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Chances For CVG Startup?  
User currently offlineB6WNQX From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 243 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2563 times:

I know that I am probably going to be flamed for this...but...with CVG being the high fare leader in many if not most of the quarters of the year...what would be the chances of a new carrier surviving if the started in CVG? I know right now is not the time to start up an airline, but maybe when the economy gets going again...as it always has in the past.

If someone started with maybe the Q400's for the fuel efficiency and relative comfort for markets within +/- 500 miles and the E190 for longer segments and higher demand routes, could they survive? Start with business markets and a few leisure, something like:

CVG - LGA (if you could get slots if not try to get slots at any NYC airport)
CVG - ORD
CVG - IAD
CVG - BOS
CVG - MCO
CVG - MIA and/or FLL
CVG - AUS
CVG - HOU
CVG - New Orleans (forgot code)
CVG - ATL (this would be hard to crack)
CVG - DEN
CVG - MSP

They could use the Q400 to start more flights to smaller destinations to help increase connecting passengers from upstate NY, the midwest and such. Run 2-3x daily to these smaller stations.

To increase aircraft usage, maybe open up PIT with some routes with higher O&D that could be cracked now that US has reduced PIT so much.

It is only a thought and I am opening this thread to spark conversation. NW/DL (the new DL) will be a tough competitor and with the state of the economy, I don't think this is the right time, but what about in 1-2 years when hopefully the economy stabalizes.

Discuss away.

40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2553 times:

Zero.....Comair and/or Delta will crush them like a grape


"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlineAWACSooner From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 1800 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2522 times:

Somewhere between 0 and no chance in hell.
Anyone remember what happened to Heartland Airways in Dayton about a decade ago?


User currently offlineDeltAirlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8867 posts, RR: 12
Reply 3, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2497 times:

Wouldn't happen. Terminal 1 is now closed and being used as airport offices; Terminal 2 is pretty full with US (needs 2 gates), UA (not sure if they have 2 gates, I think they only have 1 though) and AA (believe they have 2 gates but might have 3). So there's some room in T2 but not a whole lot.

DL won't let any new competitor think about stepping into T3. Just won't happen.


User currently offlineDLPhoenix From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 414 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2477 times:



Quoting B6WNQX (Thread starter):

The opportunity will present itself after DL reduces its CVG operation to a spoke (something this armchair CEO would reluctantly do if he were running DL + NW  cheeky  ).

Until that happens most high yield passengers will stay commited to Delta.

DLP


User currently offlinePavlovsDog From Norway, joined Sep 2005, 656 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2380 times:

If AirTran can be successful against DL in ATL then I see no reason why a competitor couldn't make CVG work. It would take time and patience but it could happen.

User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 2311 times:



Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 2):
Anyone remember what happened to Heartland Airways in Dayton about a decade ago?

It never got off the ground and some of the folks behind it went to on start Skybus out of CMH.

I think someone could come into CVG and make a decent go out of. But a startup? Two words: snowball's chance, especially at a fortress airport during a period of high fuel costs. No bank or venture capital fund would be willing to bankroll such an operation.

I think if an airline were to come in and offer a superior product to Delta Connection (Let's face, unless you're flying on a transcon or to ATL, JFK, or MCO, you're more than likely going to be flying on a regional jet.) to the right cities, they might be able to carve out a nice enough niche for themselves.


User currently offlineLexy From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 2515 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 2296 times:
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Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 5):
If AirTran can be successful against DL in ATL then I see no reason why a competitor couldn't make CVG work. It would take time and patience but it could happen.

The two markets are totally different. CVG is no ATL and what works in one city may not work in the other thanks to economics, and geographical regions they may be in. Let's face it, people aren't stumbling over themselves to move to the Midwest, but the south still has very healthy growth rates even with the crappy economy. That goes for corporate HQ's as well.



Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
User currently offlineTornado82 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 2246 times:



Quoting Lexy (Reply 7):
Let's face it, people aren't stumbling over themselves to move to the Midwest, but the south still has very healthy growth rates even with the crappy economy.

Delaware County and Warren County, OH along with Hamilton County, IN are in the top 100 for quickest growing counties in the US. Delaware is north of CMH, Warren is between DAY and CVG, and Hamilton is north of IND.


User currently offlineTOLtommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3276 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 2237 times:

Theres plenty of room in Terminal 1 for a start up. But both WN and B6 have resisted so far. WN has successfully attacked other fortress hubs, and the E190 would be a good aircraft to jump into CVG. There's a reason why they haven't....

User currently offlineTornado82 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 2237 times:



Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 9):
Theres plenty of room in Terminal 1 for a start up. But both WN and B6 have resisted so far

Isn't T1 just being converted into offices now? I mean for a *major* new tenant I'm sure CVG would reopen it but they're not going to without a pretty substantial commitment. And they'd want a relatively stable airline after seeing what happened to their friends 2 hours up I-71 with Skybus.

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 9):
and the E190 would be a good aircraft to jump into CVG.

Like it was in Columbus?


User currently offlineLexy From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 2515 posts, RR: 9
Reply 11, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 2199 times:
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Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 8):
Delaware County and Warren County, OH along with Hamilton County, IN are in the top 100 for quickest growing counties in the US. Delaware is north of CMH, Warren is between DAY and CVG, and Hamilton is north of IND.

Okay, that's just three counties out of an entire region of the US. Take a look at how many in that top 100 are from the south and then look at the hottest cities for corporate relocations and other factors and you'll see what I mean. The south and the West have consistantly led the US in growth for the last few years.



Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2188 times:



Quoting B6WNQX (Thread starter):
New Orleans (forgot code)

MSY


User currently offlineB4REAL From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2611 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2175 times:

I don't think CVG (the airport) is really interested in a startup. They'd be 'polite' to an existing carrier coming in, say Frontier, AirTran, or Alaska; however.

Further, I think a lot of airports now are looking at Portsmouth, NH's situation with SkyBus. No one wants to be overaccomodating for a startup.



B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
User currently offlineSkibum9 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 1229 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2155 times:

Quoting B4REAL (Reply 13):
They'd be 'polite' to an existing carrier coming in, say Frontier, AirTran, or Alaska; however.

They may be polite, but there is no way they would be supportive. The CVG airport board is so far up Delta's anal cavity that they will never do anything to introduce competition. DL is now asking for the state of Kentucky to invest in overhauling Terminal C, which it desperately needs. The airport board and the state will do anything to keep CVG as a hub for DL. If DL significantly downsizes or de-hubs CVG, the airport board will then be chasing their tails as they will be forced to react. They are in a catch 22, damned if the do (keeping all their eggs in one basket) and damned if they don't (a public that is pretty pissed off at the fares out of CVG).

[Edited 2008-04-20 17:57:01]


Tailwinds!!!
User currently offlineB4REAL From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2611 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2150 times:



Quoting Skibum9 (Reply 14):
The CVG airport board is so far up Delta's anal cavity that they will never due anything the introduce competition.

I was looking for a nice way to say that  Smile



B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
User currently offlineNickstyro From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 38 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2111 times:



Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 9):
Theres plenty of room in Terminal 1 for a start up. But both WN and B6 have resisted so far. WN has successfully attacked other fortress hubs, and the E190 would be a good aircraft to jump into CVG. There's a reason why they haven't....

It would take a major overhaul for that to happen. About a year ago they removed or deactivated all of the jetways at the terminal. Also your talking about a building that was built in 1947 that was ill equipped to handle a dozen flights a day, much less a start up carriers ops. The final nail in the coffin is the fact that FedEx uses that ramp space for their cargo ops (I think DHL still owns the lease to their original building, correct me if I'm wrong). There is just not enough space for another carrier to start up at the moment.


User currently offlineTOLtommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3276 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2098 times:



Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 10):
Isn't T1 just being converted into offices now?

Haven't been to CVG in a while, if it is, I wasn't aware.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 10):
Like it was in Columbus?

The 190 was a good airplane for CMH. Once someone came into the market with $10 fares, there were places for B6 to put those planes that were more profitable.

Quoting Nickstyro (Reply 16):
There is just not enough space for another carrier to start up at the moment.

Once the DL/NW merger happens, DL will find a way to pull a PIT and slowly close the hub. I would imagine that T3 will be the only terminal in use 5 years from now, and it will have plenty of room for a startup.


User currently offlineLexy From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 2515 posts, RR: 9
Reply 18, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2098 times:
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Quoting Nickstyro (Reply 16):
I think DHL still owns the lease to their original building, correct me if I'm wrong

You are correct. At least they did as of October 2007 (the last time I was up there).



Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
User currently offlineTornado82 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2036 times:



Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 17):

The 190 was a good airplane for CMH. Once someone came into the market with $10 fares, there were places for B6 to put those planes that were more profitable.

B6 was leaving CMH before the $10 fares came. And the $10 fares never really came to NYC anyways.


User currently offlineB6WNQX From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 243 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 1976 times:



Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 12):
MSY

Thank you. I don't know what happened but I competely forgot it.

The discussion seems to lean towards the no chance in hell realm could a start up survive. Would DL want to defend a regional jet hub in a year or two...or will CVG even be around at the capacity that it is now?

Just things to ponder. If someone could offer XM radio, maybe LiveTV and maybe Wifi, I think that they could make inroads with business travelers and leisure travelers. What would you rather fly? A cramped CRJ200 or a Q400 and/or an E190?

Also, maybe offer some codeshares in the way of F9 or FL with someone to expand their reach?

Just thinking out loud...


User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 1962 times:



Quoting B6WNQX (Reply 20):
A cramped CRJ200 or a Q400 and/or an E190?

I'd take the RJ because I hate props, all props, and avoid them at all costs. No real ration/reason, but it's something I do, and I'm not alone.

As for the E190 however--- ahh, heaven  Smile


User currently offlineOOer From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 1439 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (5 years 12 months 22 hours ago) and read 1875 times:

Ok...lets make this a bland statement...

The chance of ANY startup in the US right now is pretty much nil! Unless you have a billionaire somewhere that wants to throw money away no investor or bank is going to throw their money in a new carrier!

Does this sum it up pretty well boys and girls?


User currently offlineMiller22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 713 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (5 years 12 months 19 hours ago) and read 1801 times:



Quoting OOer (Reply 22):
The chance of ANY startup in the US right now is pretty much nil! Unless you have a billionaire somewhere that wants to throw money away no investor or bank is going to throw their money in a new carrier!

Unfortunately for you, and for those investors, right now is the best time to start an airline. With a 2-year lag from concept to first revenue flight, a startup would be primed to catch the next wave of economic success. The problem with the recent startups is that they were all conceived when times were good, then launched when they were bad. Even jetBlue hit the wrong end of that wave.

I actually think CVG will turn into an LCC market. Once Delta inevitibly pulls back from CVG, you'll see FL, WN, and B6 crawling all over. The airport has been begging for an LCC presence for quite some time, and it's only a matter of time after the NW/DL merger.


User currently offlineEXAAUADL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (5 years 12 months 18 hours ago) and read 1783 times:

no chance so long as DL has a hub there..CVG is among the most overserrved cities in the USA.

25 EXAAUADL : pretty shocking statement. HEre is how Air Tran succedded: 1. ATL has nearly 4m people CVG about 1/2 that. 2. More importantly: ATL is the gateway to
26 ConcordeBoy : As a concept, this may be true; but in reality, it ignores the extremely skeptical approach (be it merited or not) that investors are likely to take
27 Miller22 : Not quite sure where you get your information, but I can tell you that straight from the CVG board there have been many a meeting with LCC's. The rea
28 Lexy : I don't see how SDF is pulling much from the CVG catchment. That airport only averages around 3 million pax a year and that's par for the course for
29 Miller22 : The big culprit is DAY. The majority of the high-end Cincinnati population lives North of the city which makes it only marginally longer to get to DA
30 RJNUT : I like the premise ,but it will be awhile for all the consolidation hoopla to settle down . I think evetnually there will interesing niche opportunti
31 PavlovsDog : My point was more that Delta's fortress hubs are vulnerable not that Cincinnati is close to being the market Atlanta is. Nobody is stating that.
32 ExpressJet_ERJ : I think STL or MCI would be much more of a possibility.
33 Steeler83 : So there would be the base at CVG and a focus city at PIT? Interesting... Although, other airlines have been coming in to fill some of the gaps left
34 Bobprobert95 : Living in Cincinnati I would love to see somebody compete with DL but it won't happen. The market is over served. When flying for business, which I do
35 Ocracoke : Since the state of Ohio has taken county names off of license plates, how do the other airports know who is from Cincinnati (Hamilton county) and who
36 PhaetonFell : I think KCAB is more than willing to get some new blood into CVG but any carrier is faced with two problems: 1. space. T1 is a fire hazard and all oth
37 Miller22 : Spend some time looking through the Cincinnati CSA at the census bureau. Indian Hill has the richest people, but there are very few of them. The fast
38 Ocracoke : Glendale and Springdale booming? Where? Those are land locked areas, with no room to grown. They just shot down that proposal to build on one of the
39 Bobprobert95 : Yeah, but I try and get on the CRJ-7 and its a better situation but it still blows. I will always say the CRJ sucks no if ands or buts!
40 Tornado82 : The first thing the lady handed me at the Ohio licensing bureau when I moved here was not my plate, nor my registration, but 2 stickers with a large
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