Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
744 Replacement - How Will The A350-10 Do?  
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 8163 times:

Hi all,

I have been asked to do some research for a client about world 744 pax fleets and how I see them declining in the next ten years. We’ve been asked about their likely replacement as well and I’ve been doing some basic modelling, real back of a cigarette packet stuff, but here’s what I came up with – thought you guys might like a look at my notes.

I've been compiling a list of airlines that have a 744 pax fleet that will be replacing them or commencing their replacement programmes in the next six to ten years. (I left off Mahan Air as they won’t be getting rid of their Blue Sky 744s for probably another decade if IR is anything to go by). Obviously its all basic prediction stuff really, and all my own opinion, so don’t tear me to pieces!

UA - *
NW/DL - *
BA - *
QF - *
CX - *
JL - to be replaced by 77W. *
MH - Part replaced A388. *
TG - Part replaced by A350-10, part by A388. *
AI Part replaced by 77W. *
AF Part replaced by 77W, part by A388.
LH - Part replaced by A346, part by 748i, part by A388.
SQ Part replaced by 77W, part by A388. *
CI - to be partly replaced by A359. *
CA - *
SV - *
GA - to be replaced by 77W.
VS - Part replaced by A388. *
KL - to be replaced by 77W.
BR - Part replaced by 77W. *
KE - Part replaced by 77W, part by A388.
OZ - *
NZ - to be replaced by 77W.
PR - to be replaced by 77W.
AT - to be replaced by 787.
NH - Part replaced by 77W, part by A388 (rumoured). *
LY - *
AR - Part replaced by A388. (order status uncertain).
SS - *
FJ - to be replaced by 787.

The airlines marked with an " * " are thought to have to make an order or a further order to fully replace what 744s they have currently.

Of these then, we see that the following airlines are very likely to order 744 replacement aircraft in the next few years:

UA - *
NW/DL - *
BA - *
QF - *
CX - *
JL - to be replaced by 77W. *
MH - Part replaced A388. *
TG - Part replaced by A350-10, part by A388. *
AI Part replaced by 77W. *
SQ Part replaced by 77W, part by A388. *
CI - to be partly replaced by A359. *
CA - *
SV - *
VS - Part replaced by A388. *
BR - Part replaced by 77W. *
OZ - *
NH - Part replaced by 77W, part by A388 (rumoured). *
LY - *
SS - *

Let’s look at each case at a time.

UA – Not sure if they would be willing to take a GE-powered 77W, and are quite close to Airbus. They could certainly do with A380s but aren’t likely to buy soon. A350-10 makes a lot of sense for them as it would offer compelling savings over their 744 fleet which is worked very hard transpac. It may be that they shun the A380 and go with either 77W or A350-10. – TOO CLOSE TO CALL

NW/DL – 77W looks very likely. Possibly 748i too. – 77W.

BA – Almost guaranteed that they go for A350-10 to fit between their 772ER and A388 fleets. – A350.

QF - Almost guaranteed that they go for A350-10 to fit between their 789/A333 and A388 fleets. – A350.

CX – Tough one to call. More 77Ws look favourite. Would probably be a launch customer for an A389 but the A350 series makes a lot of sense for them too. Impossible to say for sure which way this one will go. My gut feeling says A389 and 77W. – TOO CLOSE TO CALL

JL – More 77Ws look very likely, but hard to count out the A388 at this stage. – 77W

MH – Like CX, this one could go 77W or A350-10. I expect more A388s to be ordered, but I have a strong suspicion they will go for a spread of 787s and make the 787-10 their largest twin. – TOO CLOSE TO CALL

TG – A large number of A359 and A350-10s look likely, and I certainly would not rule out more A388s. – A350

AI - More 77Ws are all but a certainty, but the question remains whether the company wants to get in on the VLA stakes – I think the A380 or 748i have an equal chance here. – 77W

SQ - More A388s look likely. Some A350-10s are likely but not for a while. - NEITHER

CI – I am not 100% convinced the A359 is big enough for them and a subfleet of A350-10s is likely eventually. – A350

CA – 77W – they probably have enough on order for now. A350 and A388 a likelihood eventually. – 77W

SV – 77W looks overwhelming favourite. – 77W

VS - Whatever they order will probably replace their A346 fleets as well at the same time – A350-10 looks very compelling but they will have to order quickly. 77W the only option if they need replacements more quickly. – TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

BR – More 77Ws look overwhelming favourite. Doubt they need anything larger than this. – 77W.

OZ – Hard to say but they are likely to go 788 to replace their 767s so will probably centre around the 788 in future – 787-10 is probably as large as they need, but if they need anything larger, then A388 looks favourite. – TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

NH – If they take the A388 as is rumoured then they will use it alongside 77W – highly unlikely they will deviate from this, and more 77Ws look a certainty in future. – 77W.

LY - 77W looks overwhelming favourite. 748i an outside chance. – 77W.

SS - 77W looks overwhelming favourite. A388 an outside chance. – 77W.

Predicted results:

77W – 9
A350-10 – 4
Other/Unknown – 6

Granted, these are very cursory results and obviously deeply flawed from a data point of view because they are based on my subjective view, but they show an interesting set of results nonetheless, even if it is basically just a bit of subjective fun.

On the surface of it, the 77W absolutely trounces the A350-10 in terms of being the most popular choice of 744 replacement, and it should be noted that in the case of NH, BR, SV, AI and JL at the very least, it squared up against the A350-10 and (probably) still won – it was not a case of the A350-10 not being offered so the 77W being the only real option, as with earlier orders. More than anything, it shows the advantage that the 77W will probably still retain having been first to market – the A350 is playing catch up it seems to me. There is a finite market and the 77W has had the lion’s share already it would seem to me.

That said, it is clear that the longer the airlines wish to keep their 744s in service (BA, QF, TG etc) the better the case for the A350 is and that is reflected in the results. Interesting stuff.

Anyone want to talk about the TOO CLOSE TO CALL companies? How do you see them ordering?

[Edited 2008-05-30 04:21:06]


What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
44 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineGlobeEx From Germany, joined Aug 2007, 742 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 8061 times:

Let's put it that way. If the 77W

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
UA – Not sure if they would be willing to take a GE-powered 77W, and are quite close to Airbus. They could certainly do with A380s but aren’t likely to buy soon. A350-10 makes a lot of sense for them as it would offer compelling savings over their 744 fleet which is worked very hard transpac. It may be that they shun the A380 and go with either 77W or A350-10. – TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Personally I would rather think that their replacement of the 744 will either be A350-1 or 748, as long as Boeing does't offer a 77W replacement. But those are just my two cents.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
NW/DL – 77W looks very likely. Possibly 748i too. – 77W.

I think with DL on board it will rather be 77W, but we'll see.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
AI - More 77Ws are all but a certainty, but the question remains whether the company wants to get in on the VLA stakes – I think the A380 or 748i have an equal chance here. – 77W

I think with the 77W in AI's fleet the A380 does have the edge.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
CI – I am not 100% convinced the A359 is big enough for them and a subfleet of A350-10s is likely eventually. – A350

Don't count out the 748 here. They do have 15 744 in their fleet. Maybe A350 and Afew A380 (unlikely, but possible) With the A380 it might be interesting how their TPE-FRA with the 744 works. If they can establish some more l/h destinations with a 744 the A380 might have a chance in the end.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):

SV – 77W looks overwhelming favourite. – 77W

Disagree. Not that they might go for the 77W, but that it is the overwhelming favourite. Just look at the development. A320 ordered and A330 rumored.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):

LY - 77W looks overwhelming favourite. 748i an outside chance. – 77W.

Jes, or the keep flying what they've got for the next 20 years. With LY you never know.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):

SS - 77W looks overwhelming favourite. A388 an outside chance. – 77W.

Give the A380 a little more credit. Not too much, but a little, hehe.


Might I add, if the 787-1 might get into the picture eventually a lot of your assumption have to be rivised.

Oh yeah, and before I forget: Nice post =)

GlobeEx

[Edited 2008-05-30 04:30:28]


As you may presently yourself be fully made aware of, my grammar sucks.
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 2, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 8046 times:

I think with fuel prices being what they are, carriers are less likely to want to wait for A350-10 to replace their 744s - 77W will benefit I think.

I think what this is telling us is that the A350s success will come at the lower end of the size range and that the A350-10s niche as a 744 replacement is shrinking daily because the 77W has got a huge piece of the pie and between it and the VLAs, there isnt much left. BA and QF look to me to be the main exceptions to this rule, but God help them if the A350-10 is two years late!

Any thoughts?



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 3, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7970 times:



Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 1):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
NW/DL – 77W looks very likely. Possibly 748i too. – 77W.

I think with DL on board it will rather be 77W, but we'll see.

Hell will freeze over before DeltaWest order the A380.

Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 1):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
CI – I am not 100% convinced the A359 is big enough for them and a subfleet of A350-10s is likely eventually. – A350

Don't count out the 748 here. They do have 15 744 in their fleet. Maybe A350 and Afew A380 (unlikely, but possible) With the A380 it might be interesting how their TPE-FRA with the 744 works. If they can establish some more l/h destinations with a 744 the A380 might have a chance in the end.

I'd be extremely shocked if they went for the A388. 748i is far more likely, but I still dont think they need the capacity - A350-10 is massively favourite I think.

Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 1):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):

SV – 77W looks overwhelming favourite. – 77W

Disagree. Not that they might go for the 77W, but that it is the overwhelming favourite. Just look at the development. A320 ordered and A330 rumored.

They already have a large fleet of GE90-powered 777s. The savings by replacing their 747 fleet with 77Ws will be compelling.

Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 1):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):

SS - 77W looks overwhelming favourite. A388 an outside chance. – 77W.

Give the A380 a little more credit. Not too much, but a little, hehe.

A Corsair A388 - 700+ seats? Ouch. Make for a fun time on SXM though I guess.  Wink

Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 1):
Might I add, if the 787-1 might get into the picture eventually a lot of your assumption have to be rivised.

IIRC the 787-10, when it is eventually launched, is still somewhat smaller than a A350-10. Still, its an option for those who have 787 fleets.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineGlobeEx From Germany, joined Aug 2007, 742 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7934 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):
I think with fuel prices being what they are, carriers are less likely to want to wait for A350-10 to replace their 744s - 77W will benefit I think.

I partly agree. On the other hand, the order backlog on the 777 line should not be underestimated as well. Maybe some airlines are willing to wait another 3-4 years in order to get A350s, but you do have a point here.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):
I think what this is telling us is that the A350s success will come at the lower end of the size range and that the A350-10s niche as a 744 replacement is shrinking daily because the 77W has got a huge piece of the pie and between it and the VLAs, there isnt much left

Well I'm no sure. Definately some airlines took the 77W to replace their 744. On the other site, many of those where most probably no A350 candidates anyway (Japanes candidates). Others did order or are still going to order the A350 or 787 anyway (SQ, TG, AF) A candidate where your point is valid for example is AC though. They took the 77W and 787 so the A350 is out of the game. A candidate where I think the A350 will be in the race (not now, but in a few years) is for example AI, eventhough they are getting 77W.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
LH - Part replaced by A346, part by 748i, part by A388.

I wouldn't say that LH is replacing their 744 with the A346. Just a sidenote.

GlobeEx



As you may presently yourself be fully made aware of, my grammar sucks.
User currently offlineGlobeEx From Germany, joined Aug 2007, 742 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7897 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 3):
Hell will freeze over before DeltaWest order the A380.



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 3):

I'd be extremely shocked if they went for the A388. 748i is far more likely, but I still dont think they need the capacity - A350-10 is massively favourite I think.

I agree with you, but they did mention the A380.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 3):
ey already have a large fleet of GE90-powered 777s. The savings by replacing their 747 fleet with 77Ws will be compelling.

I agree, but the A330 would work well for most of their routes. If not better.

Can't wait for the pictures at SXM =)

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 3):
IIRC the 787-10, when it is eventually launched, is still somewhat smaller than a A350-10. Still, its an option for those who have 787 fleets.

Yes, expect the Japanese and most American carriers to go for that option, still.

GlobeEx

[Edited 2008-05-30 04:49:11]


As you may presently yourself be fully made aware of, my grammar sucks.
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1909 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7776 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
UA – Not sure if they would be willing to take a GE-powered 77W, and are quite close to Airbus. They could certainly do with A380s but aren’t likely to buy soon. A350-10 makes a lot of sense for them as it would offer compelling savings over their 744 fleet which is worked very hard transpac. It may be that they shun the A380 and go with either 77W or A350-10. – TOO CLOSE TO CALL

IMO United will go for 77W for the simple reason of type commonality with their 77Es. I could imagine 787-10 (if launched) replacing their 77Es on Transatlantic routes and a dozen or so 77Ls complementing 77Ws on Transpacific market, where the 350+ pax capacity is not justified.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
CX – Tough one to call. More 77Ws look favourite.

My gut is telling me that they will eventually get 747-8i. I could be wrong though.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
VS - Whatever they order will probably replace their A346 fleets as well at the same time – A350-10 looks very compelling but they will have to order quickly.

I say this is a guaranteed A350-1000 order. If SRB wanted 777-300ERs for VS, he'd order them by now.



Now get your f***ing Jumbo Jet off my airport!!! - AC/DC "Ain't No Fun To Be a Millionaire"
User currently offlineGlobeEx From Germany, joined Aug 2007, 742 posts, RR: 5
Reply 7, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7724 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
IMO United will go for 77W for the simple reason of type commonality with their 77Es. I could imagine 787-10 (if launched) replacing their 77Es on Transatlantic routes and a dozen or so 77Ls complementing 77Ws on Transpacific market, where the 350+ pax capacity is not justified.

I disagree. I would think they will go for a next generation aircraft for their l/h-fleet and phase out their 772 at the same time.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
My gut is telling me that they will eventually get 747-8i. I could be wrong though.

Don't count out the A380. I think it does have a good chance here!

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
I say this is a guaranteed A350-1000 order. If SRB wanted 777-300ERs for VS, he'd order them by now.

Well, they ordered the 787, so maybe the 787-1 would do the job if it eventually will be build.



GlobeEx

[Edited 2008-05-30 05:09:48]


As you may presently yourself be fully made aware of, my grammar sucks.
User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7680 times:

Speaking about Corsair , i know Airbus has proposed a mix of A340-600s and A340-500s , to replace both 744s and A330s.
A346 will be ideal for peak season to the French Antilles and Reunion , and A345 for low season there + other markets such as Mauritius , Dominican Republic , Cuba , Senegal.

I would like to point out that what Airbus proposes is ONLY second hand planes , probably coming from Qatar , Etihad , Emirates , SIA and Thai.

I also know , another option for SS is 77Ws , also second hand planes ONLY.

Probably no way for them to get A380s.Ideal for peak season , but NOT all year.round.
And knowing SS want only second hand planes , will take too much time to get second hand A380s.


User currently offlineGlobeEx From Germany, joined Aug 2007, 742 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7654 times:



Quoting FCKC (Reply 8):
And knowing SS want only second hand planes

Didn't know that, so that quite rules the A380 out. But they sure will have a hard time finding some second hand 77W in the next 5 years. So the A343 and A346 might be an idea in the end.

GlobeEx



As you may presently yourself be fully made aware of, my grammar sucks.
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31386 posts, RR: 85
Reply 10, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7561 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

As it has been explained to me, UA uses the 744s where they need passenger capacity and total payload lift. As such, I think they might commit to the 747-8I as it offers both over the 77W. That might also push them to take the 787 for the benefit of having a common engine type (GE instead of Pratt). The 787-8 would work for their international and domestic 767 fleet and the 787-9 would likely work as a 777 replacement - it is smaller in passenger capacity, but should get close on payload since UA operates de-rated models. However, smaller capacities should improve yields which would benefit them (especially if fares remain high and traffic growth slows or even starts to contract).

BA and QF have evidently pinned their hopes on the A350-1000. BA operates low-density configurations so that the A350-1000 looks to offer a bit less payload then the 77W won't affect them and they can benefit from the lower fuel burn. QF, on the other hand, seems to be expecting the world from the A350-1000 in terms of payload and range...


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 7232 times:

I think buying 777W or A350-1000 as 747 replacement is reducing capasity and reducing market share or going for more frequencies (&crew &slots & landing rights).

Many carriers operating to / from booming Asia probably don't have those on their wish list, to say it mildly.

Many 747 are used on daily long haul flights using feeder waves to fill them.

The market has been growing 5% per year, asia faster.

Lets take those as a starting points & look again..


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 12, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 7061 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
I think buying 777W or A350-1000 as 747 replacement is reducing capasity and reducing market share or going for more frequencies (&crew &slots & landing rights).

Many carriers operating to / from booming Asia probably don't have those on their wish list, to say it mildly.

Many 747 are used on daily long haul flights using feeder waves to fill them.

The market has been growing 5% per year, asia faster.

Lets take those as a starting points & look again..

Respectfully, Keesje - you are preaching to the choir if you are here to bang the A380 drum.

Taking the VLA's out of the question - i'm simply trying to look into which of the 77W and the A350-10 will end up with more direct 744 replacement orders.

In this case, the 77W looks to get the Lion's share of the 744s that are replaced 1 for 1 by big twins. I could be wrong of course.

As far as your capacity reduction point goes - its "near as damnit" and I dont think the small difference in capacity will force extra frequencies on a large scale at all - it hasnt so far. Why would it now? If anything the +/- 20 seat reduction on the 77W will have a positive effect on yield for the flight in some cases because pricing is adjusted accordingly.

Conversely, I dont think many routes that get 1 for 1 744 flights replaced by A388 or 748i will see much in the way of frequency reduction - if there are any, there wont be too many in my opinion.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 13, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 7048 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
As it has been explained to me, UA uses the 744s where they need passenger capacity and total payload lift. As such, I think they might commit to the 747-8I as it offers both over the 77W. That might also push them to take the 787 for the benefit of having a common engine type (GE instead of Pratt). The 787-8 would work for their international and domestic 767 fleet and the 787-9 would likely work as a 777 replacement - it is smaller in passenger capacity, but should get close on payload since UA operates de-rated models. However, smaller capacities should improve yields which would benefit them (especially if fares remain high and traffic growth slows or even starts to contract).

I actually agree with you to some extent - the 789 and 748i would be a compelling LoHa combo IMHO.

I think UA could really make the A388 work beautifully on the transpac routes. I hope they do go for one VLA or the other though.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineGlobeEx From Germany, joined Aug 2007, 742 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 6987 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 13):
I think UA could really make the A388 work beautifully on the transpac routes. I hope they do go for one VLA or the other though.

A UA A380 sure would look nice.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
I think buying 777W or A350-1000 as 747 replacement is reducing capasity and reducing market share or going for more frequencies (&crew &slots & landing rights).

This may be right, but airlines are companies that want the most profit. Even if you loose marketshare by reducing capacity by like 10% but have a profit that is 10% higher what will the airlines' choice be, think carefully  Wink

GlobeEx



As you may presently yourself be fully made aware of, my grammar sucks.
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6776 times:



Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 14):
This may be right, but airlines are companies that want the most profit. Even if you loose marketshare by reducing capacity by like 10% but have a profit that is 10% higher what will the airlines' choice be, think carefully

Yes, but find one competitor that doesn't want & tries the same thing  Wink

Giving in 10% while the market is growing 5% per year & buy an aircraft for the next 20 yrs is a dramatic choice, opening up market for more competitors...

Many seem to assume airlines adjust their market services to meet capasity, airlines selecting aircraft look 20 years ahead and do the other around.


User currently offlineSeaBosDca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5826 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6384 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 13):
I think UA could really make the A388 work beautifully on the transpac routes. I hope they do go for one VLA or the other though.

I don't think they have a choice. Quite a few of their current 744 flights are into severely slot-restricted airports where they are competing against home-market carriers with many more slots. Downsizing will not particularly help their yields in this situation, and I don't think they will just want to throw away market share without an improvement in yield.

If Asian economies continue growing quickly, an A388 makes total sense for them. There could also be a compelling case for the 748I based on commonality and the more manageable increase in size. But I think they will need one or the other.


User currently offlineSeaBosDca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5826 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6374 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
QF, on the other hand, seems to be expecting the world from the A350-1000 in terms of payload and range...

Remember, Dixon also appeared to expect Boeing to somehow build a 350-seat, 8000+ nm 787-10.  boggled 


User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4869 posts, RR: 14
Reply 18, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 6256 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
and it should be noted that in the case of NH, BR, SV, AI and JL at the very least, it squared up against the A350-10 and (probably) still won – it was not a case of the A350-10 not being offered so the 77W being the only real option, as with earlier orders.

did you mean BR? they were one of the earliest 77W/L customers , 00 and 02 orders.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 5985 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
On the surface of it, the 77W absolutely trounces the A350-10 in terms of being the most popular choice of 744 replacement, and it should be noted that in the case of NH, BR, SV, AI and JL at the very least, it squared up against the A350-10 and (probably) still won – it was not a case of the A350-10 not being offered so the 77W being the only real option, as with earlier orders. More than anything, it shows the advantage that the 77W will probably still retain having been first to market – the A350 is playing catch up it seems to me. There is a finite market and the 77W has had the lion’s share already it would seem to me.

I think the A350-1000 will be available from 2015. All the orders you mention will be fully delivered by the. The A350-1000 probably was no option seeing the time planning. So no real 1-1 competition with the 777W.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 20, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 5961 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
On the surface of it, the 77W absolutely trounces the A350-10 in terms of being the most popular choice of 744 replacement, and it should be noted that in the case of NH, BR, SV, AI and JL at the very least, it squared up against the A350-10 and (probably) still won – it was not a case of the A350-10 not being offered so the 77W being the only real option, as with earlier orders. More than anything, it shows the advantage that the 77W will probably still retain having been first to market – the A350 is playing catch up it seems to me. There is a finite market and the 77W has had the lion’s share already it would seem to me.

I thought the A350-1000 was going to "kill" the B77W or that the A350-1000 was a "time bomb" for the B77W (just like others have been stating about the B787 versus A330).

The fact of the matter is price is but one of many, many variables (which I know you know)....availability, fleet compatibility, terms of contract and mission requirement all play a role as well.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
he market has been growing 5% per year, asia faster.

So?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 19):

I think the A350-1000 will be available from 2015. All the orders you mention will be fully delivered by the. The A350-1000 probably was no option seeing the time planning. So no real 1-1 competition with the 777W.

Given the good backlog, I would think it might be 2017/2018 actually.

According to wikipedia.org..

"First delivery for the -900 is scheduled for mid-2013, with the -800 and -1000 following on, respectively, 12 and 24 months later.[15] At a press conference 4 December 2006 a few new technical details of the A350 XWB design were revealed, but no new customers were identified and John Leahy indicated existing A350 contracts were under re-negotiation due to increases in prices compared to the original A350s contracted."

With >350 firm orders, that's what....3+ years of production right there.



"Up the Irons!"
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31386 posts, RR: 85
Reply 21, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 5778 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!



Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
The market has been growing 5% per year, asia faster.

The latest numbers show - as an aggregate - Asia-North America dropping about 5% the past year and Asia-EU dropping about 2%. The only market seeing growth the past year is Asia-India.



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 13):
I think UA could really make the A388 work beautifully on the transpac routes.

They just canceled LAX-HKG less then a year or so after starting it, so I am not sure how much traffic UA is going to be able to command on TPAC. On the plus side, they will have a better physical premium cabin product then what QF is launching, which is a 180´ from the current situation... I expect QF will still have a catering and staff advantage, however.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 5699 times:

Stitch are you saying traffic is dropping? Do you have sources?

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/
http://stagev4.airbus.com/en/corpora...mf/pdfs/3_gmf_traffic-forecast.pdf


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31386 posts, RR: 85
Reply 23, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 5664 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!



Quoting Keesje (Reply 22):
Stitch are you saying traffic is dropping? Do you have sources?

It was an article printed in the Seattle Times (though not written by them) a week or two ago quoting some international body that tracks this stuff reporting on the numbers for 2007.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21580 posts, RR: 59
Reply 24, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 5663 times:

QF is replacing the 744 with the A380. They have 20 on order. That replaces the 20 oldest 744s. They are retiring 743s, and a couple newer 744s will end up doing some of those 743 routes, A330/767s will fly others. One can imagine that QF will take another 5-10 A380s to eventually replace the 744ER fleet which will still remain for a while in a 2-class 2nd tier market capacity.

A350-1000 would be for expansion like the second tranche of 787s, and with QF talking contraction right now, not sure if an order is pending…



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
25 FrmrCAPCADET : If the oil plateau starting in May 05 continues and prices of oil continue to rise until recession stableizes them, what impact will that have on plan
26 NA : Imho the thread should better be called 773ER replacement - how will the A350-1000 do?
27 Stitch : QF's CEO recently noted that while he still thinks not buying the 777 was a mistake, he did note that if he had them right now, they'd be making him m
28 Ikramerica : including 40 A350-1000s already. I don't see Airbus having any slots for 2015 for A350-1000s. And oil use growth in Asia also unexpectedly stagnated.
29 Scbriml : But, in exactly the same way that some late 787 customers managed to be allocated some surprisingly early delivery slots, it would be silly of Airbus
30 CX747 : Wow, here we are talking about 744 fleet replacements! I remember that one of the first books I ever bought on the 747 only had 2-3 photos of the airc
31 Travelhound : I'm not to sure we can assume that airlines are going to simply replace their 744's with a newer similar / capability type aircraft. I think QF only h
32 Astuteman : I don't think we need to talk about "second guessing"..I think the situation is pretty simple. The 773ER is in the position of being available earlie
33 Jacobin777 : Once the Olympics are over, there is the possibility of the Chinese Govt. either ending or diminishing the fuel subsides-that should decrease oil use
34 Ikramerica : But, if the 787 sales are any indication, this may NEVER happen. The 787 is said to be sold out in any large numbers through 2017 at this point. Even
35 Jacobin777 : Hence Astuteman's comment about availability. B744 sales were on their way down well before the A380, so I really don't see it the A380 the cause of
36 Post contains links LAXDESI : I have posted a thread in tech forum comparing A350-10 to B773ER. My model suggests that A350-10 (9-abreast Y) is operationally more efficient than B7
37 GlobeEx : I agree, but you should better put it as A380 and 77W sized plane (could be 77W or A350-10) I would guess there are a few slots still available befor
38 EA772LR : I don't disagree with you at all, and in fact the A380, with say the TrentXWB, and other improvements would prove to be exceptionally efficient. But
39 Ikramerica : I didn't miss the point. The A332 will always be available sooner, so that would imply the A332 will continue to sell for 10 more years in strong num
40 Astuteman : The way I try to view this is to consider how an airline might justify buying the older model. In my view this is most sensibly done in terms of ROI.
41 LAXDESI : . Excellent job capturing the important variables of capital budgeting decision for choosing between competing aircrafts.
42 Ikramerica : Well yeah. That's always true. The point I was making was specifically toward the belief that at some point, availability of the A332 and 788 will be
43 GlobeEx : That sure is true. However, a 70% full A380 might be as efficient as a 100% full 744 (by the time some more improvements will be implemented). My poi
44 Astuteman : In my own convoluted way, I think I was agreeing with you... Rgds
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
A True 757 Replacement posted Fri Sep 16 2005 23:22:33 by FlyingHippo
SIAs 744 Replacement In The Future posted Sun Mar 11 2001 03:13:47 by 9V-SPJ
10-abreast A350 XWB -Airbus Proposal posted Mon May 19 2008 05:29:01 by Aviationbuff
Synergie Group To Order 10 X A350.. posted Wed Feb 13 2008 05:28:54 by Beaucaire
QF's Expansion Weighs A350 And 787-10 posted Mon Feb 4 2008 16:58:13 by Stitch
Ilfc Close To Ordering 10 A350's & 100+ A320's posted Thu Jan 17 2008 07:03:36 by WINGS
KL Replacement For Their 744's. posted Thu Sep 27 2007 10:10:24 by CV990
Thai Evaluating 787/A350 As A300 Replacement posted Wed May 30 2007 15:08:44 by EI321
FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge posted Mon Jan 29 2007 11:26:06 by RichardPrice
China Airlines To Order 10 747-8 Replace 343/744 posted Mon Dec 25 2006 03:12:16 by Jimyvr