Flycarib From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (14 years 5 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1252 times:
Hi all, if this topic has been put out and discussed already please bear with me. I've heard that in the next 5 to 10 years there's going to be a shortage of pilots due to retirement and thus a huge hole in the industry. Is this true?? Any comments or web sites to check out would be greatly appreciated.
Mit From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 166 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (14 years 5 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1228 times:
Competition/technology is making flight cheaper to all and economic growth is making flight more affordable to many. Both of those are longterm trends pointing to increased demand for pilots. There aren't many longterm factors that will decrease demand. (One could imagine pilotless airplanes, major energy / enviromental crises or virtual reality teleconferencing, but those don't seem likely anytime soon.)
As for supply, the market is tight right now. (Flight schools have real problems keeping instructors.) The baby boomers start hitting 60 in four years, and the military is turning out significantly fewer pilots than in decades past. However, the "echo boom" will enter the workforce soon, and a tight market will attract plenty of people. And the airlines will do what it takes to get pilots. In the past, they have even hired single-engine private pilots! Maybe we'll see US majors extensively using ab initio programs.
So will there be a "shortage?" Depends what you mean, but in terms of pilot job opportunities, the future looks good.
Flyboy767 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (14 years 5 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 1211 times:
According to the Airbus market report there is going to be a major shortage of pilots in the next 10-15 years...apparently it could get so bad that the majors could be hiring straight outta college...so if you're lookin for a job in the airlines and you're in your teens like me then things look pretty good for you.
Pilot1113 From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 2333 posts, RR: 11
Reply 5, posted (14 years 5 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1181 times:
I don't think they'll drop the number of hours or hire out of college. The airlines follow basic economic theory and are thus, cheap.
I could see them dropping certain routes that aren't as profitable as some and consolidating flights. This wouldn't hurt the business person as many are now flocking to fractional ownership programs (ie: FlexJet and NetJet) or are buying their own aircraft. As there is no mandatory retirement on business flying, they can hire recently retired airline pilots.
The only people, that I foresee, being hurt are the leisure traveller. Many of these people only travel at certain times of the year, so they don't care if a Monday flight from JFK to ORD is dropped (or consolidated on to a bigger aircraft at a later time), just as long as they get there.