Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
What Would The Future Of CLT Look Like Without US?  
User currently offlineIronDuke08 From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 117 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5612 times:

With the outlook for US somewhat uncertain, (I know a lot of people will disagree) I was wondering what the future would hold for CLT if something were to happen to US.

I read on another site that WN was considering "going for the kill" by trying to move in to CLT. How viable is this prospect? Where would they serve?

What sort of routes would CLT keep without the US presence? DL, the only carrier remotely committed to CLT has just announced the termination of the SLC-CLT route.

I'd like to think that at the very least CLT might be able to keep a LH flight for the myriad of German business interests in the region.

Would another airline like UA try to set up a hub or focus city operation to pick up the debris or would DL simply increase their presence in the SE markets vacated by US?

41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2124 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5602 times:

If US went out of business and WN moved in, the people of CLT would lose a lot of service. Fares might go down but so would the options. It would also prevent any other airline from coming in and building it up for themselves.

User currently offlineA/c dxer From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 416 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5588 times:

Besides losing alot of jobs in the Charlotte area it would probably be better. Southwest would come in but you would probably have Continental come in also. They would lose some service but I don't think they would everything probably would still be a hub for a airline.

User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9666 posts, RR: 52
Reply 3, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5542 times:

I think US makes a hub in CLT that is a bit bigger than the market necessarily needs. However CLT does deserve a dominant carrier. It is a growing financial capital in the United States. It is inexpensive for businesses to grow. It has a fair number of companies willing to pay for nonstop service.

If US left CLT, then I think there would be a dominant carrier. It would probably be like RDU, BNA or IND. There is a legacy carrier in each of those markets that is most dominant and attractive to business travelers. CLT will need a carrier like that even if US dehubs it.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineWhappeh From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1563 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5526 times:



Quoting A/c dxer (Reply 2):
Besides losing alot of jobs in the Charlotte area it would probably be better.

That makes all the sense in the world.

Hey guys, if you cut off both your arms and one of your legs, in the long run, you'll be much better.  Yeah sure



-Travel now, journey infinitely.
User currently offlineDeltaAVL From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1893 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5522 times:

Are you serious?

Like, honestly?

US isn't going anywhere.  Wink



"We break, We bend, With hand in hand, When hope is gone, Just hang on." -Guster
User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11752 posts, RR: 62
Reply 6, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5490 times:

Charlotte would not be without large amounts of air service for long - it is too large and strong a market to be simply ignored.

Now, what isn't a sure thing is that a USAirways departure would be replaced with another hub presence - that is definitely not a definite. While I think that ideally there several U.S. carriers would be interested in hubbing in Charlotte - AA and United at the top of the list - I am not sure if any airline today would be able to pull together the resources necessary in time to fend off incursions into the Charlotte market by a low-fare carrier, which would render many of the economic benefits of the hub useless.

Charlotte is a great airport, serving a great and growing city/metro and state, and a great and growing region.

Charlotte is definitely never going to have to worry about attracting lots of air service - USAirways or no USAirways.


User currently offlineIronDuke08 From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 117 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5489 times:



Quoting DeltaAVL (Reply 5):
Are you serious?

Like, honestly?

US isn't going anywhere.  

My dream is CLT-LGA, on DL 757s...that'll be the day, but I'm not holding my breath.

It's actually hard for me to think of what CLT would be like without a hub there and what service it would actually have. CLT has been a hub my entire life, first with Piedmont and then USAir and US Airways.

Do you think we'd still have transcons?


User currently offlineWhappeh From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1563 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5489 times:



Quoting IronDuke08 (Reply 7):
Do you think we'd still have transcons?

If that ever does happen, probably to LA.. but even then I'd say its a slim shot. With out US, CLT is nothing.



-Travel now, journey infinitely.
User currently offlineRL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4694 posts, RR: 11
Reply 9, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5452 times:

CLT without being a US hub = RDU


Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlineA/c dxer From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 416 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5403 times:



Quoting Whappeh (Reply 4):
That makes all the sense in the world.

Hey guys, if you cut off both your arms and one of your legs, in the long run, you'll be much better.

Well it does since CLT is where alot of the maintenance and training facility is. The pilot and f/a jobs would be replaced by the next carrier but the maintenance facility would be cut way back and training facility would be gone. Guess I should have clarified it in my first post.  Smile I still would think CLT would still be a major player.


User currently offlineFlynavy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 5249 times:



Quoting DeltaAVL (Reply 5):
Are you serious?

Like, honestly?

US isn't going anywhere.

Oh yeah? Can you predict the future now?  Yeah sure

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 9):
CLT without being a US hub = RDU

 checkmark 


User currently offlineFlyer62 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 128 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 5216 times:

bring back the original piedmont! Usair had no business taking them over! should have been the other way aroundas Piedmont was a much better carrier than Usair or UsAirways! Piedmont had a big hub and spoke at CLT

User currently offlineMSYPI7185 From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 710 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 5147 times:

CLT would in no way be anything like it is now. I worked for PI and US in MSY and CLT.

After the US bought PI it took many years for many people to get over it, including the media. Things were going poorly after the merger and the media never missed a beat ripping US apart and hoping that US would fail and someone else would come in and set up a hub. The media even went as far as going to DL. UA, and AA IIRC and talked to them about this possibility.
When it became obvious that it would never happen attitudes began to change.

CLT would at best mirror RDU if US fails. Also the main key to the growth in CLT was the fact that PI had a hub there and US maintained it after the merger. CLT never was a large OD market to speak of. I do not know that the latest figures are, but shortly before I took an early out package 3 yrs ago, about 14 of every 100 pax were OD.

If you take todays climate in to consideration, it would be even less likely that anyone would have a large operation there.

 twocents 

MD


User currently offlinePITops From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1442 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5085 times:

CLT without US = PIT


Ground Ops, Southwest Airlines, CMH
User currently offlineDL Widget Head From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2100 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5067 times:



Quoting IronDuke08 (Thread starter):
What Would The Future Of CLT Look Like Without US?

Probably something like this:


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Jeremy Irish - V1 Aviation Photography



User currently offlineVega From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5034 times:

US's significant feed into CLT is what makes it a Hub. CLT has essentially the same Domestic O&D as PIT and nearly 70% of all airport passengers are connecting. Consequently, unless another airline was willing to provide similar feed (unlikely), it would be nearly impossible to produce a profitable hub, even with the (low) Landing Fee consideration. Even if US was sold in pieces, I'm not certain how a meaningful "package" could be presented which focused on CLT, without including a major portion of US's network. On the other hand, if WN swooped in (if US left) and decided to established a Southeast hub like presence at CLT, I'd bet that DL would not sit idly by and watch.

Without US's alliance feed, I'm also afraid LH would drop it's MUC flight to seasonal or altogether - unless the Banking industry subsidized it.


User currently offlineDL Widget Head From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2100 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 5000 times:



Quoting Vega (Reply 16):
if WN swooped in (if US left) and decided to established a Southeast hub like presence at CLT, I'd bet that DL would not sit idly by and watch.

How do you think DL would respond?


User currently offlineDaCubbyBearBar From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 76 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 4 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 4999 times:



Quoting IronDuke08 (Thread starter):
I read on another site that WN was considering "going for the kill" by trying to move in to CLT. How viable is this prospect?

It is kind of hard to "go for the kill" at an airport where there are no gates available. I do not believe that SWA is going to any new cities until 2010 unless something BIG happens.



Go Cubs Go Hey Chicago whaddya say the Cubs are gonna win today
User currently offlineA340Crew From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 278 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (6 years 4 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 4781 times:

W/O US CLT would be what MYR is

User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5472 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (6 years 4 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4705 times:



Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 9):
CLT without being a US hub = RDU



Quoting MSYPI7185 (Reply 13):
CLT would at best mirror RDU if US fails.

 checkmark  I agree completely with you folks. I can't see any reason that CLT would be any more than most mid-sized, non-hub cities -- essentially a spoke connected to everybody's hubs.
From Eclat Consulting's "Top 200 U.S. Airports Ranked by Domestic O&D Traffic" (Y/E 3/2007):

Ranked #36 - Charlotte (CLT) 8,395,280 Domestic O&D Pax

Compare this with SAN (ranked 19 on the same list with 15.5M O&D pax) as another non-hub city, which, for every legacy carrier (and most others as well) serving it, is simply a spoke with service pretty much consisting of hub-bound flights. Period. The only real P-2-P service out of Lindbergh Field is by WN, B6 and XE.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 6):
While I think that ideally there several U.S. carriers would be interested in hubbing in Charlotte - AA and United at the top of the list

UA with an up-and-running hub at Dulles, and AA with failed hubs at both BNA and RDU? I disagree; I really don't see anyone (even in healthy economic times) being interested in hubbing at Charlotte.

In fact, I would suspect the situation would be similar to CMH -- we haven't seen a line forming there by those cx interested in taking over the hub that skybus left in its wake... And of course the PIT comparisons have already been drawn (but I think things are much rosier in CLT these days than in the Steel City, but still...)

bb


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33042 posts, RR: 71
Reply 21, posted (6 years 4 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 4684 times:



Quoting SANFan (Reply 20):

UA with an up-and-running hub at Dulles, and AA with failed hubs at both BNA and RDU? I disagree; I really don't see anyone (even in healthy economic times) being interested in hubbing at Charlotte.

AA would absolutely kill to have the Charlotte hub.

In addition to giving them a domestic Southeast hub, it would greatly allow them to expand on the East Coast to cater to much wider market. For example, AA is useless for Providence-Raleigh traffic, but a CLT hub can change that.

It would also open up new stations to connect to Miami, Dallas, and Chicago.

Asheville could probably support a daily ERJ each to Miami and Dallas, but opening up a station for just those two flights would be pointless and AA would still be offering Asheville customers limited connecting possibilities geographically. Add in Charlotte, and the fixed cost of the station spread across, plus not only can AA cater to AVL-Caribbean and AVL-West Coast, but also AVL-East Coast and AVL-Midwest.



a.
User currently offlineB752OS From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (6 years 4 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 4669 times:



Quoting DL Widget Head (Reply 17):


Quoting Vega (Reply 16):
if WN swooped in (if US left) and decided to established a Southeast hub like presence at CLT, I'd bet that DL would not sit idly by and watch.

How do you think DL would respond?

Why would DL do anything? They already have their mega hub at ATL and depending on what they do at MEM, would have 2 hubs in the region, no need to a 3rd.


User currently offlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6775 posts, RR: 17
Reply 23, posted (6 years 4 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 4640 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 21):
AA would absolutely kill to have the Charlotte hub.

That's interesting.. AA had the RDU hub space until 2005. Then they sold it to RDU to get a cash infusion. But now they would kill to have CLT as a hub.. only 3 years later. So, when they had the opportunity to have 20 gates at RDU and restart a hub on a terminal that they already owned with a station with huge AA loyalty, they would not do it. But now they would be interested in having a hub 2 hours down the road that doesn't have the loyalty and take on something like 60 gates? I hear what you are saying Mark, but something just don't sound right here. I know this is the hypothetical AA taking over US idea, but I don't know if I can get on your bandwagon here. AA could have restarted RDU. AA could STILL restart BNA (as they have gate space available there)..

I would have to bet on the CLT = RDU ticket. The AA swoop in to take CLT I just can't see happening, no offense..



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33042 posts, RR: 71
Reply 24, posted (6 years 4 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 4633 times:

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 23):
That's interesting.. AA had the RDU hub space until 2005. Then they sold it to RDU to get a cash infusion. But now they would kill to have CLT as a hub.. only 3 years later. So, when they had the opportunity to have 20 gates at RDU and restart a hub on a terminal that they already owned with a station with huge AA loyalty, they would not do it. But now they would be interested in having a hub 2 hours down the road that doesn't have the loyalty and take on something like 60 gates? I hear what you are saying Mark, but something just don't sound right here. I know this is the hypothetical AA taking over US idea, but I don't know if I can get on your bandwagon here. AA could have restarted RDU. AA could STILL restart BNA (as they have gate space available there)..

AA doesn't want to re-start RDU.

If they were to acquire the US Airways hub everything is there for them - the hub, the facilities, the flights, the routes, and the customers.

Huge difference between building up a hub and acquiring one that is already built up.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 23):

I would have to bet on the CLT = RDU ticket. The AA swoop in to take CLT I just can't see happening, no offense..

Probably not at today's fuel, but a year ago, it would have been likely.

Though, even still, as bad as things are right now, if US Airways gets into deeper trouble, the CLT hub is too valuable an asset for an airline like AA or UA to pass up if they can get it for cheap.

[Edited 2008-06-22 18:44:29]


a.
25 BHMBAGLOCK : They've done nothing but pull back in the past when WN came in, i.e. MCO, TPA, BHM, etc. Why would this be any different? I agree that it would work
26 Commavia : Neither hub was large enough to sustain itself after the go-go 1980s, and the two hubs were too close to each other and were competing with each othe
27 PITrules : I disagree. As a high fare fortress hub, CLT's 8.4 million O&D is still higher than PIT's 7.5 million; and PIT is a low fare airport. Imagine what CL
28 EXAAUADL : Given something like 80% of the traffic in CLT is connect, one other question is what would ATL look like?
29 Xtoler : It is a shame about PIT, but CLT is still an up and coming city of business. When I was still working construction, one of the engineering firms I wor
30 EXAAUADL : They, like BNA, would lose service to cities that no one from CLT flies to...ie GSO, RDU, AVL, AGS, etc....They wouldnt lose service to cities that a
31 AT777 : If US does go under I don't think CLT will be without service for long. They are adding a new runway and just saw that they are adding two new fuel ta
32 RDUDDJI : Yes. Definitely CLT-SFO (BoA, yo!), and LAX Probably DEN if US remains a STAR member...or even if not. LAS and PHX would be tossups, too hard to say,
33 Maverick747 : Looking at the list, I can't believe LAS tops it. I understand LAS has lot's of O/D, but greater than LAX,ORD, JFK??
34 Cltguy : If US were to go bankrupt and no other carrier came in to take over the hub then I could see Concourse E being closed and saved for future expansion.
35 ERJ170 : 60 gates is a lot. I could see maybe 40 being used.. the others being mothballed for future expansion. Maybe in the future if oil goes down below $60
36 RDUDDJI : I haven't seen the list, but if we are talking single airport demand, this is not surprising. CHI, LA, and NYC all have multiple airports in their re
37 BHMBAGLOCK : We have non-stops to both in BHM. No way will CLT end up without either of these.
38 CV880 : So 5x757 to ATL instead....in Sept.
39 EXAAUADL : As a side note: I have OAGs from 1973, 1979 and 1982. In 1973 CLT had 85 weekday departures: 2 daily EA DC-8s, a couple of DL DC-8s, two daily DL CV-8
40 ScottB : CLT as a hub only holds value in the short to medium term as a going concern; i.e. with service to its various spokes being operated more-or-less con
41 Cubsrule : Interesting analysis, given that Pittsburgh is much larger than Charlotte. It really says something about the viability of the Charlotte market. Anot
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
What Would A Possible DL/NW Merger Look Like? posted Fri Oct 19 2007 23:00:40 by Jrlander
What Is The Future Of Meigs Field? posted Mon May 21 2007 21:49:55 by Alberchico
What Is The Future Of DCA? posted Tue Apr 4 2006 19:04:48 by KDCA
What Is The Future Of FWA? posted Tue Jan 31 2006 14:19:34 by SmithAir747
What Is The Future Of FWA? posted Fri May 20 2005 11:12:28 by SmithAir747
What Is The Future Of Russian Airliners. posted Sat Apr 23 2005 20:11:23 by Georgiabill
What Will The Next Boeing/Airbus Look Like? posted Sat Feb 19 2005 22:10:48 by AirWillie6475
What Will The Future Of Freighters Be? posted Sun Oct 31 2004 07:50:06 by Ktachiya
What Will The New Iraqi Airways Look Like? posted Fri Feb 13 2004 20:40:01 by MEA321
What Is The Future Of Gulf Air? posted Fri Dec 26 2003 15:07:11 by AF022