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Southwest In 15 Years  
User currently offlineEarly Air From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 611 posts, RR: 1
Posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 2295 times:

I was wondering where all of you think Southwest Airlines will be in 15 years from now. I think that they will be pretty much the same as now for ever. I think Southwest may take on a few more cities. One of then needed in New York JFK or La Guardia. However, I think Southwest is done with and major expansions.


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68 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineChepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6225 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 2096 times:

I doubt you wil ever see Southwest serving La Guardia and JFK . Hopefully one day I might seem them flying to Puerto Rico , as there low fares are badly needed here.
But that us highly improbable.
Chepos
Puerto Rico



Fly the Flag!!!!
User currently offlineSquaremile From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2045 times:

look for WN to continue growing by 2 to 3 new cities a year, probably in the northeast and southeast. JFK and LaGuardia are highly unlikely. Deliveries of about 25 aircraft per year will add routes and frequency, mostly to existing cities. Southwest is pretty immune from merger or takeover. The other airline's merger's will make SWA even more sought after in some monopolized markets.
Regards,
squaremile


User currently offlineOPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2012 times:

Squaremile is right on target, I think. Supposedly, SWA has 125-150 cities desiring and/or lobbying for service, so even if only half of these were economically viable traffic-wise, that's still alot of domestic growth at 2-3 cities per year. If they ever decide to go "International Lite" and hit Canada, Mexico, or the Carribean, that's even more potential.

In 15 years, their oldest -300s and -500s will also start turning the 30-year old mark, and will probably start getting replaced. Wonder if Boeing till be on the NNG (Next-Next-Generation) 737 by then...



User currently offlineWe're Nuts From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5722 posts, RR: 19
Reply 4, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 2009 times:

Southwest won't go international for a long, long time. Customs would shoot those 20 minute turn-arounds to hell.


Dear moderators: No.
User currently offlineVirginA340 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 15 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 1964 times:

Puerto Rico is a great for SWA since PAN AM 3 is having no problems or very little and Puerto Ricans have American passports and PR is an American Commonwealth. I hope SWA and JB will follow PA 3's lead into PR and beat AA and it's piracy and high fares. The fares will be even higher after TWA is gone and the only competitor left is CO which flies to SJU out of EWR while AA flys out of JFK-SJU and sometimes EWR as well. I would like SWA to fly into Trenton as well. The last carrier TTN had was Eastwind (all 737 airline) Atlantic City would be another good one as well.


"FUIMUS"
User currently offlineRedngold From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 6907 posts, RR: 44
Reply 6, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1954 times:

I'd also like to see WN serve some of the Northern Plains and Mountain States. Northwest has a lock on most of these places. But I'm just not sure how much service those places can support.

redngold



Up, up and away!
User currently offlineOPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1951 times:

SWA might not be too adversely affected by some routes outside of the contigious 48 states. SJU has already been mentioned, and there's also STX in the USVI.

Last time I came out of both Calgary and Toronto, we "pre-cleared" U.S. Customs before we even boarded. On arrival back in the USA, we deplaned into the domestic terminal. Presuming this set-up was available at other Canadian and Mexican airports, it doesn't appear that it would delay SWA ops much, especially since it'd all be on the front-end of the flight, and SWA is now using :20 minute (or longer) turns.

Be interesting to see what happens...


User currently offlineROCjetBlue From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1940 times:

They go chapter 11 and jetBlue takes over there opperations!!! lol j/j

User currently offlineEarly Air From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 611 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1921 times:

I could see Southwest growing a lot in the amount of aircraft they own and routes. I can see in a LONG TIME mabye southwest accuring a few 767's or so and conquor Hawaii

User currently offlineAmtrakGuy From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 500 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1918 times:

I see SWA getting RJs to feed the semi hubs all around the country.
Dave


User currently offlineTom in NO From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 7194 posts, RR: 33
Reply 11, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 1907 times:

One thing's for sure.....they won't be flying to Wichita, despite the fact that ICT's people have been after SWA for years and years.  Smile

Tom in NO (at MSY)



"The criminal ineptitude makes you furious"-Bruce Springsteen, after seeing firsthand the damage from Hurricane Katrina
User currently offlineRedngold From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 6907 posts, RR: 44
Reply 12, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 1901 times:

Why not a city in every state? (ex. perhaps Hawaii and Alaska...)
To go with the populist ideology.

redngold



Up, up and away!
User currently offlineDsmav8r From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 579 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 1894 times:

I too would love to see WN serve smaller midwestern cities like ICT and DSM. Those cities could at least support MDW, STL, and LAS service. WN has a VERY weak presence in the Great Plains states, only serving the larger cities like MCI and OMA.

Oh well, one can always dream......  Smile



To most people, the sky is the limit. To those who love aviation, the sky is home
User currently offlineSamurai 777 From Canada, joined Jan 2000, 2458 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 1886 times:

Might it be possible that WN would expand to serve airports in Alaska and even Hawaii? WN wouldn't even need 767s to fly to Hawai'i! Look at Aloha's 737-800 service from Oakland to Hawai'i.

One other question: Tom in NO, why isn't WN going to serve Wichita, KS? There's about a couple hundred thousand people in that city, so that's a market worthy of Southwest.


User currently offlineTom in NO From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 7194 posts, RR: 33
Reply 15, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 1889 times:

Samurai777: good question, and one that I've been asking for years. I've know airport management people at ICT for years, and they've been asking Herb to serve ICT for many years.

To me it's a no-brainer...extraordinarily high fares exist, a large market area, and it meets the Wright Amendment restrictions for DAL. Of course, SWA doesn't comment on why it won't fly somewhere, but their reasons might include a relative proximity to either OKC, TUL, or MCI (proximity I guess meaning a 3 or 4 hour drive!).

Tom in NO (at MSY)



"The criminal ineptitude makes you furious"-Bruce Springsteen, after seeing firsthand the damage from Hurricane Katrina
User currently offlineDsmav8r From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 579 posts, RR: 7
Reply 16, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1875 times:

I agree with you Tom... There is no reason why WN shouldn't serve ICT. It is a rather isolated city with a metro area of around 600,000, which is larger than a lot of WN cities, plus extremely high fares. The closest city to ICT with WN service is TUL I believe.

I just don't think WN is interesting in expanding in the midwest, where it may be needed the most.



To most people, the sky is the limit. To those who love aviation, the sky is home
User currently offlineDCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4509 posts, RR: 34
Reply 17, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1865 times:

Southwest will proably be a bigger and denser version of its present form in 15 years. They'll probably add Canada, Mexico and Caribbean destinations if they can be added without a substantially higher per-pax operating costs than US airports.

Don't look for WN to enter LGA or JFK. They'll probably keep up the 'bracketing' strategy, say Newburgh for New York, Trenton for Philly, and if they go to CA Hamilton for Toronto. Also possibly Rochester MN for Twin Cities as to avoid a direct brawl with NW. (Driving dist 76 miles, a bit far but feasible).

In 15 years, most Americans will probably live within a 120-150 minute drive of a Southwest city. EG Columbia for South Carolina, Richmond for Virginia, Des Moines for Iowa, Milwaukee for east Wisconsin. They will blanket medium-size and less-congested large destinations. And maybe get to Rochester NY and stop making us drive to Buffalo (sorry, I have to mention that).

Which brings up another question I haven't seen discussed at airliners.net: will there be low-fare regional service in the US? ATA now operates "Chicago Express" regional service to SBN and other regional airports with SF3's, and Shuttle America is a free-flying regional with Dash 8s in the Northeast. But no one has created large scale regional low-fare flying yet. I don't know why, perhaps no one has figured out an economic formula for it yet.

If anyone can do it, Southwest can. Say pick one a/c type: CRJS or ERJs, probably ERJ's cause they have a 37 seat model and offer low-end flexibility. Then Southwest could bring its low fares to places like Billings MT, Fargo ND, Charleston WV and Rapid City SD that are far more than a 2-hour drive from any medium-size market WN could serve with 737's. And they could feed WN hubs at IAH, STL, BWI, MDW.

And again all this depends upon whether WN and other large low-fare carriers survive superconsolidation of the mainline carriers. If the supermergers are allowed, Big Air would have the critical mass in individual companies, to try to destroy the icky margin-eating presence of large low-fare carriers.

Jim



Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
User currently offlinePhilTLL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 27 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1848 times:

I heard some years ago that fares at ICT are higher in part due to high landing fees (per passenger AND per plane) to pay for the relatively new airport facilities.

For what it's worth, Wichita is roughly equidistant from OKC (160 mi), Tulsa (170 mi), and Kansas City (190 mi).

In addition, I can't see Southwest acquiring anything other than 737s for quite awhile. Doing otherwise would destroy the one-fleet-type ethos. And to address another point raised, the longer-range 737s can reliably serve Hawaii, if they ever choose to go there.


User currently offlineWN Boy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 1833 times:

Southwest will enter new markets in the Northeast and Southeast at a rate of 2-3 per year, consistent with the present business model. It needs to do these regions simply because that is where the competition is. (e.g., JetBlue, MetroJet)

After that, in 5-7 years, WN will begin to backfill its route system with cities that were missed in the original expansion into the Midwest and Northwest. I think this includes ICT, MKE and others.

Bismark here we come!


User currently offlineEarly Air From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 611 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1811 times:

Thank you all very much for participateing in this forum. I would like to get as many opinions as possible. I would still appreciate more people adding their comments.

User currently offlineRoberson From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 156 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 1803 times:

Does anyone predict that WN will be flying to either DEN or COS at some point in the future?

User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2901 posts, RR: 6
Reply 22, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 1792 times:
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Southwest's populist strategy? Quite the contrary...

Southwest is not a political movement to serve the masses... they are a business. They don't choose cities based on mercy or popularity, they choose them on a wholly dollar basis.

Case in point: SFO. Those in SFO love Southwest, but SFO doesn't work for them. They lose money there.

Southwest will expand, in their present form, 2-3 cities a year max. I'd be very surprised if they ever did the RJ thing...

Herb doesn't want your heart -- don't make any mistake about it. He wants your wallet, and if it means going through your heart, he'll do it...


User currently offlineJetService From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 4798 posts, RR: 11
Reply 23, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1781 times:

How about Southwest doing the Midway thing when Dornier-Fairchild puts out those sassy 738JETS. 737s to their current markets, with the 738JETs to new smaller markets that make them $$$. Wouldn't that make for a nice looking fleet?


"Shaddap you!"
User currently offlineLsjef From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (13 years 8 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 1770 times:

SWA has been conspicuous (and quite successful) in avoiding head-to-head combat with Big Air at fortress hubs. As such, I doubt SWA will try to fill any of the DEN capacity in the next ten years.

COS, on the other hand, is a possibility. I believe SWA has avoided COS in the past to keep peace with UAL. But, given UAL's latest cost increases and posturing for a super-merger, I would not be at all surprised to see SWA jump on the opportunity and open COS service this year.

I hope they do...


25 Dsmav8r : I think one interesting possibility would be Rochester, MN (RST). I read in the Star-Tribune a couple months back that there may be some sort of high-
26 CoAir@IAH : I would love to see WN go to MKE... They could set up a few "shuttle" flights to MDW, a few to Manchester and BWI and then you have to throw in MCI an
27 Early Air : Does anyone think it is possible that SWA will ever get aircraft other than the 737. Who knows, the 737 may be discontinued in a few years. Does anyon
28 Boeing757fan : GRR will have SW in about a year or so... JetBlue also.. I think GRR has a bright future ahead for itself.
29 Dsmav8r : I agree, GRR is a very underserved market as of now. But with the way the Grand Rapids metro area is growing now, anything is possible. Grand Rapids i
30 Deltaflyertoo : No, I don't think SW will ever fly anything but the 737. I think 15 years from now they will be double their size, only in the lower 48 states and ser
31 SEVEN_FIFTY7 : Why are people saying WN will never serve JFK? Is this because of slot-control issues? High fees? I mean, a few years ago I would've thought the same
32 Post contains images DCA-ROCguy : Thanks Flashmeister for the reminder that airlines have to make money. Especially since no one on the thread (did I miss someone?) has argued that WN
33 Early Air : I agree with DCA, if WN left their low fare status they would die.
34 Early Air : Do you think boeing will make a next next generation 737, i don't. What would WN do if the 737 were to be discontinued?
35 TI717 : SWA will keep the 737 line going on forever. In 15 yrs they might place orfers for the 737-1400 TI717
36 Early Air : I think wn will be around for a very long time.
37 Early Air : Does anyone know if Boeing will make a 737-1000, it sounds kind of strange. Mabye they will just keep makeing the ones they are makeing now. Rgds, Ear
38 ChrisNH : What about Honolulu -- Oakland to compete with Hawaiian Air's 737-700 service? And then an inter-Island service from there?
39 N202PA : Hawaiian does not fly HNL-OAK. Aloha does, and also from OGG, both flights continuing to LAS. WN might try Hawaii in about 50 years, once every other
40 Chiawei : May be southwest will fly to HNL as well. It's only a 4-5 hour flight from west coast. HNL can be served via Burbank, LAX, Ontario, Sacramento, Oaklan
41 Boeing nut : Here's another 737 question. Can any body fiquire out why Southwest has not placed orders for the 737-800? It has a lower seat-mile cost and that's wh
42 Post contains images WN boy : There may be a problem with the 738 as it relates to pilot cross-utilization. I could be wrong, but I think that a 732/733 pilot is not type-rated for
43 Post contains images AV8N2 : I'm not trying to be a pessimist here, but doesn't anyone else think that the Southwest phenomena might end by then? Remember, SWA's biggest asset is
44 Post contains images AV8N2 : FYI WN: Ya, it's the same type
45 Goingboeing : Southwest's biggest asset is it's people.
46 Redngold : As far as I know, WN was at DEN but pulled out because it was being bullied by UA. Since WN's not pulled out of any other markets, I think they'd be s
47 Goingboeing : Southwest did serve DEN, but they pulled out not because of any "bullying" by United, but because of the impact of delays on their scheduling (Staplet
48 Greg : Southwest won't go for the -800 because the FAA requires one add'l flight attendant for these aircraft. Although, the add'l revenue from the seats wou
49 Boeing nut : Greg, Thanks, that does make sense about the 738.
50 Early Air : I saw an animated photo of a wn 777-200, it was quite interesting. I would love to see wn get a wide body aircraft. They need to concur places like ha
51 Early Air : What would happen to wn after Herb Kelleher?
52 Deltaflyertoo : EarlyAir: Why do you think WN needs to conquer Hawaii and get 767s? Just a note of info, here is the key to WN's business success: 100% 737s, no hubs,
53 ILOVEPLANES! : I think Southwest will introduce Illinois One, Florida One and Kentucky One state special liveries in the next 15 years.
54 N312RC : DCA-ROCguy: Why wouldn't WN wanna go after the big fish and take on NW at MSP? They take on NW at DTW, why not at MSP too?
55 Deltaflyertoo : I personally think WN would do very well at MSP against SW. As much as a hub fortress as it is, it is a fortress where all the locals know it is and a
56 Deltaflyertoo : Oops, I meant against NW in the first line!!!
57 Fan_I_am : WN in 15 years...... Out of business? You all know my answer....... Fan_I_AM Not of WN
58 ScottB : At its current growth rate, Southwest will be twice its current size in ten years, not fifteen. And yes, I do see that happening. A recession works in
59 Early Air : What are you talking about Fan_I_A, wn will not be out of business. WN is great! I was wrong to think of them with a 767, i do know that soly the 737
60 737doctor : ScottB, your answer was very well thought out and presented. I believe that you are right on the money.
61 Post contains links ScottB : Early- Herb Kelleher is resigning his position as chief executive officer effective June 19 of this year (the day after Southwest's 30th birthday) but
62 Early Air : I can not believe that Herb Kelleher is resiging. I hope Southwest is okay withought him. I have a very large opinion about this I am going to write w
63 Mr. 717 : Southwest may go intrnational and get a few 777's, 737-800 or -900's and 717's!
64 737doctor : I say this with all, certainty...Southwest is NOT getting any -800's or any other model A/C at any time in the forseeable future!
65 Jetguy : Southwest in 15 years? My guess is that they will still be making money, still flying 737s, still flying domestic routes, and still boring their pilot
66 Early Air : It really is too bad that he is leaving Southwest. Kelleher is a genius. I know a lot about him. I have read a few books about him. My favorite being
67 Goingboeing : There is already an aircraft bearing the name "The Herbert D. Kelleher" How much money did he make off of WN? A bunch.
68 Deltaflyertoo : I don't think WN will go opposite to what it did under Herb. Remember, Herb reported to a lot of stockholders and at times was even a figure head for
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