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Impact Of NW PDX-AMS On LH PDX-FRA?  
User currently offlineAirnerd From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 263 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 4176 times:

So now that NW's PDX-AMS has been flying for a little while, I wonder what's the impact been on the Lufthansa flight to Frankfurt? These flights offer the traveler very similar connecting opportunities and many have speculated that Portland won't be able to support both. This economy isn't helping either.

Using the Port of Portland's statistics to calculate load factors on LH, it looks like they've taken a hit in April 08. It looks like 68% of seats occupied for that month. The previous April, they were at around 90% load factor.

Anyone have info on NW's loads on PDX-AMS? (I can't extract it from the Port data because they fly more than one type of aircraft on multiple routes.)

11 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineMl007 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 37 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 4108 times:

I cannot speak for the current situation, but I do know that the NW PDX-AMS flight got off to a rough start. They cancelled at least one flight within the first few weeks because only 40 pax showed up, and were subsequently re-booked on LH. I'd imagine NW is still in the building stage of the route, and it sure makes for a very interesting time to live in PDX and see the advertisements all over the place. Lufthansa has them during Trail Blazer games, on radio and TV (most recently during the Rose Festival), and at concert series, while Northwest has billboards up showing a kayak to windmill theme.

I also noticed that the last time I was down in the claim area, Nike had set up a welcome table for groups that looked semi-permanent - I wonder if their European headquarters in AMS is helping the yields out for NW, and cannibalizing LH because they used to fly them. Anyone else have any thoughts? I'd be really interested to hear too!

Edit: Also, I'm fairly certain that LH will be downgrading to a A330 for the winter schedule and possibly beyond (if it hasn't been announced yet it, it should be soon), as the SEA flight begins to take hold.

[Edited 2008-06-16 23:42:45]

User currently offlineLACA773 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 4065 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4085 times:
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I hope LH sticks it out on their FRA flights from PDX. They have a far superior service to LH and economically speaking wouldn't it make sense LH can better handle flying this route financially speaking.
Any word on the new SEA flights?


User currently offlineMl007 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 37 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4055 times:

I just had one other thought to add to the mix: I know that LH makes an absolute KILLING on cargo from PDX. As in, it is the highest yielding cargo destination LH serves, along with EZE. They have been running a monthly Cargolympics recently as a competition and PDX has been getting the gold or silver medals consistently. So even with low load factors with the seats, I'd be willing to wage that LH is making decent, if not great, returns on the route.

User currently offlineUN_B732 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 4289 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 3928 times:

Does NW still have a MAX train painted advertising Portland to Amsterdam? They did back in April; not sure if it got repainted..

-A



What now?
User currently offlineSeaBosDca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5854 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 3869 times:



Quoting Ml007 (Reply 1):
Edit: Also, I'm fairly certain that LH will be downgrading to a A330 for the winter schedule and possibly beyond (if it hasn't been announced yet it, it should be soon), as the SEA flight begins to take hold.



Quoting Ml007 (Reply 3):
I know that LH makes an absolute KILLING on cargo from PDX. As in, it is the highest yielding cargo destination LH serves, along with EZE.

An A330-300 can't carry much cargo on a 4542 nm flight. Is the A340-300 really so much more expensive to fly that the A330 would be more profitable despite losing the cargo revenue?


User currently offlineBlatantEcho From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1923 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 3679 times:

Load factors have gone down for LH year over year, but we don't have much more data than that.

I presume that the managers saw that adding FRA-SEA, and NW adding AMS-PDX, would impact their loads, and have that budgeted into the plan.


That said, I do hope the LH route continues to do well, and yields are not getting driven down too much by the NW flight.

I wish LH would offer some verbal or written update and commitment to the flight into the future, but airlines just don't do that.....

Long live the PDX-FRA flight, I hope to take it again this year.



They're not handing trophies out today
User currently offlineNwaesc From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 3408 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 3637 times:

Here's what NW92 has carried this past week... I didn't take the time to look up 91 (AMS-PDX).

6/11: 14/157 9848lbs. freight

6/12: 23/188 10333 lbs. freight

6/13: 24/209 6859 lbs. freight

6/14: 31/211 10735 lbs. freight

6/15: 27/211 150 lbs. freight

6/16: 32/211 3123 lbs. freight



"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9826 posts, RR: 52
Reply 8, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 3600 times:



Quoting Ml007 (Reply 1):
They cancelled at least one flight within the first few weeks because only 40 pax showed up, and were subsequently re-booked on LH.

I didn't think that an airline can do that. I don’t know if they can legally do that either. Usually cancelling is more expensive than operating the flight with no passengers. I highly doubt that they cancelled it due to poor loads. They more likely had a mechanical or operational related reason to cancel and people just perceived it as being cancelled due to poor loads.

Also why would they put people on LH's flight? They could more easily put people PDX-SEA-AMS or PDX-MSP-AMS which keeps them on NW metal. Yes LH and NW compete especially for feed throughout Europe, but AMS and FRA are in different countries afterall.

Quoting Ml007 (Reply 1):

Edit: Also, I'm fairly certain that LH will be downgrading to a A330 for the winter schedule and possibly beyond (if it hasn't been announced yet it, it should be soon), as the SEA flight begins to take hold.

Is an A330 really a downgrade? They have about the same capacity and to the passenger are virtually identical.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineLACA773 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 4065 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 3414 times:
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Quoting Nwaesc (Reply 7):
Here's what NW92 has carried this past week... I didn't take the time to look up 91 (AMS-PDX).

It looks like NW is doing well on their PDX-AMS flight. Good for them. I hope this market can sustain both LH & NW.


User currently offlineBOStonsox From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 1995 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 3351 times:

LH was in first, and I was surprised when I saw they served PDX. But the companies there have been able to subsidize it, so I guess they can make it. If it weren't for that, I would doubt PDX would work.


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User currently offlineLJ From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4477 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 3294 times:



Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 8):
I didn't think that an airline can do that. I don’t know if they can legally do that either. Usually cancelling is more expensive than operating the flight with no passengers. I highly doubt that they cancelled it due to poor loads. They more likely had a mechanical or operational related reason to cancel and people just perceived it as being cancelled due to poor loads.

Off course they can do it. Why not? If it´s not allowed they just say that there are "operational" problems. Futhermore paying the DBC and rerouting them is probaby cheaper than flying. DBC would be max EUR 24,000 (USD 37,200). The lost of cargo revenue can be recouped easily by shiftng it onto other flights (they now well in advance if a flight is "light").

BTW you only do this if you don´t get into operational problems (for example is AMS-PDX has a good load). Furthermore, you can´t do this regulary.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 8):
Also why would they put people on LH's flight? They could more easily put people PDX-SEA-AMS or PDX-MSP-AMS which keeps them on NW metal. Yes LH and NW compete especially for feed throughout Europe, but AMS and FRA are in different countries afterall.

If you want to keep your passengers happy you get them as soon as possible to their final destination. As most pax probably don´t have AMS as their final destination, it´s better to reroute them via FRA and pay a little bit extra then to fly them to AMS and then further on..


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