Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Could Rolls-Royce Ever Be Number 1?  
User currently offlineTimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1339 posts, RR: 1
Posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 6132 times:

I know that, at the moment, GE are the biggest manufacturer of commercial aircraft engines in the world. I don't know how large the backlog of orders is for GE or RR, but as RR have taken the lions share of orders for the A380, a significant percentage of 787 orders and (for the moment) have exclusivity on the A350, could there ever be a day down the line when RR overtakes GE as the world's largest supplier of commercial aircraft engines?

16 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineCol From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2123 posts, RR: 22
Reply 1, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 6127 times:

I think you will find that where they compete they are number one. Obviously the sole supplier agreement with Boeing/GE helps GE hold onto number one. Depends how you look at it. The sad thing is PW, what happend, lead engine on the 330 and 777!!!

User currently onlineGCT64 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2007, 1414 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 6055 times:

I would have thought that the CFM56's exclusivity on the B737 slews the figures in GE's (and SAFRAN's) favour. I doubt GE exclusivity on B777 variants affects the figures anywhere near as much.


Flown in: A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A388,BA11,BU31,B190, B461,B462,(..51 types..),VC10,WESX
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 989 posts, RR: 51
Reply 3, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5990 times:

It's possible, but barring GE getting shut-out of the 737RS or A320 replacement, I don't think it will happen soon.

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 2):
I doubt GE exclusivity on B777 variants affects the figures anywhere near as much.

Depends on how long the 777 keeps selling, really. The exclusivity contract for the 777LR is what pushed the Ge90 ahead of the Trent 800s, no doubt about it.

And for what it's worth, the exclusivity contract GE signed for the 747-8 has translated into more engines orders than what Rolls Royce has sold on the A380. As of now, Rolls Royce has won orders for 94 A380 orders versus 105 747-8 orders which default to GE. And since GE has a 50% share in the ~45% market share won by the GP7200, I think it's safe to say GE is doing just fine in the future VLA market.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6941 posts, RR: 63
Reply 4, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5955 times:

OK, here we go...  Wink

(Where do we start?)

There was a time when PW was untouchable. They had the 737, 727 and DC-9/MD-80 (and most of the 707 and DC-8) all to themselves and they powered 90+% of the world's narrowbodies. GE was nowhere and RR had the 1-11 and Trident and VC-10 and F.28 and such programmes that were 'OK' but which were not in the same league.

Then came the 747, A300, DC-10 and Tristar. RR got one (the least valuable as it turned out), PW got the 747 (though not for ever) and the CF6 was launched on the A300 and DC-10 (although its origins can be traced back to the C-5 Galaxy).

The CF6 went on to power the 767, 747, MD-11 and A330 and in most cases took the largest market share.

Enter the CFM56. This will go down in history as THE narrowbody engine of choice and it also found successful (in terms of ROI) applications on the 707, DC-8 and A340.

The considerable success of the CF34 merely cemented GE's dominant position.

The GE90 was not initially a success on the 777 but GE bought their way (with, admittedly, a stunningly good engine) to dominance.

Now the GEnx is the preferred engine on the 787.

PW?

Still ahead on 747 sales (overall) but way behind GE in recent years. Behind GE on the A300/A310, DC-10, MD-11 and 767. Just clinging on to second place on the A330 and a poor third on the 777. Not on the 787 or A350. Dead in the water as far as widebody sales go these days. A one third share on IAE engines on the A320 family and 50% of the EA GP7200. Certainly the weakest of the big three on regional jets.

RR?

A small (but probably profitable) share of the 747 market, 100% of the TriStar (=750 engines), nothing on the A300, DC-10, MD-11 and a miserable share of 767 sales. Some useful sales on the F.70/F.100. But, 50% of A330 sales, marginally the largest shares of 777 sales (where they were allowed to compete), all of the small A345/A346 market, the greater share of the A380 (to date), 40% of the 787 and 100% of the A350. Healthy regional jet sales (though on models that are past their best.)

The future?

PW have the GP7200 and IAE 2500 and a trickle of top-up sales for the PW4000. They are in low single digits when in comes to the overall market share.

GE have robust sales of GE90s but that can't last indefinitely. The CFM56 is dead on the A340 but still healthy on the 737 and A320. The CF6 is in third place on the A330 and is trickling along on the 767. The GEnx has exclusivity on the 747-8 but that looks like a modest market. The GEnx is currently ahead on the 787 but in 2007 RR matched GE in terms of 787 sales. The CF34 is still doing well.

RR can forget about future T800 sales (beyond a tiny number of top-up orders) but the T700 is now established as the engine of choice on the A330. The T900 has won three times as many customers as the PW/GE GP7200. The T1000 has 40% of the 787 and is gaining on GE. The T500 cannot expect any more orders to speak of. The TXWB has de facto exclusivity on the A350. RR have 30% of the IAE V2500.

Ten years from now? Dwindling sales of the A330 (where RR are on top) and the 777 (GE ahead) but healthy sales of the 787 (GE & RR competing) and A350 (RR exclusivity?) and A380 (?) (where RR might still have the lead) + (let's say) parity in the narrowbody market.

RR @ No.1? Doesn't seem too far-fetched!


User currently offlineTimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1339 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 5912 times:

I knew I could rely on PM for a thorough and comprehensive over-view of the engine market! I do hope RR continues to do well, and overhauls GE, but if PM's round-up tells us anything, it's that current position of manufacturers and aircraft tells us little about what the future holds. However, with the A350/A380 combo, and a healthy share of the 787, I think that RR cheerleaders deserve to be feeling pretty happy about the future.

User currently offlineCol From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2123 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 5844 times:

Nice job PM, good detailed analysis.

User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 5823 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 4):
(Where do we start?)

Great summary. Small question.

What is the potential effect of the three spool design becoming weight effective at lower thrusts as has been suggested by Lightsaber. If RR on its own were competitive in the ten tonne class that might shake things up a bit more. How it could finesse that without wrecking IAE I have no idea.


User currently offlineMD-90 From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 8508 posts, RR: 12
Reply 8, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 5797 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 4):
PW?

PW does have a good presence in the bizjet market and pretty much owns the turboprop market.


User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 10
Reply 9, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 5717 times:

Is there a proper designation for the Trent XWB yet?


A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlineFruitbat From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2006, 551 posts, RR: 6
Reply 10, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 5585 times:



Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 9):
Is there a proper designation for the Trent XWB yet?

Yes, it's called the Trent XWB. I'd be, erm, surprised if it changed now, given the number of sales. I'm not sure, but I suspect the coincidental naming of the a/c and the engine may be what they call a "marketing ploy".....  Wink

Quoting PM (Reply 4):
Dead in the water as far as widebody sales go these days.

And that, from an engine point of view, gives rise to some of the most interesting questions of the lot. Have P&W burnt their bridges? Have they decided that large (40k +) big fans are simply too expensive to do by themselves? If so, why haven't RR and GE decided the same thing? Or are we in a "last man standing gets it all" situation? What are P&W spending their cash on (Corp & Regional apps and GTF spring to mind)... Are P&W repositioning themselves for the 200 seat market & below? How will GE and RR respond to the large engine duopoly that they may find themselves in (think Y3 / 777 replacement / next generation 400 seater type thing) ? Do the other two chase the P&W GTF with conventional engine architecture for the next 5 years, or spend their R&D time and resource on the next generation architcture and think 10-15 years ahead? And, (with apologies to those still in denial) the importance and relevance of being seen to be environmentally friendly will also have a massive impact - with oil at $135+ a number of carriers will be out of business quickly; those that survive will demand step changes in fuel burn - have P&W positioned themselves ahead of the other two?

Endless speculation ahead; but remember, those who really know on A.Net ain't saying a thing - losing your job in a credit crunch isn't a good place to be........



Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals ... except the weasel.
User currently offlineGEnxPower From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 121 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4356 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 4):
Ten years from now? Dwindling sales of the A330 (where RR are on top) and the 777 (GE ahead) but healthy sales of the 787 (GE & RR competing) and A350 (RR exclusivity?) and A380 (?) (where RR might still have the lead) + (let's say) parity in the narrowbody market.

RR @ No.1? Doesn't seem too far-fetched!

Good Summary, PM.

Anyways, nothing is far fetched and nothing is impossible. These 2 great companies will compete neck to neck trying to outperform/outsell/outbid one another. Great talented people on both sides, and the game is too close to call right now. I still feel GE has the advantage but RR is not far behind. There could be a few lead changes in the near future, but I don't see any one company run away with it.

The problem with wide body sales is that, in terms of being "the biggest manufacturer of jet engines", I believe they count individual engines that are in service. Since wide bodies are sold in much lower airframe numbers than narrow bodies, the A380 + A350 engine numbers cannot match the B737, A320 engine numbers or the next narrow body replacement.

The race will be a little clearer when both Airbus and Boeing start selling their narrow body replacement airframes and PW, RR, GE announce their engine offering. So if GTF really takes off, even PW could be back in the game, just based on the sheer number of narrow bodies expected to be ordered. Watch out! The game's afoot! GE is in the lead but it could be anyone's game.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6941 posts, RR: 63
Reply 12, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4340 times:



Quoting GEnxPower (Reply 11):
There could be a few lead changes in the near future, but I don't see any one company run away with it.

Agreed. There are parallels with the Airbus and Boeing duopoly. This seems to be a race where there can never be a final 'winner'. (I certainly hope not!)

Quoting GEnxPower (Reply 11):
Since wide bodies are sold in much lower airframe numbers than narrow bodies, the A380 + A350 engine numbers cannot match the B737, A320 engine numbers or the next narrow body replacement.

True but I wonder how it works out in terms of $$$. Big engines cost a lot more and, I suppose, generate more income over the years.

There's no arguing that GE is ahead. The CF6 has been the best of the big fans for very many years and the GE90 (by fair means or foul!) has claimed the 777 programme as its own. Sales of the GEnx on the 747 will never set records but they will be a useful additional source of revenue. GE is ahead on the 787 (though I wouldn't bet on them staying there forever). The CF34 is a winner and the CFM56 is a legend.

But RR have some pretty strong cards to play too and at least one reading of the future might see them in the better position come, say, 2015.

In a sense, GE have more to lose than RR. GE are No.1 now. From that position there's only one way to go!  Wink


User currently offlineGreasemonkey From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 67 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 4156 times:

GE has almost always outpaced RR on new engine technologies. During several "joint" projects that the two were part of, RR basically used the opportunity to gain valuable insight into GE's R&D and quality control methods. Regarding PW, their gear-turbofan technology is now being given a second look with the huge increase in the price of Jet-A.


It's usually a good idea to know what all the buttons do...before you push them.
User currently offlineTrent900 From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 533 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 3765 times:



Quoting Timboflier215 (Thread starter):
PW?

Still ahead on 747 sales (overall) but way behind GE in recent years. Behind GE on the A300/A310, DC-10, MD-11 and 767. Just clinging on to second place on the A330 and a poor third on the 777. Not on the 787 or A350. Dead in the water as far as widebody sales go these days. A one third share on IAE engines on the A320 family and 50% of the EA GP7200. Certainly the weakest of the big three on regional jets.

RR?

A small (but probably profitable) share of the 747 market, 100% of the TriStar (=750 engines), nothing on the A300, DC-10, MD-11 and a miserable share of 767 sales. Some useful sales on the F.70/F.100. But, 50% of A330 sales, marginally the largest shares of 777 sales (where they were allowed to compete), all of the small A345/A346 market, the greater share of the A380 (to date), 40% of the 787 and 100% of the A350. Healthy regional jet sales (though on models that are past their best.)

I'm a bit suprised the good 'ol 757 hasn't been mentioned at all. Has anyone got any % numbers for engine choice on this aircraft? I'm just wondering because nearly all the 75's I've seen have RR.

D.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6941 posts, RR: 63
Reply 15, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 3649 times:



Quoting Trent900 (Reply 14):
I'm a bit suprised the good 'ol 757 hasn't been mentioned at all.

Oops. Forgot all about that!

Quoting Trent900 (Reply 14):
Has anyone got any % numbers for engine choice on this aircraft? I'm just wondering because nearly all the 75's I've seen have RR.

1,049 built of which 59% had RR and 41% had PW. GE, obviously, didn't build any engines for the 757. (Although they did sell a few very early on... )

It can be argued that it was the RB211-535 on the 757 which kept RR in the game until the Trent series was launched.


User currently offlineFlipdewaf From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2006, 1577 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 5 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 3281 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

I was told by a gentleman at RR (don't know if this is true mind) that the Olympus for the TSR2 was developed into the RB199 for the tornado which was then found to work extremely well at low speed and low level and so was developed into the RB211 series. This would suggest that there was a direct lineage between the Olympus and the Trent 1000. Does this sound plausible? the bloke at RR I chatted to was exactly that, a bloke! so I'm not sure If he had the facts straight.

Fred


Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Could There Ever Be A 777-400? posted Sun Apr 2 2006 19:51:33 by Siromega
AN-225 Mryia - Could There Ever Be A Fleet? posted Sat Apr 24 2004 21:04:57 by PanAm747
Could HNL Ever Be A Major Hub? posted Thu Sep 28 2000 22:15:42 by Ishky15
Egyptair Selects Rolls-Royce Trent 700 For A330 posted Tue Mar 25 2008 12:04:53 by MSYYZ
Could The A340-500 Be A Good Fit For NWA? posted Wed Mar 19 2008 21:47:36 by Jetjack74
Will There Ever Be A World Airline? posted Tue Feb 19 2008 19:00:26 by Aruba
Singapore Airlines Chooses Rolls Royce For 9 A380s posted Fri Feb 15 2008 04:15:13 by Singapore_Air
Could The Y1 Offering Be A New Sonic Cruiser posted Tue Jan 8 2008 21:28:31 by CygnusChicago
Will BDR Ever Be A Commercial Airport Again? posted Sun Jan 6 2008 17:26:34 by Aruba
Rolls-Royce To Set Up Test Center In Germany posted Mon Dec 3 2007 05:26:10 by Flying-Tiger