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Michael O'Leary And RyanAtlantic  
User currently offlineBAfan From United Kingdom, joined May 2008, 189 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 19599 times:

There has long been rumours that Michael O'Leary of Ryanair will launch a new airline called RyanAtlantic, operating a fleet of 50 or so A350's/787's from European destinations to the US. Check out the links below for more information on this:

http://www.independent.ie/national-n...rline-for-flights-to-us-43198.html

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0412/ryanair.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RyanAtlantic

It was rumoured to probably start in 2009.


My points I would like to hear thoughts on are as follows:

1. There is no order for 50 or so A350's/787's at present, and there are significant delays to the 787 programme - surely this must present a challenge to the original plan?
2. The cost of fuel has risen so rapidly, wouldn't the idea face significant problems covering cost at todays fuel prices?

Does anyone else think that the low cost, long haul model that Mr O'Leary was suggesting is now unworkable?

Any ideas as to what he might do (sensible suggestion please) in order to make it work?

I just can't see it happening in todays environment.

51 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Reply 1, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 19529 times:

In my humble opinion that project will never ever take off.
Regardless of MOL agressively marketing Ryanair,he has been strangely quiet those last months about flying to Uncle Sam.The basics have changed ,petrol rising to more then insane levels,the US not really facilitating the passing of it's borders by the average tourist,traditional carriers offering good deals ,many Ryanair airports not really geared to handle 250+ seaters (runway-length,terminal facilities,parking..)
Furthermore there's not really any way to get decent aircraft on the market within the next 12-18 months.Should MOL order any A330's or Boeing 777's,he'd have to wait until 2011/2012 ...
It's hot air -nothing else.



Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlineREALDEAL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 19456 times:



Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 1):
In my humble opinion that project will never ever take off.
Regardless of MOL agressively marketing Ryanair,he has been strangely quiet those last months about flying to Uncle Sam.The basics have changed ,petrol rising to more then insane levels,the US not really facilitating the passing of it's borders by the average tourist,traditional carriers offering good deals ,many Ryanair airports not really geared to handle 250+ seaters (runway-length,terminal facilities,parking..)
Furthermore there's not really any way to get decent aircraft on the market within the next 12-18 months.Should MOL order any A330's or Boeing 777's,he'd have to wait until 2011/2012 ...
It's hot air -nothing else.

what a load of rubbish, of course it would work.

We are about to have a huge world recession & spending on travel will be reduced, so look out for some legacy failures, where the low cost operators will pick up traffic, as customers can no longer afford to fly legacies & if legacies try to come down to LCC type prices they will go broke even faster.

Boeing & Airbus will bend over backwards to get more orders from Ryanair & they will also be lots of aircraft delviery slots that won't be taken up or delayed, so in a year or 2, there will be new aircraft being parked, so don't see that as being a problem.

Fuel price will drop with the recession for maybe 5 years & then it will go crazy again, so the wrold needs to be looking at alternatives yesterday.


User currently offlineBabybus From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 19415 times:

I'm not sure a Ryanair style product would work on a longhaul flight. It's just too basic. Fares over the pond are already very low, so what exactly would be the attraction of his product.

However, Peoplexpress had a very basic product and that worked for a few years.


User currently offlineAAMDanny From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2008, 338 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 19154 times:



Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 1):
It's hot air -nothing else.

I agree. I dont see MOL proceeding with it... if he did... he would have to offer a different product than that of FR...

Quoting Babybus (Reply 3):
I'm not sure a Ryanair style product would work on a longhaul flight. It's just too basic

I dont see many americans wanting to fly USA-EU with the current FR product... especially when USA has got used to the idea of no-frill's flying as WN

On any flight over 5-6 hours I would expect some form of IFE, meal service, even if a Long Haul FR product required you to buy it in advanced it's something I would buy.

Quoting Babybus (Reply 3):
Fares over the pond are already very low

I agree, especially with even more competition on LHR-US flights (open skies)
- competition is getting strong and seat availability is being increased.


User currently offlineMaskeer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 18991 times:



Quoting BAfan (Thread starter):

Does anyone else think that the low cost, long haul model that Mr O'Leary was suggesting is now unworkable?



Quoting REALDEAL (Reply 2):
what a load of rubbish, of course it would work.

If the seating is as uncomfortable as on their European fleet, who would fly them? I mean, for 2 hours it's ok, but I would get blisters on my bu*t after 7 hours.

Plus, I don't know the demand composition to the US, but Ryanair makes a good deal of money out of recreational passengers. How's demand broken down b/w London or Paris or Frankfurt and the US? And before someone points out that Ryanair "created" much of that demand, one thing is to hop on a plane to spend the weekend in Spain, another is to fly to New York.

Anyhoo, they know their business, if they do it I guess they have a good chance of making it.


User currently offlineJoost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3149 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 18877 times:

I think there are chances. Especially with fuel costs rising, and difficulties for the airline industry, we might well see cancellations for tha 787, 330 and 350. O'Leary has often said that he will wait for the moment that Boeing and Airbus will be willing to offer aircraft for low prices - just like he carefully selected the moment to order the 737 fleet.

He has often indicated that the product for long-haul flights will be different from short-haul flights. He has also expressed that his potential airline will have a business class cabin that will be top-notch.

I expect the comfort in economy to be in par with long-haul charter airlines (Martinair, Corsair, etc.). Well, even KLM and AF are introducing 3-4-3 + 31" seating on the 777.

I also expect them to introduce many other income sources. For example, buy on board for the meals, pay to watch a movie on IFE, pay a fee for each bag, etc. I'll expect them to offer considerably lower base fares; and slightly lower fares when you will select all extra's.

That having said, I also expect traditional carriers to shift towards pay-for-what-you-get more and more. When oil prices continue to rise, expect many carriers to introduce baggage fees for TATL flights.

For flights between USA and the UK, USA and Paris and USA and Germany, there will be enough P2P demand. (Look at the flights AB and LH offer from DUS; Zoom from the UK, etc.)


User currently offlineCadet57 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 9085 posts, RR: 31
Reply 7, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 18855 times:



Quoting AAMDanny (Reply 4):
On any flight over 5-6 hours I would expect some form of IFE, meal service, even if a Long Haul FR product required you to buy it in advanced it's something I would buy.

Personally, If I could to europe for 300 bucks.I could care less about IFE, I could care less about it now. As for meals, its all about buy on board, and its not so hard to buy something at the terminal...



Doors open, right hand side, next stop is Springfield.
User currently offlinePe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 19097 posts, RR: 53
Reply 8, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 18803 times:



Quoting Joost (Reply 6):
He has also expressed that his potential airline will have a business class cabin



Quoting Joost (Reply 6):
O'Leary has often said that he will wait for the moment that Boeing and Airbus will be willing to offer aircraft for low prices

Yep.

Quoting Joost (Reply 6):
I also expect them to introduce many other income sources. For example, buy on board for the meals, pay to watch a movie on IFE, pay a fee for each bag, etc

Yep, just like D7.



"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
User currently offlineEmbajador3 From Spain, joined Aug 2006, 318 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 18762 times:



Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 8):
Yep, just like D7

Excuse me, what airline is D7???



Flying Together
User currently offlineSawtooth From Ireland, joined Jan 2007, 614 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 18746 times:

Why presume this will be the same Ryanair service? M O'Leary has said it would be a completly separate, stand-alone airline, probably offering premium product to subsidies low fares economy.

What Ryanair has shown is that a lot of people will choose a cheap but reliable no frills service over the the high fare all-in service. Some find flying from secondary airports less hassle, and they like the choice of not having to pay for food or baggage unless you need to. Not all of the cost cutting will be tolerated long-haul like seat pitch, but if they can combine the savings of the low cost model in the back and an innovative premium product up front and heavily discounted aircraft they could shake up the market.

Lets say someone booking a low cost €79 e/w fare DUB-ISP. They would probably pay for "extras" such as hold baggage €20+, food snacks in fligh €25 e/w, prioraty boarding €10, Optional IFE console €20, Internet access €10. Airport taxes and fees lower than usual due to smaller airports, off peak departures, say €50 e/w. So lots of extra revenue for the airline but the ticket still comes in under 300 return and cheaper than the rivals. Throw in a regular €10 fares off peak times to get the marketing going, and add the premium product revenue and it looks viable. Oil and aircraft cost are the big factors in getting this started.

[Edited 2008-05-21 08:06:05]

User currently offlinePe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 19097 posts, RR: 53
Reply 11, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 18643 times:



Quoting Embajador3 (Reply 9):
what airline is D7

Air Asia X.

Quoting Sawtooth (Reply 10):
M O'Leary has said it would be a completly separate, stand-alone airline

Yep.



"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
User currently offlineMayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 9960 posts, RR: 14
Reply 12, posted (5 years 11 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 18581 times:

I would imagine part of his plan would use the model of his current one. If that's so, does he land at the current U.S. gateways, JFK, EWR, etc. or at some other airport in the area? If so, that airport would have to have the infrastructure to handle int'l. flights. U.S. customs comes to mind, especially.

If he plans to land at established gateways in the U.S., his airline model goes out the window, right?



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineLegacy135 From Switzerland, joined May 2005, 1052 posts, RR: 27
Reply 13, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 18280 times:



Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 1):
In my humble opinion that project will never ever take off.
Regardless of MOL agressively marketing Ryanair,he has been strangely quiet those last months about flying to Uncle Sam.The basics have changed ,petrol rising to more then insane levels,the US not really facilitating the passing of it's borders by the average tourist,traditional carriers offering good deals ,many Ryanair airports not really geared to handle 250+ seaters (runway-length,terminal facilities,parking..)
Furthermore there's not really any way to get decent aircraft on the market within the next 12-18 months.Should MOL order any A330's or Boeing 777's,he'd have to wait until 2011/2012 ...
It's hot air -nothing else.

 checkmark 

Quoting REALDEAL (Reply 2):
what a load of rubbish, of course it would work.

I don't think so!

Cheers
Legacy135  Wink


User currently offlineLH4116 From Sweden, joined Aug 2007, 1709 posts, RR: 14
Reply 14, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 17937 times:

Could it might be possible to try this concept first by configuring a couple of 738s to international (less seats, more pitch, etc) and then fly them between STN and NYC, is that possible? We all know that DY will fly their 738 to DXB from Scandinavia that's an 8 hour flight so flying across the pond should be pretty easy for them.


SAS Plus is Business Class made faux!
User currently offlineCURLYHEADBOY From Italy, joined Feb 2005, 940 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 17566 times:



Quoting LH4116 (Reply 14):
Could it might be possible to try this concept first by configuring a couple of 738s to international (less seats, more pitch, etc) and then fly them between STN and NYC, is that possible? We all know that DY will fly their 738 to DXB from Scandinavia that's an 8 hour flight so flying across the pond should be pretty easy for them.

I think you need an ETOPS certified aircraft to cross the Atlantic on a twin jet, I don't think a "normal" (not BBJ) 738 can fly ETOPS...



If God had wanted men to fly he would have given them more money...
User currently offlineJbernie From Australia, joined Jan 2007, 880 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 17538 times:



Quoting AAMDanny (Reply 4):
On any flight over 5-6 hours I would expect some form of IFE, meal service, even if a Long Haul FR product required you to buy it in advanced it's something I would buy.

For the IFE portion, I would be interested to see the weight difference between seat back screens and providing USB & regular power adapters at each seat to encourage the passenger to bring their own. USB can be used to power a handheld audio/video device such as an ipod, or the power adaper for laptops. That being said, they may just go USB, people bringing laptops = weight.


User currently offlineCumulus From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2006, 1402 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 17399 times:



Quoting REALDEAL (Reply 2):
We are about to have a huge world recession

Is that not a bit of a sweeping comment?



What Goes Up Must Come Down, Hopefully In One Piece!
User currently offlineKennyK From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 482 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 17105 times:

Any chance they could turn STN into a European LCC Hub for long range services, you jump on a cheap Ryanair flight from almost anywhere in Europe to STN and then onto a RyanAtlantic flight to a wide range of US/Canadian/Mexican cities. Could work using medium widebody twins, so you don't need a third flight when you get stateside to get to your final destination!!!

User currently offlineEXTspotter From United Kingdom, joined May 2007, 992 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 17089 times:

It is a sweeping comment, however in this current financial climate no-one would be suprised if it didn't happen. Even if the credit crunch ends tommorrow, people will be holding their money for a long time to make sure their fingers don't get burned.


AF BE BY FR MV PD SZ U2 VZ DHC6, 8-3/4Q, 732/8, 763ER, A319, A380
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24075 posts, RR: 22
Reply 20, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 17006 times:



Quoting Babybus (Reply 3):
However, Peoplexpress had a very basic product and that worked for a few years.

But it wasn't sustainable in the longer term. Laker's Skytrain, probably the closest counterpart to the Ryanair type of service on longhaul routes, also didn't last long, especially when all the major carriers matched their fares but with all the usual inflight service amenities.


User currently offlineTonymctigue From Ireland, joined Feb 2006, 1933 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 16963 times:
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Quoting Sawtooth (Reply 10):
Why presume this will be the same Ryanair service? M O'Leary has said it would be a completly separate, stand-alone airline, probably offering premium product to subsidies low fares economy.

Yes & I believe MO'L himself has stated that the service would be a new buisness model, not the same one used by the current FR operation. Now, I agree that at this late stage, 2009 seems a bit ambitious but we are heading into a slump in the aviation buisness & FR have used this to their advantage in the past. They used the post 9/11 slump to get a whole bunch of 738's for practically nothing.

Quoting Mayor (Reply 12):
I would imagine part of his plan would use the model of his current one. If that's so, does he land at the current U.S. gateways, JFK, EWR, etc. or at some other airport in the area? If so, that airport would have to have the infrastructure to handle int'l. flights. U.S. customs comes to mind, especially.

I could see the so called RyanAtlantic routing their flights via DUB or SNN, taking of the full customs preclearance facilities when they are up & running. Currently, both DUB & SNN have immigration preclearance facilities but not customs preclearance facilities, However, this is set to change. SNN already has the necessary funds & planning permission to construct the new facility but the project has been delayed until the necessary legislation has been passed to allow the facility to operate. DUB is getting its new terminal, which I'm sure has been designed to include this facility. So, routing flights through either of these airport, both of which currently host large FR operations, would eliminate the need for customs & immigration facilities upon arrival in the US as the flights would be treated the same as US domestic flights. This is one way of solving one of the problems of using small regional US airports for a TA operation.



Next Flights: 18/04/14 QF1011 MEL-HBA; 21/04/14 JQ712 HBA-MEL
User currently offlineMayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 9960 posts, RR: 14
Reply 22, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 16946 times:



Quoting Tonymctigue (Reply 21):
Quoting Mayor (Reply 12):
I would imagine part of his plan would use the model of his current one. If that's so, does he land at the current U.S. gateways, JFK, EWR, etc. or at some other airport in the area? If so, that airport would have to have the infrastructure to handle int'l. flights. U.S. customs comes to mind, especially.

I could see the so called RyanAtlantic routing their flights via DUB or SNN, taking of the full customs preclearance facilities when they are up & running. Currently, both DUB & SNN have immigration preclearance facilities but not customs preclearance facilities, However, this is set to change. SNN already has the necessary funds & planning permission to construct the new facility but the project has been delayed until the necessary legislation has been passed to allow the facility to operate. DUB is getting its new terminal, which I'm sure has been designed to include this facility. So, routing flights through either of these airport, both of which currently host large FR operations, would eliminate the need for customs & immigration facilities upon arrival in the US as the flights would be treated the same as US domestic flights. This is one way of solving one of the problems of using small regional US airports for a TA operation.

What about on the return leg? Also, now many regional airports are set up for TA flights?



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 16864 times:



Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 20):
Laker's Skytrain, probably the closest counterpart to the Ryanair type of service on longhaul routes, also didn't last long, especially when all the major carriers matched their fares but with all the usual inflight service amenities.

Yes, but slightly different circumstances to 20 odd years ago.....I personally don't believe the deliberate collusion and price-fixing by those carriers which was established went on for the sole purpose of putting Laker out of business would be tolerated today.

Quoting Mayor (Reply 12):
I would imagine part of his plan would use the model of his current one

He has repeatedly said it would not be the same.

Quoting Mayor (Reply 12):
If he plans to land at established gateways in the U.S., his airline model goes out the window, right?

Why?


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24075 posts, RR: 22
Reply 24, posted (5 years 11 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 16773 times:



Quoting AirNZ (Reply 23):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 20):
Laker's Skytrain, probably the closest counterpart to the Ryanair type of service on longhaul routes, also didn't last long, especially when all the major carriers matched their fares but with all the usual inflight service amenities.

Yes, but slightly different circumstances to 20 odd years ago.....I personally don't believe the deliberate collusion and price-fixing by those carriers which was established went on for the sole purpose of putting Laker out of business would be tolerated today.

With Open Skies and no need for governments to approve fares now, they don't have to collude and risk prison sentences as they did then. If one major carrier matched a LCC carriers fares today, they all would. It would of course depend how much capacity the newcomer offered.


25 Cadet57 : No, but many local communities would kill for this sort of service and would offer the $ to set it up. Case in point, my town is actively looking for
26 Cumulus : And people are going to stop flying completely? Not everyone flies for pleasure, but as a necessity and will do irrespective of any indicative financ
27 Tonymctigue : What about the return leg? Most European airports currently in the FR network have customs & immigration facilities. BA are already talking of operat
28 Lono : Back then the major carriers could afford to play that game.... now they can't.... they are relying on international travel for their survival.... th
29 Mayor : That's what I was referring to, also. The return leg from the U.S. to Europe.
30 ACdreamliner : so you work for the FT do you? i am in the finance industry, and we think this current 'market downturn' will last around anohter 8 months. so please
31 Gemuser : Of course it can! Now whether RyanAir's aircraft are equipped and maintained for it is another question, but FJ fly both the B73G & B738 over some ve
32 AirNZ : Which is what I said......different circumstances in relation to a poster giving the likes of Laker Airways as an example of being unsuccessful. It w
33 IronDuke08 : All of CO's 737-800s and I think all of their 700s and 900s are ETOPS rated. Heck, a few months ago I flew nothing but 737-800s from Hawaii to Hong K
34 COFanNYC : The US doesn't have formal exit immigration. International flights depart from domestic terminals on a daily basis. I don't really see too much of a
35 ConcordeBoy : "normal" 738s have been flying ETOPS routings for years
36 BCAL : Laker's problem was not due to the fact that a low-cost module could not work but because the airline was under capitalised and, seizing this window
37 Point8six : PeoplExpress lasted for just under 4 years on Trans Atlantic routes, - insufficient investment for the size. Oasis lasted under 2 years on Europe-Asia
38 Thegeek : As others have mentioned, the 738 IS ETOPS. But I will add, that we regularly have 737 classics crossing the Tasman Sea (QF flying BNE-CHC and BNE-AK
39 REALDEAL : doubt if Ryanair long haul would be same as short haul. Look at difference between DJ & VA.
40 CURLYHEADBOY : Gemuser, To you and the other guys that have pointed out my statement was wrong: Thank you, I stand corrected
41 CHRISBA777ER : Airline Analyst here, agreeing with you. Wait and see people. The "recession" is people actually wanting one so they can sell papers telling everyone
42 Pe@rson : According to your profile you're between 16 and 20 and are a university student.
43 Post contains links JWMD123 : MO'L has stated today that he would prefer to see oil stay up around the $125 level for the time being as this will see the cash poor airlines go und
44 Post contains links Visityyj : http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...general_aviation/read.main/3907004
45 LTBEWR : I think he may want to wait until later this year before committing. I am quite sure he could get used 777's or the like from other airlines (like Ali
46 Cadet57 : You realize that thread is, well, locked, right?
47 Baexecutive : Astraus and flyglobespan both operate the 738 accross the pond.
48 Visityyj : Yes I do. Probably because there was nothing new then. Or now.
49 Humberside : AEU dont operate -800's. I assume you mean their B737-700's that operated to Deer Lake in the past
50 BOStonsox : PVD is a virtual shoo-in. It will have rail to Boston, intercity bus service, and it has an FIS (SATA serves it seasonally). BWI would be the airport
51 MKE22 : WOOHOOO!!!! I saw MKE on the list as Chicago, and not GYY! I don't care if it is wikipedia, and this airline may not happen, but MKE has a shot! YES!
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