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AA Capacity Cuts..return Of The Domestic Widebody?  
User currently offlineFlyAA757 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1014 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 10628 times:

Well with fuel prices where they are, and AA's announced intention to cut MD80's, will we see a return of widebodies in some major markets. Spread some fixed costs over more seats?

Interestingly, the first round of capacity cuts involve 767's...ORD-EZE takes 2 x 763, and HNL requires 1. In addition, there are 2 763's currently parked at AFW. That's 5 aircraft that will need to be utilized. Now some have speculated that these are to free up 777's for PEK, but honestly, the 777's are pretty underutilized as well. Thus, I am speculating that we will see a return of some 767's to more domestic markets.

seating assumptions:
M80:136
752: 188
763: 225
738: 148

Some good possibilities:

ORD-LAX NOW: 4 M83, 5 757, 1 763 = TOTAL FREQ 10/DAY (1709 SEATS)
OPTION: 2 M83, 2 763, 5 757 = TOTAL FREQ 9/DAY(1662 SEATS)
- EASY - no real loss of flexibility for the biz traveler if scheduled properly(just loose 1 freq), and drop 47(3%) giveaway fare seats.


ORD-MIA NOW: 8 757, 1 763 = TOTAL FREQ 9/DAY(1729 SEATS)
OPTION: 4 757, 4 763 = TOTAL FREQ 8/DAY(1652 SEATS)
- AGAIN, EASY - No one needs an extra frequency in this market...a single spare 763 can rack up 4 segments in a day. and drop 77(4.4%) giveaway fare seats.

DFW-LAX NOW: 3 757, 5 738, 7 M80, 1 763 = 16/DAY(2481 SEATS). Are 16 frequencies/day really necessary in any market? Come on.
OPTION: 4 757, 5 738, 1 M80, 3 763 = 13/DAY( 2303 SEATS).
13 frequencies is still ample for the biz traveler and connections. Loss of 178 seats(basically a single 757), but cut 3 frequencies. Think of the cost of crew, insurance, FUEL, mx etc. for 3 MD80 flights r/t daily DFW-LAX.

Etc, etc. other good options IMHO are DFW-LGA/BOS/DCA/MCO/FLL(Why on earth does AA fly MD80's into MCO???), MIA-LGA/BOS

Thoughts? MAH?

41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAA717driver From United States of America, joined Feb 2002, 1566 posts, RR: 13
Reply 1, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 10624 times:

When we taxied out of MIA on Monday, there were 4 777's parked at the mx base. Don't know why.

We see 767's on domestic every so often. I don't know about regular schedules though. Int'l is still where the hard currency is at. TC



FL450, M.85
User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5604 posts, RR: 12
Reply 2, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 10590 times:

The SAN-JFK flight will be downgraded from its summer 763 to its fall/winter 757 (subject, of course, to outright cancellation.) There's one more you can reallocate...

bb


User currently offlineHPAEAA From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1026 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 10407 times:

Honestly, I believe the available widebodies will be allocated to INTL, in the statement from AMR, the projected a substantial decrease in domestic ASMs, while still growing INTL ASMs... to me that means that those over served markets like the ones that you mentioned, they will simply see reduced frequency...


Why do I fly???
User currently offlineHPAEAA From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1026 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 10359 times:

Dbl posted due to an Inet error, please delete this post.

[Edited 2008-05-27 19:34:42]


Why do I fly???
User currently offlineDeltaflyertoo From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 1664 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 10336 times:

FLYAA757,

I love your thinking-and-it makes total sense. But, I get the feeling what you suggest won't take effect. Yes the airlines know they have to cut capacity and efficiencies...but they drag their feet at doing this. When AA first announced the bag charge and cuts it said markets like AUS to SNA would be cut..BFD. They really need to look at your analysis and do that. Sixteen Frequencies on DFW-LAX? My god, I had no clue. In your new figures you bring it down some, even going down to 8 (a 50% cut) would be more than enough. Those 767-200 flights to JFK from LAX are often lightly loaded as well. They could probably cut some of those and even, gasp, shall I say it, place a 777 in.

A lot of the EAGLE flying is going to have to go too. They rely HEAVILY on Eagle for frequency out of DFW. EAGLE flies out of their hubs to so many businesses centers that back in the day easily supported 727/MD80/F100 service, cities like CLE, IND, PIT, MKE, CVG, etc. Me thinks they should restore MD80s on these routes, with like 3 or 4 flights a day only-or maybe 3 or 4 big banks at DFW/ORD a day only and at strategic times for the business traveler. That is how it was in the 80s before the airlines jumped on the USA culture of having to have everything bigger, in abundance, NOW and CHEAP. That is how we got into this mess in the first place.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21590 posts, RR: 59
Reply 6, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 10326 times:



Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
Why on earth does AA fly MD80's into MCO???

Because they have 350 of them, that's why.

Now, maybe you rotate 757s into MCO in place of the MD80s flights, and rotate 763s onto LAX-MIA in place of the 757s, but that's a minor tweak.

I'd personally love to see the MD80 banished from LAX as a start.  Smile



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8515 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 10299 times:
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Quoting AA717driver (Reply 1):
When we taxied out of MIA on Monday, there were 4 777's parked at the mx base. Don't know why.

Those 777 are taking their midday naps between very profitable flights to Buenos Aires & Sao Paulo. Some times they inter chabge with the 777 from LHR.


User currently offlineTAN FLYR From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1920 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 10175 times:

Fly AA757,

I also share your thinking and have stated so numerous times on this forum over the years. Finally it apeears that in some form or another it will take place. I remember when it was only 6 or so DC-10's a day from ORD-LAX. The max amount of time between any of the flights was about 2.5 hours.

I would hope that some of the scheduling folks use the same logic as you. It also might open up more cargo revenue opportunites have 767's back on more routes.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23308 posts, RR: 20
Reply 9, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 10151 times:



Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
- EASY - no real loss of flexibility for the biz traveler if scheduled properly(just loose 1 freq), and drop 47(3%) giveaway fare seats.

I doubt it's a coincidence that UA also has 10 frequencies on ORD-LAX... perhaps the route planners at AA and UA know something about business traveler behavior that we don't.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineFlynavy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 10093 times:

I wasn't aware the domestic widebody had ever left the stage...  duck 

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User currently offlineMoMan From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9817 times:



Quoting AA717driver (Reply 1):
When we taxied out of MIA on Monday, there were 4 777's parked at the mx base. Don't know why.

Last week there were 4 A300 and 3 777 at the MX base near the A terminal in MIA. I was surprised to see that many idle aircraft.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
Because they have 350 of them, that's why.

299, soon to be 250. The MD80 is the backbone of the American fleet and why it's used at most major airports except MIA.



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21590 posts, RR: 59
Reply 12, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9750 times:

Last time I checked they had 336. 299 in service and 37 parked. That doesn't change anything, as the reason they fly the MD80s to MCO is because they have 350 (336) of them and have to send them everywhere, no matter if it's the best aircraft or not.

Now, checking the 2007 annual report:

And it looks as if only 8 SAAB leases are due this year. The rest are owned and will just be parked. Though there may be liens against the aircraft to a point that they are handed over to the lien holders or scrapped and paid off.

The A306 fleet starts to retire this year, with 3 leases expiring 2008, 3 in 2009, and 8 in each of 2010 and 2011. They own 10. So they can cut capacity there by 13 planes this year by selling 10 A306s for freighter conversion.

What's really interesting is that come 2010, they will start losing non-parked 762ERs unless they re-lease them or buy them. I know they are far from efficient, but they make good use of them on transcons (though right now, I do wonder if they are losing money on some of those flights).



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineCALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2729 posts, RR: 9
Reply 13, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9625 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
'd personally love to see the MD80 banished from LAX as a start.

How about SAN, SJC and BUR, all noise impacted airports. AA has been screaming MD80's out of these airports for years. Does AA need nearly hourly service with 9 RT MD80s SAN-DFW? SAN has 14 MD80s, 2 757s and one 763. Same at SJC - 12 of 13 flights in MD80. BUR- all 4 DFW flights MD80.

If AA is grounding something like 35 MD80s, getting more 738s and probably having other aircraft available, please start removing MD80s at SAN, BUR and SJC.


User currently offlineTSS From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 3070 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (6 years 7 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9621 times:

Didn't I read somewhere on this website that there were some oddball non-ER 762s or 763s soon to be available used, either from expired leases or airline bankruptcies? I can't for the life of me recall who these aircraft belonged to, but would it make sense for AA to snatch these up (if the price is right) and use them to reduce DFW-LAX frequencies thereby freeing up ER aircraft for international duty?


Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21590 posts, RR: 59
Reply 15, posted (6 years 7 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 9527 times:



Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 13):
How about SAN, SJC and BUR, all noise impacted airports.

Please. Just get the MD80 off the 3.5 hour "half-con" routes. 757s and 738s are fine replacements. Well, 738 is. 757 is old, but on a 3 hour route, it's fine. And they both have IFE.

Funny though, I have never, ever seen an AA MD80 on approach to BUR in three years of living under the path. I've seen them screaming off when going to Fry's. Man are they load. But on approach, I've never seen them. See the B6 and WN and AS birds all the time, and FedEx and UPS, but never the AA birds.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineSevenHeavy From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 1158 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (6 years 7 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 9498 times:



Quoting FlyAA757 (Thread starter):
Interestingly, the first round of capacity cuts involve 767's...ORD-EZE takes 2 x 763, and HNL requires 1. In addition, there are 2 763's currently parked at AFW. That's 5 aircraft that will need to be utilized. Now some have speculated that these are to free up 777's for PEK, but honestly, the 777's are pretty underutilized as well. Thus, I am speculating that we will see a return of some 767's to more domestic markets.

Firstly, I don't believe the B777 fleet is underutilised when compared to other airlines. The reason ORD-EZE/HNL is getting the chop is to free up B763 which in turn will free up B777 to operate to PEK.

Not to say that the B763 (or any other widebody) can't be profitable flying domestically but the odds are that most of the time they will better serve the airline on international routes. Sure, there are some domestice flights that will continue to be served by B763 but I doubt there will be any major additional flying - at least until B787's start arriving (when, not if)

My guess is that at the moment AA will fly any of its fleet wherever it can make the most money out of them. Everything is under scrutiny and marginal routes will get the axe in favour of better opportunities elsewhere. At the moment this favours european and particularly asian routes and probably will for the foreseeable future.

Regards



So long 701, it was nice knowing you.
User currently offlineDavescj From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 2307 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (6 years 7 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 9407 times:



Quoting Deltaflyertoo (Reply 5):
When AA first announced the bag charge and cuts it said markets like AUS to SNA would be cut

Perhaps also least profitable? Cheaper to force a connection, filling up a plane, and grounding this one?

Quoting Deltaflyertoo (Reply 5):
In your new figures you bring it down some, even going down to 8 (a 50% cut) would be more than enough.

How many are contract seats that are money makers? If they are selling a good number of F seats, might be worth keeping.

Quoting Deltaflyertoo (Reply 5):
Those 767-200 flights to JFK from LAX are often lightly loaded as well.

See above.

Quoting Deltaflyertoo (Reply 5):
A lot of the EAGLE flying is going to have to go too.

Unless cheaper to pay Eagle to do it.

Another option -- remove seats.....and extend leg room by that fact. Yeah, that''ll happen.

Another option -- cancel routes/frequency. But, what rules are in place at LAX and JFK dealing with gate usage? Would they loose the gate if they don't have a frequent enough usage (like at ORD)? The frequency may also be related to NOT losing a gate in the future.

Remember also, AA is looking to get 737s to replace the Mad Dogs......that'll help with gas consumption over time. Am I correct in saying AA expects somthing like 20 planes this year?

Finally, of course, to change a couple flights into a single wide-body, you need the plane to do it with. Are they do to receive any this summer/fall?

Dave



Can I have a mojito on this flight?
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 18, posted (6 years 7 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 9370 times:



Quoting Davescj (Reply 17):
Remember also, AA is looking to get 737s to replace the Mad Dogs......that'll help with gas consumption over time. Am I correct in saying AA expects somthing like 20 planes this year?

34 737-800s will be delivered throughout 2009, which will slowly help to re-build the temporary cuts in capacity being made later this year (assuming of course, that things don't get worse and AA decides to retire even more S80s, which is very possible).



a.
User currently offlineAA777LVR From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 220 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (6 years 7 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 9276 times:



Quoting SANFan (Reply 2):
When we taxied out of MIA on Monday, there were 4 777's parked at the mx base. Don't know why.

I previously worked in aircraft routing for AA (nope...dispatch doesn't do it....there's a department in maintenance that controls aircraft routing for dispatch). These birds are having their mtx (A checks, MEL's, etc.) done during daylight hours since the T7's fly so much overnight. Much like the 763's it's hard to stop them to get their checks done so the idle time during the day is built into the sked for maintenance. DFW is much the same way for the 763's...they'll come in from South America or HI and sit for the day to have mtx and then start flying again in the late afternoon/evening. Occasionally, this is where dispatch will "steal" a widebody from for aircraft subs (i.e. 757's/A300's, etc).

-AA777LVR


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 20, posted (6 years 7 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8955 times:



Quoting AA717driver (Reply 1):
We see 767's on domestic every so often. I don't know about regular schedules though. Int'l is still where the hard currency is at. TC

AA uses 767's JFK-SFO. I was on one yesterday.


User currently offlineSflaflight From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 1183 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (6 years 7 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8687 times:



Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 7):

Quoting AA717driver (Reply 1):
When we taxied out of MIA on Monday, there were 4 777's parked at the mx base. Don't know why.

Those 777 are taking their midday naps between very profitable flights to Buenos Aires & Sao Paulo. Some times they inter chabge with the 777 from LHR.

LOL! Even planes to Latin America need a siesta too! When in Rome, do as the Romans. When in Latin America, take a siesta!  rotfl 


User currently offlineDiscoverCSG From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 833 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (6 years 7 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 8485 times:



Quoting Deltaflyertoo (Reply 5):
Those 767-200 flights to JFK from LAX are often lightly loaded as well. They could probably cut some of those and even, gasp, shall I say it, place a 777 in.

I was under the impression that AA cleans up with high-yielding J/F pax on JFK-LAX. Am I wrong?


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23308 posts, RR: 20
Reply 23, posted (6 years 7 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 8461 times:



Quoting DiscoverCSG (Reply 22):
I was under the impression that AA cleans up with high-yielding J/F pax on JFK-LAX. Am I wrong?

No. There's a reason those flights (and SFO-JFK) have their own 3-class birds.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineDeltaflyertoo From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 1664 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (6 years 7 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 8411 times:

At one time the LAX-JFK route was HUGE for AA, however in the last 5 years they have seen increased compeitition by DL, add Jetblue and Virgin America and their yields have been substantially suppressed. In addition, yields high or not, they do offer a lot of frequency that spread the pax out on the 767s. I would think the biz traveler would be fine with a 7A, 930A, noon, 3pm and redeye option, (thats 5) instead of like 9 flights as it is now. Look at CO for example, they don't have 9 departures to EWR.

25 Cubsrule : UA and AA both seem to think that the correct way to deal with the increased competition is by differentiating themselves. Seeing 2 carriers doing it
26 DiscoverCSG : Well, I knew that was the case historically, but... With these times, I assume you mean LAX-JFK flights. For JFK-LAX, I think that would make it some
27 Gsosbee : This one yes. Also you need to remember there is no competition on the route unless you want a one stop through Denver, SLC or Phoenix.
28 EXAAUADL : Theyve taken a hit with UA's PS service..but I think UA doesnt make money flying a 112 seat 757.
29 Deltaflyertoo : Well IMO only I do think they are losing money on this strategy. The one WEAK source I have even is the CNBC special a day in the life of AA stating
30 Cubsrule : With both flying low-density planes, I can't help but wonder if they need the capacity. We have anecdotes about low loads, but nothing concrete.[Edit
31 Ikramerica : Any flight that doesn't lose money isn't bad. And there are other reasons for this route. The 3-class flights to NYC from LAX are subsidized by Holly
32 Aruba : Does this mean that BDL to SJU will return to the A300?
33 PRAirbus : AA 767's on JFK-Transcons are staying for a while since all AA 762's are getting an entire interior revamp in all cabins.
34 Joemugg : Lets hope sooner than later... maybe this is where the fifteen dollars is going.
35 MTSUATC : I would love to see a scheduled widebody back at BNA, and not the cargos. I know it's never going to happen. Just wishful thinking.
36 San747 : Actually, with the SJU cuts, it might be totally gone soon.
37 MAH4546 : BDL-SJU will most likely be staying and has survived the first (only?) round of cuts. Hartford has the third largest Caribbean immigrant community in
38 San747 : Oh... I didn't know the market was that strong. In that case, Aruba does have a valid question- might that route ever see AB6 equipment again?
39 SANFan : I found a "sliver of positive" in all of the upcoming cuts, etc. For all of us SAN-ophiles (and especially those whom are also wide-body lovers), I l
40 MAH4546 : Nowhere close. Only changes loaded are SJU schedule changes; and the individually announced BOS-SAN; ORD-HNL, JFK-STN, and ORD-EZE cuts. Nothing else
41 Flynavy : All 767-200s that AA has parked are older non-ER models, all stored at ROW since 2005 (less the one 762ER that exploded at LAX).
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