Joeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 873 posts, RR: 0 Posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8490 times:
Decided to start a new thread. I posted on the other F9 thread but I feel like it's gonna warrant a new one. Only check some cities but here you go, if you want to check you own city go to:
ShannoninAMA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 1, posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8475 times:
Quoting Joeljack (Thread starter):
DEN-IND goes to 5x319, one being an overnight flight leaving at 1235am arriving at 5:03am.
Toss another flight in the fire for the four-way DEN-IND wars. Looks like F9 wants control of this route. UA is sitting back on its heels, WN is still "testing the waters" per say, and NW is still poised to start their summer nonstops IND-DEN. I see each airline getting their "Piece of the cookie", but not a big enough piece to turn a profit.
Almost makes me think of a mini-version of the luxury market NYC-LON. Oversaturation sorts itself out eventually.
DTWAGENT From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1283 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8441 times:
I wonder if they are going to start doing some vacation packages (like Apple,Funjet ect) out of IND to Mexico? That would be one reason for the overnight flight. Other then that I don't understand why they would do that. F9 needs to take a good hard look at their cities they are servicing and decide if they make money or not on them. If not then they need to drop that city like a rock and put that aircraft on a city pair that is making money for them.
ShannoninAMA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 5, posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8347 times:
Quoting Mariner (Reply 4):
Frontier doesn't want "control" of any route.
Nitpicking on my choice of "control"? I almost used Dominance if that makes it better. What other objective would they be shooting for in a market that is oversaturated like this?
All I see is a bloodbath scenario where airlines are trying to outlast each other rather than make money. Then again, that could be said for the entire industry right now I suppose..
Boeing743 From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 406 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8315 times:
I am surprised that F9 are offered 5 flights as one of route usually to be used by F9 Republic Airlines and guess with contract not renew so A319 would replace flight that are used by Republic Airlines. I am surprised that they would leave DEN after midnight to IND on short 2 1/2 hrs flight. I am not sure if it is smart thing to do on that route.
I guess we will have to keep our eyes and ears peeled to see how all of 4 airlines would do with that routes and cost of fares. I think that F9 would do just fine with 4 daily flights.
WorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 7, posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8297 times:
Quoting Mariner (Reply 4): Quoting ShannoninAMA (Reply 1):
Looks like F9 wants control of this route.
Frontier doesn't want "control" of any route.
oh please. After looking at this schedule, their credit card processor will be demanding 100% holdbacks.
There is no conceivable way F9 can make it given the horrendous competitive assault that is being thrown at them in DEN and the astronomical fuel prices.
It is very hard to believe F9 can make it through the summer; living into the fall is a pipe dream.
Spencerii From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 8, posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8298 times:
Quoting Mariner (Reply 4): What do you think Mr. Menke has been doing this last six months?
mariner
Exactly, and I do believe he is doing just that, although the IND frequencies are interesting. Perhaps Mr Menke is setting F9 up to proactively send/receive feed through IND with Airtran to points SE of IND- mainly into Florida.
MSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6242 posts, RR: 51 Reply 10, posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8279 times:
Too many cooks spoil the broth. Good for IND consumers, bad for profits of the airlines flying the route. Seems like too much competition on a relatively thin (492 pax/day) market. But, the planes have to go somewhere I guess.
Mariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 22719 posts, RR: 88 Reply 12, posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8264 times:
Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7): oh please. After looking at this schedule, their credit card processor will be demanding 100% holdbacks.
Hello - that happened. Or rather - it didn't happen.
Quoting Boeing743 (Reply 6): I am surprised that they would leave DEN after midnight to IND on short 2 1/2 hrs flight. I am not sure if it is smart thing to do on that route.
It worked great for them on DEN-DTW last summer, which is not that much further.
Both words imply a concern for market share. Under Mr. Menke, Frontier is revenue driven, not market share driven.
So if they aren't aiming for market share, what warrants adding another flight when many already consider the market oversaturated?
I find it hard to believe they are filling 4 A319's daily alongside 3 (soon to be 4) other airlines operating the same route. On another note..I wonder how much traffic WN will be able to siphon from the other three carriers?
Mariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 22719 posts, RR: 88 Reply 14, posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 8175 times:
Quoting ShannoninAMA (Reply 13): So if they aren't aiming for market share, what warrants adding another flight when many already consider the market oversaturated?
Presumably, because they believe they can make money.
Was about to edit my post for that Meant to say something along the lines of this:
If they truely believe they can pull a profit in a tough market such as this, then who are we to stop them? Heck, we can't stop them anyway. I'll gladly grab a seat and watch how this ends up.
Shan (Who is beginning to think she is better suited for Non-Av)
MSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6242 posts, RR: 51 Reply 19, posted (5 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 8123 times:
Quoting Boeing743 (Reply 6): I am surprised that they would leave DEN after midnight to IND on short 2 1/2 hrs flight. I am not sure if it is smart thing to do on that route.
Other airlines have in the past flown redeye flights with similar or less stage lengths....AA, for example, from cities like PHX, ELP, LAS, SAN, LAX to DFW.
I'm seeing GEG at 3x 319's. Flight 309 departing DEN at 0835, 304 departing DEN 1235 and 308 departing DEN 2130. I was talking with the F9 station manager today in GEG and she was saying there is a possibility of going 4 daily during the summer as well but said she wouldn't have an answer on that one for a few weeks. Though with UA also offering 3x daily I highly doubt it will happen.
26 AirFrnt: Don't feed the troll. You are forgetting my personal fav - DEN - ATL. I end up using that flight frequently. I have always been surprised at how few
27 EXAAUADL: These are absurd....F9 use to the THE airline in DEN-MCI, now down to three roundtrips??? Meanwhile ABQ and IND are way way overserrved. If youre gon
28 STLGph: scroll up. it was an error. there are 6 daily.
29 Joeljack: It won't let me edit my initial post, it was a typo, it supposed to be 6x319 to MCI. Mods, can you edit this for me? Depending on the date you choose
30 Mariner: Best advice anyone has given me in a while. I'm out of the other thread. Since the MCI figure appears (?) to be wrong, how much can we trust? Is JAC
31 MSYtristar: I wonder if BOI will be able to sustain mainline year-round? IIRC, it was started as all mainline initially, and then went to all Horizon CR7 service,
32 Mariner: So do I, but I suspect the immediate concern was to cover the Republic flying asap. As such, I guess SM used the coming summer to his advantage. The
33 MSYtristar: That, my friend, is the understatement of the year.
34 Rockinflyer: Seems like SAN-IND nonstops would be a natural for someone. I've seen comments posted that it is the largest city pair in the US without nonstops.
35 SAN787: please please please, Frontier, Southwest, Northwest/Delta...someone step up to the plate!!!! SAN-IND!!!!
36 Cadet57: So, they diddnt cancel it? Sweet! I've been meaning to get out and see it land.
37 Mariner: Here's one. They're taking one A320 off DEN-DCA for three or four week-ends in May and putting it onto DEN-MCO. Smart move. mariner
38 AWACSooner: Well, here's hoping they're at least still around in mid-August, as I booked r/t on em from OKC to LAS for four people.
39 Rockinflyer: It does seem like an obvious market for nonstops, eh? With F9 messing around with their route map and schedules, this would be surefire winner in my
40 TN757Flyer: Agreed. Choice of words is irrelevant. Isn't it the job of ANY airline to dominate a market, and when and if possible, run the competition out of the
41 Boeing743: I know you would sure enjoy non stop from SAN-IND but would there be enough passengers to do the non stop flight between those 2 cities?? Also rememb
42 Mariner: I don't think so - or, at least, not for a small airline like Frontier. I can't speak for the legacy carriers. mariner
43 Boeing743: It will be IND first red-eyes for while because last time we had red-eyes from west coast would be on ATA from LAS-IND. That did not last long before
44 TN757Flyer: Well, unless I am missing something key here, I beg to differ. No airline flies to be second, third, or worse in a market. They fly it to be profitab
45 Mariner: Then don't buy it. But it is provably true that the time of Frontier's best profits was when United was the clear and undeniable dominant force, both
46 SANFan: Rock', I wouldn't agree with that statement but the definition of "largest city pair" would need to be clarified... I (along, apparently, with the SD
47 Nkops: I would think it would be to turn a profit on a market regardless of who else is in it..
48 TN757Flyer: Yes, of course. And if there is a competitor in your market? Do you prefer to share the market or have it all to yourself? Obviously certain city pai
49 FreequentFlier: This discussion of IND makes me wonder where F9 would be today had they developed a second hub in IND 4-5 years ago. Probably in a lot better shape...
50 PlanesNTrains: Isn't hindsight wonderful? I don't know about you, but mine is 20/20. -Dave
51 Mariner: That is the Conventional Wisdom. But whichever airline is in Southwest's crosshairs at DEN - if any really is - the one downsizing at DEN is United,
52 TN757Flyer: Agreed. The same can be said for most every major at every airport. Nobody, nowhere escapes the ax this downturn.
53 Mariner: The particular problem for United - at DEN - is that it pre-dates this downturn, by some years. Ted, aka The Frontier Killer, was designed to stop th
54 LACA773: LAX stays the same in regards to their DEN schedule but is down one flight with the discontinuation of SJD.
55 EXAAUADL: are you kidding, they'd be likely out of business. Their niche is the local DEN market. They get pretty decent yields there. On their experiments tha
56 Cubsrule: Knowing what we know now, it's not all that outrageous. NW does fine at IND after building the focus city from basically nothing; with lower costs, F
57 Mariner: The debate about a potential second hub for Frontier has gone on as long as I have had an interest in the airline. At the time of non-DEN expansion,
58 Cubsrule: Agreed. I'm not sure it's the price of oil per se that doomed the Mexican p2ps... it's more of the one-two punch of expensive oil and less demand for
59 LoneStarMike: Where did he suggest that F9 would have a higher yield premium at IND than at DEN? He didn't. He suggested that F9 might be better off if they had ha
60 Mariner: I shrug. That may all be true. I have seen no evidence the demand for Mexican leisure travel is slackening (for Frontier at DEN/SLC/MCI) to any great
61 Cubsrule: Were they running extra sections to the US stations from DEN to position aircraft or somehow bridging them through CUN? My recollection is that the a
62 Mariner: I'm not a scheduler, although it seems to me that one example alone is a stress. I am using the financial advice we were given, either on a CC or at
63 Rockinflyer: That city pair is screaming for nonstops! Again, as posted in many other threads, SAN-IND is the largest market lacking nonstops.
64 TN757Flyer: It overnighted in BNA pretty much it's entire existence. Would it not be logical the following morning flight back to CUN then went elsewhere? Then o
65 Cubsrule: I do think greater frequency helps with aircraft scheduling, but I'm not sure it gets us so far with crew scheduling, unfortunately.
66 Mariner: And if it goes mx or wx in CUN or BNA? mariner
67 TN757Flyer: IIRC, most all the CUN "spokes" were 3x weekly aside from DEN. I assume Mariner can enlighten us, but the same issue would be had at all the stations
68 Cubsrule: I'm not seeing where you're coming from... how does aircraft rotation affect the chance for the aircraft breaking or bad weather (somewhere) screwing
69 Mariner: No, really, I can't, because I am not a scheduler and it doesn't interest me all that much. I do know that LAX-SJD, for example, was 1 x daily and SL
70 Cubsrule: Do you know how they position planes/crews for that flying? Are they running extra revenue sections or flying them empty? And what routes are they fl
71 TN757Flyer: They are still Sat/Sun at BNA in May. Apple Vacations I believe according to an ad in last week's Sunday paper travel section.
72 Mariner: Really, no. (a) I live in New Zealand and (b) even with a micron spectrometer I could not find my interest in aircraft/crew scheduling. I leave all t
73 Mariner: Yes, until the end of June. Then it goes away. Here is the complete schedue - as it stands at the moment: http://www.frontierairlines.com:80/f...tes-
74 Cubsrule: Did BNA-CUN start with an Apple contract or was it a child of the CUN buildup? Or did they all start with Apple contracts? Surely THAT question is wi
75 Mariner: It was never Apple, to my knowledge. It started as a child of the CUN build-up and later there was a contract with Vacation Express which guaranteed
76 KingCavalier: This should give you an idea of some the Frontier aircraft routing for the Mexican P2P's. 419 A319 Daily DEN LAX 2140 2307 20 A319 6 LAX SJD 0700 0923
77 KingCavalier: TN757Flyer, Here is BNA's CUN routing. The last day for BNA-CUN is June 1. 232 A319 Daily DEN BNA 1030 1404 52 A319 6 7 BNA CUN 1505 1748 53 A319 6 7
78 Cubsrule: What does flight 232 do 12345? Is there a weekday only afternoon flight?
79 TN757Flyer: Thanks. I knew it was going away soon. Heard a rumor some of the travel agencies want it picked up, but I would not know who's in a position to do th
80 KingCavalier: Flight 232 is daily DEN-BNA. Flight 52 is on 6 & 7 from BNA to CUN.
81 Cubsrule: Sorry, I was unclear. Where does the aircraft that operates 232 on 12345 go? Back to DEN as a weekday only flight?
83 Tripleboom: It's already been changed. At least 02JUN08-22JUN08 the red-eye will be an E-170... F9 4610 DEN-IND 0035-0504 E70 F9 616 DEN-IND 0700-1128 319 F9 618
84 Enilria: I was looking at DEN-IND. It costs ~$65 one-way in JUNE!!! That doesn't cover fuel. Running 5x up against UA/NW/WN is suicide. They are doomed if the
85 Mariner: SM doing what he does so well. I almost think he enjoys that game. mariner
86 Tripleboom: There has been an E-170 on the route for some time now. It's because of the RW MX base in IND. They have to rotate the 170's through there for routin
87 Mariner: Any clues as to why CUN is seeing such a bump the next few weeks? Usually, by this time, it is starting to get a little softer, but I see they're put
88 Tripleboom: WOW! I actually hadn't noticed that, but I've seen with much more regularity the A320s getting shifted around to better match capacity to demand. Clea
89 TN757Flyer: Spring break perhaps? I don't know when most schools let out but I know some local state colleges are out next week.
90 KingCavalier: You need a lesson in revenue management. How many seats do you think are sold at this 14-day advance purchase level? With taxes, the fare is closer t
91 Mariner: You may be right, I'm not in the States, but I thought Spring Break was over? http://studenttravel.about.com/od/springbrea1/f/when_spring_bre.htm "As
92 Rampart: Is Frontier a designated carrier for some event or conference?? Spring Break is long gone. I doubt there is a significant jump from students finishin
93 Tripleboom: I imagine the 22nd of May upgrade has something to do with Memorial Day weekend coming up. I wouldn't be surprised to see some more re-shuffling of t
94 JohnJ: You have until September 4 to see Frontier at Bradley. If you want to see it land, you'd better be prepared to get up mighty early in the morning and
95 Mariner: I don't think so - or, I don't know of any - but it appears to be across the board. SLC-CUN is chocker on Saturday as well. The other surprise, to me
96 LAXintl: In general regional tourism is experiencing quite strong demand as likely result of people look for overall cheaper travel options due economic malais
97 LoneStarMike: I think you hit the nail on the head. There was a recent article in the Austin American-Statesman about VivaAerobus' planned service from AUS to MTY
98 Petteri: We've been able to call Operations in Denver to get a 136 (as opposed to a 132) seat 319 when we've been oversold. Re-protection from FLL to DEN is b
99 TN757Flyer: That was just a guess. Like I said I know some local schools are closed next week. Not knowing anyone of college age, it's something I don't keep up
100 Cubsrule: Most colleges are done with spring break (heck, I've started exams), but there may be the odd one that has a break around now (i.e. schools on trimes
101 Enilria: No, they need a lesson in revenue management. In June zero seats should be sold for $65. June is one of the best months of the year. If they are sell
102 Mariner: That's fair. I'm a bit vague about that stuff myself. From this great distance, I rely on the public sources - of which, sadly, the least reliable ca
103 Cubsrule: I'd be interested to know the breakdown of that growth, though I suspect it's mostly or exclusively due to leisure traffic... it seems counterintuiti
104 LAXintl: In general during economic slowdowns its business travel that suffers the most. Folks still take vacations - just tend to take shorter/closer trips. M
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