN, DD, JQ
User currently offlineFlyorski From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 987 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 23276 times:

I would think that high oil prices would mean more A380 and VLAs, because rather than fly 3-4 767s daily, a route could have one A380 and thus save money on landing rights, and crew.


"None are more hopelessly enslaved, than those who falsly believe they are free" -Goethe
User currently offlineCageyjames From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 278 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 23238 times:



Quoting Flyorski (Reply 2):
I would think that high oil prices would mean more A380 and VLAs, because rather than fly 3-4 767s daily, a route could have one A380 and thus save money on landing rights, and crew.

Seems like many here have been saying such a thing. Here at PHX, it is all those "little" A320 and 737s that waste fuel and resources. Sure we all like flights leaving every 30 minutes to our destination, but maybe that just isn't sustainable.


User currently offlineSmokeyrosco From Ireland, joined Dec 2005, 2112 posts, RR: 13
Reply 4, posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 23221 times:

I would assume the smaller ERJ's and CRJ's would be the first to go.


John Hancock
User currently offlineSingapore_Air From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2000, 13735 posts, RR: 19
Reply 5, posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 23224 times:

What is more important is that kerosene is now US$141 per barrel. The crack is around US$16 (crack = difference between refined Jet Kerosene and crude oil).


Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12064 posts, RR: 52
Reply 6, posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 23136 times:



Quoting Flyorski (Reply 2):
I would think that high oil prices would mean more A380 and VLAs, because rather than fly 3-4 767s daily, a route could have one A380 and thus save money on landing rights, and crew.

Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper for airlines to cancel 1-2 B-767, B-777, or A-330 per day, and only run two to each long distance destination? They would assure 100% load factors, no non-revs, and still be cheaper than operationg on A-380 or B-747.


User currently offlineAfterburner From Indonesia, joined Jun 2005, 1201 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (6 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 23055 times:

No, it will kill NW's (soon to be Delta's) DC-9s first. Big grin

User currently offlineZkpilot From New Zealand, joined Mar 2006, 4773 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (6 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 22902 times:



Quoting Afterburner (Reply 7):
No, it will kill NW's (soon to be Delta's) DC-9s first.

Until fuel prices drop and then they will as always magically reappear as strong as ever...  Wink (jokes of course)



54 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29690 posts, RR: 84
Reply 9, posted (6 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 22856 times:
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Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
With the very high price of oil today...are the days of the VLAs over?

No they are not.

But neither do I believe high fuel prices will drive the airlines of the world to consolidate flights onto a handful of A380s or 747s per day.

What we might see if prices continue to rise is a greater stratification of "leisure" and "business" folks where the leisure folks are directed to two-class VLAs doing primarily O&D between the hubs that are 20/80% or 25/75% Business/Economy to keep fares as low as possible while business folks are moved towards smaller planes that, while having higher CASM, can also command higher RASM by offering the frequencies businesspeople need to meet their requirements.

[Edited 2008-04-16 16:26:53]

User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8206 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (6 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 22822 times:



Quoting Singapore_Air (Reply 5):
What is more important is that kerosene is now US$141 per barrel. The crack is around US$16 (crack = difference between refined Jet Kerosene and crude oil).

Singapore, has the "crack" always been that high? What has it been over time? thx


About the thread topic, yes I think the $114 oil does hurt the A380, but more so the B744. It makes the classic 744 operator go in one of two directions -- do you really have a need for high volume of humans? If so, A380. If the human volume is not that big, the 773ER is really the no-brainer answer.

The A380 can survive in some markets just on its style and comfort alone. For all others, the A380 needs the 475-pax human loads to keep food in its oven.

At 80% load, a 450 pax A380 carries 360 people. A 773ER, with Thompson stagger seats, can carry that load with vastly better efficiency, and almost equal comfort.

Those Thompson seats will start revolutionizing things before long.


User currently offlineSingapore_Air From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2000, 13735 posts, RR: 19
Reply 11, posted (6 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 22715 times:



Quoting Flighty (Reply 10):
Singapore, has the "crack" always been that high? What has it been over time

I've only found the Bloomberg Jet Kerosene ticker recently so I haven't been following it that long.

However as Singapore Airlines hedges Jet Kerosene (unlike others who hedge crude, so you have to add the crack) the crack has been mentioned on occasion.

If I recall correctly, then it used to be around US$7 - US$9 per barrel from crude -> kerosene. Evidently, now it's US$14 or whatever. From what I've heard this is going to creep up even further due to worldwide refining constraints.



Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
User currently offlineSacamojus From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 228 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (6 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 22665 times:

Oil prices will not kill a single type of airliner. What does kill some of the airliners like the RJs are the ability to fill them at a high enough price to cover cost. For example, Suppose all US airlines only had 5 B744 as their fleets. The prices would be so high that it would easily cover the cost. The problem with RJs and other jets is that a company's business model is centered around certain variables, including oil, and position aircraft accordingly. When one cost goes, doesn't have to be oil, a particular aircraft may no longer be viable to perform given the business model.

User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (6 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 22636 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper for airlines to cancel 1-2 B-767, B-777, or A-330 per day, and only run two to each long distance destination? They would assure 100% load factors, no non-revs, and still be cheaper than operationg on A-380 or B-747.

Not necessarily at all, and what do you do in markets to make up the lost revenue from greatly reduced flights? Mind you, I'm yet to be convinced that many destinations actually need much of their frequency in the first place.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 14, posted (6 years 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 22373 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper for airlines to cancel 1-2 B-767, B-777, or A-330 per day, and only run two to each long distance destination? They would assure 100% load factors, no non-revs, and still be cheaper than operationg on A-380 or B-747.

That's what real airlines do. Of course, here on A.net, more VLAs is the solution to every possible problem an airline might face.  Yeah sure


User currently offlineUAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (6 years 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 22293 times:

It won't kill the VLA aircraft any more than it would kill the 737 and A320 series. In fact, I would say that it would kill the smaller aircraft more than it would larger ones because it would be cheaper to fly 1 VLA on a route per day and multiple flights on smaller jets. Not only would it ofset fuel costs, but it would also cut down on the number of times the aircraft has to be serviced and maintained at the airport each time it lands.

With the growing rate of air travel, I think we will start to see larger and larger jets take the skies because they are really more economical.

I remember however, after September 11, AA's former CEO, can't remember which one, was doing an interview and he speculated that with the increase in security measures slowing down the process at the airports, we would start to see larger aircraft servicing fewer frequencies, however, that has yet to be the case.

UAL


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 16, posted (6 years 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 22108 times:

....and here is the probable answer:

......"what kind of planes have traditionally been grounded 1st during recessions, oil embargo's, epidemics, 9/11, etc.?".....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineNorcal773 From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 1439 posts, RR: 12
Reply 17, posted (6 years 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 22037 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper for airlines to cancel 1-2 B-767, B-777, or A-330 per day, and only run two to each long distance destination? They would assure 100% load factors, no non-revs, and still be cheaper than operationg on A-380 or B-747.

That makes sense on the surface, but connections is some city pairs make all the difference. In other words, not too many people will wanna arrive in SIN at midnight to catch an 9PM flight 21 hours later just because the earlier 9AM flight was cancelled and merged to the later one.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 16):
......"what kind of planes have traditionally been grounded 1st during recessions, oil embargo's, epidemics, 9/11, etc.?".....

Umm, 777's?  duck 



If you're going through hell, keep going
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12064 posts, RR: 52
Reply 18, posted (6 years 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 22007 times:



Quoting UAL747 (Reply 15):
It won't kill the VLA aircraft any more than it would kill the 737 and A320 series. In fact, I would say that it would kill the smaller aircraft more than it would larger ones because it would be cheaper to fly 1 VLA on a route per day and multiple flights on smaller jets. Not only would it ofset fuel costs, but it would also cut down on the number of times the aircraft has to be serviced and maintained at the airport each time it lands.

With the growing rate of air travel, I think we will start to see larger and larger jets take the skies because they are really more economical.

I'm not sure that is correct. You can move the same number of passengers with, say, three B-737-800s, trans-continential (BOS-LAX) using less fuel and less in landing fees than you can with one B-747-400. With a 3X per day, you still maintane some flexibility for paying passengers.


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8644 posts, RR: 75
Reply 19, posted (6 years 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 21952 times:

I dont think I have seen a greater collection of false information on a.net contained in one post.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):

While it is true the A-380 and B-747-8I have lower CASMs than most other aircraft, they are harder to fill due to the large number of seats they carry.

No aircraft sold, including the A380s needs to be "filled" to make money.

SQ charge around US$14,800, US$7,000, US$1,600 for their R/J/Y fares on SIN-LHR-SIN (config 12R/60J/399Y), for a return flight to LHR, it would cost about US$290,000 in fuel, if they just sold all the R/J class seats, they would generate US$600,000 in revenue, i.e. about double the cost of the fuel.

Even if they have a 50% load factor in all 3 classes (6/30/199), it would still generate US$620,000. I have seen in the press SQ saying they have been having over 80% load factor on the A380 (9/48/319), for a return LHR trip that would generate about US$980,000, about 340% more than the fuel cost.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
the four engine A-340-500/-600 is in a worse condition, because it's CASM is much higher.

The A340NG CASM is better than most aircraft in service, including the 744 (compared to the 346). It is still a very efficient aircraft compared to most other types in service, just the 777 is more efficient again over some sector lengths, other sector lengths the A333 works out better than the long haul 777 & A340NG aircraft.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
B-747-8I with 650 seats

I doubt you will ever see that.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
A-340-600 because the best "cattle-car" type seating will be about 450 seats

The maximum number of passengers approved for emergency evacuation is 440 for A340-600 and 375 for A340-500

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
I see the A-340-500 losing sales because it cannot compete with the operating costs and revenue generation capability of the B-777-200LR.

The 777 and A340 are pretty dead, they are being replaced already by 787s and A350s in the mind of fleet planners.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
the B-747-8F will still have a market because of its load capability and range combination, there is nothing that can compete with it on that scale.

Most long haul high capacity freight is one way, a converted 744 can compete with that.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
A-330-200F do have more range than the B-747-8F,

Not in a million years with any sort of commercial payload.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
I don't see the A-380-800F/-900F entering the cargo market because of the major redisign it would need to compete with the B-747-8F.

Not really, if they can get it to lift another 20,000 kg or so, the economics change again (the A380F already carried more payload than the 747-8F), expect that to happen as the A380-800R/A380-900 get released to the market.

Forward loading is not required form a freighter, the 777F, 744BCF, 763BCF, A320PCF, A330F are all new freighter aircraft without nose loading.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineBlueFlyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3709 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (6 years 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 21926 times:
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Quoting Flighty (Reply 10):
Singapore, has the "crack" always been that high? What has it been over time? thx

It bottomed out in 2002 at about $3.60 and it's been rising ever since. Some forecasts see it as high as $20 by the end of the year, but others expect it to come down soon (see below).

The crack (which by the way is the process, or difference, between crude oil and any of its refined products, not just kerosene) doesn't change in lockstep with the price of crude. When prices go up and the crack increases, it generally means that the refined products are leading the increase and pulling up crude behind them (eg: an increasing auto traffic pushes gasoline prices up, which allows producers to raise their price). On the other hand, prices can go up while the crack decreases, which generally means that crude costs are going up and pushing up the cost of finished products.

All this being said, let's also keep in mind that, generally speaking, spot purchases (purchases paid at today's rate) represent less than 10% of total kerosene consumption. Most of their needs come from hedge (price locked-in in advance) and term (price based on a pre-determined index + an agreed-upon margin) contracts. What that means is that whatever the price is today is of relatively little importance compared to where the market is headed (or thought to be heading to).

There rarely is an agreement on that, however. As it stands now, hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to be worse than last year's, driving prices up, but other people still believe that a global economic downturn is coming, resulting in less demand for finished products such as gasoline or kerosene. Either event would lead to a decrease in the crack. In the first instance, a bad hurricane season will see producers increase their prices, putting upward pressure on finished products and thus reducing the crack. In the second, a lower demand in finished products will be reflected first in a decreasing crack and eventually downward pressure on crude prices.



I've got $h*t to do
User currently offlineRDUDDJI From Lesotho, joined Jun 2004, 1424 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (6 years 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 21840 times:



Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 4):
I would assume the smaller ERJ's and CRJ's would be the first to go.

Yep. This thread is backwards! RJ's will be gone first. I would suspect that here in the U.S. when the regionals contracts start coming up with the legacy carriers...more and more RJ's will be unloaded.



Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2138 posts, RR: 56
Reply 22, posted (6 years 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 21783 times:



Quoting Flighty (Reply 10):
At 80% load, a 450 pax A380 carries 360 people. A 773ER, with Thompson stagger seats, can carry that load with vastly better efficiency, and almost equal comfort.

Almost. Equal. Comfort.  rotfl 

Nice apples to oranges comparison, though.


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8644 posts, RR: 75
Reply 23, posted (6 years 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 21762 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper for airlines to cancel 1-2 B-767, B-777, or A-330 per day, and only run two to each long distance destination? They would assure 100% load factors, no non-revs, and still be cheaper than operationg on A-380 or B-747.

That is the sort of observation which seems to be common from people not involved in the industry. VLAs need to be deployed on market segments where their is sufficient demand. If you deploy a VLA on a 767/330 route it is poor planning, and I am not aware of any airline planning on buying/deploying VLAs for 767/330 routes.

Of course airlines will abuse a VLA on routes away from their prime role as the margin cost of running those aircraft on otherwise "downtime" between long haul flights is too attractive.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 14):
That's what real airlines do. Of course, here on A.net, more VLAs is the solution to every possible problem an airline might face.

VLAs are not the "solution to every possible problem an airline might face", they have their market segment today, and that segment is growing. Passenger demand increases at a rate of about 5% per annum, any route that has a 773ER on it now will be fair game for a VLA in 10 years after more than 50% increase in passenger demand.

People in the industry recognise this, however a number of the usual non industry observers do not recognise this.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineMagyar From Hungary, joined Feb 2000, 598 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (6 years 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 21730 times:

I believe what is important is the volume of traffic. High oil prices may cause recession so less people
fly, therefore, less or smaller planes may be needed. However, IMHO, it will be always more fuel efficient
to fly 1 full A380 than 2 full B777. The higher the fuel prices the more economical the VLAs are in this sense.
So the A380, IMHO, needs steady high level of fuel prices. Steady enough for the economy to adjust.
I believe recession is not caused by high oil prices but by the too fast increase and or lack of adaptivity.
High fuel prices that are bearable may cause people to change their behaviour, e.g. get rid of their gas-guzzlers and
do their activity in a more fuel efficient way. The same can apply to aviation, steady but still manageable
high level of fuel price may enhance the efficiency of the VLA-s and may just slow down/ kill fragmentation.


25 Norcal773 : Not if oil prices remain on the upward tick the way they have the last few years because ticket prices will double and people will not wanna folk up
26 Zeke : Fuel price today is about 4 times higher than what is was in 2003, despite the increase in fares and fuel surcharges, demand is very high.
27 Lufthansa : I think you need to back this up with some numbers. Last time I checked, the 744 had a lower CASM then any narrowbody out there. That's not to say th
28 Socalfive : A day is coming in the not too distant future where lower frequency and higher capacity will be the ticket, so I think the A380 and 744 will live long
29 Flighty : Well, the A380 is flying today. The 773ER with Thompson seats is tomorrow's technology. It is not flying yet! So we can wait and see on it Thanks so
30 Columba : With about 3L fuel per passenger on 100 km like LH said the 747-8I and the A380 are the most fuel efficient aircraft around. I guess with the big airl
31 Jacobin777 : ..yes, we know you prefer flying on your incoming Pee-Wee's... .. ..and after all, we do know A343's run in your family...bwahahaha..
32 KennyK : Let's get the effects of increased fuel prices into context. The percentage that fuel makes up of a legacy carriers ticket price is around 20%, so eve
33 Astuteman : Not if you put them on the correct routes. Presumably the airlines that order these aircraft have routes that they believe will "fill" a VLA (or at l
34 MadameConcorde : The barrel of crude oil has gone up to $115 and some cents. I am not sure about the BRENT. Must be somewhere close to that. I wonder what will happen
35 Rheinwaldner : If the redesign is the missing part it surely will enter the market because that part has already seen much progress before work has been postponed.
36 Spk : A380 with 450 seats is premium configuration used by SQ with Suites and new Business Class seats, among many other amenities. If you want to compare
37 LN-KGL : The impact of the the high crude oil price differs from country to country and currency to currency. No doubt today's price hit US based airlines the
38 RJ111 : Yes, high fuel prices will kill off the most efficient aircraft in the sky.
39 Burkhard : High kerosene price will kill the most inefficient planes first - CRJ200, E145, Avros, 737 classic, MD80, DC9, 767, A300, DC10, MD11. Every merger wil
40 Beaucaire : You will see more airlines ordering large ,fuel efficient aircraft rather than smaller ones. Iberia is the latest airline apparently considering the A
41 Burkhard : The clear winners currently are the A330, the A380 and the B77W. Airline buisiness is so risky that nobody needs uncertain delivery dates with unknown
42 Aerosol : Without reading the complete thing -> High Fuel costs mean more hub and spoke -> economies oof scale -> bigger planes as all other costs decrease Merg
43 NA : Higher oil prices will make the economy of size even more noticable. And favour latest technology like A380, 748I, 787 and A350. If anything, the sky-
44 Cpd : In my view, these high fuel costs will encourage use of high capacity planes like the A380 on longer routes that support it. But it won't be the be al
45 YWG747 : I personally feel that you wont really see aircraft in general go by the wayside any different then in the past. Airlines will proabably used a big pl
46 BrianDromey : Well, Im impressed guys. This is probably the most subtle of the the 380 bashing threads I have seen for some time. The new reality is that the small
47 Norlander : Interesting observation on how the weak dollar is handicapping the US airlines due to oil and kerosene being priced in dollars.
48 Africawings : Let's not forget that higher fuel prices will also diminish demand for travel, thereby reducing the need for VLA's or increased arircraft frequency (I
49 Zvezda : When airlines park planes during a downturn, the planes that get parked are the oldest and the largest. For example, the last time UA were in trouble
50 Teme82 : I say that it could kill older plane models and regional jets. But VLA's are actually benefiting from hight oil prize since they can transport more pa
51 Analog : Don't people call it the "crack spread" anymore?
52 Zvezda : In the past, airlines have tended to park the larger aircraft, not the smaller aircraft. The exception is when the smaller aircraft are much older.
53 Pylon101 : It will affect frequency of using smaller aircraft rather than VLA. Delta and US Airways shuttles used to fly DCA-LGA-BOS may switch to IAD-JFK-BOS us
54 Analog : That would kill the shuttles raison d'être; IAD and JFK are not attractive to the people using those flights. US and DL switching to IAD and JFK wou
55 GRIVely : I am sure the price of fuel, the impact of job losses on private companies, and the overall economies of the world trading partners are going to be of
56 Hloutweg : The poster and other people seem to think that somehow the price of oil and its derivates will rise only to affect the largest aircraft in the industr
57 Francoflier : Not to mention that the CASM of larger aircrafts can be lowered by increasing its seating density. Current 747 and A380 operator use a relatively sca
58 YWG747 : I can see an airlines point of few, but maybe for some routes (not all) using a bigger craft with less frequent flights could be the way to go?
59 Pylon101 : Thompson's seats are coming at the right time!!! I was wondering, though. How much re-wiring work would it need to install Thompson's seats into cabin
60 Zvezda : No, for more than twenty years now, the trend has been to smaller and more efficient airliners. The average size of airliners in operation continues
61 Zeke : Prove it.
62 Francoflier : Your point is true for US airlines, which, due to the heavy competition, are always severely hit during rough economic times. However we know than US
63 Congaboy : Sorry, I am just not convinced of this. I just flew from ATL to YUL, then ORD, then CLT, all on RJ's. My fare was $1800 USD. Granted, I booked less t
64 EXAAUADL : absolutely!!! high oil prices mean fewer flights and more A380s and 748s.....so for example say JFK-LHR had 12 763s daily.....5 on AA and 5 on BA...I
65 Astuteman : Repeat question? What, if any, planes have been parked by non-us airlines in past downturns? It would be nice to get some data from a representative
66 StarGoldLHR : It might ground the 787.. they need to get those fasteners in before the price of raw metals goes to high
67 Post contains links Baroque : http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6848&contentId=7033471 Try the page on "Oil: Regional refining margins" I think the crack figure also
68 RJ111 : The market is moving in no strong underlying direction. It's just efficient jets have come out in varying size at different times and skewed the marke
69 YULWinterSkies : I'd say all the opposite : mergers concentrate activities. If from 2 carriers, you're down to 1, less flights will operate on the multi-frequency rou
70 Bmacleod : Certainly the fuel-burn-ratio of 777s compared to the four-engine and heavier 747 is going to play a main factor in airlines decisions over the next w
71 Singapore_Air : To be fair to Zvezda, he does know what he's talking about. Although he hasn't stated it here, he has said that an airline that operates more frequen
72 Stitch : Since many of those airline's fleets are predominately (if not exclusively) of widebodies, they may not have the luxury to park them. I remember duri
73 SKY1 : Yes, but saying something wrong such as "The demise of the passenger VLA occurred a decade ago" is not the best way to gain credibility.
74 Analog : And flying smaller aircraft allows an airline to closely match capacity to demand, something that cannot be done with larger aircraft (one can tailor
75 MedAv : Eh? Not sure about the 'cutting edge' composite use. Its engines and size is what make it's CASM so low, I believe, depending on configuration of sea
76 Analog : You'd have an aircraft full of low-fare customers, which would not be compensated for by the lower CASM. The A380 CASM may be 10-20% lower (made up n
77 EXAAUADL : i agree...and there is precedent.
78 Astuteman : Your favourite airline has just ordered 20 aircraft of a class that was apparently "declared dead" 10 years ago.... Now there's foresight for you. Tr
79 Learjet23 : DIG THIS! Take it from an old playa' from the very first 747 flights.... as soon as the economy tanked, out came the upper piano lounge and steak gril
80 Zvezda : 20? Really?? When was that? I must have missed the news! An average of about 20 sales per year for more than a decade means that neither Airbus nor B
81 Singapore_Air : Hoorah for Singapore Airlines! I am unable to extrapolate anything as I have not researched technically the world of airline economics and nothing on
82 Jbernie : While ever you can fill or get close to filling any aircraft on any route and still make a profit.. ie not sellig the tickets at cut rate prices vs yo
83 Post contains links CAP2008 : With all this talk of the future of aviation, I'm surprised no one has said anything about any type of alternative fuel. The USAF wants a 50/50 synthe
84 Post contains links ContnlEliteCMH : Excellent analysis. I'll bet the 20% figure may be a tad higher now. Continental spent $1.048 billion on fuel and related taxes in Q107. Their report
85 Singapore_Air : I would add to this debate, as I mentioned before, I would suggest the argument which has turned into a big (less frequently) vs. small (more frequenc
86 Jbernie : You bring up a very good point though, suitable alternatives to flying and cost vs. benefit of such alternatives. The shorter the journey the more pe
87 YWG747 : With the exception of the A380 and B748
88 Swissy : It is possible sure but read more in to "will be more likely" but on the other end losses can be greater too, it is a fine line there is no perfect s
89 Lufthansa : Not necessarily. At the moment if you added it, the problem is frequency is not reduced, meaning more seats in total in the market place (think in ba
90 Ikramerica : It's also a matter of efficiency. Very small widebodies are not efficient. But large narrowbodies are. So you saw the 752 gain favor across the Atlan
91 AirNZ : I respectfully disagree on the grounds that the thread is largely about efficiency of aircraft fleets, not revenue generation of specific business mo
92 Singapore_Air : I'm sorry, either it's very late at night or something else. I don't understand at all. Could you perhaps elaborate? I think the business model of fr
93 AirNZ : As per normal, it usually is! Relative to what exactly?
94 Lufthansa : You've completely missed the point. The point is those reasons for downsizing are all true... in a lower oil cost environment. What I have tried to s
95 Lufthansa : Yes singapore Air, it is prevalent because it is the whole point of doing something is to make a profit and how you use something has a lot to do wit
96 Singapore_Air : Indeed. I was making the point that I couldn't understand why Air NZ (seemed) not to think that that wasn't part of the debate.
97 Jacobin777 : While not really "recession-related" in the traditional sense of the phrase, post-9/11, BA dropped capacity to ORD quite a bit. I flew ORD-LHR-ORD a
98 Flighty : A lot of us probably did some very cheap flying in that 1-2 year period. Transcons at $200, and the mileage bonuses were just insane as well!
99 Ikramerica : No, I don't agree with your point and showed that you were using short haul issues to try to prove a long haul trend. Just because someone doesn't ag
100 Astuteman : No, it can't. But what it can do is offer those premium pax an unmatched level of space and comfort, which will either a) command a premium, as SQ's
101 Lufthansa : Nobody is debating it for a second, nor depating the fact its very efficient. In fact the trend towards this aircraft and away from the 763 and even
102 Zvezda : I stopped flying between London and Paris when the Eurostar was introduced. I tried the Eurostar a few weeks after it was introduced and it was faste
103 Lufthansa : for short haul I can agree 100% with this, but for long haul I can't see how being forced to depart or arrive 3 or 4 hours earlier then otherwise wou
104 Post contains images Astuteman : They would. But the argument that you can put these suites in any aircraft ignores what happens to the rest of that aircraft's space. The sheer amoun
105 LAXDESI : I think the ultra rich will always try to differentiate themselves from the rich, and therefore demand for luxury suites on A380--an aircraft which i
106 Rheinwaldner : Another thought: In times of super mergers aircraft size will tend to go up. E.g. if DL and NW had a daily route with 767 and 333 the merged airline c
107 LAXDESI : Excellent discussion. It is clearly easier for WN to reduce frequency from 3x daily to 2x daily in the event of falling demand with narrowbodies and
108 Zvezda : All you've said here is that the WhaleJet is larger. That has never been in dispute. When SQ were evaluating the 747-8I, the configuration included 1
109 Astuteman : In the real world, surely it means one, OR the other, or some combination of both? Rgds
110 LAXDESI : I suppose my definition of ultra rich is those who do not own jets or charter jets. I can't think of a term to define people who own/charter jets.
111 LAXDESI : It will be an interesting set of calculations to see how profitable will the 748 be, if configured with a higher proportion of A380 type premium seat
112 Zvezda : No. It's possible to give far fewer passengers more space per seat with a smaller aircraft. Switching to a larger aircraft does not make it possible
113 Planemaker : Let's see... WN doesn't have any widebodies but only 737s that seat 122 or 137 pax. WN's average fare is $105.37 and has fares as low as $29 O/W. WN'
114 Rheinwaldner : Because you just comment about the flaws I assume you agree with the rest of the list. Of course you can easily find many examples where such a list
115 Flighty : In the 1990s, fuel was as little as $8 per barrel. So you're right, we had all sorts of enormous aircraft during that decade. If anything, that prove
116 LAXDESI : Interesting numbers. With a CASM of around $0.07, a seat on average length trip should cost around $45. The average yield at $105 fare and 73% load f
117 Zvezda : To the extent that the 747-400 replaced the 747-100/200/300, the demand was driven more by lower trip costs and greater range than by increased capac
118 Zeke : I seem to recall SQ saying that the 748-i with similar seating arrangement as the new product on the A380 would provide no more seats than the old pr
119 Post contains links Rheinwaldner : You mix demand and fuel. First you say demand was ok in the nineties. But because of fuel the 744 looks no longer attractive. That is true but the de
120 Lufthansa : And aren't those same factors also in play with VLA's?
121 LAXDESI : B787/A350 will provide both greater range and similar trip costs relative to an A380/B748 without the gamble of committing to large capacity on a sin
122 Rheinwaldner : Aha, there are other factors that can favor a VLA than size. Big chances for the A380 to score too! VLA's rule! The situation is not different today.
123 Post contains images Planemaker : 744s from just Germany, France, UK to USA for this week... LH 17 flts/wk New York area LH 7 flts/wk IAD LH 7 flts/wk ORD LH 7 flts/wk IAH LH 14 flts/
124 Astuteman : The reason 744's have stopped selling is they aren't efficient compared to newer products. From the mid-90's to mid-2000's, there either wasn't a com
125 Rheinwaldner : Thanks for these numbers! They clearly show that VLA possess a significant share of the market! On all those routes the 744 competes successfully aga
126 LAXDESI : Not really. Many of these older 744s are almost fully depreciated, and in accounting terms may have lower CASM than newer B777/A330. As fuel prices g
127 Zeke : If the B787/A350 have "similar trip costs relative to an A380/B748", A&B would have failed miserably, and would be producing the just about the most
128 LAXDESI : Then why isn't everyone ordering 747s instead of 777s? It must follow that CASM is higher for 747 than 777. Both aircrafts have similar range and cap
129 LAXDESI : I meant to say similar CASM and not trip costs.
130 Zvezda : Trip costs do not favor VLAs. If they did, not much else would be flying. If the A330 had maintained its CASM and had the range of the JumboJet, Boei
131 Zeke : 744 is off the market for a start, and the 748-i is more expense (747-8 285.5 -- 300.0 million), we have been buying second hand 744s and new 77Ws. T
132 Aither : These are short haul markets and you're talking about pax being carried by the airline, not the total demand on the market. Last 4 time I flew to 4 d
133 LAXDESI : The example you cite is for a scenario where the aircraft with higher CASM(777) may be chosen over an aircraft with lower CASM(748) as substantial si
134 Rheinwaldner : I don't understand the meaning of "mantaining CASM". Therefore all my considerations concentrate on the atlantic market. Thus the A333 and the 747 ca
135 LAXDESI : I was comparing CASM for 787/350 to 380/748, and not 77W. The graphs from another member that I have seen suggest that 787/350 will have better CASM
136 LAXDESI : It is probably hard to figure out how many 747s were sold for each A333 for the trans-atlantic market.
137 Rheinwaldner : No! Count the actual flown 747 over the Atlantic and then count the A330! The outcome is here:
138 Lufthansa : Bingo! I really think you should also ad 77W and A346 flights into this figure, as the 77W is only 11% smaller in terms of floor area and for modern
139 Zeke : Dont confuse CASK with fuel burn, not the same, fuel only represents about 25% of the total costs. Dont assume lower CASK with higher RASK, higher co
140 Zvezda : That is the crux of the matter. The last new VLA that provided a respectable RoI for its builder was the 747 and its success was due primarily to unm
141 Astuteman : But..... The 744 became surrounded by aircraft of similar size and better efficiency, such as the 773ER, A346, and latterly the A380. In my opinion,
142 LAXDESI : I don't think I did. CASM includes fuel and other operating costs, including ownership costs. Good point. However, marketing numbers are a good start
143 Zvezda : If you think about 20ish per year during boom times is a reasonable market, then you're entitled to your opinion, but it is not enough for Airbus to
144 Post contains links Zeke : Love to know where you got all the other costs from then, they are considered confidential. Boeing marketing use a different seat pitch than Airbus d
145 Rheinwaldner : After knocking down the huge "VLA will demise" story we turn to the obligatory business case consideration. It is Ok, in general I agree with you. Al
146 LAXDESI : I meant passenger capacity. 77W's ability to carry more cargo offsets the lower passenger capacity. In any event, 77W has substantially lower trip co
147 Post contains links LAXDESI : Quoting Zeke (Reply 144): Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 142): Perhaps 350/787 with 10-20% lower capacity than a 77W, and similar CASM might eventually kill t
148 Zeke : Cargo or passengers rarely at full capacity both directions. Not for us at the moment, the 77W is more expensive, the 744 is paid off. The A359 is ba
149 Astuteman : If you think 20 ish per year is representative, you're entitled to your opinion, too. But yet again, evidence suggests that airlines are quite conten
150 LAXDESI : My point is that a newly built 747(if available) could not compete against a newly built 777. It is possible that CASM may be lower on 747 for some o
151 Zeke : 744 still has the lower purchase price, finance costs would be lower. However for us medium term planning has the 744 leaving the passenger fleet, so
152 LAXDESI : So far SQ has chosen to offer a completely different premium class on A380; they are operating it side-by-side on SIN-SYD route. I wonder what happen
153 LAXDESI : And the reason 744 is leaving the fleet in spite of lower purchase price is the CASM and RASM advantage of 777 over 747. Here is a case where the add
154 Rheinwaldner : No it will not.
155 Avek00 : I respectfully disagree 100%. If anything, the carriers that are able to offer higher frequency and greater connectivity stand a greater chance of pr
156 Post contains links Zeke : Initial 787 aircraft will be going to Jetstar, not QF. How to you get higher frequency ? They hub all their Europe flights via SIN/HKG/BKK, you canno
157 Zvezda : If all four of the strategic assumptions that I listed somehow get reversed, then there is no need to change my opinion about the WhaleJet's business
158 Airbazar : You're assuming that matters to Airbus. I think we can all agree that it will take a huge turn of events in the VLA market for Airbus to have any sor
159 LAXDESI : I was talking about SIN-SYD route. CO seems to have a very high utilization of its 772ER by using it on a combination of some very long and medium le
160 RJ111 : Ohh come on, that's far from a certainty.
161 RedChili : There's one very important factor to consider when you're comparing narrowbody versys widebody sales, and that is that a huge number of narrowbodies
162 Zvezda : How certain are you that the 787-9 will have lower CASM than the WhaleJet if the same seats are installed in the same proportions? I'm skeptical, tho
163 Astuteman : They are where they are. Never in the same numbers as mid-size twins, but quite possibly enough to avoid their "demise"? ...... Even Boeing accept th
164 Post contains links RedChili : I found the article! Boeing blames production delays to Airbus A380 for sluggish sales of its 747-8I http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-sluggish
165 Lightsaber : CX is one of the few I do not see going with the A380. Ever. Its too easy to add another runway and terminal to HKG. (Not cheap, but its not an impos
166 Planemaker : Oh, so since facts don't fit your theory you change your assertion from an absolute... "As of now, very few transatlantic flights are operated by any
167 LAXDESI : I am going by wingedmigrator's data(available in his user profile) which indicates that 789 will have a lower fuel burn per passenger mile than A388,
168 Zeke : The new runway is already approved, and the second terminal was opened last year, still only part of the picture. QF do daily 744 service now that is
169 Post contains links and images RJ111 : You mean this...? With respect, that does not look particularly accurate.
170 Zvezda : For example, does the A340-600 really burn 16% more fuel per passenger mile than the 777-300ER? The numbers for the 787 also look optimistic.
171 Post contains links WingedMigrator : Before passing judgement, allow me to refer you to the numerous assumptions made in creating this chart. See in particular posts 1, 24 and 33 of this
172 Zvezda : 7% sounds about right. Why does your chart show about 16%? Is that due to assumptions about seat count per sq meter? Are you saying the difference is
173 LAXDESI : From Seat Guru, and for CX, I picked up the following information for CX's cabin layout: 773ER Class Pitch Width No. of Seats F 79 22 6 J 45 20 57 Y
174 RJ111 : " target=_blank>http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...39/1/ Oh it was no attack on you, the graph is more general and is not really focusing on the
175 Flighty : Good move. Did you find a good central resource for cabin floor area measurements? I have a database for that, but it's collected from various intern
176 Zvezda : A340-600: 314.2 sq meters 777-300ER: 330.4 (5% larger) 777-200 279.0 sq meters 747-400 372.0
177 Airbazar : I believe what he meant to suggest is that QF may shift a great deal of their hub operations from LAX to DFW and therefore not need nearly as large a
178 Jacobin777 : ...from the FAA "For the first time since 1998, domestic aircraft size increased in 2007 by 0.1 seats to 120.3 seats. The increase was driven by an 0.
179 KC135TopBoom : While DFW would be a better place for QF to connect with their partner, AA, LAX would still be the primary destination for the US. I agree that DFW i
180 Jacobin777 : ...given QF were going to start AKL-DFW (IIRC) a few years ago (2003), I wouldn't be surprised to see QF start DFW as their next expansion city in th
181 Baron95 : You guys have it all backwards. High oil prices are a HUGE POSITIVE for the airline industry. discounting the occasional spike due to hurricanes, disa
182 Planemaker : If "oil prices started collapsing" it could also simply mean that the current presidential election cycle is over. Joking aside, if you had read thro
183 Baron95 : There is an undertone in the whole thread that high oil prices is bad for air travel and airliners. Most of the discussion was on "it is worse for VL
184 Airbazar : IIRC, LAX is just at the limit of the 744ER range from SYD, during some months of the year.
185 AirFrnt : Lots of speculation today, but not a lot of it makes sense. That's because people are assuming that demand stays constant with cost. In reality the de
186 Airbazar : I would think it's the other way around, for 2 reasons: 1) Evidence points to exactly that. International travel is not declining despite prices goin
187 KC135TopBoom : But, the airlines do. there are many heavy twins like the A-330, B-767, B-777, and future B-787 and A-350 that easily match the range, but not the pa
188 Gigneil : DFW-SYD is comfortably outside the range of the 744, and with any decent payload also beyond the 744ER. NS
189 AirFrnt : I got one from ORD to LHR for $200 a few weeks ago. The change in International travel has been driven by growth in Europe and in Asia. If the econom
190 Aaresl : As we all know, crude oil price will never go under $100 again. But what happens if price reaches $300-400? It brings us back to 1950-60s, when air tr
191 OldAeroGuy : [ What airline or leasing company has 777's in the desert?
192 Zvezda : This is a great point! To answer the question of which planes get grounded first, one simply need look at which are the newest planes grounded in the
193 Post contains links MadameConcorde : Oil prices spike to record above $117 a barrel before slipping back http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080421/oil_prices.html If Dubya and consorts ever attack I
194 Sailas : AY will die bevause of this. Since they practially live on E70s, E90s, and all those a320family aircraft.
195 Burkhard : This just is not true. 25 years ago, the best selling planes were 737-200 and DC9-30 . 15 years ago, they were 737-300 and MD80. Now they are 737-800
196 Thegeek : I'd like to know that too. Even the 772A and 773A would find someone who wants them on the market.
197 Zvezda : The best-selling aircraft are not the average size aircraft. I didn't write that the best-selling aircraft are getting smaller.
198 Zeke : This statement is false, particularly in the context of long haul international travel, which this thread is aimed at with the A380/748-i. If you can
199 Airbazar : A very minor and temporary problem. The Japanese continued to operate high desity 747's on domestic routes throughout their economic recession. SARS
200 Zvezda : Absolutely false. Many, and probably most, corporations have policies in place that forbid members of the same team from traveling on the same flight
201 PlaneHunter : Only five 777s are stored/parked (at MZJ, RME, SIN, WAL and YMX). Three frames are non-ERs (two ex-UA frames with PW engines, one ex-BA frame with GE
202 Zvezda : How many 747-400s are in storage? How many airliners are in storage that are both newer and smaller than the 777s indicated above?
203 PlaneHunter : Currently 15. Three frames are earmarked for BCF conversion/or have been converted already, four frames were recently grounded by Oasis (plus another
204 Zvezda : Thanks PlaneHunter. The data you provided tends to confirm the theory that airlines ground larger airliners before smaller airliners. Another data poi
205 Astuteman : It does? Most of the 744's Planehunter described are likely to be flying again very soon.... Again, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. It would ap
206 Zvezda : That 747s can be recycled into freighters is immaterial to the question of which sort of airliners get grounded first. Efficiency relative to what? F
207 AirFrnt : UA That's where you fail to understand the point. The aviation market requires a high level of demand. If the deman is any lower then that, ie, Touri
208 GBan : Don't tell me you really believe that last sentence...
209 Zvezda : Of course. Talk to anyone who does route planning. The problem is that opportunity to split flights like that are rare because larger airliners tend
210 Astuteman : Indeed. Narrowbodys would appear to behave in a completely different way to widebodys. Almost as if they serve separate markets..... Regards
211 GBan : I think the major problem with your reasoning is that the number of travellers required not to be on the same flight is much too low to be of any eco
212 Jacobin777 : Not so sure if I got the point, but it would be a safe bet to say the vast majority of widebodies ordered are the B788 to A359 range. Which leave out
213 Airbazar : Because it can't be done A350 > A340/330 > A300/310 B748 > B744 B773 > B772 > [DC-10/L1011] B787 > B767 Basically, both major aircraft manufactures h
214 RedChili : Absolutely not! When an airline decides whether to replace a 747 with another airplane, whether it's a smaller 77w or a bigger 388, one of the most i
215 Zvezda : Except for wingspan, the 787-3 and 787-8 are the same size and the 787-8 is the fastest selling widebody in history. That's because anything smaller
216 Zvezda : You might want to look at how many airliners were leased vs owned by the airlines last time there were a lot of groundings.
217 Astuteman : Ah. Now I see it. Narrowbodys are the cause of the demise of VLA's (whatever that is). How could I not see it? Time for bed, methinks The 773ER's not
218 Airbazar : But comparig the narrowbody market with the widebody market is not fair. They are completely different markets and except for small exceptions they d
219 RedChili : It seems to me that you forget that the 788, which is the smallest widebody for sale today, is actually almost the same size as the DC10, which was c
220 Jacobin777 : ..hey there mate, now I certainly didn't say that. My point was single-isle planes now have been more than capable of at least flying TATL. 20 years
221 Flighty : The 788 is too big for the majority of those markets. If 757s cannot be found, the markets would be cut. The seats per Atlantic aircraft departure ha
222 RedChili : Do you think all passengers on 707 and DC8 airplanes were laughing on all their intercontinental flights? 20 years may be too short, but if you go 30
223 Zvezda : Shame on you for deliberately misquoting me. I wrote: Not selling nearly so well is not the same as not selling. You know better. Boohoo. We were dis
224 Astuteman : My view is:- This thread is about the "killing" of the A380/748i The trend of "reducing aircraft size" is being used to support the "demise" of these
225 GBan : Oh, Yes: It's a given that VLA will soon disappear and this will result in reduced average aircraft sizes
226 Astuteman : Indeed we were. But it's worth remembering why.......... Otherwise we risk skewing the results... Regards
227 LAXDESI : More of B744s have been replaced, or scheduled to be replaced, by B777s than A380/B748. Going forward, more of the B744s, and 777s will be replaced b
228 Thegeek : I also cannot believe you said that. (a) What corporation in their right mind would willingly split their team over 2 flights? (b) splitting one flig
229 Zvezda : The one that wanted to earn a higher return for its shareholders. I wrote "... at the same cost, ...." It is not inevitable that a smaller airliner w
230 Thegeek : Well, an Il-86 would have a higher CASM than a 738. But it is true for an equivalent technology level.
231 Jacobin777 : ....it practically went to zero and how has seen an increase thanks to the likes of NW, DL, and now BA with their "Open Skies". Hence why I stated "a
232 RedChili : Yes, the 757 size has seen a small rebound on 7-8 hour flights (the very low end of long-haul flights), but in the grand scheme of things you have to
233 Astuteman : If you read carefully, my friend, I never said you did, nor would I. I know you too well for that. Regards
234 Astuteman : I understand this, but Asia/Pacific carriers don't really use 744's (or the A380) for the kind of short-haul domestic sector that was replaced in the
235 Jacobin777 : It is now, as there are planes which have the capabilities (such as range) which no other planes did at the time. KLM is still going to a smaller air
236 RedChili : I don't think the range was any factor at all for domestic flights in the USA. Any 707, DC8, DC10 or Tristar had the range for transcontinentals in t
237 Jacobin777 : Apologies if I misinterpreted what you stated Astuteman, sometimes I "get in front of myself" reading to quickly and misinterpret a comment-i.e.-whic
238 Zeke : Look at the reason for using the VLAs on those routes.. One of the main reasons is the margin cost of doing is better than letting it sit around ll d
239 Zvezda : Fortunately, technology continues to progress. CFRP fuselages permit a dramatic improvement in efficiency. As a result, at least some 787 and A350 mo
240 Rheinwaldner : For the two I worked for (big ones > 30000 employees) there is no such rule. Thus: Fleet average. Specific for each airline. Nonsense. What aircraft
241 Thegeek : This is actually a pretty good point. It is likely that the A350-1000 will beat the A388 on CASM, and that's where you'll need the A389 to get any mo
242 RedChili : Zeke, I've often been thinking about the difference between Asia, Europe and North-America and the size of airplanes used on those routes. I've been
243 Zvezda : I think that's a bit of an overstatement. I suspect that even when the A350-1000 is in service, there may still be some A380-800 sales, but they will
244 Baron95 : Incorrect in this case. You are making the mistake of using closed end modeling. What you wrote is true where the number/size/shape of the consumer m
245 Astuteman : OK, so we'll see the demise of 2 x 744's.... ?????? So the substantial CASM improvement of the A350 and 787 is mainly a result of having a CFRP fusel
246 LAXDESI : Maybe. Seems like it won't take much to dramatically improve an A320 with a right-sized XWB engine which can fit under its revised CFRP wings.
247 Singapore_Air : Singapore Airlines does have contingency plans and a flexible fleet and workforce that can accomodate any notable downturn in any geographic areas. B
248 Zvezda : That's not what I wrote. Your deliberately misquoting me and trying to put words in my mouth make it very difficult to have a production discussion w
249 VinnieWinnie : Lol very weak argument! 20 odd people in the fortune 100 top company list certainly does not warrant an increase in frequency between certain city pa
250 WingedMigrator : Just what lawyerly parsing of your statement would prevent a reasonable human being from concluding that you believe that most of the CASM improvemen
251 Astuteman : Nothing deliberate about it, Zvezda. If.. Doesn't mean "The substantial CASM improvement of the A350 and 787 is mainly a result of having a CFRP fuse
252 Airbazar : The FAA's assertion does not contradict the fact that aircraft are getting bigger and that the VLA market will stay here for a while. All it says is
253 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Non-sequitur. I guess I should have expressed myself clearly. The widebody twins of the past 20-25 years have certainly been flying routes of B747's
254 Norcal773 : We sure missed you while you were gone buddy, the threads were boring without Jcobin777's pictures. . By all means, welcome back sir.
255 Zeke : Sent you a reply via PM ( just so others do not think I have ignored you) Not really, the large aircraft are in operation 24/7, often narrow bodies s
256 Jacobin777 : ....thanks bud, but I just don't know how long it will last though...especially when I start racking up flights on MASSIVES and MERRIMANS soon... Rea
257 Zvezda : I write what I mean and I mean what I write. So please don't get upset. Apology accepted. I hope we can all agree that the CFRP fuselages are a major
258 RedChili : I think there must be some misunderstanding between us... Sure. But it's also a fact that 747s are flying routes today that used to be flown by small
259 Zeke : I do not believe the collection of statements are factually correct. When the 787 came out much fanfare was made on here of the weight reduction by u
260 Astuteman : And what's he going to do when we can no longer see A330's in NW colours? Well, no. Not really. I think the CFRP fusealges play a very small part in
261 Jacobin777 : Probably unfortunately. Very, very few. The trend is the opposite direction. AirBerlin is an LCC with a different fleet. FL and and ED are two LCC's
262 Airbazar : I think there'll be even more sad faces from seeing DL's livery on an airbus
263 Jacobin777 : LoL..probably, however most know DL in probability will once again become an "all Boeing' carrier in the future. Had NW not purchased (and options) f
264 LTBEWR : To me, for most of the routes used by 747's and to be used by the A380, they are already heavily loaded by higher paying business flyers that will be
265 WingedMigrator : The reduction in MEW is hard to detect on the face of it-- based on Boeing specs the 788 weighs 15% more per seat than the 763ER, and 5% more per uni
266 AutoThrust : Sorry for my ignorance but if this is true and CFRP doesn't lower the MEW by a big factor i really wonder if Airbus will be able to achieve the weigh
267 Jacobin777 : FWIW, lower lifetime maintenance of the frame was a large selling point also. I dont' think it was CFRP+NexGen engines =25% reduction. I think it has
268 Zeke : The main difference like with the 787 is not in the fuselage, it is in the wings..... The engines on the A35XWB are more efficient than the 773ER, ae
269 LAXDESI : I am not sure I understand your point above. A332 DOW is higher by 36,000 lb. On a 6,000nm mission, 788, as per widebody's calculations, is able to c
270 LAXDESI : Good points. Are many operators likely to put 9 across, in Y class, on 788? If yes, then 788 should be able to improve on its CASM advantage over A33
271 Astuteman : When a plane has bigger heavier, but more efficient engines than its predecessor, and a bigger, more efficient wing than its predecessor, you might n
272 Astuteman : That is probably one of the 787's bigger advantages - flexibility of Y-class layout. Regards
273 Post contains links Zeke : Incorrect, the latest spec OEW for the 788 (sept 2007 version) was 114,532 kg (original at launch was 108,499 kg). The A330-200 OEW is 116 740 kg, di
274 Astuteman : Which possibly illustrates my point about the Airbus website data being slightly out-of-date - it shows 119 700 kg Rgds
275 Zeke : My understanding is the planning documents between A&B have similar "rules" to build them (pitch, toilets, galleys etc) and the Airbus web site uses
276 Rheinwaldner : I repeat once again: The Twins surely started to fly routes that were flown by VLAs before (because normal network structure shifts or maybe a small
277 Rheinwaldner : [Edited 2008-04-23 00:00:38]
278 LifelinerOne : KLM isn't a good example as they are flying combi B744's. In passenger numbers, the replacement planes (B772/B773) carry almost the same (or more) th
279 Zvezda : Thanks for bringing this back on topic. In the 1990s, 747-200s were just about as efficient as they were in the 1980s. If it was a good deal to repla
280 Post contains images Zeke : They don't, it is just another gross generalization that is not factual. We just retired a VLA form our fleet (B-HVY), we bought it second hand from
281 Astuteman : I'm not sure what was so "off-topic" about discussing the scale, or otherwise, of the alleged "game-changing" CASM abilities of the new "CFRP" mid-si
282 Rheinwaldner : The 744 was offered >1990 per my understanding. I simplified things by assuming the 742 is the VLA of the seventies, 743 the VLA of the eighties and
283 Thegeek : Simple. The 747-400 EIS was Feb 1989.
284 RedChili : Very strange statement. I hope you are aware that the first 744 was delivered in January 1989, so the 744 was actually only available in the last yea
285 Post contains links RedChili : It seems that the opposite is true, in fact: Analysts warn of impeding 50-seat regional jet glut http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...ing-50-seat-r
286 Post contains links AutoThrust : Wow thats much less, this explanation makes lot of sense. I have figured the A380 winbox weights 11tons while having 40% CFRP(4,4t) content, has save
287 Zvezda : The point I was trying to get at is that airliners generally get replaced when a replacement with a sufficient improvement in CASM to justify its pur
288 Rheinwaldner : The impact of fuel prices could even be twofold. Directly as you write and indirectly by industry consolidation. Something along this line: High fuel
289 Zeke : Yet another statement which is not correct.... Try explaining why so many DC9s, MD80s, DC-8s, 727s etc are still flying ? Lots of aircraft of similar
290 Thegeek : This is NOT surprising. Notice how no turboprops are being parked due to fuel prices. If they start parking 73G or larger, then I'll be surprised.
291 Rheinwaldner : I agree that is probable. If we assume that more or less linear CASM improvements are achieved over the time this means that the resulting cycle dura
292 Cloudyapple : It's too easy to make such a bold a statement. You should substantiate the claim or refrain if you do not know the issues associated with it.
293 Airbazar : The 773ER is the 744 replacement in a lot of markets and one reason it's not selling so well should say something about the 744's capabilities. We sh
294 Hloutweg : Relative to its competitor although it's an exageration. I was just quotting the critiques against the very efficient A340-600 which to the eyes of i
295 Rwessel : But what else are you going to do with the 742s and 744s other than fly them across the Atlantic (and the Pacific)? Unless the CASM of the newer airc
296 Jacobin777 : However, the plane size has gotten smaller, so they have indeed decreased the size of the plane. At the end of the day friend, KL is removing a VLA a
297 Zeke : Most of the big carriers with high increases in RPKs are the same, CX is the only one in the top 10 that has not ordered the A380. Time will tell, I
298 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Now that I think about it a bit more, you could be correct, but I would like to see some more data/proof on it. That forecast was years ago. Of cours
299 Astuteman : The chart you showed conveniently ignores the fact that Airbus sold 31 pax A380's last year. With 3 booked so far, Grupo Marsans 6 yet to be booked,
300 Rheinwaldner : It is not the case that suddenly a situation appears like this "Oh damn, our VLA look suddenly so bad against our new twins, were shall we just deplo
301 Baroque : The "capacity until the really great twins arrive" argument began to wear a bit thin in 2007 as orders just continued to rolll in, especially as the
302 Astuteman : Looking on, it appears more and more that the "really great twins" actually arrived in the mid-to-late 90's IF (he stresses) the rumoured 14 000 lb o
303 OldAeroGuy : A strange statement. If you look at the 773ER sales record from the first sale to present, you'll see that 364 have been sold in the 7.25 years from
304 OldAeroGuy : During a similar time period (7.25 years), the 744 sold: 744: 303 744D: 19 744M: 45 744F: 20 Total: 387 This is about twice the A380 sales over the s
305 Astuteman : What was the launch to EIS timescale for the 744? Regards
306 Zeke : ATW normally publishes world airline reports in July, it is a useful comparison. I should add for the top RPK airlines, I was specifically referring
307 Airbazar : KL is only part of the company. You're conveniently leaving out the other part of the company (AF) Perhaps my statement wasn't clear enough. The 773
308 OldAeroGuy : First sale was to Northwest in Oct. 1985 and first delivery was also to Northwest in Jan. 1989, about 3.25 years. This makes 744 Launch to EIS about
309 OldAeroGuy : Your initial statement was about the relative slow sales for the 773ER, not the 773. See below. The 773ER is the potential 744 replacement as the 773
310 Baroque : And if the tankers to the USAF goes ahead, where they will be built.
311 Post contains links Jacobin777 : Hmmm..I did source the chart. I didn't want to be charged with providing for false data... Maybe there needs to be a change in wikipedia? http://en.w
312 Astuteman : The alternative way of looking at it (which I naturally favour, of course), is that in the period you describe, the A380 has effectively lost 3 1/2 y
313 WingedMigrator : No, the Wikipedia chart is correct. If you read the fine print, it includes a penalty of -10 for the UPS cancellation, which was booked in 2007. The
314 Airbazar : Ok, then I was wrong. The perception, and maybe that's just me, is that the 773 line was not selling quite as well. Nevertheless, this is another fac
315 OldAeroGuy : How many A380's do you expect to be sold per year over the next 7 years? I think that Airbus would say 27-30 would be a sales triumph. If we throw ou
316 Zeke : You are correct, the 773 did not sell well, but the 773ER on the other hand is. I think they would be very happy with that, it is a comfortable produ
317 Jacobin777 : A level which Boeing isn't achieving at this point in time (at least with the -I version). Airbus hasn't really changed their numbers, but in the pas
318 LAXDESI : Shouldn't we normalize aircraft sales figures by seat counts?
319 OldAeroGuy : Sounds like a great project for you to take on. I'll be happy to review the results (as will many others).
320 WingedMigrator : This exercise is futile if you fail to take into account such basics as the Breguet Decomposition to obtain the spectral seating density. You might a
321 Post contains links Diamond : Please continue the discussion in "Part 2", as this thread has reached 320+ replies. http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/
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