Early Air From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 611 posts, RR: 1 Posted (12 years 10 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1984 times:
I was wondering where all of you think Southwest Airlines will be in 15 years from now. I think that they will be pretty much the same as now for ever. I think Southwest may take on a few more cities. One of then needed in New York JFK or La Guardia. However, I think Southwest is done with and major expansions.
Chepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6101 posts, RR: 11 Reply 1, posted (12 years 10 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 1785 times:
I doubt you wil ever see Southwest serving La Guardia and JFK . Hopefully one day I might seem them flying to Puerto Rico , as there low fares are badly needed here.
But that us highly improbable.
Squaremile From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 2, posted (12 years 10 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1734 times:
look for WN to continue growing by 2 to 3 new cities a year, probably in the northeast and southeast. JFK and LaGuardia are highly unlikely. Deliveries of about 25 aircraft per year will add routes and frequency, mostly to existing cities. Southwest is pretty immune from merger or takeover. The other airline's merger's will make SWA even more sought after in some monopolized markets.
OPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 3, posted (12 years 10 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1701 times:
Squaremile is right on target, I think. Supposedly, SWA has 125-150 cities desiring and/or lobbying for service, so even if only half of these were economically viable traffic-wise, that's still alot of domestic growth at 2-3 cities per year. If they ever decide to go "International Lite" and hit Canada, Mexico, or the Carribean, that's even more potential.
In 15 years, their oldest -300s and -500s will also start turning the 30-year old mark, and will probably start getting replaced. Wonder if Boeing till be on the NNG (Next-Next-Generation) 737 by then...
VirginA340 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 15 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (12 years 10 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 1653 times:
Puerto Rico is a great for SWA since PAN AM 3 is having no problems or very little and Puerto Ricans have American passports and PR is an American Commonwealth. I hope SWA and JB will follow PA 3's lead into PR and beat AA and it's piracy and high fares. The fares will be even higher after TWA is gone and the only competitor left is CO which flies to SJU out of EWR while AA flys out of JFK-SJU and sometimes EWR as well. I would like SWA to fly into Trenton as well. The last carrier TTN had was Eastwind (all 737 airline) Atlantic City would be another good one as well.
OPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 7, posted (12 years 10 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 1640 times:
SWA might not be too adversely affected by some routes outside of the contigious 48 states. SJU has already been mentioned, and there's also STX in the USVI.
Last time I came out of both Calgary and Toronto, we "pre-cleared" U.S. Customs before we even boarded. On arrival back in the USA, we deplaned into the domestic terminal. Presuming this set-up was available at other Canadian and Mexican airports, it doesn't appear that it would delay SWA ops much, especially since it'd all be on the front-end of the flight, and SWA is now using :20 minute (or longer) turns.
Dsmav8r From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 579 posts, RR: 7 Reply 13, posted (12 years 10 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1583 times:
I too would love to see WN serve smaller midwestern cities like ICT and DSM. Those cities could at least support MDW, STL, and LAS service. WN has a VERY weak presence in the Great Plains states, only serving the larger cities like MCI and OMA.
Oh well, one can always dream......
To most people, the sky is the limit. To those who love aviation, the sky is home
Tom in NO From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 7194 posts, RR: 38 Reply 15, posted (12 years 10 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1578 times:
Samurai777: good question, and one that I've been asking for years. I've know airport management people at ICT for years, and they've been asking Herb to serve ICT for many years.
To me it's a no-brainer...extraordinarily high fares exist, a large market area, and it meets the Wright Amendment restrictions for DAL. Of course, SWA doesn't comment on why it won't fly somewhere, but their reasons might include a relative proximity to either OKC, TUL, or MCI (proximity I guess meaning a 3 or 4 hour drive!).
Tom in NO (at MSY)
"The criminal ineptitude makes you furious"-Bruce Springsteen, after seeing firsthand the damage from Hurricane Katrina
Dsmav8r From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 579 posts, RR: 7 Reply 16, posted (12 years 10 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1564 times:
I agree with you Tom... There is no reason why WN shouldn't serve ICT. It is a rather isolated city with a metro area of around 600,000, which is larger than a lot of WN cities, plus extremely high fares. The closest city to ICT with WN service is TUL I believe.
I just don't think WN is interesting in expanding in the midwest, where it may be needed the most.
To most people, the sky is the limit. To those who love aviation, the sky is home
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4424 posts, RR: 35 Reply 17, posted (12 years 10 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1554 times:
Southwest will proably be a bigger and denser version of its present form in 15 years. They'll probably add Canada, Mexico and Caribbean destinations if they can be added without a substantially higher per-pax operating costs than US airports.
Don't look for WN to enter LGA or JFK. They'll probably keep up the 'bracketing' strategy, say Newburgh for New York, Trenton for Philly, and if they go to CA Hamilton for Toronto. Also possibly Rochester MN for Twin Cities as to avoid a direct brawl with NW. (Driving dist 76 miles, a bit far but feasible).
In 15 years, most Americans will probably live within a 120-150 minute drive of a Southwest city. EG Columbia for South Carolina, Richmond for Virginia, Des Moines for Iowa, Milwaukee for east Wisconsin. They will blanket medium-size and less-congested large destinations. And maybe get to Rochester NY and stop making us drive to Buffalo (sorry, I have to mention that).
Which brings up another question I haven't seen discussed at airliners.net: will there be low-fare regional service in the US? ATA now operates "Chicago Express" regional service to SBN and other regional airports with SF3's, and Shuttle America is a free-flying regional with Dash 8s in the Northeast. But no one has created large scale regional low-fare flying yet. I don't know why, perhaps no one has figured out an economic formula for it yet.
If anyone can do it, Southwest can. Say pick one a/c type: CRJS or ERJs, probably ERJ's cause they have a 37 seat model and offer low-end flexibility. Then Southwest could bring its low fares to places like Billings MT, Fargo ND, Charleston WV and Rapid City SD that are far more than a 2-hour drive from any medium-size market WN could serve with 737's. And they could feed WN hubs at IAH, STL, BWI, MDW.
And again all this depends upon whether WN and other large low-fare carriers survive superconsolidation of the mainline carriers. If the supermergers are allowed, Big Air would have the critical mass in individual companies, to try to destroy the icky margin-eating presence of large low-fare carriers.
PhilTLL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 27 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (12 years 10 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 1537 times:
I heard some years ago that fares at ICT are higher in part due to high landing fees (per passenger AND per plane) to pay for the relatively new airport facilities.
For what it's worth, Wichita is roughly equidistant from OKC (160 mi), Tulsa (170 mi), and Kansas City (190 mi).
In addition, I can't see Southwest acquiring anything other than 737s for quite awhile. Doing otherwise would destroy the one-fleet-type ethos. And to address another point raised, the longer-range 737s can reliably serve Hawaii, if they ever choose to go there.
WN Boy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 19, posted (12 years 10 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 1522 times:
Southwest will enter new markets in the Northeast and Southeast at a rate of 2-3 per year, consistent with the present business model. It needs to do these regions simply because that is where the competition is. (e.g., JetBlue, MetroJet)
After that, in 5-7 years, WN will begin to backfill its route system with cities that were missed in the original expansion into the Midwest and Northwest. I think this includes ICT, MKE and others.
JetService From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 4798 posts, RR: 12 Reply 23, posted (12 years 10 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 1470 times:
How about Southwest doing the Midway thing when Dornier-Fairchild puts out those sassy 738JETS. 737s to their current markets, with the 738JETs to new smaller markets that make them $$$. Wouldn't that make for a nice looking fleet?
Lsjef From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (12 years 10 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 1459 times:
SWA has been conspicuous (and quite successful) in avoiding head-to-head combat with Big Air at fortress hubs. As such, I doubt SWA will try to fill any of the DEN capacity in the next ten years.
COS, on the other hand, is a possibility. I believe SWA has avoided COS in the past to keep peace with UAL. But, given UAL's latest cost increases and posturing for a super-merger, I would not be at all surprised to see SWA jump on the opportunity and open COS service this year.
I hope they do...
25 Dsmav8r: I think one interesting possibility would be Rochester, MN (RST). I read in the Star-Tribune a couple months back that there may be some sort of high-
26 CoAir@IAH: I would love to see WN go to MKE... They could set up a few "shuttle" flights to MDW, a few to Manchester and BWI and then you have to throw in MCI an
27 Early Air: Does anyone think it is possible that SWA will ever get aircraft other than the 737. Who knows, the 737 may be discontinued in a few years. Does anyon
28 Boeing757fan: GRR will have SW in about a year or so... JetBlue also.. I think GRR has a bright future ahead for itself.
29 Dsmav8r: I agree, GRR is a very underserved market as of now. But with the way the Grand Rapids metro area is growing now, anything is possible. Grand Rapids i
30 Deltaflyertoo: No, I don't think SW will ever fly anything but the 737. I think 15 years from now they will be double their size, only in the lower 48 states and ser
31 SEVEN_FIFTY7: Why are people saying WN will never serve JFK? Is this because of slot-control issues? High fees? I mean, a few years ago I would've thought the same
32 DCA-ROCguy: Thanks Flashmeister for the reminder that airlines have to make money. Especially since no one on the thread (did I miss someone?) has argued that WN
33 Early Air: I agree with DCA, if WN left their low fare status they would die.
34 Early Air: Do you think boeing will make a next next generation 737, i don't. What would WN do if the 737 were to be discontinued?
35 TI717: SWA will keep the 737 line going on forever. In 15 yrs they might place orfers for the 737-1400 TI717
36 Early Air: I think wn will be around for a very long time.
37 Early Air: Does anyone know if Boeing will make a 737-1000, it sounds kind of strange. Mabye they will just keep makeing the ones they are makeing now. Rgds, Ear
38 ChrisNH: What about Honolulu -- Oakland to compete with Hawaiian Air's 737-700 service? And then an inter-Island service from there?
39 N202PA: Hawaiian does not fly HNL-OAK. Aloha does, and also from OGG, both flights continuing to LAS. WN might try Hawaii in about 50 years, once every other
40 Chiawei: May be southwest will fly to HNL as well. It's only a 4-5 hour flight from west coast. HNL can be served via Burbank, LAX, Ontario, Sacramento, Oaklan
41 Boeing nut: Here's another 737 question. Can any body fiquire out why Southwest has not placed orders for the 737-800? It has a lower seat-mile cost and that's wh
42 WN boy: There may be a problem with the 738 as it relates to pilot cross-utilization. I could be wrong, but I think that a 732/733 pilot is not type-rated for
43 AV8N2: I'm not trying to be a pessimist here, but doesn't anyone else think that the Southwest phenomena might end by then? Remember, SWA's biggest asset is