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Should UA, AA And DL Drop HI Neighbor Island Serv  
User currently offlineHNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 817 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3921 times:

Is it time for the legacy carriers to reconsider offering direct service to Maui, Kaui and the Big Island? Three airports all within 150 miles of HNL. Cost savings could be dramatic, While the loads may be satisfactory, does it really make sense, given the cost of fuel (higher than HNL) and support services required. Can't imagine that a short connection in HNL vrs flying non-stop would make a major dent in the number of passengers visiting the islands. Such a strategy would allow the use of larger aircraft (763 - 777 - 330) into HNL, hopefully reducing total frequency serving the islands without dramatically reducing the number of seats offered.


Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
25 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32180 posts, RR: 72
Reply 1, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3921 times:

IMO, no.

Service to the out islands tends to be higher-yielding. Those destinations are more upscale. The highest yielding vacation traffic to Hawai'i tends to go to Maui, not Honolulu. Maui is "the" destination in Hawai'i for wealthy West Coasters.

[Edited 2008-05-27 19:03:25]


a.
User currently offlineCadet57 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 9085 posts, RR: 31
Reply 2, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3913 times:



Quoting HNL-Jack (Thread starter):

I dont think they should,atleast for the time being. Aloha being gone and Mesa groups imminent chapt 11 filing. Seats are needed on the island.



Doors open, right hand side, next stop is Springfield.
User currently offlineAAH732UAL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3883 times:

No I think the large variety is what sells these routes.

UAL3 and a NWA flight go from OGG-KOA and that is about it for the inter island stuff.

I mean you go to Hawaii for a vacation, not to fly into KOA, for example LAX-LIH-HNL-OGG-ITO-then KOA where you wanted to go and spent an entire day flying the islands. I would like it, but that would prolley not go over very fly w/ the normal person!

I mean LAX-LIH, LAX-HNL, LAX-OGG, LAX-ITO, and LAX-KOA...... the loads are always full and need multiple flights a day to meet the demands!

Granted the flights may not be the biggest money makers w/ the discount flights to Hawaii and stuff..... but they are still making more then the it costs to OPR the flight!

[Edited 2008-05-27 19:06:32]

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21417 posts, RR: 60
Reply 4, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3840 times:

The flights wouldn't have started if there was demand. OGG especially has huge demand. And along with LIH, it's high yield.

Now, I can see KOA being dropped. When I visited, I transferred in HNL and it was fine. And with AQ gone and HA picking up the slack but with 717s, that means more frequency on routes, which makes connection times shorter in HNL.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineAirTranTUS From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3823 times:



Quoting HNL-Jack" class=quote target=_blank>HNL-Jack (Thread starter):
Such a strategy would allow the use of larger aircraft (763 - 777 - 330) into HNL, hopefully reducing total frequency serving the islands without dramatically reducing the number of seats offered.

Many airlines that have those aircraft already use them to HNL (and their bigger aircraft are earning real money elsewhere), so you would in fact increase frequency to HNL, putting more stress on resources there. It's not like the other airports are having trouble coping with the traffic. Adding more connections can only end badly for the consumer because it is more opportunities to lose luggage, miss a flight, etc. And when you can fly nonstop to the island of your destination, you can start relaxing earlier instead of sitting around HNL to get on another plane.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22309 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3730 times:



Quoting HNL-Jack" class=quote target=_blank>HNL-Jack (Thread starter):
Such a strategy would allow the use of larger aircraft (763 - 777 - 330) into HNL, hopefully reducing total frequency serving the islands without dramatically reducing the number of seats offered.

If UA can fly a 772 to KWI or (another) 772 to HNL, which is it going to do? It's not like most carriers have gobs of spare widebody capacity sitting around.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineAAH732UAL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3723 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 6):
If UA can fly a 772 to KWI

Side note, KWI may either go to a 747 or go back to a 3 day a week trip when Dubai starts! That a rumor sorta floating around.

[Edited 2008-05-27 19:53:56]

User currently onlinePohakuloa From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 393 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3675 times:

Will it happen - I doubt it will, atleast not in the foreseeable future.

But should they, I think the points you make have absolute sense in their logic. Less frequencies on larger aircraft makes economical sense and not paying a higher rate for the fillup on turnaround like you would on the neighboring islands does make good sense financially. Unfortunately even with gas prices being as high as they are, you still see people complaining while filling up their guzzlers at the corner station and as long as they have many to spare they want to travel when and where they want to and they want to fly non-stop.

I would think that the powers that be in the airlines flying to Hawaii will be (if they aren't already) taking a serious look at doing just that. Especially if fuel gets to that "magic" number per barrel, whatever that point may be.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
Now, I can see KOA being dropped. When I visited, I transferred in HNL and it was fine. And with AQ gone and HA picking up the slack but with 717s, that means more frequency on routes, which makes connection times shorter in HNL.

but as you say, the frequencies are higher. its not like you will be waiting around for 8 hours to get on a flight to a neighbor island if the flight you want is full.



Fast cars and 'Jet A' - such a sweet smell!
User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9378 posts, RR: 52
Reply 9, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3650 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 6):
If UA can fly a 772 to KWI or (another) 772 to HNL, which is it going to do? It's not like most carriers have gobs of spare widebody capacity sitting around.

Well UA flies both. The 772s to Hawaii are very high capacity in a mostly economy layout with a dense domestic style first class. They make their money off of high economy fares. KWI can fill up first and business class to make money. Both routes work and have the potential to earn the same amount.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24080 posts, RR: 22
Reply 10, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3620 times:



Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 9):
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 6):
If UA can fly a 772 to KWI or (another) 772 to HNL, which is it going to do? It's not like most carriers have gobs of spare widebody capacity sitting around.

Well UA flies both. The 772s to Hawaii are very high capacity in a mostly economy layout with a dense domestic style first class. They make their money off of high economy fares. KWI can fill up first and business class to make money. Both routes work and have the potential to earn the same amount.

You're overlooking that a significant number of seats to Hawaii are filled by passengers redeeming frequent flyer miles. That's one factor that seriously depresses yields to Hawaii, apart from there being very little high yield premium class traffic.


User currently offlineEgcarter From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 159 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3606 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
Now, I can see KOA being dropped. When I visited, I transferred in HNL and it was fine. And with AQ gone and HA picking up the slack but with 717s, that means more frequency on routes, which makes connection times shorter in HNL.

I think that you seriously overestimate the interisland lift capacity. It's bad enough getting an interisland seat now...I shudder to imagine what would happen if they dropped direct mainland flights to outer islands. And four more 717s for HA isn't going to fix that, especially since we don't know what's going to become of GO! as yet.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22309 posts, RR: 20
Reply 12, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3606 times:



Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 9):
Well UA flies both.

 checkmark  However, UA would have to convert some international 777s to Hawaii configuration if they were to decrease frequency and increase aircraft size to Hawaii. There's definitely an opportunity cost there.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineHNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 817 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks ago) and read 3469 times:

I appreciate all the good comments and certainly understand the customer benefits of direct service. However, it just appears to me, that as airlines are being forced to reduce flying to create higher load factors and greater return, such a move may have to be considered sooner or later.

As to the increased demand for inter-island service, I'm sure if the demand is there HA, go! or whomever will insure there is enough lift. There's certainly going to be a surplus of parked aircraft available.



Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21417 posts, RR: 60
Reply 14, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks ago) and read 3461 times:



Quoting Egcarter (Reply 11):
And four more 717s for HA isn't going to fix that, especially since we don't know what's going to become of GO! as yet.

They would increase HA's interisland capacity by 40%. It's a start.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineUA2162 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 488 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (5 years 10 months 4 weeks ago) and read 3437 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
Now, I can see KOA being dropped.

I may be biased but I don't airlines pulling their KOA service.

There's a lot of money on the Kohala Coast. We have numerous upscale resorts and housing developments. This is where the money is.

Keep in mind that airlines are adding service to KOA. AS is starting service, WestJet has had great success, AC comes back every winter, DL is coming back with their new LAX flight, UA has a solid schedule to all their hubs minus IAD, NW is bringing back the ANC flight (seasonal) to compliment their SEA service, US has great load factors and often offers two flights during peak months, JL continues to fill their NRT flight and AA does relatively well (when they're not on mechanicals).

Seems to me they wouldn't keep adding service if they were losing money. Same thing for the other islands.

Just my biased two cents.  Wink


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7343 posts, RR: 28
Reply 16, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 3269 times:

What you will likely continue to see is more service being dropped from non-West Coast hubs to the islands. AA's announcement yesterday that ORD-HNL is being cut is a bad sign for a route like DFW-OGG.


They will not get rid of West Coast - OGG/KOA/LIH service. This routes can be flown easily with 757's and do not require widebody A330/767/777 sized aircraft that could otherwise be used on higher yielding International routes.

It will never get to the point where everything goes back to HNL. Right now these routes to the islands appear to be going by the wayside less due to fuel, more due the need to allocate aircraft to better performing/higher yielding international routes.

Remember post-9/11 when the airlines retrenched and beefed up their Hawaii service since more Americans were wanting to stay in the country? Now the tide is turning the other way.

Things may quiet down a bit if oil & the economy stabilize. Right now airlines are taking drastic measures to avoid being where they were a few years ago where they were in denial for too long about the state of the industry.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22309 posts, RR: 20
Reply 17, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3076 times:



Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 16):
Things may quiet down a bit if oil & the economy stabilize.

Oil and the economy arguably are stabilizing. I doubt that most of the current cuts are designed to be rescinded in 6 months.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineEgcarter From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 159 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 2988 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 14):
They would increase HA's interisland capacity by 40%. It's a start.

I don't think most people realize how much of the interisland traffic is local people going between islands, not tourists. If you cut way back on the direct mainland service to the outer islands, then you create much more competition between locals and tourists for those interisland seats as well. And can HNL handle the requisite increase in long-haul traffic (plus interisland) with aplomb? I'm skeptical... then again, traffic will drop substantially due to the global economic woes.


User currently offlineHNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 817 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 2873 times:



Quoting Egcarter (Reply 18):
I don't think most people realize how much of the interisland traffic is local people going between islands, not tourists. If you cut way back on the direct mainland service to the outer islands, then you create much more competition between locals and tourists for those interisland seats as well. And can HNL handle the requisite increase in long-haul traffic (plus interisland) with aplomb? I'm skeptical... then again, traffic will drop substantially due to the global economic woes.

I don't know what the current market mix is, but the good news is that the local traffic generally travels in the morning and late afternoon/evening. Visitors traffic tends to be from
mid-morning to mid-afternoon. Any increase should have little affect on local traffic, but may impact the amount of lift needed during the day.

The heaviest use of the gates is when the early morning arrival Asia flights are still at the gates, the last leaving about 1 pm with mainland arrivals begin around 11 am. Therefore, I would assume that the only real crunch would be between eleven and one. The rest of the day should be in fairly good shape to receive additional flights.



Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 2873 times:

let me ask this.

why should all traffic to HA be funnelled through HNL any more than all traffic to MN be routed through MSP or all traffic to IL go through ORD?

There are people who want to go to the neighbor islands and since Hawaii is part of the US which has a deregulated domestic marketplace, airlines are free to add routes to any markets they believe customers want to travel to. When the LA and SF areas comprise large amounts of Hawaii local traffic, there is no reason to force those passengers through HNL if they want to travel nonstop and there are airlines willing to provide that service.. which there are and there will be.

Further, it is more expensive and more environmentally damaging to force passengers through unnecessary connections.


User currently offlineUA2162 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 488 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 2874 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 20):
When the LA and SF areas comprise large amounts of Hawaii local traffic, there is no reason to force those passengers through HNL if they want to travel nonstop and there are airlines willing to provide that service.. which there are and there will be.

 checkmark  Well said.

Below, you'll find a very unscientific total of mainland flights to KOA. These are off the top of my head and I picked the busiest day - Saturday.

1 x NRT (JL, 763 or 744)
2 x YVR (AC, 763, seasonal; WJ, 737, seasonal)
1 x PHX (US, 752)
1 x SEA (NW, 753, originates in OGG)
1 x ORD (UA, 772, originates in OGG)
2 x SFO (UA, 762, 752)
1 x DEN (UA, 763 or 752)
3 x LAX (UA 2x757 and AA 752 or 763 during peak times)

Future service:
1 x LAX (DL, 752)
1 x SEA (AS, 738)

My rough estimate puts us at around 2600 seats a day. This would equate to roughly 21 interisland flights - for KOA alone. Factor in OGG and LIH and you'll need an interisland airline with a huge fleet and an opportunity to lose a bunch of bags.  Smile

To me, taking away the neighbor islands nonstop mainland service and running everything through HNL would be the equivalent of taking away all nonstop flights from SNA, LGB and BUR and run everything through LAX.


User currently onlinePohakuloa From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 393 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2873 times:



Quoting HNL-Jack" class=quote target=_blank>HNL-Jack (Reply 19):
The heaviest use of the gates is when the early morning arrival Asia flights are still at the gates, the last leaving about 1 pm with mainland arrivals begin around 11 am. Therefore, I would assume that the only real crunch would be between eleven and one. The rest of the day should be in fairly good shape to receive additional flights.

 checkmark 

Quoting UA2162 (Reply 21):
My rough estimate puts us at around 2600 seats a day. This would equate to roughly 21 interisland flights - for KOA alone. Factor in OGG and LIH and you'll need an interisland airline with a huge fleet and an opportunity to lose a bunch of bags.

 checkmark 

funny how i agree with both of you here. Like I stated above if oil does not level out or decrease, I think it will be a real possibility on airlines part to go all trans pac flight into HNL. Of course as far as baggage goes, This could seemingly cause a HUGE problem (yes I trust the baggage handlers, but still).

I do think this is far more likely, however, when/if HNL gets its facelift including new baggage system and terminal layout as proposed.
Pages 6-7
http://test.hawaii.gov/hawaiiaviatio...-brochure/AirportBro-web-part2.pdf



Fast cars and 'Jet A' - such a sweet smell!
User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7343 posts, RR: 28
Reply 23, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 2580 times:

Again, I ask the question, if airlines are flying 757's to the outer islands from the West Coast and if that is where passengers want to go, why would they suddenly switch all flights to HNL because of fuel costs?

The flights are the same distance, and it would be with the same sized aircraft.

Nevermind that the hotels & resorts would fight tooth & nail to keep nonstops into LIH, KOA, and OGG simply to sustain their businesses.

No need to get doomsday on us.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8091 posts, RR: 7
Reply 24, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2499 times:
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Reminds me of the days when the Irish Government made all Atlantic flights stop in Shannon, they kept the runway in Dublin short for the purpose of making sure a 747 couldn't fly nonstop to JFK or Boston. WHY make passengers from California suffer the indignity of adding hours to their trips by having to fly over HNL to the outer islands. This would kill lots of weekend traffic, hurting the property market since many people wouldn't use their homes as often. That would hurt demand for property, a very important industry in Hawaii.

User currently onlinePohakuloa From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 393 posts, RR: 0
Reply 25, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 2278 times:



Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 23):
Again, I ask the question, if airlines are flying 757's to the outer islands from the West Coast and if that is where passengers want to go, why would they suddenly switch all flights to HNL because of fuel costs?

The flights are the same distance, and it would be with the same sized aircraft.

I believe he was stating that the cost to fuel at LIH, KOA, OGG, ITO is far more expensive than it is to fuel on HNL hence saving money on the fill-up. It has nothing to do with the distance and a/c type.



Fast cars and 'Jet A' - such a sweet smell!
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