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JetBlue Won't Go To BOG  
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32191 posts, RR: 72
Posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5825 times:

I have it on good authority that JetBlue has decided that they will not be flying to Bogota after all, given a combination of high fuel prices and being a little too optimistic about the prospects of Orlando-Bogota.

JetBlue has joined in with other carriers in asking for a dormancy waiver for international route authorities; however Spirit has opposed such waiver and, while they have not applied specifically for the frequencies, wants JetBlue's frequencies (and Continental's unused CLO frequencies).

I have been told that if JetBlue cannot get a waiver, they are considering asking DOT to transfer the route authority to FLL-BOG. They don't want to lose the seven frequencies over the long-term, and FLL-BOG is more sustainable. However, they are of course worried about competition. Is three carriers on FLL-BOG really that good of an idea? I'm not to sure, and I don't think JetBlue is too sure either.

More new should come out in the next 5-10 days.


a.
49 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJetBluefan1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2937 posts, RR: 14
Reply 1, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5769 times:

Thanks for the update. MCO-BOG would be a very tough route to pull off if fuel was even half the price that it is now. JetBlue is being responsible by not investing even more in a route that would probably bleed cash in the current economic environment.

On that note, would Spirit really be interested in getting these frequencies? They too would face that same problems that JetBlue has.

JetBluefan1



Most people on a.net hate JetBlue. Get used to it.
User currently offlineDavescj From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 2292 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5760 times:

If Jet Blue was able to transfer to FLL, what effect on Spirit? I would think Jet Blue might do better all other things equal.

Dave



Can I have a mojito on this flight?
User currently offlineB6fll From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5671 times:

Oh boy let the B6 bashing begin...I do think that FLL would do better than MCO. I understand why B6 chose MCO because of the Customs situation here and Terminal 4 being a dump. We will see what happens. This will be tough competion if this route is transfered. NK is already established some what in South America. Only time will tell!

User currently onlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2889 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 5637 times:



Quoting B6fll (Reply 3):
I understand why B6 chose MCO because of the Customs situation here and Terminal 4 being a dump.

Is that the primary reason they applied with MCO over FLL? I would think there would be some traffic between Central Florida and Bogota, although not nearly as much as South Florida. I hope B6 makes this route work whether it is from MCO or FLL or elsewhere.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32191 posts, RR: 72
Reply 5, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 5622 times:

The market from South Florida to Colombia is over sixteen times the size of Orlando and a shorter stage length. It is a dense limited entry medium haul route that does not face the same problems. It can be done profitably at high fuel even though the fuel obviously bites into the profits.


a.
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 16948 posts, RR: 48
Reply 6, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 5622 times:

I don't think B6 had a hope in hell for BOGMCO; now if they had a plane and designation for BOGJFK, I think they could do quite well.


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineB752OS From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 5546 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 5):
The market from South Florida to Colombia is over sixteen times the size of Orlando and a shorter stage length. It is a dense limited entry medium haul route that does not face the same problems. It can be done profitably at high fuel even though the fuel obviously bites into the profits.

Just out of curiosity, what are the numbers like from South Florida to Columbia? Daily pax numbers?


User currently offlineHumberside From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2005, 4915 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 5515 times:

Any chance Avianca will look again at MCO?


Visit the Air Humberside Website and Forum
User currently offlineDanimarroquin From Colombia, joined Jan 2005, 449 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 5367 times:

Cmon Avianca is the Right opportunity to take over BOG-MCO . the good think is that AV had the route already approve so I hope they make there move soon .

User currently offlineSumma767 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 2520 posts, RR: 6
Reply 10, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 5345 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
I have it on good authority that JetBlue has decided that they will not be flying to Bogota after all

Thanks for sharing this news. I understand that jetBlue do not want to embark on a route that represents a risk at this time. However, I am disappointed, as I really would like to see real results -confident that the market would respond well.

jetBlue could try to ask for an extension as well as/or change of origin. But they could ask for a change in use altogether, and pre-empt Spirit on FLL-MDE. Couldn't they?
It would be a real shame if they let those 7 frequencies go.

BTW, Spirit is now selling tickets on its FLL-BOG. I checked for fares today for December, and was asked for US$ 700 return.


User currently offlineDFWEagle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1070 posts, RR: 9
Reply 11, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5269 times:



Quoting Summa767 (Reply 10):
jetBlue could try to ask for an extension as well as/or change of origin. But they could ask for a change in use altogether, and pre-empt Spirit on FLL-MDE. Couldn't they?
It would be a real shame if they let those 7 frequencies go.

They were awarded the frequencies specifically for MCO-BOG after a carrier selection proceeding which determined their specific proposal was in the best public interest for those frequencies.

Carriers certainly cannot apply for frequencies for one market and then when they are selected on the merits of that proposal, switch them to a different market.

They can ask, but every other carrier (especially NK, DL and AA) would surely oppose and demand that a completely new carrier selection proceeding occurs to re-allocate the frequencies.



Ryan / HKG
User currently offlineRichierich From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 4199 posts, RR: 6
Reply 12, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5227 times:



Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 11):
Carriers certainly cannot apply for frequencies for one market and then when they are selected on the merits of that proposal, switch them to a different market.

They can ask, but every other carrier (especially NK, DL and AA) would surely oppose and demand that a completely new carrier selection proceeding occurs to re-allocate the frequencies.

And of course, pulling out of a route that they specifically applied for will not look good if they need to apply for any future routes.



None shall pass!!!!
User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8092 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5186 times:
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Jet Blue should do what Jet Blue does, and Latin America isn't it. If they merged with Spirit then they would own FLL. TO go head to head with Spirit in FLL to Colombia would be suicide and for what ? JB is good at FLL for the New York and Boston thing.

User currently offlineBOStonsox From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 1973 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5133 times:

I know that FLL-BOG will do well. MCO-BOG would be an interesting route, however. B6 is going to get 10 gates at MCO making it a focus city/hublet the size of BOS (they have 11 gates in BOS). I guess they will have to expand their operations a bit more before starting that route. They would be able to feed a lot of pax at MCO. FLL has a lot of connections too, but I doubt it will ever get to be the size of BOS or MCO.


2013 World Series Champions!
User currently offlineElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1534 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5095 times:



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 6):
I don't think B6 had a hope in hell for BOGMCO; now if they had a plane and designation for BOGJFK, I think they could do quite well.

Designation doesn't matter all that much. You can move your frequencies between cities.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32191 posts, RR: 72
Reply 16, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5095 times:



Quoting BOStonsox (Reply 14):
I know that FLL-BOG will do well. MCO-BOG would be an interesting route, however. B6 is going to get 10 gates at MCO making it a focus city/hublet the size of BOS (they have 11 gates in BOS). I guess they will have to expand their operations a bit more before starting that route. They would be able to feed a lot of pax at MCO. FLL has a lot of connections too, but I doubt it will ever get to be the size of BOS or MCO.

JetBlue is roughly the same size at FLL as it is at MCO, and they serve more destinations on the mainland U.S. from FLL than they do from MCO. If JetBlue were to start flights south from Lauderdale, FLL provides more feed than Orlando does.

During the winter months, FLL is busier than MCO. During the summer, MCO takes the slight edge. The two stations are roughly the same size.

Orlando is suffering domestically, Fort Lauderdale isn't (MCO's domestic capacity is down 10%, FLL's is up 5%), and I expect that JetBlue will slow down at Orlando and cut like everybody else. FLL should remain pretty stagnant, minus possibly adding SJU/PIT/ROC/BTV.



a.
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32191 posts, RR: 72
Reply 17, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5072 times:



Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 15):
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 6):
I don't think B6 had a hope in hell for BOGMCO; now if they had a plane and designation for BOGJFK, I think they could do quite well.

Designation doesn't matter all that much. You can move your frequencies between cities.

Not anymore. Recently awarded frequencies to Colombia - including all the ones just awarded, CO's CLO frequencies from 2004, and AA's MDE frequencies from 2002, cannot be moved between cities.

If JetBlue wants to move MCO-BOG to JFK or FLL, they must ask. AA nor anybody else will likely contest, because it would sort of go against the whole international dormancy 2-year waiver application. What will likely happen, IMO:

1) Spirit will ask for the frequencies (and CO's CLO frequencies).
2) CO and B6 will say, "wait for the 2-year dormancy application to be decided on."
3) The 2-year dormancy application will be rejected (or approved with very strict limitations).
4) Spirit applies for the frequencies

At that point, then we'll see what comes into play. Will CO continue CLO? Will B6 say, "screw it, we want to keep the frequencies, let's fly MCO-BOG"? Will AA say, "hey, wait, we want frequencies too!"?

It'll be fun to watch.



a.
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8206 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 4939 times:

I am going to start applying for these routes personally. Then, I just won't serve the routes, and it will be awesome! I will be so famous, and everybody will want what I have. Of course, I will just use it as a tool to make the airline market less competitive. Who cares, it doesn't cost a thing.

User currently offlineBOStonsox From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 1973 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 4914 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 16):
JetBlue is roughly the same size at FLL as it is at MCO, and they serve more destinations on the mainland U.S. from FLL than they do from MCO. If JetBlue were to start flights south from Lauderdale, FLL provides more feed than Orlando does.

That is true, but B6 has signed a lease for 10 gates at MCO, and that is more than they have at FLL AFAIK. I don't know how much bigger they will be there, but they will be in a few years. When B6 opened their focus city in BOS they said they would have about 100 flights a day (and they are up to about 70 now, although I think they utilize all 11 of their gates). This leads be to believe that MCO will have up to 100 flights a day in the future (certainly at least 70). If they start FLL-BOG first, then I doubt they will want to add MCO-BOG unless the focus city is significantly larger.



2013 World Series Champions!
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32191 posts, RR: 72
Reply 20, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 4654 times:



Quoting BOStonsox (Reply 19):
That is true, but B6 has signed a lease for 10 gates at MCO, and that is more than they have at FLL AFAIK. I don't know how much bigger they will be there, but they will be in a few years. When B6 opened their focus city in BOS they said they would have about 100 flights a day (and they are up to about 70 now, although I think they utilize all 11 of their gates). This leads be to believe that MCO will have up to 100 flights a day in the future (certainly at least 70). If they start FLL-BOG first, then I doubt they will want to add MCO-BOG unless the focus city is significantly larger.

JetBlue has big plans for Fort Lauderdale including their own Concourse that will begin construction soon (although it is not as many gates as they want - so they might not even end up using it).

It will continue to be on par in size with Orlando's operations neither of which are very unlikely to ever reach 100 daily flights. Having lots of gates is nice but it is no defacto measurement of how big an operation can get. JetBlue, as is, does a good job of operating about the same amount of flights from Fort Lauderdale than from Orlando despite less gate space.

Let's also not forget how much things have changed since JetBlue's Orlando announcement. Since then, BOG is not happening, the crew lodge has been canceled, and the new routes to Cancun and Santo Domingo are not doing too hot.

Both operations will continue to grow at the same pace, and I truly doubt either will be larger than another, absent Spirit going under and JetBlue inevitably filling that gap.



a.
User currently offlineBOStonsox From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 1973 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4528 times:

I must've forgotten about that concourse. MCO will probably be used for O&D domestic flights more than connections, and FLL probably be used more for connecting to the Carribean. Why does B6 want two big focus cities in Florida and two big focus cities in the Northeast? You have to admit that it's an odd network.


2013 World Series Champions!
User currently offlineAbrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5014 posts, RR: 55
Reply 22, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4525 times:

Mark, thank you ... if this is true, I won a huge bet with a certain person. Remember, the HUGE discussion we had a month back on this  Smile?

Cheers,
A.



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineLambert747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4508 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
I have it on good authority that JetBlue has decided that they will not be flying to Bogota after all, given a combination of high fuel prices and being a little too optimistic about the prospects of Orlando-Bogota.

In a growing market such as Colombia there should be no excuse at this late of a stage to pull out. Fuel aside, rise the airfares to make a profit. I would think that Spirit among others will contest the Jet Blue decision. I am sure these frequencies are going to be eyed by a number of airlines.


User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8206 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4464 times:

The award was made substantially because MCO is a new market. Central Florida. By moving it south, JetBlue corrupts the very reason they got the award. Of course, the award needs to go back in, and JetBlue and Spirit can compete for it fair and square. JetBlue of course would have to face its history as a less-than-reliable organization. IMO it should go to Spirit, certainly not a non-compete JetBlue award.

I bet the govt is mighty pissed that suddenly all the airlines are whining and demanding protections that will simply bury route permissions in some sort of cemetery.


25 JetBlueAtJFK : No it's because when jetBlue first applied for the route they thought maybe they can pull it off but as oil rises and rises they came to the final rea
26 JetBluefan1 : What? Since when does calling off a couple of routes qualify an airline as a less-than-reliable organization? Every airline does this - especially wh
27 Miaami : Im sure AA will try and contest any changes to the B6 route authority from MCO. Can AA try to get the authority back for themselves?
28 MAH4546 : That would go against the point. Why connect passengers when they can make more money focusing on the large local market? If it weren't for Spirit, t
29 Lambert747 : There should not be a problem. The question is what route would American Airlines start to use these new suddenly released frequencies that would hav
30 MAH4546 : Just to clairfy what I posted, people are correct: JetBlue cannot just transfer the authority to FLL. If they want to go to Bogota from FLL, they wou
31 BOStonsox : Well, if you are trying to build a national network, those cities are out of your way. They aren't bad if your going international, but not domestic.
32 InTheSky74 : MCO-CUN is doing very well. In fact, they are upgrading it to an A320 because it is exceeding expectations.
33 InTheSky74 : What is B6 asks to have the authority allow a stop in FLL? Maybe operate MCO-FLL-BOG and BOG-FLL-MCO? Granted, they would have to clear customs in FLL
34 MAH4546 : That's true. I've heard otherwise, but to each his own. The fact that it is upgrading to an A320 is not an absolute indication that it is doing stell
35 RCS763AV : Its ColOmbia. I dont have pax numbers, but the tota numberl flights from Colombia to South Florida a day is 15. The only one of those that would work
36 SJOtoLIR : Related to South America, they only fly to LIM and CTG for the time being. The rest of their Latin American destinations are geographically placed in
37 MaverickM11 : In related news it looks like AA has dropped BAQMIA
38 Summa767 : Really? I know that loads have been bad, but will they just give it on a plate to Spirit?
39 MAH4546 : That's too bad. I know it was being reduced to 4x weekly for the fall period only, but seeing it's being suspended shows how bad the fuel situation i
40 A300AA : Yes, loads are very low. Rumors that BAQ will close again seems to be true. Maybe they will re locate some additional frequencies to CLO , now that CO
41 MAH4546 : BAQ is open skies so there are no frequencies to reallocate. That is why AA can suspend it without having to worry about giving something up.
42 Post contains links MAH4546 : Orlando Sentinel article: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/busin...l-jetblue2008jun20,0,5127884.story Surprise, surprise. Even at $100 fuel it wouldn't
43 Summa767 : There is no development on the news linked above, just the header. Have the Orlando Sentinel "pulled" the piece, or have they just bothered to add any
44 DeltaL1011man : And I would think that US and DL (who also wanted CLO frequencies) will jump on it. I hope it gets shoot down. Where else could they fly from and mak
45 MaverickM11 : It's within the range but the high altitude at BOG would make the northbound trip very difficult with a full load. BOGJFK would be great for B6, but
46 MAH4546 : Not at today's fuel. They aren't going to waste their time. Spirit is probably the only one that will apply for them. In fact, if DL, AA, or US apply
47 DFWEagle : If Spirit applies for Colombia frequencies, I would be shocked if AA does not contest it and put in a competing application. I agree that they don’
48 MAH4546 : AA has more important things to worry about right now. They are even suspending BAQ as fuel gets too high. Though I wouldn't rule it out entirely. No
49 DeltaL1011man : Wasn't it ATL-CLO 3x weekly and ATL-somewhere else 4x weekly?
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