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Frontier Post June Numbers - Net Loss $8.8mil  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25835 posts, RR: 50
Posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2536 times:

Frontier today filed its monthly financial with the court for June 2008.

Operating Loss: $3.2mil
Net Loss: $8.8mil
Ending Cash: $59.3mil

The operating numbers are not terrible, however the cash position dropped by some $50.7mil during the month as the honeymoon on paying many bills expired.


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
16 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineIsitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 23
Reply 1, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2529 times:

The problem is they are small...only a handful of planes compared to the other guys.
The eight million dollars seems bigger with a smaller company. With a NW or airTrain, thats not much considering the sales...or gross income.
safe



If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
User currently offlineRL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4696 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2529 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Ending Cash: $59.3mil



Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
the cash position dropped by some $50.7mil during the month

That doesnt sound good.....



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently onlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 6046 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2468 times:



Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 1):
The eight million dollars seems bigger with a smaller company. With a NW or airTrain, thats not much considering the sales...or gross income.

Ends up working out to an operating loss of -2.8% for the month and a net loss of -6.7%. For the period that they have been in BK (10 days short of a quarter) they are running an operating loss of -9.9% and a net loss of -14.7%.

Bright spots this month is that revenue increased by 9%+ over last month which helped drive F9s negative cash flow from -22 million in May to -8.8 million in June.



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineN7371f From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1744 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2446 times:
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June is suppose to be one of the top 3 or 4 months, performance wise, for Frontier during all of the year. The loss is disappointing certainly.

One wild card is F9 still had Republic Airways on the books until the last week of June I believe. In the end there were only 2 Republic E70's flying for F9; earlier in the month that number was likely higher. F9 was losing its shirt on the Republic flying - so some of the June loss is attributable to that. How much I think is anyone's guess...

As for the cash level. Whew! Thank heaven for the DIP deal announced Friday. Without it Frontier was really looking at trouble.


User currently offlinePetteri From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 281 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2433 times:

Well, things are trending in the right direction. What is interesting is that it doesn't seem like Frontier needs that much of a drop in fuel prices to turn a profit. The note that goes with the cash on hand confuses me. Could someone explain that? It is in regards to PFC. Does this statment show where exactly the cash went if is wasn't the PFC, as that number seems to have stayed steady for the past few months.


The above comments are my personal comments and in no way should be viewed as the views,policy or statements of JetBlue
User currently onlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 6046 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2381 times:



Quoting Petteri (Reply 5):
The note that goes with the cash on hand confuses me. Could someone explain that?

F9 had a 60 day grace period in which they did not need to pay certain bills (rent mostly) which give them the chance to negotiate with their lenders for a lower fee/charges. At the end of that 60 day period they are required pay whatever fees that they were able to negotiate on those bills or risk loosing the assets. That 50 million dollar drop is F9 paying all of their past due bills basically....



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7413 posts, RR: 14
Reply 7, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 2104 times:

I estimated they would lose between $0m and $9m in another thread and I was pretty close. However, I was way/way off on their cash burn. Dear lord...

Cash position
4/30/08 $99.8m
5/31/08 $110.0m
6/30/08 $59.3m

Just their fuel bill is $17 million per week, so they were pretty close to the minimum manageable cash on June 30th, of course, they have bolstered it since then.

It appears from the data that First Data went to a 100% holdback during June that resulted in roughly a $17 million reduction in the cash position. That is now reversed through Sep30, so they picked some of that back up, but Fall advance bookings are weaker so it might only add $10 million to the cash position by the time we get to mid-August.

They also had to pay $24 million in accrued debts that should be one-time catch-up. It appears to me that if you back out all the one-time items they were $12-15 million cash negative for the month on a net loss of $8.835 million. The good news is that July is probably their best month, but August is probably more like May with Denver kids going back to school mid-month.

Here is my estimate of their unrestricted cash:

6/30/08 $59.8 million
+ $17 million holdback reversal
+ $20 million from DIP financing (remainder is restricted and doesn't count)
-$8 million for cash effect of July operations (my estimate)
7/31/08 $89 million
+$67 million from the sale of 6 A319s
-$16 million from operations (my estimate)
-$7 million from holdback ebbing into Fall
8/31/08 $133 million
-$22 million from operations (my estimate)
-$10 million from end of holdback reversal
9/30/08 $101 million
-$22 million from operations (my estimate)
10/31/08 $79 million

It doesn't include tranche two of the Perseus deal which has no closing date. With both of those items they could be cash neutral from now until 9/30/08.

---edit, added A319 sale and October estimate

[Edited 2008-07-29 17:38:20]

User currently offlineAirportGuy1971 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 355 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2023 times:

And the Enilria prediction of doom will begin in 5... 4...

Quoting Enilria (Reply 7):
Fall advance bookings are weaker so it might only add $10 million to the cash position by the time we get to mid-August.

How are you privy to Frontier's advance bookings? Are you telling this forum that you have access to this information?


User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2827 posts, RR: 42
Reply 9, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 1999 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Operating Loss: $3.2mil
Net Loss: $8.8mil
Ending Cash: $59.3mil

Not bad at all, given the billion dollar scale their competitors are now loosing money at.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

The operating numbers are not terrible, however the cash position dropped by some $50.7mil during the month as the honeymoon on paying many bills expired.

Yep. Also to be expected.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 7):
Here is my estimate of their unrestricted cash:

Your assumption fails to take into account:

  • staff cuts
  • plane mortgage cuts
  • lease gate cuts
  • dropping fuel prices


And in short, every other positive side effect of Bankruptcy.

I have no doubt that if F9 emerges from Bankruptcy, sold or unsold, you will make a post entitled "oh lord... F9 is really screwed now"


User currently offlineEXAAUADL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 1990 times:

regardless of how much they lost, the only important number is $59m in cash and its is bad

User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7413 posts, RR: 14
Reply 11, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 1945 times:



Quoting AirportGuy1971 (Reply 8):
Fall advance bookings are weaker so it might only add $10 million to the cash position by the time we get to mid-August.

Fall bookings are weak at every airline. When kids go back to school there is a natural reduction in bookings. Just listen to any of the airline earnings conference calls.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 9):
Your assumption fails to take into account:

I'm taking that into account. My August cash reduction is equal to April less April's special items. September is the worst month of the year so I think I'm being pretty conservative.

By the way, is saying their cash position is going to go from $59 million in June to $79 million at the end of October gloom and doom? Please post your forecast.


User currently offlineAirportGuy1971 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 355 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1924 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 11):
Fall bookings are weak at every airline

Your statement is a difinitive statement of fact rgarding Frontier's advance bookings. Back it up with factual information or identify it as your opinion. You have a pretty obvious bias and like to present opinions as facts.

Please back up your claim that their bookings are weak.


User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7413 posts, RR: 14
Reply 13, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1901 times:



Quoting AirportGuy1971 (Reply 12):
Please back up your claim that their bookings are weak.

I'm not saying they are abnormally weak versus last year. I'm saying Fall bookings are weaker than the current Summer period. For example, in 2007 they had a 77.9% LF in September and an 88.5% in July. In 2006 they had a 81.9% in July and a 67.6% in September. It's the same every year. It's just normal seasonality.


User currently offlineAirportGuy1971 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 355 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1879 times:

Please show how this fall's bookings for Frontier are weak.

User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7413 posts, RR: 14
Reply 15, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1864 times:



Quoting AirportGuy1971 (Reply 14):
Please show how this fall's bookings for Frontier are weak.

You are arguing that September isn't a weak period for airline bookings. I've already posted historic data. I can post more if you'd like?


User currently onlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 6046 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (6 years 3 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 1823 times:



Quoting AirportGuy1971 (Reply 14):
Please show how this fall's bookings for Frontier are weak.

It doesn't matter if your F9 UA or WN Fall bookings at every airline are always weaker then they are during the summer that is simply the normal demand curve that every airline has been dealing with since the invention of summer vacation... Smile



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
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