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Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014  
User currently offlineENU From Netherlands, joined Nov 2006, 1166 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 27108 times:

Airbus will start developing a successor for the A318/19/20/21 family in 2014. First delivery could be four years later.

Source: http://www.handelsblatt.com/unterneh...-a320-im-jahr-2014-starten;2009007

59 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12041 posts, RR: 47
Reply 1, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 27018 times:
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My German isn't anywhere near good enough to be able to read that article, but have I got this right:

Cost - €10billion?
15% "better" than A320?

A brief report in English:
http://www.portfolio.com/news-market...h-successor-to-a320-in-2014-report

It will be interesting to see if Airbus says anything about this at Farnborough.



Hey AA, the 1960s called. They want their planes back!
User currently offlineENU From Netherlands, joined Nov 2006, 1166 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 26968 times:



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 1):
Cost - €10billion?
15% "better" than A320

Cost - €8 to 10billion

Reasons for 2014 are 1) to busy with other programmes 2) no engines available yet that burn 15% less fuel.

Will Boeing follow?


User currently offlineSwallow From Uganda, joined Jul 2007, 554 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 26939 times:



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 1):
It will be interesting to see if Airbus says anything about this at Farnborough

They very well might.

The timing is interesting. R&D on the 350 will have wound down leaving engineering resources free for the A30X. But it also means Boeing have to respond with the 737RS, and that may delay the timing of Y3. This may leave the 350 to take the bottom end of the large twin market while the 77W holds on to the upper end, with the proposed updates to that platform including winglets that will be developed by Aviation Partners and will reduce fuel burn by 5-7%.

This also adds credence to speculation that the GTF may find its way onto the A30X. It should be production ready by around 2012 and offers the 12-15% fuel burn improvement that this article cites.

Interesting times lie ahead.



The grass is greener where you water it
User currently offlineFrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1462 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 26941 times:

So, finally Airbus will be the first to start planning a new NB... Although, with only 4 years between start of development and EIS, I would think it will be rather more based on the current A320 than an all new design.

Some snippets of the article that interests me (for the non-German readers as well):
It's still unclear what kind of engines will be used;
Even if new engines were available before 2018, Airbus cannot start development earlier because they have their hands full on A400, A350 and A380 programs;
If Boeing doesn't start developing a new NB around the same timeframe, Airbus may postpone its plans as well(!);
Airbus still has a backlog worth 5 years of production, and if they land some big orders at Farnborough for the 'old' 320 they may postpone their plans as well.

Looks like (amongst others) AF-KL, AA and Keesje finally get what they want...  Wink



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT3,ATP,E90,F50/70,M11,
User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 26775 times:



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 4):
finally Airbus will be the first to start planning a new NB

Actually, the report doesn't really state that.

It states Airbus is now counting on 2014 (at the earliest) to start working on their NSR, which they have dubbed the A30X.

However, the article then goes on saying that:

Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 4):
If Boeing doesn't start developing a new NB around the same time frame, Airbus may postpone its plans as well(!)

Which makes great sense.

Airbus is in the drivers seat here, so it is really up to Boeing to move first and Airbus can (and will) only play its cards after having seen those of Boeing.

As such I read the article as indicative of what has been said here numerous times, i.e. that Airbus does not expect anything to happen before 2014 because no new engine will be available before then and plans on doing nothing after that date either, for as long as Boeing doesn't move first...

In the mean time, they just keep building the backlog of the A320 to form a cushion which will allow them a soft landing once they launch their NSR (and orders for the A320 dry up) and given the fact they may improve the A320 thanks to an aerodynamic cleanup as well as engine modifications, they can make it even more attractive and efficient, thus constantly moving the target at which Boeing must aim (and thus also moving the date for their reply to it).

Don't expect to be on one of these brand new A30Xs next decade...  Wink


User currently offlineBrightCedars From Belgium, joined Nov 2004, 1286 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 26642 times:

It sounds as if all the efficiency gains would come from the new engines, and then it doesn't make much sense to change the whole plane design if you ask me.

I mean a narrow body will always be a narrow body and while a few more inches in width might help here and there I'm not seeing any drastic design changes needed here. Maybe a larger wing to support a step up in aircraft size (maybe 2 wings sizes would be a better idea) in order to start at the current A319 as the bottom of the product line and be able to exceed the A321 at the top of the line (long tube!) in order to provide a decent non-wide-body replacement for the B757/B767/A300/A310s of this world that travel relatively short hops with a lot of capacity. The sizes in between will definitely have to have transatlantic range (not LCA-LAX but something like BUD-ORD).

Ideally, the engine shouldn't run on fuel, but that seems a greater challenge for this scale of time.



I want the European Union flag on airliners.net!
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3344 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 26615 times:

The German source cited La Tribune. The article in La Tribune includes (translated):

Before launching this new programme the idea of enhancing the existing A320 with improved propulsion is also being studied.

Source:

http://www.latribune.fr/info/A320-du...me-lance-en-2014-~-20080708U7GBREP

CFM have announced they will be introducing an enhanced engine with geater than 10% reduction in fuel burn about 2014 IIRC.

To me it seems more sensible to wait until open rotor and GTF possibilities are clear before launching a new aircraft.


User currently offlineAviationbuff From India, joined Mar 2008, 1425 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 26574 times:



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 4):
So, finally Airbus will be the first to start planning a new NB...

Airbus is probably trying to put pressure on Boeing to launch NSR before Y3.

Both A & B had to respond positively considering the fuel prices and the demand of airlines. They may also have some threat on the lower end from Embraer, Bombardier and to some extent Chineese.

Best of luck to both A & B.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 26427 times:



Quoting ENU (Reply 2):
Will Boeing follow?

I think this announcement is of little value to Boeing (and Airbus) they have been studying and (tunnel) testing various concepts for years and continue to do so. Same goes for the enabling technologies.

This announcement seems little more then PR "Yes we are working on something cleaner."
2018 is 10 years! A380, A350 and 787 took about half the development times.

This news imo could be read as:

"We are doing nothing extra for the next 5 years or so"



User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9082 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 26392 times:



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 4):
Looks like (amongst others) AF-KL, AA and Keesje finally get what they want...

And Delta



yep.
User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1079 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 26326 times:



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 1):
15% "better" than A320?

"Only" 15% improvement?
I guess they are referring to costs (fuelburn and maintenace).

However ... I think that "only" 15% isn't that much of an improvement, or is it?
This family probably wont be in service before closer to 2020.
Didn't the A320-100 EIS in 1988?.


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 26306 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
This news imo could be read as:

"We are doing nothing extra for the next 5 years or so"

You've got the point!  bigthumbsup 

But given the enthusiasm displayed here, the message was brought very well, don't you agree?  Smile


User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3344 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 26168 times:

From flightglobal.com re: new engines:

The LEAP56 has a 15% higher-loaded single high-pressure turbine stage and an eight-stage high-pressure compressor, with 10-15% lower specific fuel consumption, up to 15dB less noise and 25% longer life on wing.

Both the GTF and LEAP56 technology would essentially transfer the ultra-high bypass ratio technology already powering widebody jets to the narrowbody market. Narrowbody engines have remained stuck in the same bypass range since turbofans were introduced in the 1970s.


http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...xt-generation-of-narrowbodies.html

That would be a very cheap way to cut the A320's fuel consumption. If it would not fit under the wing of a 737, so much the better for Airbus.,


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 11932 posts, RR: 25
Reply 14, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 25983 times:



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 4):
If Boeing doesn't start developing a new NB around the same timeframe, Airbus may postpone its plans as well(!);

Then why make this announcement? All it can do is tell the buyers to stop buying the A320, which is not in Airbus's interest. I'm sure it won't impact Boeing's plans one iota.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 5):
Airbus is in the drivers seat here, so it is really up to Boeing to move first and Airbus can (and will) only play its cards after having seen those of Boeing.

Both A and B have large backlogs. While some are saying up to 30% of those backlogs are at risk, that in essence means 70% are not.

Both A and B will replace their narrowbodies when new orders disappear and the backlog shinks, not any sooner. Till then, it's only tweaks to the current product lines.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineAutoThrust From Switzerland, joined Jun 2006, 1546 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 25980 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
"We are doing nothing extra for the next 5 years or so"

Good point, it will be wise to let Boeing first design their Y1 and then react.

Btw, great picture  Big grin


Your guess, how many A320 will be built until replacement:

6000?



“Faliure is not an option.”
User currently offlineFrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1462 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 25879 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
This news imo could be read as:

"We are doing nothing extra for the next 5 years or so"

Which makes sense, with 5 years of production still as backlog. And with lots of resources invested in A400/A380/A350, and 787/748 (although B could develop a 737 sucessor earlier than 2014 if they don't decide to develop Y3 first).



Quoting Revelation (Reply 14):
Then why make this announcement? All it can do is tell the buyers to stop buying the A320, which is not in Airbus's interest. I'm sure it won't impact Boeing's plans one iota.

To be fair, it's not Airbus that made an official announcement, but French and German newspapers. And I don't expect Airbus to make an announcement at Farnborough either.



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT3,ATP,E90,F50/70,M11,
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 25860 times:

Airbus is projecting to sell 8,000 A32S by the end of its lifespan but this includes incorportating updates, such as electronic taxiing, winglets and potentially the GTF.

User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3344 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 25736 times:



Quoting Revelation (Reply 14):
Both A and B will replace their narrowbodies when new orders disappear and the backlog shinks, not any sooner. Till then, it's only tweaks to the current product lines.

I'm not so sure it's going to be that simple. It is in A and B's interest that their customer base should be profitable and to take account of conditions in the airline industry. Failing to plan ahead to provide shorthaul hardware capable of keeping their customers profitable in difficult times for the airline industry will result in a contraction of their customer base.

Customers will have to keep ordering some NB's if it is time to renew their NB's but they may not be good enough to keep them out of financial trouble.

I see a bit of a symbiotic relationship between manufacturers and airlines: manufacturers take steps to help customers make a profit; profitable customers buy more from manufacturers.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 25718 times:

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 15):
it will be wise to let Boeing first design their Y1 and then react.

I think we have to count on Boeing here. Their 737 has reached the end off its long product life cycle. Further dramatic enhancements seem unfeasible. When the first 50 787 have entered service and the 787-9 is ready they probably have the resources (cash flow, brains & manpower) in place. However an issue looms in the 350-500 seat segment, where Boeing is dominating now. The 777 seems at risk, the 747-8i is not selling..

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 15):
Your guess, how many A320 will be built until replacement:

Depends. My hope is Bombardier will be smart enough not to go it alone. This proved killing for proud companies like Dornier, Fokker and Douglas. A rich history & good product alone aren't good enough. A western risk sharing partner that can share design & support a quick ramp up of production and organize the after market would be great entering the commercial airlines market.

Maybe AVIC concluded the ARJ sucks & goes for plan B, who knows..

[Edited 2008-07-08 05:12:56]

User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 20, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 25689 times:



Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
"Only" 15% improvement?
I guess they are referring to costs (fuelburn and maintenace).

15% refers to total operating costs. A 15% reduction in fuel burn alone would not achieve this.



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlineFreequentFlier From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 875 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 25689 times:

This is why I welcome the Chinese and Russian narrow-bodies that are arriving as we speak, along with Embraer and Bombardier's potential move upmarket. There is nothing to fear from competition, and it is competition that will produce a much more fuel efficient aircraft and one that is on a time frame of the airline's choosing, not that of Airbus or Boeing's choosing.

User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 11932 posts, RR: 25
Reply 22, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 25546 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 19):
I think we have to count on Boeing here. Their 737 has reached the end off its long product life cycle.

With backlog around 1500 and production around 300 per year, there's five more years of deliveries of the current orders, and those frames will fly around 15 years or so (more for the sub-hunter variants). Since first flight was in the 1960's, we are around 2/3rds the way through the 737's product life cycle, so stop talking nonsense.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 25199 times:



Quoting Revelation (Reply 22):
h backlog around 1500 and production around 300 per year, there's five more years of deliveries of the current orders, and those frames will fly around 15 years or so (more for the sub-hunter variants). Since first flight was in the 1960's, we are around 2/3rds the way through the 737's product life cycle, so stop talking nonsense.

Revelation. The 737 will be probably produced for another 5 years. After that it won't stop (P8) but decline fast. That''s what I call end of the product life cycle for Boeing after producing it for 40 years: 7/8 . Ref Passenger versions of 747, 757, 767, 777-200: sales declined fast long before their successors become available.


User currently offlineSXDFC From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 2227 posts, RR: 19
Reply 24, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 25111 times:

Maybe this means a chance for Airbus to land a WN order ?  duck 


ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
25 Revelation : Maybe end of production cycle, not product life cycle. Boeing is still supporting MDC legacy products, previous generation 737/747/757/767 etc. The c
26 Scbriml : Yes, of course they do, just as Airbus still supports the A300 and A310. He was really talking about end of production.
27 SEPilot : Exactly the point. But it is mostly because they have their hands full with other things, as you have said, as well as the fact that no engine is ava
28 Revelation : Yes, now we know what he's talking about, but his point misses the mark. It's not like A320 and B737 are seeing a rapid drop in orders. Both A and B
29 Revelation : [Double posting removed...][Edited 2008-07-08 09:18:22]
30 FrmrCAPCADET : Both A & B are keeping their best customers up to date on what they can do with their new NBs. Those best customers are also talking with the engine m
31 ER757 : I think that is a prudent course if action. This question might be better suited for tech/ops, but how much of a re-design would be involved on the 7
32 Nomadd22 : I keep seeing two different efficiency figures. There's a difference between engine fuel burn improvement and aircraft fuel burn improvement. For the
33 EA772LR : I'm with you on that one. Basically "yada yada yada....we won't access to enough technologies for a true 15% improvement over this current generation
34 Loran : Revelation is right, the life-cycle lasts from the identification of the need of a product, until the phase out & disposal, where the 737 is far away
35 Trent1000 : How do we know that Beoing are not ahead? Does Boeing often play 'catch up'? It will be interesting to see medium term engine innovation; design, mat
36 Ken777 : I believe that there is a lot of communicating between airlines, A & B and the engine makers. When the airlines are satisfied that the engines are rea
37 TSS : For starters, greater ground clearance is required. But that leads to a whole bunch of what Norm Abrams of "This Old House" fame calls you might as w
38 Baroque : [i[ Revelation,reply=28 Double posting removed...[/i] Had you put that in Rev, you presumably would have implied 5 (first post) + 5 (repeat post) year
39 Revelation : Absolutely. I just meant the current orders almost guarantee full scale production for the next 5 years. As more orders come in, or as orders get can
40 Baroque : No doubt it is a tricky problem, but a heck of a lot preferable to running out of sales and then having to think "What do we do next?"! Spike Milliga
41 Post contains links Revelation : Tomorrow can wait as Airbus and Boeing leave next generation narrowbody development on the back burner Pretty much confirms many things certain a.net
42 EBGflyer : SAS have already indicated that they will be changing their ageing Mad Dog fleet with a new generation of short-haul aircraft whenever they become ava
43 Nomadd22 : I was wondering what the feasability of a difefrent size fan would be on the GTF. I know the big one everybody refers to is the optimum size, but how
44 Revelation : Yes, I think that's a big issue for several airlines. AA comes to mind as well. As above, it's not easy to change one thing in isolation. There has n
45 Post contains images Keesje : Some think Airbus and Boeing determine when new aircraft will be required & bought. For those people Airbus & Boeing changing plans probably often com
46 Stitch : It is certainly true that airlines need to move to more efficient planes not only to lower their own costs, but to keep their prices low enough that t
47 Rheinwaldner : Driving factor for delaying new NB's are IMHO lack of development resources. A+B are so comitted to diverse WB projects that there is no resource to s
48 Post contains links Revelation : Looking for myself, according to Scbriml, we see that Airbus has taken in 34 more orders for A320s in June and Boeing has taken in 37 for B737, and a
49 Keesje : Well either : 1. The airlines love the B737 / A320 fuel efficiency, improvemnet is a waste of money 2. The airlines hate it but have no alternative,
50 Scbriml : You're reading delivery numbers! Orders are 313 for A320 and 355 for 737 through June!
51 Tangowhisky : The article is in line with what most are saying with respect to the current order backlog, production for 10 more years, and tapering off of the dema
52 Post contains links Revelation : Thanks for the Reductio ad absurdum argument. I guess you ran out of cute kitten pictures to post. They hate it enough to be ordering ~650 frames so
53 Revelation : Sorry for the error! The correct data makes my point even stronger! The incoming orders are greater than the deliveries, so the backlog is growing, e
54 SEPilot : I propose a third alternative. Everyone would like more efficiency, Airbus and Boeing included. But with the cost of developing a new airframe being
55 Stitch : In terms of passenger capacity, the EMB-195 can replace the 737-600 and A318-100. Boeing has no 737-600 orders to fill and Airbus has only 38. The Bo
56 Scbriml : With rumours that ILFC is about to order 300 A320s and 737s, the number will get even stronger!
57 Astuteman : If there wasn't, the industry wouldn't exist.... Sometimes when I read some of your posts, I reckon rumours of his demise were greatly exaggerated...
58 Stitch : I expect them to go higher.
59 Astuteman : They have said they were looking to go higher. Presumably, (like Boeing), they'll be keeping their ear firmly to the customer's mouthpiece during thi
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