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Pilot Shortage...what Pilot Shortage?  
User currently offlineKochamLOT From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 301 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2878 times:

All I hear are airlines cutting and furloughing. Looking for hope as an aspiring airline pilot, I searched pilot shortage in google and found that according to several sites including Aviation Week as recent as spring of this year, there is a pilot shortage in the not so far future.

Is this true? Where and when will this become more apparent?
If there is such a shortage, why are airlines still paying pilots jack?

17 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineFlyf15 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2856 times:

In the US, there is no pilot shortage anymore and will not be for many years. The only shortages out there are very isolated... ie: a shortage for A320 captains at Northwest or a shortage at a small Part 135 operator that has a poor safety record and poor pay.

Unfortunately, it was looking like things were going to be pretty good to be a pilot in the US recently, but oil prices are killing the airlines right now... they're all shrinking and putting pilots on the street in the process with very few other options. Though, there are still jobs available in other sectors of aviation and in airlines overseas if you choose to go one of those routes.



As far as my advice goes to an aspiring pilot, if you have your heart set on being a professional pilot, don't get down about the doom and gloom in the industry right now. There have always been down periods and there always will be. As horrible as it may seem now, its been like this before, and its gotten better. The best thing you can do is study hard, do what you can to add lines to your resume, and take good opportunities as they come. Somehow, probably with the low hiring requirements of airlines recently, many new pilots have thought that doing things such as instructing or piston freight is below them and they want to skip that step. Don't have this attitude. Yes, jobs like that are hard work, but they will make you a much better pilot in the end and frankly, they may be the only opportunities out there.


User currently offlineKochamLOT From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 301 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2825 times:

The articles:

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...annel=comm&id=news/PILOTS03128.xml

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2007/11/21/pilot-shortage.html


User currently offlineSilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2082 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2817 times:

The age 65 ruling just pushed back the upcoming crisis a few years.

User currently offlineFlyf15 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2809 times:

Oh I should also mention that age 65 managed to halt everyone's below them's career for 5 years. Next time you see an airline pilot flying older than 60, be sure to thank them for that.


Its not so much that theres a shortage. Theres just a shortage of pilots willing to work crappy jobs... and sadly, even that shortage is going away.


User currently offlineKochamLOT From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 301 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2789 times:

I was offered a USAF scholarship and a top candidate for a pilot slot but refused b/c I was under the influence that the regionals would still be hiring. Now one year later, Im reconsidering.
What do you think flyF15?
Its still doable to CFI and wait it out 2-3 years or Military with 10 yr commitment?
Ive read the military is testing alternate fuels and also using more uavs vs. fighters.


User currently offlineZkpilot From New Zealand, joined Mar 2006, 4826 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 2738 times:

Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 5):
I was offered a USAF scholarship and a top candidate for a pilot slot but refused b/c I was under the influence that the regionals would still be hiring. Now one year later, Im reconsidering.
What do you think flyF15?
Its still doable to CFI and wait it out 2-3 years or Military with 10 yr commitment?
Ive read the military is testing alternate fuels and also using more uavs vs. fighters.

Gotta question where your heart and head lie on this one...
Sure there is better money out there eventually in civ aviation, but thats after you spend a fortune training and then years scrapping by. To have the opportunity to have your training paid for (and be paid to do it) as well as flying military aircraft (maybe even fighters) you perhaps have some serious issues if you turned that down! Remember you can fly the friendly skies almost straight away after your 10 years is up... and if it fancies you can still get the thrill by joining the ANG.. something which is really only an option for American's... lucky!

Not to mention serving your country.

[Edited 2008-07-02 22:26:30]


56 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
User currently offlineMax Q From United States of America, joined May 2001, 4470 posts, RR: 19
Reply 7, posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 2715 times:

This crisis, will take a while to work it's way through, and, as already mentioned age 65 has really hurt everyone in terms of advancement, as in, none !

If you have a chance to fly for the Air Force I would grab it.

They will not run out of money, or fuel !



The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.
User currently offlinePilotNTrng From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 897 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 2665 times:



Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 5):

Hmmm flying for the USAF, top pay and top benefits or fly for basically minimum wage with little benefits? I am certainly not being a smart alec, but do some research. If you were offered a slot with the USAF, take it. If it is the 8 year deal ( I can't remember) your flight time will be out the roof when you get out and you can apply with any mainline carrier.



Booooo Lois, Yaaaa Beer!!!
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21571 posts, RR: 55
Reply 9, posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 2665 times:



Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 5):
I was offered a USAF scholarship and a top candidate for a pilot slot but refused b/c I was under the influence that the regionals would still be hiring. Now one year later, Im reconsidering.

Do reconsider. The Air Force has a lot of flying jobs that aren't going away. You can only replace so many things with UAVs. If you're not adverse to being in the military, they'll give you very good training for free, and when you come out you'll be more attractive to the major carriers, and might not have to spend time at a regional.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31679 posts, RR: 56
Reply 10, posted (6 years 2 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2635 times:

Out here there is still a Pilot [P1] shortage...likely to last for 3-4 years more.But High ATF prices,reducing fleet expansions,may reduce the duration further.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineCXB744 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 215 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (6 years 2 months 14 hours ago) and read 2272 times:



Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 5):
Its still doable to CFI and wait it out 2-3 years or Military with 10 yr commitment?

It depends how bad your want to fly for the airlines compared to just fly? I have been CFIing for 2 years and waiting. Many flight shcools will pay a lot for you because they are hurting for instructors.

IATA says that in the world that by 2018 the WORLD will be producing 3,000 pilots a year less than what will be required. This means any pilot retiring in the next ten years and all of those who have been slashed and burned since 9/11 will be fuming while us up and comers will be sitting in clover while the airlines fight over us.



What is it? It's A 747-400, but that's not important right now.
User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 12, posted (6 years 2 months 14 hours ago) and read 2240 times:



Quoting KochamLOT (Thread starter):

Run...run screaming away from any thought of a 'career' in aviation...unless you want all the low pay, lay-offs, cruddy schedules, working holidays, working all hours of the day and night, long times away from home, moving all the time, crappy benefits......did I miss something..?



"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlineAirCop From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (6 years 2 months 13 hours ago) and read 2161 times:



Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 5):
I was offered a USAF scholarship and a top candidate for a pilot slot but refused b/c I was under the influence that the regionals would still be hiring. Now one year later, Im reconsidering.

Would the scholarship has covered your school expenses? If so, in my way of thinking, that wasn't a smart decision. Do you have any idea how many doors open for you in the private world just because you were a military officer? Good luck in trying to get the scholarship again.


User currently offlineAAH732UAL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (6 years 2 months 13 hours ago) and read 2139 times:

Your about 6 months late!

This started around 2006 and ended in March of 08. Heck last summer I could have had a job at ASA in ATLFOs at 18. Glad I didn't b/c I would be right where I am today.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21515 posts, RR: 60
Reply 15, posted (6 years 2 months 12 hours ago) and read 2111 times:



Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 1):
Unfortunately, it was looking like things were going to be pretty good to be a pilot in the US recently, but oil prices are killing the airlines right now... they're all shrinking and putting pilots on the street in the process with very few other options.

True, but there wasn't much growth projected for domestic airlines anyway, so the shortage in the USA was never going to materialize from that side.

The reason a shortage was projected was because of regional carriers not offering enough pay and the majors have a long list of furloughed pilots in waiting, so it becomes a shortage of qualified pilots willing to work for so little at a regional while waiting so long to get into a major carrier career ladder.

Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 4):
Oh I should also mention that age 65 managed to halt everyone's below them's career for 5 years. Next time you see an airline pilot flying older than 60, be sure to thank them for that.

That's actually funny in an unintended consequences way. Everyone's career gets put on hold for 5 years (well not everyone, but many) so that pilots that are marginally deteriorating in their skill set can still fly the most lucrative/coveted routes.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineKochamLOT From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 301 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 2 months 12 hours ago) and read 2082 times:



Quoting AirCop (Reply 13):
Would the scholarship has covered your school expenses? If so, in my way of thinking, that wasn't a smart decision.

There was no guarantee that I had the flight slot, but I was offered a scholarship based on the Air Force Officer Qualifying Test, Physical Ftiness Scores, Colonel rating among other things.
The Captain at the detachment is still interested for me to come back although its been a year since and I know the longer I wait, the harder it will be for me to get back. But I will do it to Fly.

The scholarship includes free tuition (but not for University Flight fees) and a monthly stipend of $250 monthly increasing to $350 monthly after completing field training (4 week boot camp).

I just turned 21. I would have 3 years left if I re-joined the detachment. I must commission and have graduated with my diploma and complete my duties in the detachment before my 26th birthday.

THANK YOU - everybody that has responded. I sincerely appreciate your feedback.
I have talked with only 2 prior serving AF pilots and they said that if I really want to fly airlines that they dont suggest using the military as a stepping stone. I really dont know why he may have said that but I didnt want to challenge him.

Once again thanks and please offer more of your thoughts.


User currently offlineSaxman66 From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 518 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (6 years 2 months 12 hours ago) and read 2034 times:

If you're an apsiring pilot just starting out getting your private, you may be in a good position. My second ever flight lesson was scheduled for Sept. 11th '01. It was doom and gloom after that, and I wondered what I was getting into. But soon after at least the regionals started hiring again around 02 and 03. The industry is on a cycle and goes up and down. It starting to go down now, and hopefully we'll get through all this fuel crises stuff someday. Fortunately I was able to get hired during the upswing. I was right in the middle of it. Unfortunately, I'm still fairly junior at my airline, and getting a little nervous. I'm just trying to still go to work and enjoy the flying and just have fun with my crew. Then I go home and think anything but aviation.

Here's my main advice to aspiring pilots....Its ok to love to fly and want to work for the airlines, but have a hobby or another interest that has nothing to do with aviation. Play in a band, join a group, do woodwork, anything! It made my college career, and my career now way better.



Ride Amtrak!
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