Kwbl From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 441 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2458 times:
4th quarter was not good because of the high fares-once the fares were somehwat competitive, loads are consistently between 70-80% from March through June. The 1st year LF was 68% which is not too bad given the fares. Delta and city officials state the fuel price is the reason service is being cancelled. I firmly believe that service will work at SLE but not at the current cost of fuel on regional jets to SLC.
MOBflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1209 posts, RR: 4 Reply 4, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2425 times:
Quoting Kwbl (Reply 3): 4th quarter was not good because of the high fares-once the fares were somehwat competitive, loads are consistently between 70-80% from March through June. The 1st year LF was 68% which is not too bad given the fares. Delta and city officials state the fuel price is the reason service is being cancelled. I firmly believe that service will work at SLE but not at the current cost of fuel on regional jets to SLC.
That yield was already pretty low for an airport that has limited service. But anyway - so loads went up, but fares went down - likely keeping revenue stagnant. In order to get the flight to profitable levels, you would need a 112% LF at Q4's prices, even higher at lower prices. Its not passenger loads, but revenue quality that determines profitability.
BlueheronNC From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 89 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 1593 times:
Don't be surprised if ELH (N. Eleuthera) is on that list tomorrow. The flight has been zeroed out for days. The reservation agent said nothing official has been given to them yet, but I'd bet my top dollar at the ax will fall tomorrow. I hope it does so that I can have some closure with my travel plans (decided not to rebook today even though they offered to do it for free, on the off-chance that ELH isn't canceled). But with this mysterious "press release" tomorrow, all bets are off.
AirlineBrat From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 640 posts, RR: 1 Reply 15, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 1559 times:
Quoting RwSEA (Reply 13): The only other addition lately that I can remember off the top of my head is LWS, but I guess I shouldn't expect that one to last much longer either.
ACV was started this past June. The community put together over $1 million in travel guarantees but I am not sure that will be enough the way things are going with the current price of fuel. We were supposed to have two flights a day but the morning eastbound and evening westbound flights have not been operating during mid week. I think both flights are now running 7 days a week as of July 6th, but I expect that will revert back to one flight running 4 days a week and the other running 7 days a week. That is 'IF' DL stays in the market.......
Anyone know how the RDM flights are doing?
I'm leavin on a jet plane. Don't know when I'll be back again....
KWBL From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 441 posts, RR: 0 Reply 16, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 1522 times:
I understand load factor is not the sole factor in determining wether or not the flight is profitable. I am not sure where the stats come from or how accurate they are (please understand I am not doubting the info) but others have said the yield on this route was surprisingly high (Jetlanta for one) Also, 4th quarter was very poor but in other months, they have reportedly done very well. I have been on 5 flights out of SLE and not one left with less than 46 pax. Ticket prices were not cheap for the most part so if yields are a problem, then the cost side of the equation is at issue - fuel cost being nearly double from when the flights started is the biggest culprit. DL officials said that they need 85% LF in the current environment.
Horizon has been heavily courted in the past, wrote letters of support when the federal grant money was being handed out, but has not committed to coming in. As much as I appreciate Deltaf or trying, United and Horizon are better options with better chances of success in the market.
I am convinced that with passenger loads they are currently getting, the service would be successful if fuel was back in the $80-$90 per barrel range. I am also convinced that UA to SFO & DEN and / or QX to SEA & LAX would draw much more pax support. The SLE-SLC market only carried 11 O & D pax during the 4Q.
I really think its too bad that DL is cutting so much to these communities after just 15 months or so-YKM, BLI, SLE, BF, MRY, YUM are just the beginning.
PHLBOS From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7424 posts, RR: 25 Reply 17, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 1377 times:
Quoting GEG2RAP (Reply 7): dl was it, no commercial service after dl leaves
Similar happened nearly a year ago when DL (via OH) dropped ILG (pre-SkyBus).
IIRC, PA3 may have still been flying when DL dropped TTN around the same time (give or take a few months) they left ILG.
Quoting Kwbl (Reply 3): 4th quarter was not good because of the high fares-once the fares were somehwat competitive
No offence, but this seems to be an ongoing problem regardless of the price of oil. While I wasn't aware that SLE fares went down (in order to compete w/PDX); the recurring theme lately w/the DL Connection carriers offering service to smaller airports located within 50 miles of a larger airports seems to be charge 2 to 3 times as much as the larger fare airport (due to competition from either B6, FL and/or WN). Seeing this happen several times (ILG & TTN back when oil was only $80-90/barrel), one would think that the good folks at DL would try a different approach when starting service at these smaller neighboring airports. Maybe, just maybe 50-seat RJs aren't the most cost-effective way to go in these situations.
I'm not saying that the record-high prices didn't play a role in DL leaving SLE, but something tells me that DL would've eventually left SLE anyway at some point down the road if their fares weren't competitively priced with their PDX fares.
Side note: has the HUT bus seen increased passenger loads due to SLE folks not wanting to drive to PDX (due to gas prices)?
Will DL leaving SLE increase loads on HUT?
"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
Jetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3040 posts, RR: 36 Reply 18, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 1316 times:
Quoting KWBL (Reply 16): I understand load factor is not the sole factor in determining wether or not the flight is profitable. I am not sure where the stats come from or how accurate they are (please understand I am not doubting the info) but others have said the yield on this route was surprisingly high (Jetlanta for one)
Delta was pleased with the performance out of the gate. Clearly it wasn't strong enough to withstand the oil run-up. There is no shame in that, many other markets are suffering a similar fate.
From what I remember the markets has been talked about internally a few times. In fact it may have been asked about in an internal web posting. But the fact is that AAG appears to have decided its not worth restarting. Will it every be restarted, maybe. QX will not have the proper aircraft for this route once the Dash-2 is gone, which is months away. So I do not see SLE getting Horizon service soon. The focus will be on other new markets like the connection of Arizona cities we have done to our LAX hub.
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"