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Visions Of Deserted Airports And Rotting Aircraft  
User currently offlineYak42 From Ireland, joined Oct 2000, 801 posts, RR: 6
Posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6525 times:

Recent news of record oil prices and bad US economic news and indicators are making me think of possible widespread ruin and appocalyptic times for the aviation industry if conditions get markedly more difficult for it.
Does anyone think it likely that deserted airports with fleets of parked rotting aircraft like Baghdad's will be a more common sight in the future as oil prices could stay high and a slowndown in the US economy could develop into a real recession?

14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineJmc1975 From Israel, joined Sep 2000, 3312 posts, RR: 15
Reply 1, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6446 times:

Yes, it will be far for likely than most people realize. Many airports will lose service altogether. In the next couple years, you may see a very simplified skeleton of the industry's existing route structure. Southwest could likely be one of the only airlines still flying, thus they will be in a prime position to enter markets that would not be considered in the current environment. Besides Southwest's current network, you will likely to see continued but reduced demand between the metropolises of New York, Los Angeles, Wash.DC, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, Miami, Dallas, Houston & Atlanta. The advantage of an industry collapse, however, would do away with heavy union influence which rewards inefficiency.


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User currently offlineUAL-Fan From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 374 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6399 times:

I live in San Diego and I am so happy they were never able to get the new Airport all of our Politico's and city Leaders seem to think we'll never be able to live without. I love SAN and now that service is actually being cut it doesn't appear that all of the predictions of Airport armegeddon there will come to fruition.

Personally I don't think it will ever go back to the way it was. I fly every week for business and we are seriously trying to come up with a way to not have to do that. It's too expensive, it's not reliable and the whole flying experience is just becoming too painful.


User currently offlineDL767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 6108 times:



Quoting UAL-Fan (Reply 2):
I live in San Diego and I am so happy they were never able to get the new Airport all of our Politico's and city Leaders seem to think we'll never be able to live without. I love SAN and now that service is actually being cut it doesn't appear that all of the predictions of Airport armegeddon there will come to fruition

I live in San Diego also and i'm really happy they didn't make a new airport. i don't know why we need it... if you want international travel just go up to LAX, if you want domestic just go out of SAN it's simple. Plus SAN is such a nice airport, nice and small and easy to get around.


User currently offlineSan747 From United States of America, joined exactly 10 years ago today! , 4965 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5754 times:



Quoting UAL-Fan (Reply 2):
I live in San Diego and I am so happy they were never able to get the new Airport all of our Politico's and city Leaders seem to think we'll never be able to live without. I love SAN and now that service is actually being cut it doesn't appear that all of the predictions of Airport armegeddon there will come to fruition.

Actually, if you look at the history and sequence of events of the whole "new SAN airport" debacle, you'll find the politicians and city leaders have been the biggest hindrance to progress being made.

And I don't know what SAN service is being cut, besides no more 767s on ATL-SAN and AA getting rid of BOS. Maybe a few frequencies are going down, but this is hardly indicative of a permanent longterm downturn.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 3):

I live in San Diego also and i'm really happy they didn't make a new airport. i don't know why we need it... if you want international travel just go up to LAX, if you want domestic just go out of SAN it's simple.

Because eventually you won't be able to just go to LAX. They have a passenger cap at 75 million and trust me, passenger levels WILL reach that point. Once San Diegans realize they can't just go to LAX anymore, they're gonna change their tune really quickly. Think of what SAN will be like if all the people who go to LAX can't anymore. A new airport will be needed. It's that simple.



Scotty doesn't know...
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8765 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5690 times:



Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 1):
Southwest could likely be one of the only airlines still flying, thus they will be in a prime position to enter markets that would not be considered in the current environment.

Talk about doomsday scenario. How about this, we will maintain 85% of our ASMs and most all of today's same markets. So, count me in for "nothing really changes."


User currently offlineDl757md From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1562 posts, RR: 17
Reply 6, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5653 times:



Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 1):
Southwest could likely be one of the only airlines still flying,



Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 1):
The advantage of an industry collapse, however, would do away with heavy union influence which rewards inefficiency.

WN is heavily unionized. Therefore these two statements seem to contradict. Would you care to elaborate?



757 Most beautiful airliner in the sky!
User currently offlineYAK42 From Ireland, joined Oct 2000, 801 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5581 times:



Quoting San747 (Reply 4):
Because eventually you won't be able to just go to LAX. They have a passenger cap at 75 million and trust me, passenger levels WILL reach that point.

Thats an optomistic view of growth when you consider prospects for the US economy and fuel prices.


User currently offlineCygnusChicago From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5444 times:



Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 1):
Many airports will lose service altogether. In the next couple years, you may see a very simplified skeleton of the industry's existing route structure.

Not quite. The airline industry is cyclical. In bad times, routes get cut; in good times, they come back. So, if it does get bad, yes, some areas may lose service. The RFDs, TUPs and others may soon find themselves carrier-less. But don't fear, as soon as the industry is profitable, someone is going to try to fly there again.



If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
User currently offlineManfredj From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 5022 times:



Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 1):
Yes, it will be far for likely than most people realize.



Quoting Yak42 (Thread starter):
Does anyone think it likely that deserted airports with fleets of parked rotting aircraft like Baghdad's

You forget to look back in history....these are somewhat naive outlooks.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 8):
Not quite. The airline industry is cyclical. In bad times, routes get cut; in good times, they come back.

Spot on. Can we stop acting like this is the only time we have had high fuel prices? The airline industry can be epitomized has periods of prosper followed by periods of peril. I'm not sure I belive people actually think that our industry will perish into nothing forever.



757: The last of the best
User currently offlineTockeyhockey From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 952 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 4987 times:



Quoting YAK42 (Reply 7):
WN is heavily unionized. Therefore these two statements seem to contradict. Would you care to elaborate?

just more unresearched and unsupported union bashing. par for the course on just about any airliners.net thread about the airlines and economics. corporate mismanagement, which steals away much much more than the unions could ever dream of, however, is not an acceptable topic.


User currently offlineXtoler From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 953 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 4782 times:

To compare Iraqi airline's plight to what US airlines' are going through now is comparing apples to oranges. Our's is a lot more to deal with the economy. Remember after Desert Storm, we and some of our allies restricted all Iraqi flights inside a zone within their own country. Not to mention, that even before 9/11 and even before our current administration (not to name names), we flew quite a few cruise missiles into the country. Iraq didn't have much of a chance to get their airlines up and running. Different scenario, than what the US is going through!


EMB145 F/A, F/E, J41 F/A, F/E, because my wife clipped my wings, armchair captain
User currently offlineContrails From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 1834 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 4754 times:



Quoting Manfredj (Reply 9):
Can we stop acting like this is the only time we have had high fuel prices?

I agree completely. There's too much gloom and doom out there. We'll get through this. There may be some changes, but some things need to change.



Flying Colors Forever!
User currently offlinePlunaaircanada From Canada, joined Jan 2007, 158 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 4339 times:



Quoting Contrails (Reply 12):


Quoting Manfredj (Reply 9):
Can we stop acting like this is the only time we have had high fuel prices?

I agree completely. There's too much gloom and doom out there. We'll get through this. There may be some changes, but some things need to change.

But I think now is worse than ever. Also a lot of countires that are developing really fast have a higher oil demand. So this is different than all the other sitautions.



(E)ngines (T)urning (O)r (P)assengers (S)wimming
User currently offlineJmc1975 From Israel, joined Sep 2000, 3312 posts, RR: 15
Reply 14, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 3937 times:



Quoting Dl757md (Reply 6):
Would you care to elaborate?

Not really...just read between the lines and don't take things out of context. Let's just watch it happen and we'll see how it plays out over the next couple of years.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 8):
The airline industry is cyclical. In bad times, routes get cut; in good times, they come back.

Yes, but this cycle will be like nothing else. After the collapse of the industry, be prepared to see an airline renaissance take shape.



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