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CO TransPac Traffic Down 12% In April  
User currently offlineJustloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1065 posts, RR: 1
Posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5427 times:

Any theories on trasnpac decline? TATL was up 10%, guessing from LHR.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080501/lath125.html?.v=36

40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineYellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6359 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5399 times:

MAybe increased fares hurting.


When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineNwab787techops From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 219 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 5294 times:

Remember, CO pulled down some Pacific ops (eg HNL-NGO) to open LHR

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21590 posts, RR: 59
Reply 3, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 5241 times:



Quoting Justloveplanes (Thread starter):
Any theories on trasnpac decline? TATL was up 10%, guessing from LHR.

And Easter was in March…



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineCALMSP From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4050 posts, RR: 8
Reply 4, posted (6 years 8 months 22 hours ago) and read 5072 times:
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we also downgraded capacity on the LAX-HNL route.


okay, I'm waiting for the rich to spread the wealth around to me. Please mail your checks to my house.
User currently offlineWesternA318 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 5727 posts, RR: 24
Reply 5, posted (6 years 8 months 22 hours ago) and read 5034 times:

So has all Hawaii flying from the mainland been substituted to 752s (aside from IAH and EWR to HNL)?


Check out my blog at fl310travel.blogspot.com!
User currently offlineAloha73G From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2372 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (6 years 8 months 22 hours ago) and read 5017 times:



Quoting WesternA318 (Reply 5):
So has all Hawaii flying from the mainland been substituted to 752s (aside from IAH and EWR to HNL)?

The only CO flight to Hawai'i aside from IAH and EWR is LAX-HNL.

-Aloha!



Aloha Airlines - The Spirit Moves Us. Gone but NEVER Forgotten. Aloha, A Hui Hou!
User currently offlineSac From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 98 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (6 years 8 months 20 hours ago) and read 4851 times:

Only LAX-HNL is operated by the 752 - IAH/EWR-HNL are operated by the 764

User currently offlineContinental180 From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 144 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (6 years 8 months 20 hours ago) and read 4807 times:

continental isnt strong in that region(transpacific)....much stronger in the europe market, transatlantic

User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (6 years 8 months 19 hours ago) and read 4743 times:



Quoting CALMSP (Reply 4):
we also downgraded capacity on the LAX-HNL route.

Hawaii is domestic flying by DOT standards which is what these reports are based on. Transpac is flying to Asia except what is flown over the Atlantic which for CO is EWR-India and TLV.

Easter has nothing to do with it. They have pulled capacity throughout the quarter and their LF is still shrinking. UA has reported a similar phenomenon as well. NW has not so it appears to be non-Japan related.


User currently offlineWesternA318 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 5727 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (6 years 8 months 19 hours ago) and read 4699 times:



Quoting Continental180 (Reply 8):
continental isnt strong in that region(transpacific)....much stronger in the europe market, transatlantic

It was never meant to be the biggest player in the TransPac market, although the numbers are slowly going up, all we have are the EWR-Asia and IAH-NRT flights alongside the GUM minihub and Island hopper service. I'd like to see CO grow even a fraction bit more out of GUM, perhaps even direct LAX/IAH? Alkthough there are no spare a/c, perhaps when the 787 comes online?



Check out my blog at fl310travel.blogspot.com!
User currently offline777gk From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 1641 posts, RR: 18
Reply 11, posted (6 years 8 months 18 hours ago) and read 4658 times:

As mentioned, the big culprit is the loss of HNL-NGO.

RPMs are down 12% on a capacity reduction of 7.8%. Most of that is coming from the aforementioned cut.

Certainly not something to be very alarmed about.


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (6 years 8 months 11 hours ago) and read 4411 times:

whenever traffic is shrinking on reduced capacity, something is wrong. There are indeed alarms going off in Houston.

User currently offlineAA7295 From Australia, joined Aug 2007, 622 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (6 years 8 months 9 hours ago) and read 4311 times:

Advertising/Marketing of CNS-GUM is non-existent. I don't know how they make money off the route. Guam is a great alternative to Hawaii for Australians.

User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (6 years 8 months 8 hours ago) and read 4272 times:



Quoting 777gk (Reply 11):
Certainly not something to be very alarmed about.

How, or why do you come to that conclusion? Surely if capacity has been reduced and load factors have since declined then it certainly is something for an airline to be alarmed about.


User currently offlineFlyHoss From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 598 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (6 years 8 months 2 hours ago) and read 4064 times:



Quoting AA7295 (Reply 13):
Advertising/Marketing of CNS-GUM is non-existent. I don't know how they make money off the route. Guam is a great alternative to Hawaii for Australians.

Isn't the traffic between the GUM and CNS primarily Japanese tourists (who connect in GUM to or from various Japan cities)? I believe you'll find the marketing efforts to be focused on Japan.

Quoting 777gk (Reply 11):
As mentioned, the big culprit is the loss of HNL-NGO.

RPMs are down 12% on a capacity reduction of 7.8%. Most of that is coming from the aforementioned cut.

Certainly not something to be very alarmed about.

Does anyone have any idea information about the "Golden Week" traffic this year? Is it up or down compared to last year?



A little bit louder now, a lil bit louder now...
User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3489 posts, RR: 10
Reply 16, posted (6 years 8 months 2 hours ago) and read 3947 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 12):
whenever traffic is shrinking on reduced capacity, something is wrong. There are indeed alarms going off in Houston.

Exactly what I was thinking. CO cut capacity and traffic fell further than capacity did. Signs that more cuts need to be made or something needs to change, load factors dropped in every single region. Yikes.

Jeremy


User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5604 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (6 years 8 months 1 hour ago) and read 3839 times:



Quoting SESGDL (Reply 16):
Signs that more cuts need to be made or something needs to change, load factors dropped in every single region.

During the April earnings conference call, CO said that the financial services industry was not providing the expected levels of bookings. Yesterday the WSJ said announced layoffs in the sector have exceeded 20,000, mostly in NYC, and are expected to climb. So, it's likely that CO's drops in traffic are probably concentrated in EWR.



I love long German words like 'Freundschaftsbezeigungen'.
User currently offlineJustloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1065 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (6 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 3608 times:



Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 17):
During the April earnings conference call, CO said that the financial services industry was not providing the expected levels of bookings. Yesterday the WSJ said announced layoffs in the sector have exceeded 20,000, mostly in NYC, and are expected to climb. So, it's likely that CO's drops in traffic are probably concentrated in EWR.

Possible, but let me offer an alternative explanation. I can no longer fly CO from IAH to BKK. I used to be able to do so via the Skyteam alliance with NWA. I can still do so and pay $4K for economy while NWA charges less than 1/2 that. Right now, CO business IAH to BKK is $15K(!). CO EWR to Hong Kong by comparison is $1400 economy for a non-stop. These changes have been in place since March for economy and in April the business class went through the roof.

It seems Skyteam to me is not giving CO any seats at all for connections except at an exhorbitant premium. Practically speaking, CO has lost it's Asian partner. Skyteam, doesn't look good.


User currently offlineCO777ER From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 691 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (6 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 3558 times:



Quoting WesternA318 (Reply 10):
I'd like to see CO grow even a fraction bit more out of GUM, perhaps even direct LAX/IAH?

I highly doubt CO could fill up 50% of the seats if they flew from IAH.


User currently offlineCALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2731 posts, RR: 9
Reply 20, posted (6 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 3535 times:

whenever traffic is shrinking on reduced capacity, something is wrong. There are indeed alarms going off in Houston.

Let's not get overly dramatic. Most of this is due to HNL-NGO being pulled for LHR.

We don't have the revenue figures on the Pacific, do we? I don't think CO has alarms going off in IAH - systemwide LF dropped a few points in April, but RASM's continued to rise. Easter was in March this year and yields have to be up.

World Traveler, Is DL panicking in ATL with a 8.2% LF drop in the Pacific in March? Even with Easter in March, DL's probably not concerned as their Pacific yield was shown with a 14.5% increase.

http://news.delta.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=11053


User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3489 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (6 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3475 times:



Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 20):
Let's not get overly dramatic. Most of this is due to HNL-NGO being pulled for LHR.

The whole domestic system experienced lower traffic despite cuts, and I highly doubt the cutting of one route had anything to do with that. CO either didn't cut enough of its system, or they cut the wrong things.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 20):
World Traveler, Is DL panicking in ATL with a 8.2% LF drop in the Pacific in March? Even with Easter in March, DL's probably not concerned as their Pacific yield was shown with a 14.5% increase.

That is more to do with the starting of new routes, namely ATL-ICN and ATL-PVG. Had they been long established on these routes that would be another story. When a company is growing capacity then lower load factors are understandable, but with CO this was not the case. It will be interesting to see other major's figures this week.

Jeremy


User currently offlineJustloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1065 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (6 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3439 times:



Quoting 777gk (Reply 11):
As mentioned, the big culprit is the loss of HNL-NGO.

RPMs are down 12% on a capacity reduction of 7.8%. Most of that is coming from the aforementioned cut.

Certainly not something to be very alarmed about.

The load factor drop transpac was 3.9% which is closer to what is really happening when you take out HNL-NGO. Still a sizable drop, but maybe seasonal. April is the first month of the off season in SE Asia for tourism.


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (6 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 3320 times:



Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 20):
World Traveler, Is DL panicking in ATL with a 8.2% LF drop in the Pacific in March?

considering they have something like a 160% increase in capacity, no. DL is obviously going to shift its focus to the Pacific for the next couple years so they will do what they have to do to establish a solid footing.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 20):
Most of this is due to HNL-NGO being pulled for LHR.

if loadson HNL-NGO were that high that it pulled up the entire pacific system and still lost money, it should have been dropped a long time ago.

The point is still that CO's traffic on its REMAINING services declined more than its capacity fell. If NYC was the reason, then that is plausible but it does explain a real problem. It's more than just "no big deal."


User currently offlineWesternA318 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 5727 posts, RR: 24
Reply 24, posted (6 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3256 times:



Quoting CO777ER (Reply 19):
I highly doubt CO could fill up 50% of the seats if they flew from IAH.

Hrmm, does the 762ER have the range for it by any stretch of the imagination?

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 20):
World Traveler, Is DL panicking in ATL with a 8.2% LF drop in the Pacific in March?

Call me ignorant, but what Pacific ops does DL have?



Check out my blog at fl310travel.blogspot.com!
25 Charlipr : ATL-NRT ATL-ICN ATL-PVG
26 CALPSAFltSkeds : Interestingly enough, all the "Pacific" operations of DL (ATL-NRT/ICN/PVG), according to Great Circle mapper, are over the Bering Sea, Chuchi Sea or
27 Jgarrido : As a controller here in Guam, we (me and my coworkers) have been commentiong for a while how it seems traffic is slowing down. We didn't have any numb
28 WesternA318 : Hmm, while in my opinion, the 777 requirement would be so that our T7's could have another alternate airport in the region, I would say a 762/764/787
29 777gk : GUM is more than 777-capable right now, and there is very little need for it purely as an alternate, as no current CO 777 flights traverse airspace w
30 WesternA318 : Well that answers the question, lol. But still, would a 767 do any sort of justice on a route like IAH or LAX to GUM?
31 Justloveplanes : CO really needs a pacific hub IMHO. Can a 738 ETOPS get from Guam to say...BKK?
32 SESGDL : Sure, besides the fact that there is ZERO demand from IAH to GUM. LAX-GUM may work 3-4x weekly with a 762ER, but anything more than that would be ove
33 B2443 : Well, there's no CO EWR-PVG yet till Mar 2009. But CO does fly EWR-PEK, over the Greenland, which, according to your 'definition', should not be cate
34 Jgarrido : I disagree. The final destination for the vast majority of people on the flight from GUM to HNL is NOT Hawaii. Socal, TX and the Pacific NW all have
35 Tommy767 : Yeah I seriously don't understand why CO doesn't connect GUM one of their 'hubs' to one of their US mainland hubs (IE: IAH)
36 SESGDL : I think if the demand existed they would have done it. That's the reason there's no mainland service to GUM at the current time by CO. Jeremy
37 WesternA318 : I would agree on this, or at least build GUM up as a connector hub, much like AA tried with STL, or UA does with DEN. Even this would be a great star
38 Justloveplanes : CO is very short of long haul aircraft. The fact that they are not pulling a 764 that's full is pretty telling. I too am hoping Guam can be made a fl
39 MasseyBrown : Look at the great circle routes out of GUM. Guam's misfortune is that it's not on the way to anywhere. Only a few cities in SE Asia are reasonable sp
40 Justapassenger : Right now most of the Guam flights are timed for Japanese tourists, although in the summer months CO’s connections are good enough that they offer t
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