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AA Drops ATL-LGA, Trims STL  
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7192 posts, RR: 13
Posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 7775 times:

ATL-LGA ends in November.

Also in November, STL loses 9 more flights.

STL to:

CLT 3 flights to 2
EWR 6 to 4
ICT 3 to 2
MKE 4 to 3
MSP 6 to 5
MSY 5 to 4
PHL 4 to 3
SAT 2 to 1

38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAAJFKSJUBKLYN From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 7710 times:

Your sources for the LGA-ATL, its still bookable through December, and is a very successful route for AA from a revenue standpoint, so this makes no sense.

User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7192 posts, RR: 13
Reply 2, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 7649 times:



Quoting AAJFKSJUBKLYN (Reply 1):
Your sources for the LGA-ATL, its still bookable through December, and is a very successful route for AA from a revenue standpoint, so this makes no sense.

It's gone from OAG. Usually there is a lag. It won't show up in Sabre until Sunday or Monday.

Flights Per Week in OAG
July 28
August 28
September 25
October 25
November 0
December 0


User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7192 posts, RR: 13
Reply 3, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 7621 times:

The load factors were well below average...

Sep07 Load Factor 59.09
Oct07 Load Factor 59.25
Nov07 Load Factor 62.41
Dec07 Load Factor 59.61
Jan08 Load Factor 49.01
Feb08 Load Factor 52.53
Mar08 Load Factor 62.23
Apr08 Load Factor 60.27


User currently offlineEXAAUADL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 7595 times:



Quoting AAJFKSJUBKLYN (Reply 1):
Your sources for the LGA-ATL, its still bookable through December, and is a very successful route for AA from a revenue standpoint, so this makes no sense.

They just upgraded to all mainline. Maybe AA lost a large contract that wanted ATL-LGA, or maybe it will fund MD-80 retirements. PErsonally I ratehr see AA cuts ATL-LGA than ORD or DFW hubs flights.


User currently offlineFlyboy7974 From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 1540 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 7450 times:

If airlines continue cuts such as these from the high density slot-controlled airports that are so coveted through the U.S, it's time for DOT to consider reallocating some of the unused slots. Use them or lose them because there has to be a list of airlines that'd like to offer or wish to increase service to locations such as LGA, DCA, etc..

Like we were just mentioning about SNA when the topic arose that an Air Canada flew YVR-SNA for its proving flights the following days there in SNA, the airport supplies a small list of airlines on the wait list for slots there in SNA. Besides past lottery losers, would there be anywhere to find lists such as these for airlines on hold currently for additional slots at some of those east coast airports or is it specifically just a waiting game until an allocation is prepared by the DOT to which airlines must submit exact route and detailed proposals?

Although everybody is hurting right now in the airline industry, or most, I'd still think there'd have to be a number of smaller carriers that'd still rather offer added or increased services to say LGA or DCA compared to other routes they might already be serving while to the larger carriers these routes simply seem to be surplus now that it's time to start cutting some of the bottom line.


User currently offlineAtrude777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5692 posts, RR: 52
Reply 6, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 7301 times:

Damn, if thats true, but these are RJ cuts so not too surprising to me either.

Mainline so far continues to work for STL last I checked.

Alex



Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
User currently offlineEvan767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 2957 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 7251 times:

Why would American even attempt to go up against Delta's hourly, 16 dailies ATL-LGA? How's CVG-LGA doing? A quick glance at seat maps from aa.com reveals that the loads definitely aren't too promising!


The proper term is "on final" not "on finals" bud...
User currently offline777STL From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3647 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 7216 times:



Quoting Evan767 (Reply 7):
A quick glance at seat maps from aa.com reveals that the loads definitely aren't too promising!

Seat maps on airline websites are a poor indicator.



PHX based
User currently offlineEvan767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 2957 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 7074 times:



Quoting 777STL (Reply 8):
Seat maps on airline websites are a poor indicator.

I've heard that plenty of times before, however, when only half the seats are filled it makes me think the flight ain't makin' much money! Sure, they can all be businessmen, but 50% loads just won't cut it these days.



The proper term is "on final" not "on finals" bud...
User currently offlineJoeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 937 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 7068 times:



Quoting 777STL (Reply 8):
Seat maps on airline websites are a poor indicator.

This is argued again and again and if you know the different policies of the different airlines, they can be quite accurate. If you don't know how they work, you're right, they aren't worth anything.


User currently offlineAJMIA From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 733 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 6993 times:

I am surprised to see this one go.

They were just recently going to increase it to 5x daily but pulled back.

Wow that is going to be a lot of slots at LGA. I imagine if the DOT decides not to retire these slots AA will have to add the flights back in rather then see the slots go to someone else.

AJMIA



Lady it's a jet... not a kite.
User currently offline777STL From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3647 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 6937 times:



Quoting Joeljack (Reply 10):
This is argued again and again and if you know the different policies of the different airlines, they can be quite accurate. If you don't know how they work, you're right, they aren't worth anything.

They're worthless, any frequent flyer worth a salt knows that. Try ExpertFlyer if you want a useful indicator.



PHX based
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7615 posts, RR: 24
Reply 13, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 6926 times:



Quoting Evan767 (Reply 9):
I've heard that plenty of times before, however, when only half the seats are filled it makes me think the flight ain't makin' much money! Sure, they can all be businessmen, but 50% loads just won't cut it these days.

Unless you have access to a reservation system (Apollo, Sabre, etc.) , youll have absolutely no clue about how loads are doing. Dont even pretend you do.


Quoting Evan767 (Reply 7):
Why would American even attempt to go up against Delta's hourly, 16 dailies ATL-LGA?

Airlines compete with each other. Its just the way the industry works. Personally I dont care about ATL-LGA. I have little use for Atlanta or New York City (or any place on the East Coast), but I hate that AA is leaving the market.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinePanAm330 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2679 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 6895 times:



Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 4):
PErsonally I ratehr see AA cuts ATL-LGA than ORD or DFW hubs flights.

 checkmark  Absolutely.

Quoting Evan767 (Reply 7):
Why would American even attempt to go up against Delta's hourly, 16 dailies ATL-LGA?

On the same token, why would DL try NYC-Chicago?

Quoting Evan767 (Reply 7):
How's CVG-LGA doing?

It was announced months ago that it's being dropped in the first week of November.


User currently offlineAAJFKSJUBKLYN From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 6845 times:



Quoting 777STL (Reply 8):
Seat maps on airline websites are a poor indicator.

Exactly..look at available seats signed on as a Premium customer vs someone who doesn't log into AA.com..Its a different story. I personally have heard that the ATL flights are very good money makers. In fact there was a post in here recently that indicated LGA-ATL was in the top 10 money maker list or somewhere near.


User currently offlineAAJFKSJUBKLYN From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (6 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 6831 times:

Also, load factors don't mean didily either....how many times we going to discuss load factors vs. profit..............the two dont talk hand in hand.

User currently offlineCrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 787 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 6483 times:
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Any insight as to which flight MKE is losing?

My guess is MKE will likey loose the early AM (05:40) flight to STL - just like we lost our early AM flight to ORD. Probably a smart move since in my experience the flights were usually light going out.

Why would anyone wants to get up at those God awful hours just to go sit in another airport (either ORD or STL) for 3 more hours waiting for your next connection? Once you make that mistake, there aren't too many people that are willing do it again! Although I will miss the Mexican breakfasts in STL.

MKE passengers are really going to start to feel the squeeze going into 2009.


User currently offlineYellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6176 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 6433 times:



Quoting AAJFKSJUBKLYN (Reply 15):
Exactly..look at available seats signed on as a Premium customer vs someone who doesn't log into AA.com..Its a different story. I personally have heard that the ATL flights are very good money makers. In fact there was a post in here recently that indicated LGA-ATL was in the top 10 money maker list or somewhere near.

Ok..I am lazy to do a search and so I will probably ask a dumb question...

But lets say that a DL seat map says a 50% LF....is that more than likely an accurate representation, a lower figure than it actually is or higher than it actually is?



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineQQflyboy From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 2282 posts, RR: 13
Reply 19, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6218 times:

According to a SABRE file that details market changes, which was last updated July 28, there is no mention of LGA-ATL ending. The Star record will be updated again Monday, after the weekend schedule load, so we'll know for sure then.

On one hand, this is surprising since the route has reportedly been a strong performer from the beginning. Despite the load factors mentioned above, the yield is likely very high compared to other routes of this length. In addition, it's a route that was highly sought after and demanded by AA's most frequent frequent fliers. On the other hand, nothing surprises me in this industry any more.



The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
User currently offlineTVNWZ From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 2389 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6135 times:



Quoting 777STL (Reply 12):
They're worthless, any frequent flyer worth a salt knows that. Try ExpertFlyer if you want a useful indicator.



Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 13):
Unless you have access to a reservation system (Apollo, Sabre, etc.) , youll have absolutely no clue about how loads are doing. Dont even pretend you do.

KVS tool is great too. It is a little pricy but worth it.

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 18):
But lets say that a DL seat map says a 50% LF....is that more than likely an accurate representation, a lower figure than it actually is or higher than it actually is?

The missing piece is how many tickets are out there that are unassigned seats as well as the number of blocked off seats.

I am a very frequent flyer..150-K miles this yeer. I will look at a NW seat map two days out and a third of the plane will be open. A day out and a fourth of the plane will be open. The next morning the plane goes out full. The load factor was not 66% two days out, 75% one day out.


User currently offlineBOAC911 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 453 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 5689 times:
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Quoting Enilria (Reply 3):
The load factors were well below average...

Meaning??? Have you noticed in what direction fares are heading?......and not just on this route!


User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6570 posts, RR: 50
Reply 22, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 5611 times:

ATL-LGA is a goner. Last flight in the market is 01Nov.

User currently offlineMOBflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1209 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 5601 times:



Quoting Evan767 (Reply 9):
Sure, they can all be businessmen, but 50% loads just won't cut it these days.

50% does work for many routes indeed. Its all about revenue quality. Obviously, its better to have 85% AND quality revenue, but the optimum fares most often does not produce the optimum load factor.

Quoting CrAAzy (Reply 17):

My guess is MKE will likey loose the early AM (05:40) flight to STL - just like we lost our early AM flight to ORD. Probably a smart move since in my experience the flights were usually light going out.

You may be correct, but it is important to remember that the very early AM flights are almost always RONs.


User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6570 posts, RR: 50
Reply 24, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 5567 times:

Here's the new schedule MKE-STL:


1 *AA 5297 /YBH MKESTL 0540 0705 ERJ 0
KMVWNSQLGO
2 *AA 5522 /YBH MKESTL 0940 1100 ERJ 0
KMVWNSQLGO
3 *AA 5554 /YBH X6 MKESTL 1920 2040 ERJ 0
KMVWNSQLGO


25 Enilria : I suspect this has a lot to do with AirTran. AirTran makes it hard to raise fares to cover fuel increases. AA probably decided to let DL deal with Ai
26 KcrwFlyer : You're just talking about this route in particular due to the presence of a FL and the amount of seats already in the market........right? I'll give
27 MOBflyer : While this route was definitely not making money for AA, (Stage length adjusted RASM ranking of 401 out of 423, RASM of $0.09394; and a yield of $0.1
28 CrAAzy : Thanks! Looks like we're keeping the AM flight. Combined STL, DFW, ORD flights should be at 9 daily come November (xSat). 05:40 STL 07:55 ORD 09:40 S
29 Enilria : It's possible to make money with a 60% LF. There are routes like DCA-LGA where a 60% LF can make money, but there aren't many. If the market has any
30 CrAAzy : Yep, sorry to both. Not surehow that happened ?!?
31 Wjcandee : First, seat maps don't tell you anything you really need to know. And it's summer, when biz travel is down. But the answer to your question is this:
32 Akizidy214 : What is your source???
33 LAXdude1023 : Its gone. I checked in apollo.
34 EXAAUADL : Geez DFW-MKE is down to 2 flights
35 JCS17 : It wasn't primarily aimed at DL's ATL-originating passengers. Instead, it was for their loyal, huge metro-New York originating passengers. The simple
36 QQflyboy : It is now listed as being discontinued November 1 in the SABRE Star record Market Changes, however, it's still bookable through November and December.
37 Enilria : Posted in reply #2 I appreciate the affirmation. Apparently OAG (or me) isn't a good enough source!
38 Jetdeltamsy : how do you know? Source please.
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