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How Long Will AS "Most West" Last?  
User currently offlineAlexinwa From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1142 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 6057 times:

As much as I would love to say this is a good idea......I can't!!!

Unless UA,WN,B6, and VX all fold in the next month.........I give this till mid summer before it's all over.

It reminds me of United build-ups in the late 90's and pre 9/11......hourly flights to LAX/SFO almost 15 daily to DEN and ORD and they flew half empty on almost all flights.

With fuel being as such and that much capacity AS has got to be thinking twice??? They can't do this for very long in an attempt to drive out VX/B6??


You mad Bro???
49 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAY104 From Canada, joined Nov 2005, 505 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 6030 times:

Haven't heard of this, but I can guess it's trying to saturate a certain market with overcapacity. Delta also did that, I believe in the early 90's, hourly flights between SFO and LAX. Even had a small snack in F! Those were the days, and although fuel was cheaper it still wasn't a success. Pretty shortlived if I remember.
I have to agree with you, I think it's pretty foolhardy in these times.
Cheers,
Carl



The only thing a customer should expect for his/her loyalty is good service
User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26196 posts, RR: 76
Reply 2, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 6019 times:



Quoting Alexinwa (Thread starter):

It reminds me of United build-ups in the late 90's and pre 9/11......hourly flights to LAX/SFO almost 15 daily to DEN and ORD and they flew half empty on almost all flights.

LAX-SFO is still essentially hourly, 10 a day to DEN and 11 a day to ORD



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineAlexinwa From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1142 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 5847 times:



Quoting N1120A (Reply 2):
LAX-SFO is still essentially hourly, 10 a day to DEN and 11 a day to ORD

Currently correct?

The UA build-up last one summer,.....the reason was business travelers.......at one point UA had close to 70 daily Dep out of SEA......down to 32 now I think, that build-up was the beginning of the end.

Quoting AY104 (Reply 1):
Haven't heard of this, but I can guess it's trying to saturate a certain market with overcapacity.

Exactly,.....UA has been slowing treading backwards at SEA for years, WN has been slowly moving up but only to SJC and OAK (The one major hole in the WN route system SEA-SOCAL non-stop, IMHO) With VX moving in and B6 moving in this was a attempt by AS to force them out. 15 daily to LAX 10 SFO 8 OAK 8 SJC, etc. I thought the total was 74 daily SEA-CALI



You mad Bro???
User currently offlineHNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 817 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 5797 times:



Quoting Alexinwa (Reply 3):
WN has been slowly moving up but only to SJC and OAK (The one major hole in the WN route system SEA-SOCAL non-stop, IMHO) With VX moving in and B6 moving in this was a attempt by AS to force them out. 15 daily to LAX 10 SFO 8 OAK 8 SJC, etc. I thought the total was 74 daily SEA-CALI

Given the penetration of AS's frequent flyer program in Puget Sound, it doesn't sound like a bad strategy to me. It's called "keep your customers off the competition."



Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
User currently offlinePhatfarmlines From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 1343 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 5793 times:



Quoting Alexinwa (Thread starter):
As much as I would love to say this is a good idea......I can't!!!



Quoting Alexinwa (Thread starter):
With fuel being as such and that much capacity AS has got to be thinking twice??? They can't do this for very long in an attempt to drive out VX/B6??

Agreed. This was a poor strategic move by AS. Maybe if fuel was significantly cheaper they can get away with the reduction in fares that they will have to offer. Another thorn towards AS is that Branson will have no problems offering VX "loans" to keep the operation running.


User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3197 posts, RR: 10
Reply 6, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 5768 times:



Quoting Phatfarmlines (Reply 5):
nother thorn towards AS is that Branson will have no problems offering VX "loans" to keep the operation running.

Guy's don't forget branson has deep pokets...and that he's done this before with a certain carrier named Ansett. Get them when they're financially week and hang on till they go under.


User currently offlineHNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 817 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 5751 times:



Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 6):
uy's don't forget branson has deep pockets...and that he's done this before with a certain carrier named Ansett. Get them when they're financially week and hang on till they go under.

Perhaps Branson has deep pockets, but so far his expansion into these various "Virgin" carriers has been minimal...and of course in the U.S. there are some pretty severe restrictions relating to ability to provide financial support.

Virgin's primary problem in Puget Sound is the service AS provides to a multitude of markets. AS controls the market and its frequent flyers. A niche carrier serving only a couple of markets, admitted high volume markets, isn't going to be able to attract the loyalty of frequent flyers in the Seattle area.



Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
User currently offlineFreequentFlier From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 875 posts, RR: 12
Reply 8, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 5734 times:



Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 6):
Guy's don't forget branson has deep pokets...and that he's done this before with a certain carrier named Ansett. Get them when they're financially week and hang on till they go under.

The other problem again is that he has to find investors willing to match his money 3 to 1. SRB has deep pockets, but he better have a lot of friends in order to keep VX afloat. AS appears to be going for the jugular on the west coast. VX had just announced two new SFO-SEA frequencies and now AS responds with two of their own right away.


User currently offlineJetJeanes From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 1429 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 5735 times:

By around the end of sept Many will fold in the U.S. and there will be a national flight reduction of at least 50 to 60 percent.
We will see Airlines parking planes early after the summer. Us Airlines cant keep up with 130 a barrell with a reasonable price and rates look to go to 150 to 200. There is forcast already for several hundred planes to be parked or returned to the lessors or leased to overseas carriers. Dont shoot the messenger.. when fares triple



i can see for 80 miles
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21417 posts, RR: 60
Reply 10, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 5625 times:



Quoting JetJeanes (Reply 9):
There is forcast already for several hundred planes to be parked or returned to the lessors or leased to overseas carriers. Dont shoot the messenger.. when fares triple

Math bad. $200 will not make fares triple. Right now, at $115 barrel of oil, fuel cost is 50%. At $200, that increases cost by 35-40%. This is still a big deal, but it would not require airfares to increase 3 fold.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineSMF711 From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 24 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5598 times:



Quoting Alexinwa (Reply 3):
15 daily to LAX 10 SFO 8 OAK 8 SJC, etc. I thought the total was 74 daily SEA-CALI

Don't forget SMF, with 6 daily, that brings the total up to 80.


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13255 posts, RR: 62
Reply 12, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5545 times:
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Quoting Alexinwa (Thread starter):
AS has got to be thinking twice??? They can't do this for very long in an attempt to drive out VX/B6??



Quoting Phatfarmlines (Reply 5):
This was a poor strategic move by AS

 redflag 


Wholeheartedly disagree. The best strategic move AS could do is to avoid letting competitors gain a toehold in their backyard, so they're doing exactly what needs to be done.

Bottom line - it costs a lot more to win back lost customers than it does to keep them in the first place.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineCarfield From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1834 posts, RR: 9
Reply 13, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5530 times:

I think the "West Most" idea is not a bad one. AS has been running a very intense LAX to SEA schedule for a while, especially all the connections to Mexico, and north to Alaska. The "West Most" schedule simplifies things a bit and make the schedule hourly and easier for business traveller to remember the schedule. However, I have been on a few Saturday morning flights that were very empty. I had not seen so many empty F seats on an Alaska Airlines LAX to SEA flights for many years, even on a Saturday 10am flight. (7F on a 739)... I just thought it was after Spring Break april times... I have a couple more flights in late May and early June, and will report back on loading.

I think the current West Most schedule can continue on till after the summer season, and the loading is always strong in the summer, and somehow makes the operation still profitable. However, the "overcapacity" problem will really begin to surface after the busy summer/cruise season passes. How to fill up all these planes at those odd/non-peak hours at the quiet fall and winter season? Yes there will be folks heading to Mexico, but things generally turn quieter. I wonder can AS continue to sustain the West Most schedule without losing money?

However, with this latest round of "West Most" and increase on the SEA to SFO market on AS, I wonder if VX has actually hurt AS somewhat to prompt such an immediate reaction and more increase on this difficult economic environment. AS must be somewhat affected to warrant more flights to keep the competition away.

Carfield


User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3197 posts, RR: 10
Reply 14, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 5518 times:



Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 8):
The other problem again is that he has to find investors willing to match his money 3 to 1. SRB has deep pockets, but he better have a lot of friends in order to keep VX afloat. AS appears to be going for the jugular on the west coast. VX had just announced two new SFO-SEA frequencies and now AS responds with two of their own right away.

yes and no. With the ansett example, SRB had no Bankruptcy protection, or foreign investment restrictions to worry about. So yes, that will make it difficult.
But the no? There's other stuff SRB can do other then direct cash. He can, for example, purchase aircraft and lease them to VX at far below market rates. He can also loan money, though no doubt he won't be able to do one of those 'loans never repaid' type loans. He can also get VX to perform services for the company. For example, he can get VX to do Virgin Atlantic's ground handling, and award them rediculously high payments for it.

Obviuosly there is only so far each one of those type of measures can go. But in the current oil environment, how long can the others hold out? A lot of them have next to zero room to breath so it mightn't take much?

Ikramercia - how do u get oil at 50% of operating costs? I saw figures the other day (albiet non-us airlines) that put it at 34% for the last quarter. The profit margins aren't high enough to make up the difference... so either US airlines are using more fuel on average, or non-us airlines non-fuel costs are a lot higher then US airlines to make up that difference. Seems a little high to me... even at the current prices. How'd u come up with 50%?


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13255 posts, RR: 62
Reply 15, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 5448 times:
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Quoting Carfield (Reply 13):
with this latest round of "West Most" and increase on the SEA to SFO market on AS, I wonder if VX has actually hurt AS somewhat to prompt such an immediate reaction and more increase on this difficult economic environment.

While any dilution of yields hurts an airline, what hurts far worse is not taking a competitor seriously and allowing them to fly under your radar for years, trying to slowly siphon valued customers away here and there.

So you leverage your strengths - loyal FF base, award-winning Mileage Plan, unbeatable partnerships, superior frequency and connectivity and caring, professional employees - to make it way too costly for them to continue to do business in your backyard.

And with a little over $1BN in cash on-hand with a good balance sheet, AS will be able to hang in a firefight far longer than VX can.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineBrianDromey From Ireland, joined Dec 2006, 3901 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 5405 times:



Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 14):
Ikramercia - how do u get oil at 50% of operating costs? I saw figures the other day (albiet non-us airlines) that put it at 34% for the last quarter. The profit margins aren't high enough to make up the difference... so either US airlines are using more fuel on average, or non-us airlines non-fuel costs are a lot higher then US airlines to make up that difference. Seems a little high to me... even at the current prices. How'd u come up with 50%?

Given that oil is paid for in dollars the non-US airlines will be feeling the strain on high oil prices a lot less right now. One euro will get you at least $1.50. So if an EU airline found oil to be at 34% a us airline operating the same routes with the same a/c in the same configuration, etc should indeed find fuel to be roughly half the operating cost compared to an EU airline.
EU airlines are feeling the pinch a lot less, I think. Especially if their fleet is leased or loans are being paid for in dollars. Lucky them, we'll see how long it lasts.

Brian.



Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3197 posts, RR: 10
Reply 17, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 5368 times:



Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 16):
EU airlines are feeling the pinch a lot less, I think. Especially if their fleet is leased or loans are being paid for in dollars. Lucky them, we'll see how long it lasts.

Very good point and one that I'd forgotton to consider! Yes I can indeed see how that would work out now.


User currently offlineSxf24 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1250 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 5330 times:



Quoting Alexinwa (Thread starter):
As much as I would love to say this is a good idea......I can't!!!

It really isn't a big increase in capacity. I think the biggest increase any one route increased was two flights.

As mentioned above, this is really about marketing a leveled, consistent flight schedule.


User currently offlineTdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 19, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 5223 times:



Quoting Alexinwa (Thread starter):
With fuel being as such and that much capacity AS has got to be thinking twice??? They can't do this for very long in an attempt to drive out VX/B6??

What's their load factor and yield? They may be able to keep it up for quite some time. Every "West Most" (or the precursor flights) I've caught on AS has been full to the gills.

From SEA, it's really the best game in town for medium-haul to the west and central. WN can match fares, but not onboard service. Virgin can match fairs but what's the hook? Onboard service is better but you don't accumulate frequent flier miles on anything particularly useful and, at the ranges we're talking about, the IFE isn't that big of a deal.

Tom.


User currently offlineSearpqx From Netherlands, joined Jun 2000, 4343 posts, RR: 11
Reply 20, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 5120 times:



Quoting Carfield (Reply 13):
I have been on a few Saturday morning flights that were very empty.

Repeating the mantra that loads are not an absolute indicator of route profitability, Saturday loads are the worst possible example. As a businessman who flies the LAX & SFO routes during the week, I can count the number of times I've been able to get an upgrade on one fist - 0. However, on those occasions when i do head south on a Saturday morning, an upgrade is almost guaranteed.

Quoting Sxf24 (Reply 18):
It really isn't a big increase in capacity. I think the biggest increase any one route increased was two flights.

Bingo! I don't know the exact numbers, but there really wasn't a huge increase in capacity (the two flights added in response to VXs 2nd increase being the exception). AS is defending its core markets, it has no choice and its doing it fairly intelligently. AS has proven very adapt at juggling capacity, and they've also pulled out of markets where capacity has increased and they realize they don't have the critical mass to maintain a profitable share. Of course gas complicates matters, and only time will really tell, but I expect, while we might see a slight reduction come the end of the summer, this type of schedule is here to stay, at least as long as this level of competition is out there.



"The two most common elements in the universe are Hydrogen and stupidity"
User currently offlineHikesWithEyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 816 posts, RR: 7
Reply 21, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 4691 times:



Quoting Alexinwa (Thread starter):
With fuel being as such and that much capacity AS has got to be thinking twice??? They can't do this for very long in an attempt to drive out VX/B6??

Sure they can. I am confident that AS will make it as difficult at possible for VX to make money on those
routes. It would not surprise me to see VX redeploy aircraft on West/East routes after a year of losing money on
North/South where they compete with AS.



First, benzene in my Perrier, and now this!
User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 25
Reply 22, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 4525 times:



Quoting Phatfarmlines (Reply 5):
Another thorn towards AS is that Branson will have no problems offering VX "loans" to keep the operation running.

Isn't that illegal under the DOT ruling when they issued VX their certificate that Branson cannot have any influence whatsoever??



A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offlineEXAAUADL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4417 times:



Quoting JetJeanes (Reply 9):
By around the end of sept Many will fold in the U.S. and there will be a national flight reduction of at least 50 to 60 percent.

More like 15-20%...I dont see a 60% decline in capacity? Are you saying for instance that AA will park 300 aircraft??

Quoting Searpqx (Reply 20):
Repeating the mantra that loads are not an absolute indicator of route profitability, Saturday loads are the worst possible example.

Saturday consistenly has the lowest yields of the week. Your observation would be best for a Tue, when loads are usually low, but yields very high.


User currently offlineFlyPBA From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 431 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4386 times:

folks ... this is just a marketing program for Alaska ... they have been operating this level of service for some years now.

they are only promoting it and adding a few more flights ... but that's it.


25 Cschleic : That's exactly what I was going to ask. Have they actually increased frequencies? They've always had a lot in many of these markets. (Shifting some f
26 Robsawatsky : Providing a loan isn't influence. Influence would be holding shares or other securitized investments that give Branson a legal "say" in how the money
27 EIPremier : Well, what concerns me is that they have added the new SEA-OGG service this summer and also they are added two new SEA-SFO flights. Does AS really hav
28 Flywithken : Perhaps I am not 100% accurate on this, but have they truely increased substantially? I see this as purely a marketing scheme. They boast "131 daily n
29 AirframeAS : there are so many ways to define 'loan' but in this particular environment in the airline industry is considered as an influence, which would get VX
30 VS11 : Unfortunately, the industry is in this condition not because of Branson but because of poor managerial decisions so it is rarther insignificant what
31 AirframeAS : That isn't my point. Again, that isn't my point. It doesn't matter how much impact it will have on the U.S. airline industry. But foreign ownership i
32 FFlyerWorld : AS will be fine! They will enjoy the feed from International expansion from the New Delta in /out of SEA and can remain stand-alone as they are withou
33 AirframeAS : ......pending DOT/DOJ approval.
34 AlexInWa : Hate to say this but, I think more from the NEW DELTA will come, but I have a feeling that AS will be in CO colors by then. CO may not want to merge,
35 AirframeAS : Ain't gonna happen, you are living a pipedream. AS is a codeshare whore. This comes up more often than it should and it gets beat to death on these f
36 HNL-Jack : Won't happen. To merge CO and AS you would have to bring AS union contracts up to the CO levels, destroying the profit potential AS currently enjoys.
37 Ikramerica : I didn't make it up. I read the Q1 reports and PR, and that is what it is now in the USA, or it was with an average of $110 a barrel for Q1. Sucks bi
38 EA CO AS : CO's BOD has already voted to remain independent - meaning no taking on UA, AS, or anyone else for that matter. AS and NW/DL will likely continue to
39 Lufthansa : I was suggesting you did... I was just curious... and I figured out how it was so different. The rest of aren't suffering as big of an exchange rate
40 Watchandlearn : One year United is going to buy them...then it's supposedly American...then the rumor mill says it might be Southwest...Enough already! I've heard so
41 EA CO AS : That rumor has been around forever, although it never has been UA - it's always AA or NW, and every once in awhile someone tosses in WN for good meas
42 AlexInWa : Sorry that it seems that way! Actually it would be the saddest day of my life when it comes to airlines next to PanAm folding if AS ever went away. I
43 Nvaflyer : Based on Q1 2008 financials fuel costs for US carriers represent about 32% of all costs, though this varies significantly by carrier AS 32% UA 31% AA
44 Robsawatsky : When DOT approved VIRGIN America it didn't disallow loans from Virgin Group it just required the loan agreements be revised to eliminate provisions t
45 Watchandlearn : It's interesting that I haven't read any mention of fuel hedges regarding AS in this thread. It is my understanding that AS has the second-best fuel h
46 EA CO AS : Correct on both counts.
47 Lufthansa : And thats more in line with what i've seen overseas.
48 JetJeanes : good lord their loseing a billion a quarter now at 120 a barrell There has got to be less players in the the field and more planes will be parked. Tus
49 AirframeAS : As long as the AS board is around and keeps going, AS will be a stand-alone carrier. I am confident that AS will be fine, they are too valuable to be
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