CARST From Germany, joined Jul 2006, 705 posts, RR: 1 Posted (4 years 10 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 11240 times:
Hello.
When will the 747-8 production start? As the first 748F is due to be delivered in 2009 Boeing shouldn't be to far away from starting production as there have to be some flight testing for this new 747 model.
Any news on this topic? When will we get the first shots from the assembly line?
Zeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 7725 posts, RR: 73 Reply 2, posted (4 years 10 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 11049 times:
In a flight international article in the 17-23 June edition Boeing apparently has just past the 75% design release for the 748, and expects that to reach 90% by August.
They went on to say that that initial they were going to have the 744/748 being produced at the same time, now they have had a rethink, and the 748 will be delayed until the 744 line is finished.
They expect the last 744 to come off the line in Q2 2009, and first 748 after that.
Takes about 5 months now to build a 744, to make the 748 they will need to reorganize the factory somewhat to accommodate the larger/heavier aircraft. They will need new jigs etc be put into place.
I would think around sept/oct the will have finished with the half that does the forward fuselage section for the 744, and the will be able to reorganize that, that is the side where I saw them putting together the new spar jig. I don't expect that to be an overnight process, they may not start making the forward fuselage until early next year (this is all my guessing)
The other side where the do the wings, wing body join etc I think needs a fair bit more reorganization, I would again see some time from the last 744 coming out of the wing body join until the 748 starts appearing, they will need time to reorganize that side as well, that is also where the do the electrical fit out, and the cockpit.
I would expect a few months to pass between the last 744, and first 748.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
OldAeroGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3206 posts, RR: 66 Reply 6, posted (4 years 10 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 10791 times:
Quoting Zeke (Reply 2): They expect the last 744 to come off the line in Q2 2009, and first 748 after that.
Quoting CARST (Reply 5): So this could mean there won't be any pictures before Q3 2009... too bad.
I think you'll see some pictures before Q3 2009. The article cited above indicates roll-out in the first half of 2009. I believe it will be around mid-Q2 2009.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
Frigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1195 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (4 years 10 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 10639 times:
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 6): I think you'll see some pictures before Q3 2009. The article cited above indicates roll-out in the first half of 2009. I believe it will be around mid-Q2 2009.
Which means that first flight will most likely be not before summer 2009. If they intend to deliver the first 748 to Cargolux at the end of this year, the test flight schedule is going to be mighty short... Almost unrealistically short IMO. Considering the 787 test flights will be in full flow in the second half of 2009 too, it would be realistic to expect EIS of the 748 early in Q2 2010.
I will be to proven wrong though... We've seen too many delays with new airplanes as it is
Tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80 Reply 9, posted (4 years 10 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 10592 times:
Quoting CARST (Reply 3): Yes, i read that in older threads here, but i wonder when will they start to put the first fuselage parts together?
I'd be very surprised if they haven't already. Fuselage skins are a long-lead item.
Quoting CARST (Reply 3): Compared to the 787 programm we had pictures there much earlier...
True, but the 787 had to spend a lot longer in the factory than the 747-8 should need to.
Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 8): If they intend to deliver the first 748 to Cargolux at the end of this year, the test flight schedule is going to be mighty short..
Flight test for derivatives is much shorter than new types.
Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 8): Almost unrealistically short IMO. Considering the 787 test flights will be in full flow in the second half of 2009 too, it would be realistic to expect EIS of the 748 early in Q2 2010.
Don't forget that, under the original schedules, the 777F, 787, and 747-8 could have all ended up in flight test at the same time. So it looks like Boeing flight test is actually not having to work as hard as they must have been planning for.
Frigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1195 posts, RR: 1 Reply 10, posted (4 years 10 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 10427 times:
Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 9): Flight test for derivatives is much shorter than new types.
True, but doesn't the 747-8 have much more new features over its predecessor than the 747-400 had? Redesigned wings, new avionics, partial FBW, longer fuselage... The 744 needed 9 months from first flight till EIS, and while I realise flight testing procedures have improved since then, 6 months would be about the same test schedule as the 777F - which is basically the same as the already proven 77L.
Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 9): Don't forget that, under the original schedules, the 777F, 787, and 747-8 could have all ended up in flight test at the same time. So it looks like Boeing flight test is actually not having to work as hard as they must have been planning for.
Maybe the GE-powered 787 and 777F or 777F/747-8 test schedules could have overlapped a little, but I don't think Boeing planned to have 3 models in test flight at the same time...
Rheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1956 posts, RR: 52 Reply 12, posted (4 years 10 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 10171 times:
Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 10): Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 9):
Don't forget that, under the original schedules, the 777F, 787, and 747-8 could have all ended up in flight test at the same time. So it looks like Boeing flight test is actually not having to work as hard as they must have been planning for.
Maybe the GE-powered 787 and 777F or 777F/747-8 test schedules could have overlapped a little, but I don't think Boeing planned to have 3 models in test flight at the same time...
"Boeing is poised to start tests of the 777 Freighter using a redesigned, centralized flight test approach in preparation for an unprecedented surge of new and derivative models including the 787, 747-8 and 767-200 Special Freighter."
Tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80 Reply 13, posted (4 years 10 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 10124 times:
Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 10): True, but doesn't the 747-8 have much more new features over its predecessor than the 747-400 had? Redesigned wings, new avionics, partial FBW, longer fuselage...
The 747-400 was a huge systems overhaul from the 747-classic...I suspect the delta was bigger there than to the 747-8, but you might be right...I haven't seen a direct side-by-side comparison.
Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 10): The 744 needed 9 months from first flight till EIS, and while I realise flight testing procedures have improved since then, 6 months would be about the same test schedule as the 777F - which is basically the same as the already proven 77L.
The 744 flight test was one of the rockiest in Boeing history...they had *huge* issues getting all the systems to talk to each other. 744 probably could have been 6 months if had actually gone well.
Jbernie From Australia, joined Jan 2007, 880 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (4 years 10 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 10100 times:
Is Boeing able to pre build some of the structures for the last 744s in advance so they can start reorganizing the factory setup a bit earlier in preperation for the 748?
IF they could would there be any benefits in doing so?
Thanks very much for the link. Very interesting read. It seems to me that Boeing has organised their test fleet in a way like they're running a small airline.
Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 13): The 744 flight test was one of the rockiest in Boeing history...they had *huge* issues getting all the systems to talk to each other. 744 probably could have been 6 months if had actually gone well.
Now that you mentioned it, yes, that's correct. Let's hope the 748 won't have these (or any other) complications like the 744 had. Then it still may EIS on schedule
If it does, and if Boeing can get flight testing of the 787 perhaps even ahead if the revised schedule, they will surely restore a good deal of the goodwill they lost with all the delays of that program. The article Rheinbote provided does give me hope in that regard...
Kanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2467 posts, RR: 21 Reply 17, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 8750 times:
The first thing you will see is the loading of the wing front spar... that's traditionally the start of assembly and Boeing makes a big production of that date. The body section skin panels are built elsewhere at subcontractors and that work will begin about the same time. Remember there may also be retooling at the subs. The skin panels start arriving by rail 7-8 weeks before roll out. Boeing will be upgrading the assembly/installation process to cut even more flow. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LCFs involved in the component delivery process to cut rail time.
Boeing will not be having he contractors stuff the section like they are with the 787 although the may push some details further down the pipeline. Landing gear will be delivered installation ready (which has a 700 plus day lead time from the material casting) and is probably already into the machining mode
PlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4539 posts, RR: 28 Reply 18, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 8652 times:
How ya doing Solnabo?
Quoting Solnabo (Reply 16): Personly I strongly doubt LH gonna take the 748I version (20 + 20) Doubt they´ll build 20+ a/c´s just for one carrrier
You never know, but LH seems to be sticking by their decision. Time will tell...
Quoting Solnabo (Reply 16): I mean why?? Some bunk beds on top.....c´moon.
Now you're being silly.
Quoting Solnabo (Reply 16): The 748F will do much better....maybe.
Tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80 Reply 19, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 7690 times:
Quoting Solnabo (Reply 16): Personly I strongly doubt LH gonna take the 748I version (20 + 20) Doubt they´ll build 20+ a/c´s just for one carrrier
Why? Boeing has said they'll build it, LH has said they want it, engineering is mostly done...seems like we're a little too pregnant to bail out now, especially when everyone wants the baby.
LH needs a new widebody, they think the aircraft does what they need, and I'm sure they got a very nice price for being the launch customer.
Quoting Solnabo (Reply 16):
There´s no other carrier interested in the model as far I know.
Well, the BBJ folks have already taken several. Plus Boeing has disclosed at least seven (maybe eight?) sales campaigns that appear to be promising. So there's definitely interest...whether that converts to orders is another question.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26701 posts, RR: 83 Reply 20, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 7304 times:
It is surprising just how badly the 747-8I sticks in the craw of some Airbus supporters. And it annoys them even more that they cannot dismiss LH as a third-rate hack airline because, of course, they also bought the A380-800 which automatically makes them a member of the "best airlines" club.
Alessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 22, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 6755 times:
Quoting Solnabo (Reply 16): Personly I strongly doubt LH gonna take the 748I version (20 + 20) Doubt they´ll build 20+ a/c´s just for one carrrier
I mean why?? Some bunk beds on top.....c´moon.
There´s no other carrier interested in the model as far I know.
The 748F will do much better....maybe.
Just my
//Micke
[Edited 2008-06-29 14:33:40]
I think Boeing must consider themselves lucky that the B748 hasn´t sold better, big money
in compensation will be payed out for the B787, add B748 delays and it certainly going to
put a strain on the company.
Babybus From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 3512 posts, RR: 6 Reply 24, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 6317 times:
Quoting Iwok (Reply 23): Aren't there 30 -1i models on order from LH plus several VIP customers?
That still doesn't make it sound the most popular aircraft in the world, does it?
If I were Boeing I'd brush this one aside and concentrate on the 787. They are losing stacks of money on that one and it won't look good on the books.
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
25 Propjett: Isn't it about time for the Air Force to start thinking about replacement for the two 747's that play the role of Air Force 1? The 707's were delivere
26 Parapente: I have a feeling that if one is to hear any "major" announcement regarding the 748i it will be at Farnbrough. There are experts on this forum who unde
27 Bringiton: How are they loosing stacks of money ? Have you done an evaluation of the total cost to develop the 748I and 748F ? And do you know of profit margins
29 Scbriml: Not firm yet, an LOI for 3 was signed in May.
30 Stitch: That same argument could be used against the A380-800, which could have been canceled four years ago and Airbus could concentrate on building the wha
31 Keesje: Lets hope the FAA has changed into a cooperative enterprise willing to take additional risks and joining in flight testing renewal while certifying 3
32 Vald: WHOS everyone? lufthansa, cargolux a handful of others. the A340 - 500 & 600 are not flying off the shelves & to be fair A380 is just doing okay but
33 Solnabo: Dont you mean "bigheaded" instead of pregnant? Micke//
34 PlanesNTrains: Apparently the folks building it and the folks ordering it. To be simplistic (I know that there is more to it, but for the purposes of this post) - I
35 Vald: thats not everybody, as the folks building it, remember the MD11 folks, everybody wanted that plane, not & that company went under. Im trying to reme
36 PlanesNTrains: I think you are taking the original statement too literally. He clearly was referring to the involved parties, and not the industry as a whole. Perha
37 Brons2: The 748 does not need 180-200 sales to break even. It is a DERIVATIVE, not a new program. If they make all the frames they have sold, it will probably
38 Tdscanuck: Why? The derivative is almost certainly profitable on the 748F alone and the 787 appears to be mostly over the hump...I suspect there's more people w
39 Stitch: That was the original figure before Airbus began production. As of now, it's about twice that many. The highest cost figures for the 747-8 program ar
40 Propjett: Is there a thread that discusses the upgrades and improvements? Just curious. And I agree with you that the aircraft are not anywhere near end of the
41 Worldrider: and what if they are making $15m per frame? where are u getting that 25 p/ frame minimum figure?
42 Keesje: The last passenger 747 sold before LH was I think 6 yrs ago. The rest have been freighters The 747-8i will have an all new interior, upperdeck structu
43 Parapente: Absolutly. We now know that there is going to be no "super 787-10". Furthermore the (above) article clearly (twice) refers to upgrading the existing 7
44 Stitch: As to Lufthansa, for all the people who claim they bent Boeing over a barrel on the 747-8I, if they are getting these planes at such a great deal, why
45 Kanban: US government cannot replace the current presidental planes with 747-8i because of a requirement that it must have x ( I think it's in the 7-10 range)
46 Ozair: No 744s will be sold or produced except what is already on order. It's the 748 or nothing. Your logic as usual is spot-on. This argument on anet flip
47 Vald: okay stop! im not going to quote a ton of text that that doesn't share my view, but if ALL the currant 4 engine aircraft on sale TODAY are not selling
48 Astuteman: It's equally a surprise just how badly the A380 sticks in the craw of some Boeing supporters. After all, it is only there for "Golf-course bragging r
49 Zvezda: You're the only one who has asserted that golf course bragging rights are the only reason why Airbus built the WhaleJet rather than the A305. Most pe
50 Astuteman: The wink at the end of the sentence meant something. It wasn't worth taking to heart. Honestly. Oh and by the way, I have NEVER, ever, asserted that
51 Scbriml: While Astuteman's "golf course" phrase was a joke , there are plenty of members on this site that have effectively claimed just that. Hubris is the w
52 Stitch: Quite true. Up until the day SQ took delivery of 9V-SKA there were people saying Airbus should just cancel the program and cut their losses. And we s
53 Frigatebird: Have VS and EY not issued rfp's for VLA's (amongst others)? It would hugely surprise me if they would select the 748i though, with A380's already on
54 Stitch: I meant MH. Sorry, I don't think OZ needs either plane, frankly. They might choose the A380 just because KE has it, but they already can't fill a 747
55 PRAirbus: Never! With the price of fuel I am very sad to think the 748-I passenger version might never take off the drawing boards...too bad 'cause I think the
56 Frigatebird: Personally, I was more than happy to learn that they reconfirmed their A380 order, it's the best chance to see it at AMS Presently, KUL-AMS is 8x wee
57 Alessandro: Why? With the current fuel prices, the B744 will become less attractive and replacements are urgently needed.
58 Kanban: Building presidential planes is a prestige thing and not based on the balance sheet, if the Air Force asked for a bid they'd get one... and Boeing wo
59 Astuteman: Missed this earlier, Stitch.. (How??? ) Superb post, my friend, quite superb. Rgds
60 Cloudy: There are many different things that "profit per frame" can mean. The term "production costs" leads me to believe you calculate costs excluding produ
61 Astuteman: For what it's worth, in my view, the long-term appeal of the A380 will come frm the fact that the "future growth" variants (as you put it) will have
62 Nomadd22: OK. So I'm a week behind. I just ran across this and thought it was a good, short description of how Boeing is tackling half a dozen certifications a
63 Keesje: The network airline I know uses its 747 mostly for 6-7 weekly long haul destinations. Most passengers are connection passengers arriving from the tot
64 ScrubbsYWG: i'm curious, and those who know more about this may help, but why do things like landing gear have such long long lead times? I realize they are large
65 Stitch: Boeing Commercial Airplane's average margin is 10-15%. Airbus' has been battered of late thanks to the A380 and the need to push A330s as well as bei
66 EBJ1248650: Earlier in this thread I saw reference to the 767-200 Special Freighter. Who's buying it and how is it different from other 767 freighters ... or is t
67 Stitch: The 767-200SF is an after-market conversion of a passenger 767-200. Bedek Aviation and Boeing/Aeronavali each offer their own program, though Boeing/
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