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Turkish Airlines Targets 40 Million Pax In 2013  
User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Posted (6 years 6 months 19 hours ago) and read 3793 times:

While we desperately wait for their next large Aircraft order, Turkish Airlines' Manager Temel Kotil is giving some hints of their next 5-year business plan. But still no mention of which A/C will be ordered. Rumours are 20+10 Widebodies and 40 Narrowbodies. Another rumour is either 787+738/739 or 350+320/321, no mixed fleet like the previous order.

In a recent article on Airporthaber quoting a Turkish Newspaper, their goal for 2013 are Operating Revenues of 10 billion $ and carrying up to 40 million Passengers.
Last year they had a turnover of 3.7 billion $ and carried 19.6 million passengers. This year they want to have a turnover of 4.5 billion $ and carry 23.5 million Passengers.


Sounds quite ambitious but even me, when they revealed their plans in 2003/2004 to double their size, had my doubts. Now seeing their success this is achievable. Only problem is lack of A/C and the capacities at IST and SAW.

22 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineGLA MD11 From France, joined Mar 2000, 277 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 6 months 19 hours ago) and read 3782 times:

This is great news for TK.

Quoting TKfan (Thread starter):
Only problem is lack of A/C and the capacities at IST and SAW.

I do not see lots of expansion out of SAW but you forget ESB (Ankara). They wanted to make it their second international hub and built a new terminal to that effect. I am desperately waiting for more international service out of ESB, since my in-laws live there  Wink Hopefully, with such an extended fleet, they will announce some new routes (such as ESB CDG  crossfingers  )

Quoting TKfan (Thread starter):
no mixed fleet like the previous order.

Does that mean they will not go for Airbus for long haul and Boeing for short haul or just that they will choose 1 supplier for each market?


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 2, posted (6 years 6 months 19 hours ago) and read 3775 times:

IIRC their CEO saying last year that "even the A380 is not too big for our future plans" - I'd love to see them take a few.

Quoting GLA MD11 (Reply 1):
Does that mean they will not go for Airbus for long haul and Boeing for short haul or just that they will choose 1 supplier for each market?

I think that means they'll centre on one operator.

A321 - A313 - A332 - A343

Becomes

A319 - A320 - A321 - A358 - A359 or even A350-10.  Smile



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3397 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (6 years 6 months 19 hours ago) and read 3775 times:

Do they have any more planes on order presently, as they're going to struggle to get many widebodies in the timeframe of before 2013? I guess they could order some A330s but then they'll have to be replaced with A350s or 787s then they become available?

User currently offlineGokmengs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1123 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (6 years 6 months 19 hours ago) and read 3774 times:



Quoting TKfan (Thread starter):
While we desperately wait for their next large Aircraft order,

I guess we will keep waiting.

Quoting TKfan (Thread starter):
In a recent article on Airporthaber quoting a Turkish Newspaper, their goal for 2013 are Operating Revenues of 10 billion $ and carrying up to 40 million Passengers.

I love ambitious plans for TK, but this projection is outright impossible, where will TK get that capacity? if they order A350 they won't get deliveries before 2015 earliest same for the 787. Aside from the A380 which TK might buy, where will they fit the 40 million pax?



Gercekleri Tarih Yazar Tarihide Galatasaray
User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (6 years 6 months 19 hours ago) and read 3749 times:



Quoting GLA MD11 (Reply 1):

You are right about ESB expansion, but their focus is to establish IST to a major hub, connection Europe to Africa, Middle and Far East. If IST is to congested I m sure SAW will be used for low yield O&D traffic.
But in the long run a third Airport in Istanbul is inevitable.
I think the government and DHMI are working on it in the background to avoid real estate speculations. At least I hope so Big grin

Quoting GLA MD11 (Reply 1):
Does that mean they will not go for Airbus for long haul and Boeing for short haul or just that they will choose 1 supplier for each market?

This Rumour is from an reliable Aviation expert (?) Ugur Cebeci. He said that this time they are going for only one supplier. It will be either Airbus or Boeing for the whole order.


User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (6 years 6 months 19 hours ago) and read 3747 times:



Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 4):
I love ambitious plans for TK, but this projection is outright impossible, where will TK get that capacity? if they order A350 they won't get deliveries before 2015 earliest same for the 787. Aside from the A380 which TK might buy, where will they fit the 40 million pax?

thats the same I think about it. I dont know whats going on in the background


User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (6 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 3637 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):
IIRC their CEO saying last year that "even the A380 is not too big for our future plans" - I'd love to see them take a few.

With the delayed EIS of 787 and a probable delay of 350, i guess its easier to obtain a 380. I remember his statement last year, but in that article above, he doesnt name Emirates, but says they wont do like their competition, using large planes and wait to fill it.
They rather want to serve secondary European Cities and connect them to the Far East and Africa. There are 55 Countries in 3h proximity, their aim is to serve up to to 3-4 Cities in those countries.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):
I think that means they'll centre on one operator.

The smallest A/C they want to order next will be a 320 or 738. no smaller planes at this stage.

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 3):
Do they have any more planes on order presently, as they're going to struggle to get many widebodies in the timeframe of before 2013? I guess they could order some A330s but then they'll have to be replaced with A350s or 787s then they become available?

Currently they will receive 2x343, 2x321, 6x320 and 8x738 this year, and another 2x330 next February.
There are rumours that they wont take up the 343s, but not officially confirmed.


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3397 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (6 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 3623 times:



Quoting TKfan (Reply 7):
Currently they will receive 2x343, 2x321, 6x320 and 8x738 this year, and another 2x330 next February.
There are rumours that they wont take up the 343s, but not officially confirmed.

Thanks, I can't imagine many people taking up the A343 anymore (when there are more efficient options available) - the A340 struggled with oli at $75 a barrel it's got to have got worse at $115!


User currently offlinePe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 19236 posts, RR: 52
Reply 9, posted (6 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 3619 times:

Anyone know what TK's CASM is?

Anyone know how many O&D pax fly TK on domestic routes on a route-by-route basis?

Cheers.

[Edited 2008-04-25 04:50:31]


"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
User currently offlineBrightCedars From Belgium, joined Nov 2004, 1289 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (6 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 3611 times:

That sounds ambitious, but then Turkey is an ever growing economy, with Istanbul on the edge of the European continent so nicely located for this kind of hub operation. However I do not see them having as much success as Emirates and they are more prone to European competition on these types of routes (3h in and out of Istanbul to the East or to the West), you've got a lot more West (points, wealth, mass) than East. A B787 or A350 will be a great hub buster in the future, and let us all be sure that a full EK A380 will be a hub buster for TK's home-base on many of these potential routes. And an EK A380 at Istanbul flying to Dubai and spreading the sheep all over Asia may be a killer as well.

I was all excited when I read on this site that they are upping Beirut to a daily rotation. When I made my plans for Christmas, it couldn't be booked on my days. It turns out the program returns to just 3 per week in Winter... I enjoyed every flight with TK so far.



I want the European Union flag on airliners.net!
User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (6 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3570 times:



Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 8):
Thanks, I can't imagine many people taking up the A343 anymore (when there are more efficient options available) - the A340 struggled with oli at $75 a barrel it's got to have got worse at $115!

The 343 were not new orders, just leasing the ex-Air Jamaica 343s from ILFC for 6 years.
Wont make sense for TK to add 777 to its fleets unless they order 787.

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 9):
Anyone know what TK's CASM is?

Out of an presentation of TK, their operational costs per seat-kilometer is $0.078 one of the lowest of European legacy carriers. the same figure for Easyjet is i.e. $0.069, Lufthansa $0.206, British Airways $0.159


User currently offlinePe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 19236 posts, RR: 52
Reply 12, posted (6 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3568 times:



Quoting TKfan (Reply 11):
TK, their operational costs per seat-kilometer is $0.078

Very low for such an airline. What are they doing to reduce it still further?



"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 3445 times:



Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 12):
Very low for such an airline. What are they doing to reduce it still further?

Indeed very low for a legacy carrier, but I doubt theres any room for further reductions, especially with the rising fuel prices.

Maybe these points will help to reduce some operational costs:

*Joint use of Star Alliance facilities
*keeping a young fleet; they have already the youngest fleet of AEA-Carriers
*further optimizing of fleet and personnel utilization


User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 3431 times:



Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 10):

True Emirates is a big Competitior for TK, so is Qatar, Ethiad and others. And sure EK will take some Pax from IST but Istanbul is also feeding all other international Carriers.

I didnt get the sentence of Temel Kotil what he is implying with to fill large A/C. Emirates was a guess of me. but to make an example with EK/Dubai; Emirates does not serve a lot secondary Airports in Europe. So TK has a lot more potential to get these people to feed their DXB (or other Eastern) flights.


User currently offlinePe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 19236 posts, RR: 52
Reply 15, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 3428 times:



Quoting TKfan (Reply 13):
very low for a legacy carrier, but I doubt theres any room for further reductions, especially with the rising fuel prices.

Does your $0.078 CASM include fuel? I ask because W6, for example, has a fuel-exclusive CASM of $0.06 or so, but when fuel is included it's around $0.10.



"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3405 times:



Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 15):
Does your $0.078 CASM include fuel?

Yes, its including Fuel Expenses. It makes about 28% of all operating expenses, followed by personnel expenses with 24%.

Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 15):
I ask because W6, for example, has a fuel-exclusive CASM of $0.06 or so, but when fuel is included it's around $0.10.

Quite interesting, that they have about $0.04 fuel costs per miles. If calculated for TK (1 Mile=1.61 KM) its about $0.035

Excuse my ignorance, which airline is W6 and what kind of fleet do they operate?


User currently offlinePe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 19236 posts, RR: 52
Reply 17, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3387 times:



Quoting TKfan (Reply 16):
Excuse my ignorance, which airline is W6 and what kind of fleet do they operate?

Wizz Air. 320s.

Perhaps ATW got its fuel-inclusive CASM wrong. Who knows? Perhaps it was $0.06-ish INCLUDING fuel. Will see if I can clarify it.



"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 3313 times:



Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 17):
Wizz Air. 320s.

Thank you; checked their site, about 17 A320. and with 180 seats per Aircraft.

Strange if they have really a fuel cost/SM of $0.04 as their A320 hast 180 Seats.


User currently offlineBrightCedars From Belgium, joined Nov 2004, 1289 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 3285 times:



Quoting TKfan (Reply 14):
Emirates does not serve a lot secondary Airports in Europe.

True. However I am convinced that this will change in the coming 5 years where the A380s take over the existing network and the rest of the fleet rolls over as B773/A346 iso B772, B772/A343 iso A332, A332 to new cities.
All these "secondary" cities will soon or late see the light of EK ops (e.g. AMS, BRU, CPH,...).



I want the European Union flag on airliners.net!
User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 3180 times:



Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 19):
All these "secondary" cities will soon or late see the light of EK ops (e.g. AMS, BRU, CPH,...).

I would consider AMS, BRU, CPH not only as primary european airports, but also big hubs, especially AMS. With secondary airports I mean smaller airports like BIO, AGP, LYS, GOT, BGE, BTS, BSL, NUE, HAJ, CGN, STR, ZAG, LJU, BEG, SJJ, SKP, SOF......

EK would be the only Airline to serve some of the above mentioned Airports with widebodies.


User currently offlineBrightCedars From Belgium, joined Nov 2004, 1289 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 3168 times:



Quoting TKfan (Reply 20):
I would consider AMS, BRU, CPH not only as primary european airports, but also big hubs, especially AMS. With secondary airports I mean smaller airports like BIO, AGP, LYS, GOT, BGE, BTS, BSL, NUE, HAJ, CGN, STR, ZAG, LJU, BEG, SJJ, SKP, SOF......

EK would be the only Airline to serve some of the above mentioned Airports with widebodies.

Totally agree with you. The fact is AGP, HAJ, LYS, STR (CGN is not served but DUS is), the bigger markets among the list (I may oversee some) will be served by EK and the other ones will support the growth of a hub at IST but not in the scale that we're talking about. EK will expand its German network, although I agree that there it won't be as much as competition for TK as a high ratio of the traffic is O&D Germany-Turkey, what would be the point of connecting in Dubai to go to Turkey, but this will not feed into any hub operation.

A bit off topic but maybe you can help with my ignorance on the matter: is there a good train network in Turkey? I mean covering the large population centers and with frequent and possibly high-speed connections? Surely with such a big population some high speed train links would be useful, and another factor to take into account when planning growth.

I've visited only Istanbul so I can't say I know Turkey - except a bit thru my Turkish friends, I hope to drive all the way from Belgium to Lebanon one day and then I'm sure I'll get to know the country better!



I want the European Union flag on airliners.net!
User currently offlineTKfan From Turkey, joined Oct 2007, 660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 3062 times:



Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 21):
A bit off topic but maybe you can help with my ignorance on the matter: is there a good train network in Turkey?

Unfortunately no. For the size of Turkey the rail network is laughable.
In recent years they start to build High Speed Railways between Istanbul and Ankara and through the Marmaray Project (including Tunnel under Bosphorus) to Europe. Its partly operational. Next steps will be Ankara-Konya and Ankara-Izmir.
Hope they will continue the constructions eastwards of Ankara.


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