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Emirates Plans 450-plane Fleet By 2020  
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 11207 times:

http://www.ameinfo.com/154227.html

All widebody? Would make them the biggest carrier in the world (when measured by seats).

What would that fleet look like?

100 A380
120 A350
120 777
40 A330/340
20 747-8F

Even that wouldn't make 450.  Wow!

62 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineN104UA From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 921 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 11196 times:

Maybe they could get into flying smaller a/c around the middle east and they still could order the 787


"Learn the rules, so you know how to break them properly." -H.H. The Dalai Lama
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10189 posts, RR: 97
Reply 2, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 11200 times:
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Quoting Thorben (Thread starter):
40 A330/340

Do you think these would still be there in 2020?
What about adding 787's?

Regards


User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12808 posts, RR: 46
Reply 3, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 11089 times:
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Quoting Astuteman (Reply 2):
Do you think these would still be there in 2020?

Certainly not.

There was a very strong possibility they were going to roll over their A332 fleet last year and replace them with A333s (a very reliable source told me that EK accepted an Airbus proposal for 60 A333s, but never went ahead with the order). I can see them ordering 787s for the low end of their fleet, unless they decide the A358 is the smallest plane they want to operate. The advantage of making the A358 their smallest plane is that they would only have 3 types in the pax fleet.

I could easily see EK's fleet in 2020 as being either
100 A380
220 A350
100 777

or

100 A380
120 A350
100 777
100 787

plus 30 freighters.

I don't see EK changing from its very successful "widebody only" fleet strategy. In addition, DAE has a lot of planes on order and MOU, so I could easily see some of EK's future fleet coming from them.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana! #44cHAMpion
User currently offlineUAEflyer From United Arab Emirates, joined Nov 2006, 1151 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 11068 times:

Guys,, the gentlemen said in the interview (which i saw in TV) that he wouldn't mind seeing 450 aircrafts, that doesn't mean that EK will buy 450. Which means, if needed he will buy if not he might even sell !!!

User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3398 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 10959 times:



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 3):
a very reliable source told me that EK accepted an Airbus proposal for 60 A333s, but never went ahead with the order).

That's interesting - the rumour on here was that EK wanted to order a large number of A330s but Airbus wouldn't let them have them at knock-off prices. At the current rates of production that's 8 months A330s!


User currently offlineQatarA340 From Qatar, joined May 2006, 1880 posts, RR: 10
Reply 6, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 10944 times:

Someone is forgeting a very imporant point.

Emirates plans to start a low-cost carrier--and the 450 is probably included in this new carrier!



لا اله الا الله محمد رسول الله
User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Reply 7, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 10912 times:

A fleet of 450 aircraf even for EK is a complete phantasy .
They are not alone in the Gulf to operate hubs onto Asia and literally all competitors (Qatar,Etihad,Gulfair,Oamnair -even TK in the future ) will expand.There is a limit as to how much passengers actually can afford to travel .
While the dynamic of EK will remain impressive,I rather se a 270-350 aircraft company max -with some single-aisle metal for regional operations.
Qatar will become their biggest contender -and they will grow to a 150 fleet size .Now that's a lot of aircraft to be focussed in the area,if you add the Low-Costs alike like Air Arabia -who might go wide-body sooner or later.



Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlineEK156 From United Arab Emirates, joined May 2005, 765 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 10451 times:



Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 4):
Guys,, the gentlemen said in the interview (which i saw in TV) that he wouldn't mind seeing 450 aircrafts, that doesn't mean that EK will buy 450. Which means, if needed he will buy if not he might even sell !!!

Actually he said Emirates could have 600 planes by 2020 but the Dubai Airport Capacity cannot handle that amount of planes so they will stick with 450. EK will receive more than 22 new planes this year and double that next year. So I think they will not only reach 450... they will also surpass it.

EK156


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3398 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 10361 times:

Oh good another 18 month saga whilst EK flirts with both OEMs to get the best price!

Is the 100 A380s that has been mentioned by a couple of people a quote from someone at EK or just an educated guess - as it would be twice the size of the largest 747 fleet currently (BA)


User currently offlineBooDog From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 257 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 10125 times:

Don't forget the 747-8. IMHO, It has a better than 50-50 chance of happening. EK would place an order just to get widebodies ASAP.


B1B - best looking aircraft ever.
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 11, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 9979 times:



Quoting BooDog (Reply 10):
Don't forget the 747-8. IMHO, It has a better than 50-50 chance of happening. EK would place an order just to get widebodies ASAP.

I'm sorry but I cannot agree mate - the A388 covers them until 2015-ish and if/when they need more lift after this time then they will go for A350-10 and more A388s. If Airbus launch the A389 they will likely take 50+ straight off the bat.

By 2020 I see them using (roughly):

A321 or 739ER x 80 (regional LoCo operating out of what is now DXB).

A350XWB-800 x 40
77L x 20
A350XWB-900 x 100
77W x 40
A350XWB-1000 X 40
A380-800 x 80

77F x 12 (SkyCargo)
748F x 10 (SkyCargo)

Total of 422 planes. Not too far fetched at all IMHO.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 12, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9871 times:
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FORUM MODERATOR



Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 7):
A fleet of 450 aircraf even for EK is a complete phantasy .
They are not alone in the Gulf to operate hubs onto Asia and literally all competitors (Qatar,Etihad,Gulfair,Oamnair -even TK in the future ) will expand.There is a limit as to how much passengers actually can afford to travel .
While the dynamic of EK will remain impressive,I rather se a 270-350 aircraft company max -with some single-aisle metal for regional operations.
Qatar will become their biggest contender -and they will grow to a 150 fleet size .Now that's a lot of aircraft to be focussed in the area,if you add the Low-Costs alike like Air Arabia -who might go wide-body sooner or later.

EK focus on a business model that at this time has no limits: not only a little number of destinations with a lot of flights but rather, a lot of destinations with one flight. And also, they are ahead of Qatar, Etihad, Gulfair...
With this, they create demand from almost everywhere to everywhere. Someone would imagine demand from CCS to BKK ? No.. but Emirates can very successfully manage not only CCS-DXB-BKK but a lot of other destinations in Asia as well as for BKK a lot of future destinations in South America.

EK is building a Hub that will attack the others Hub Structure at the same time they continue to strenght DXB as a destination.

Limits ? I can't see considering their business model.

MAD, BCN, LIS, OPO, MEX, CCS, BOG, LIM, SSA, BSB, GIG, EZE, SCL, MIA, MCO, IAD, ORD, DKR, SEA, CUN, MVD, LAD, DKR, AMS, BRU, DFW, Stockholm, Oslo, Warsaw, Budapest, Sofia, Helsinki, Geneva, HNL ... the list could be longer including India, China, Japan, Taipei city's and i'm sure many here can add even a hundred more.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineMoo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 4065 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 9834 times:



Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 9):
Is the 100 A380s that has been mentioned by a couple of people a quote from someone at EK or just an educated guess

It was originally from a quote from (I think) Tim Clarke - he said EK eventually wanted 100 A380s in their fleet. There was a thread (or twenty) on here about it a while back.


User currently offlinePylon101 From Russia, joined Feb 2008, 1608 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 9614 times:

I would suggest that they - first of all - build a new airport.
The present one is just terrible at rush hours 10 pm - 03 am.
Just a mess.
People on the dirty carpeted floor.
Even Starbucks coffee sucks!

It looked great a decade ago - but it was the last century after all....

They have plans of building a new one - but it's years from now, even by Dubai standards.


User currently offlineSurfrider1978 From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 292 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 9567 times:

Im curious as too what Emirates pays for their fuel. It's funny how alot of carriers are struggling, but they seem to grow tremendously out of control.

User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 16, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9511 times:



Quoting Moo (Reply 13):
Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 9):
Is the 100 A380s that has been mentioned by a couple of people a quote from someone at EK or just an educated guess

It was originally from a quote from (I think) Tim Clarke - he said EK eventually wanted 100 A380s in their fleet. There was a thread (or twenty) on here about it a while back.

He also said they'd take A389s right now if they were avaialble.

Quoting Pylon101 (Reply 14):
I would suggest that they - first of all - build a new airport.
The present one is just terrible at rush hours 10 pm - 03 am.
Just a mess.
People on the dirty carpeted floor.
Even Starbucks coffee sucks!

It looked great a decade ago - but it was the last century after all....

They have plans of building a new one - but it's years from now, even by Dubai standards.

Its a tonne nicer than AUH and DOH - by the time these have their new terminals in place JXB will be ready. Promises to be an awesome facility.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineMoo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 4065 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9502 times:



Quoting Surfrider1978 (Reply 15):
Im curious as too what Emirates pays for their fuel. It's funny how alot of carriers are struggling, but they seem to grow tremendously out of control.

The operating costs are fairly well detailed in their annual finances reports.


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 18, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9458 times:



Quoting Surfrider1978 (Reply 15):
Im curious as too what Emirates pays for their fuel. It's funny how alot of carriers are struggling, but they seem to grow tremendously out of control.

I think you'll find they pay market rate - maybe a dollar or so here or there for local supply but market rate generally.

What people fail to realise when they spout this "EK is not playing fair because they get free fuel" b*llocks is that their local supply is also a commercial enterprise and that giving EK cut price fuel makes no sense if you could get market rate for it from any of the dozens of other carriers that serve DXB.

Secondly, do they think that EK tankers the allegedly cut price fuel for its return leg outbound so it doesnt have to pay market rate from the fuel companies at the destination? If not, then do they think ShellAv/ExxonMobil/World Fuel Services/AirBP/Chevron etc also give EK cut price fuel?

Clearly a load of rubbish. EK pay market rate for their fuel - I can tell you they have US$ mid/high seven figures credit lines with two of the abovementioned suppliers that I myself approved them for, and lines considerably larger than this with two other suppliers I am not allowed to name.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9210 posts, RR: 76
Reply 19, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9338 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 18):
I think you'll find they pay market rate - maybe a dollar or so here or there for local supply but market rate generally.

Fuel in DXB from what I understand is some of the most expensive about, the crude get shipped to Singapore, and the fuel shipped back.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineManfredj From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9312 times:

Not sure if I get this thread: Yes speculation is fun, but 100 380's? 150 350's? 100 777's?

I can think of no carrier in the world that needs such a large fleet. Without a doubt these numbers will contain mostly 737NG's not widebody.

Most A-net memebers could never be CEO of an airline.....like kids in a candy store....I'll take two dozen 380's a few 777's, oh and add some 757's for old times sake....not the way it works.



757: The last of the best
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10189 posts, RR: 97
Reply 21, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9271 times:
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Quoting Manfredj (Reply 20):
Not sure if I get this thread: Yes speculation is fun, but 100 380's? 150 350's? 100 777's?

I can think of no carrier in the world that needs such a large fleet. Without a doubt these numbers will contain mostly 737NG's not widebody.

Most A-net memebers could never be CEO of an airline..

No, but when the CEO of said airline has pretty much stated an ambition to grow his fleet to this sort of size in widebody's, I think us mere mortals are allowed a little speculation...  Smile

Regards


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 22, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9232 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
MAD, BCN, LIS

Bound to - before 2010 probably using A332.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
MEX, CCS

An absolute banker - Next non-US 77L destinations IMHO. Yields awesome on both flights, contrary to commonly held opinion. Dunno about Y traffic but in cargo alone they would rock both routes.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
GIG

I can see it as an add-on to the GRU flight once frequencies increase.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
MIA

Bound to - before 2011 probably using A345.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
IAD, ORD

Bound to - before 2010 probably using 77W.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
DKR

Bound to - before 2010 probably using A332. Am amazed they dont already. Are you sure they dont?

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
SEA

Not convinced.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
CUN

Unlikely - Yields are basically leisure-level. MEX is a given eventually but cant see CUN.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
BOG

Eventually I wouldnt be at all surprised.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
MVD, LAD

Very, very unlikely.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
AMS, BRU

Bound to - before 2010 probably using A332s initially - they are worried about yield dilution caused by over-supply to central EU airports. BRU will happen before AMS I would think.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
DFW

I'd be tremendously surprised not to see them launch this given how successful the IAH routes have been. Not so cargo-heavy so maybe A345 would be better.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
Stockholm, Oslo

Bound to - before 2010 probably using A332 initially - yields good, traffic good. If they connect both flights nicely to BKK/CGK/SIN and BOM flights they will do massively well and cause SK a lot of problems.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
Warsaw, Budapest, Sofia, Helsinki, Geneva

Bound to - before 2012 probably using A332 initially. HEL and GVA first off I would think and PRG would be a contender also. WAW and BUD next after that. Possibly TLL and St Petersberg after that.

Other new destinations I expect to see in the next five years:

DUB
EDI
HKT
Xiamen
CAN
Macau
HND (they cant get into NRT)
NGO
DRW
YYZ
YVR
YUL
SSH
Abuja



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 23, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9089 times:



Quoting Manfredj (Reply 20):
Not sure if I get this thread: Yes speculation is fun, but 100 380's? 150 350's? 100 777's?

I can think of no carrier in the world that needs such a large fleet. Without a doubt these numbers will contain mostly 737NG's not widebody.

Most A-net memebers could never be CEO of an airline.....like kids in a candy store....I'll take two dozen 380's a few 777's, oh and add some 757's for old times sake..

I just write their credit report for four of their biggest suppliers.

Hey, what do I know?

Quoting Manfredj (Reply 20):
not the way it works.

I'm fully aware of "how it works" in the rest of the world, but Dubai is a slightly different proposition I'm afraid. The fat is you cannot really look at Dubai, Dubai Ports, Emirates Trading, Emirates Airlines, Emaar, Dnata, and all the other Dubai-owned companies as separate entities from a strategic point of view. Yes they are separate in terms of their management and structure, but they are all geared towards the expansion and cementation of Dubai as a world trading and commerce hub.

The most important thing about EK is their brand - it is all important. Dubai itself isnt a place - its a brand. The whole thing is.

The amazing thing is, its mainly built on diversified foreign investment spread all over the world and across all imaginable sectors.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineYWG747 From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 251 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (6 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 9019 times:



Quoting Surfrider1978 (Reply 15):
Im curious as too what Emirates pays for their fuel

Is free an amount?


25 Astuteman : Presumably made in jest, rather than knowledge...
26 ConcordeBoy : The latter, based on what?
27 Scbriml : AFAIK, all av-gas in UAE is imported. EK regularly reports fuel costs as a higher % of their overall costs than most other airlines (the % is higher
28 CHRISBA777ER : Sorry typo - Luanda is very likely - I was referring to Montevideo! Luanda is supposedly one of the highest yielding destinations in BA's network. EK
29 Kaitak : If EK is willing to take 50+ A380-900s, Airbus could probably go ahead and launch this variant. Obviously, they'll wait until they've bedded down the
30 Ikramerica : That's only 4 times what they have now… with 70-100 A380s then compared to 0 now? Will EK become like all those massive palm tree islands they built
31 RJ111 : Well it's technically an amount, but not one that is relevant to this question.
32 Scipio : Emirates is clearly thinking beyond established airline business models. This is not about "needs" but about "possibilities". What they're trying to
33 Moo : Emirates Airline has been growing for 23 years, with only a single unprofitable year in its history and 20% growth minimum each year - I'd go as far
34 Ramzi : about the fleet, i perosnally think it will be something around this: 100 A380 120 A350 100 B777 100 B787 020 B748 The A380 and A350 are practically d
35 Luv2cattlecall : I think that has more to do with SBUX in general, and less to do with DXB!
36 Kanban : All this mindless speculation what a waste of time! plus the assumption that a fleet of widebodies that big could find enough passengers other than Ha
37 PillowTester : If nothing else, it should certainly make them the largest carrier in seats per citizen of home country.
38 Ramzi : Hahahaha... certainly true
39 LipeGIG : Agree with you on mostly comments. For Brazil be in mind EK obtained rights for 14 weekly flights and as per comments, GIG could be one of the next d
40 Scbriml : Then why bother making a pointless comment? I don't know about you, but when I speculate, I try to make it anything but mindless. I don't believe EK
41 Post contains links and images CHRISBA777ER : You are very welcome mate. View Large View MediumPhoto © Konstantin von Wedelstaedt Its weird how every single EK-hater here seems to come from
42 QantasA333 : Could we be seeing ADL? direct AKL & CHC services? HNL? LAS? ORD? MSP? ARN? OSL?
43 CHRISBA777ER : Wouldnt be at all surprised - I think ADL is a much bigger market than DRW. Eventually I think they are bound to - non-stop A345 would do well. Very
44 JpetekYXMD80 : You are the one who doesn't know 'the way it works' here. This isn't any airline, its Emirates. They're trying to do something drastically different
45 KissK : and DUR??
46 CHRISBA777ER : I want to see how CPT works out first - traffic is there, but are the yields?
47 KissK : Lets say 30 Nov 08 for DUR ?
48 CHRISBA777ER : Have they announced it you mean? News to me if they have. I've heard about CPT but not DUR - when did you hear this? A332 not daily presumably?
49 YWG747 : Do they have enough aircraft on order to get to 450 planes by 2020?
50 KissK : No No not announced neither i have heard anything... Just trying to guess... FIFA World Cup in South Africa with EK being the Official carrier... DUR
51 CHRISBA777ER : Nope - not even close. Expect further announcments by the end of the year. I expect a large A388 top up once they have a couple of A388s in service.
52 CHRISBA777ER : Completely agree - judging EK by US standards is daft - its a totally different model and totally different ballgame.
53 Yellowtail : Some mentioned CUN....could any aircraft make it MEX-DXB with the Altitude issues...I think not.....maybe the routing would be DXB-MEX-CUN-DXB
54 FRNT787 : Thank you for your analysis of the aircraft financing and operations at Emirates, I found it a fascinating look at the airline and it exemplified the
55 Burnsie28 : I would love to see them try this, the major US carriers have fleets that big and have several hundred destinations and flights to hubs. Emirates woul
56 Post contains links Scbriml : You cannot compare the US majors to EK (on so many levels!) The vast majority of US major carriers' networks are domestic US with A320/737 or smaller
57 Scouseflyer : A very valid point that I aggree with whole-heartidly - in all of the hub and spoke versus point to point arguments a point that is often forgotten i
58 Astuteman : Makes you question whose business model makes more sense in their particular location.... Regards
59 Post contains links Avianca707359B : New article on Emirates 777-200LR's & expansion in the Americas... http://www.anna.aero/2008/04/25/emir...ange-777s-enables-american-routes/
60 CHRISBA777ER : You are very welcome mate. I am inclined to suggest that the 77W will ultimately be replaced with the A350-10 IE: more of them. A358/A359/A3510/A388/
61 Incitatus : Lufthansa already did imagine that and serves it conveniently: LH 535 CCSFRA 500P connecting to codeshare on Thai LH*9714 FRABKK Emirates may eventua
62 FRNT787 : I tend to agree, but I would love to see Boeings in their fleet for the Very Long Term. (It is probably a good thing I dont run an airline).
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