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NW / DL At Phoenix Reduction?  
User currently offlineBP1 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 593 posts, RR: 1
Posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 2984 times:

Once the Delta / Northwest merger is completed will Phoenix see a draw down in service from the combined carrier? With so many hubs for these two combined carriers what will we see from Phoenix. The current schedule for both airlines from Phoenix is: (21 July 2008)

NW

PHX - MSP (5) Daily - Delta
PHX- DTW (4) Daily - Delta
PHX- MEM (2) Daily (Compass)

DL

PHX - SLC (7) Daily (Skywest & Delta)
PHX - ATL (5) Daily - Delta
PHX- JFK (2) Daily - Delta
PHX-CVG (1) Daily - Delta

Will we see any NW city be cut back in Phoenix (I thought I heard PHX-MEM was being cut)? That said, will the airlines work together to re-focus the hubs thus eliminating some of the flights needed to Phoenix? For example, will Trans-Atlantic flights be shifted to one or two gateways only instead of the six right now (JFK, ATL, CVG, SLC, MSP, DTW)?

Thanks,
BP1


"First To Fly The A-380" / 26 October 2007 SYD-SIN Inaugural
16 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3452 posts, RR: 10
Reply 1, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 2944 times:

I think you'll likely see PHX service to MEM and CVG cut and have that traffic routed through ATL, DTW, and to a lessor extent JFK. I still see service to ATL, MSP, DTW, SLC, and JFK remain at the same levels.

Jeremy


User currently offlineTVNWZ From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 2309 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 2927 times:



Quoting SESGDL (Reply 1):
I think you'll likely see PHX service to MEM and CVG cut and have that traffic routed through ATL, DTW

Every flight I have been on, with either carrier, have been jamed full.


User currently offlineAzstar From United States of America, joined May 2005, 597 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2878 times:



Quoting BP1 (Thread starter):
Every flight I have been on, with either carrier, have been jamed full.

PHX, similar to LAS, is high volume, low yield. It's really much more ideally suited to WN business model than to legacy carriers dependence on business travel, high fares, and first class travelers. Once again, full does not always = profitability.


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7343 posts, RR: 28
Reply 4, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 2713 times:

MEM & CVG will have PHX service as long as they both remain a hub.
If/when the no longer act as connecting hubs, they will likely lose PHX service. They could potentially stay on dependent on the level of focus-city service they retain.

DTW, MSP, JFK, ATL, SLC should all stay at their current level, if not slightly higher to DTW & ATL should CVG & MEM significantly downsize.

Quoting BP1 (Thread starter):
Phoenix? For example, will Trans-Atlantic flights be shifted to one or two gateways only instead of the six right now (JFK, ATL, CVG, SLC, MSP, DTW)?

JFK, ATL, MSP, DTW are going to be significant Trans-Atlantic gateways.

SLC will retain its token CDG flight, if it survives the fuel cost crisis

CVG's service and MEM's AMS flights are entirely dependent on how long they remain connecting hubs.


User currently offlinePlanefxr From United States of America, joined exactly 6 years ago today! , 443 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 2699 times:



Quoting DTW.SCE" class=quote target=_blank>PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 4):
JFK, ATL, MSP, DTW are going to be significant Trans-Atlantic gateways.

SLC will retain its token CDG flight, if it survives the fuel cost crisis

CVG's service and MEM's AMS flights are entirely dependent on how long they remain connecting hubs.

SEA,PDX and BOS are transatlantic gateways for NW as well. Look for CVG to possibly lose all but AMS and CDG, and they may lose that as well.


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13255 posts, RR: 62
Reply 6, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2640 times:
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Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 4):
MEM & CVG will have PHX service as long as they both remain a hub.

CVG is still a hub, yet they're looking at a 23% capacity reduction come this fall. Odds are PHX will be hit since connecting customers to/from PHX are well served via ATL.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineEMB170 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 644 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2565 times:

You never know. It depends I would think on the O&D and the actual yields they can get out of the route. MEM is fortunate in that outside of FL it doesn't have LCC presence; that being said I don't know what their leakage rate to LIT, STL, and BNA is for that reason. I know NW did try IND-PHX in the infancy of the IND focus city with an A319, but PHX has not come back (though LAS and LAX are going strong, SFO and SEA seem to be doing well, and DEN is up to 2 flights a day).


Can passenger jets fly as fast as my feet do? Let's find out...
User currently offlineBP1 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 593 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2458 times:

With the pull down at IND from ATA filing for BK in April, the loads from IND would probably be higher anyway for NW.

I guess we will wait and see what happens with the merger and once the schedules are loaded for the Fall / Winter schedule change. Suppose we all ought to hang on because this is going to be a hard ride to enjoy.

Thanks for the postings.

Cheers,
BP1



"First To Fly The A-380" / 26 October 2007 SYD-SIN Inaugural
User currently offlineLambert747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2424 times:



Quoting DTW.SCE" class=quote target=_blank>PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 4):


JFK, ATL, MSP, DTW are going to be significant Trans-Atlantic gateways.

The plans from what I understand do not call for Minneapolis to share company with the above as significant TATL gateways. At most, at the very most Minneapolis will have CDG, AMS, and LHR. However as can be seen CDG is a question. Minneapolis does not have the O/D mix nor the business traffic to support any additional European gateways. Minneapolis, is not a New York, Atlanta, or Detroit.


User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9081 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 2400 times:



Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 4):
SLC will retain its token CDG flight, if it survives the fuel cost crisis

It needs a better a/c on it. the 763ER has had to go via CVG many times.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 6):
CVG is still a hub, yet they're looking at a 23% capacity reduction come this fall. Odds are PHX will be hit since connecting customers to/from PHX are well served via ATL

Most of the CVG cuts are CRJ/ERJ stations not many mainline cuts (the few that are left)



yep.
User currently offlineIsitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 24
Reply 11, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 2329 times:

PHX boardings on any carrier in July aren't close to Feb or Mar boardings.
Even though Phoenix is a big city, it can be still be on the "seasonal" list because of
the big swing in boardings per time of the year.
Not many tourists go to PHX when its 114 degrees but love to go there when its 75 in AZ and 3 at home with 10 inches of snow.............or more.
NW and DL never have run a bunch of trips to PHX in July. Go back and compare July to their Feb or Mar sched of 07 or 08 departures. See the dif?
safe



If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9081 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2234 times:



Quoting Lambert747 (Reply 9):
The plans from what I understand do not call for Minneapolis to share company with the above as significant TATL gateways. At most, at the very most Minneapolis will have CDG, AMS, and LHR. However as can be seen CDG is a question. Minneapolis does not have the O/D mix nor the business traffic to support any additional European gateways. Minneapolis, is not a New York, Atlanta, or Detroit.

Maybe FRA with a 763 but I think CDG will go down to a 763 also.



yep.
User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7343 posts, RR: 28
Reply 13, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2188 times:



Quoting EMB170 (Reply 7):
I know NW did try IND-PHX in the infancy of the IND focus city with an A319, but PHX has not come back (though LAS and LAX are going strong, SFO and SEA seem to be doing well, and DEN is up to 2 flights a day).

IND-PHX didn't work because of the WN & US combo on the route.

Quoting BP1 (Reply 8):
I guess we will wait and see what happens with the merger and once the schedules are loaded for the Fall / Winter schedule change. Suppose we all ought to hang on because this is going to be a hard ride to enjoy.

Don't expect to see any merger-related changes in the fall / winter schedules. Sept & Oct. are already loaded and essentially finalized. November & December are currently in-progress. Since schedules are finalized generally 4+ months out for international, and 90 days for domestic, there won't be any merger-related changes until likely Spring/Summer 2009.

Quoting Lambert747 (Reply 9):
The plans from what I understand do not call for Minneapolis to share company with the above as significant TATL gateways. At most, at the very most Minneapolis will have CDG, AMS, and LHR. However as can be seen CDG is a question. Minneapolis does not have the O/D mix nor the business traffic to support any additional European gateways. Minneapolis, is not a New York, Atlanta, or Detroit.

By significant, I meant at least a few. I would consider 4-6 TATL flights to be significant. (Compared to the likes of SEA, SLC, PDX, MEM, or even BOS, EWR which only have 1-2 daily flights to a single destination) Obviously DTW will be bigger, as well as ATL & JFK even larger.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 12):
Maybe FRA with a 763 but I think CDG will go down to a 763 also.

CDG will work better with a 763. MSP-FRA is questionable, its either MSP or add a second daily frequency to DTW-FRA.

I'd like to think things go as we all think, but the cost of fuel is killling the industry, and it sure seems like all bets are off in the future.


User currently offlineAirStairs From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 487 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2065 times:
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Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 6):
Odds are PHX will be hit since connecting customers to/from PHX are well served via ATL.

This is unfortunate because connecting in CVG, especially to Comair, is worlds less stressful and more pleasant than ATL with ASA.

PHX has been stuck with yield difficulties for quite a while; but, I was always surprised with the success NW had in PHX as they advertise very little here and, while completely anecdotal, no one in my extended circle in PHX ex airline aficionados seem to use NW. But they have always managed to pack in several daily flights and pre-9/11, D10s and the occasional 742 from the midwest. Props to NW, I will miss them here.



AirStairs


User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3452 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 2029 times:



Quoting Lambert747 (Reply 9):
Minneapolis, is not a New York, Atlanta, or Detroit.

You don't know what you're talking about. MSP and DTW have almost identical O&D numbers and up until last year MSP had higher O&D than DTW; NW commands higher yields at MSP as well. MSP is also NW's largest hub by passengers carried and is also their largest O&D city. MSP isn't going to be a significant translatlantic station not because of its O&D levels but because of its location, its simply too far west.

Jeremy


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13255 posts, RR: 62
Reply 16, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 2029 times:
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Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 10):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 6):
CVG is still a hub, yet they're looking at a 23% capacity reduction come this fall. Odds are PHX will be hit since connecting customers to/from PHX are well served via ATL

Most of the CVG cuts are CRJ/ERJ stations not many mainline cuts (the few that are left)

And again, any of those markets served via 1 connection over CVG are just as easily served via 1 connection over ATL - except ATL has a lot more lift from PHX than CVG does, so again - look for the PHX-CVG flight to disappear in that 23% capacity cut.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
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