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If Pan Am 1 Were Still Alive...  
User currently offlineKonaB777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2416 times:

If the original Pan Am were still in business, what do you think their fleet would consist of? I would assume the B777, B767, B757, & A320, with possible an A380 order in the works since they were a huge trunk route carrier (JFK-LHR, etc.).

15 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineNrlcd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2357 times:

Boeing 747-400 as well.

User currently offlineN202PA From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 1562 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2343 times:

Kona,

Much as I like the Triple-7, I have no doubt whatsoever that it would not be a part of Pan Am's fleet. Here's why:

In the mid-80s, Pan Am developed a strong relationship with Airbus, getting discounts on A300s, A310s, and A320s (which were later cancelled and delivered to Braniff II). We won't go into the various reasons why they'd gone for Airbus instead of Boeing and McDD.

If PA had continued, they probably would have flown the A300s and A310s through the 90s, continuing with the 727s until the late 90s, and perhaps even til today. I honestly believe that they would then have gone with the A320 family for short runs. The 747s would probably have been retired at the earliest possible convenience (ie, mid-90s) and replaced with 767-300ERs, given the nature of their remaining routes in Dec. 1991 (MIA/JFK-South America, and MIA-CDG). They might have picked up some secondhand 737-200s or 737-300s in the early 90s to serve the short-run routes to the Caribbean and intra-florida/southeast. These aircraft probably would either still be flying today or have just been replaced within the last two years with A319s.

In short, if the original Pan Am were flying today, I think their fleet would consist of: 767-300ER, A300, 727-200, A321, A320, A319/732/733. The Express division would probably still have been running out of MIA, with ATR-42s and J-31s still plying the Bahama routes.

I'd like to say that PA would still have been running large aircraft like the 777 or the A340, but practically, it would have been impossible. PA would be, essentially, what TWA was a year ago--an airline flying a small, inercontinental fleet, trying to stay solvent and recreate itself in the face of staggering competition.

Of course, it's all a moot point, anyway, because there really isn't any way that PA could have survived to this day, short of a divinely-ordained miracle.


User currently offlineCody From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1932 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2301 times:

I agree with N202PA except I don't believe they would have had 767's at all. I believe instead they would be using the A310 as their long range aircraft. 747's would have been gone at least 5 years ago. I think they would still have 727's around and again as N202PA said they would've had 737's for a stint before trading them in for A319's. So all in all today they would have A300's, A310's, A320's, and A319's as well as a about 20 727's. I think they would still have that MIA hub with service to Latin America and the Carribean and they may have reopened Europe a little to London, Paris, and Frankfurt. The only route to JFK would be from Miami. It is fun to pretend isn't it? Boy I hope we are not having this conversation about TWA in the future.

User currently offlineVirginA340 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 15 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2284 times:

If PAN AM 1 (aka corporation of murderurs according to the families of PA 103) wasn't stupid to have lax security at FRA in the 1980s due to Dan Sonenson's incompetance (Head of PAN AM Security at FRA) Dan Salazar (FAA) to give PA security waivers to skip hand searches on unacompanied bags on flights originating from Europe including PA 103 and if the bad management of Thomas Plaskett and Martin Shugrue had never existed (My best friend and his family were killed due to their neglagence) then PA would consist of Airbus aircraft considering that the already had A300s, A310s and A320s on order after getting a sweet discount. PAN AM would've retired the gas guzzling 747-100s and 200s in the mid or early 90s and replacing them with A330/A340 family for fleet commonality and that would've save the cash strapped PA lots of money. I think PA would've been a good candidate for the 757 for South American and intercontinental routes and the A330/A340 family would be good for Trans Atlantic Routes as well as destinations out of LHR like say DEL. PA was still flying to DEL in the early 90s shortly before calling it quits. As for transpacific PA like Delta and AA would be fighting to get slots from China and Japan. I don't thinks it's too hard to get SYD slots.
Some of you are probably wondering why I'm talking about PA if I hate them so much. I hate the management and the incompetant employees as well as the FAA and other Government agencies(Did not let the flying public know about the Helsinki Warning) that let this happen in the first place. I would've not hated PA if they ousted the bad management and PA employees at FRA responsible and take responsiblity; but they did non of that. I'm not so angry now like I was back in 1988. But If you can't warn them!!! Then you had better protect them!!!



"FUIMUS"
User currently offlineDETA737 From Portugal, joined Oct 2000, 612 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2267 times:

I think it would have been horrible if Pan Am had just lingered along like TWA with a slow and painful death. My hypothetical situation pertains to if Pan Am had stayed strong after deregulation I think their fleet today would consist of 747-400 for Asia-Pacific and high density/capacity routes such as JFK-LHR, FRA etc. I think A340s would have replaced many of the 747-100s. The reason I think they would have gone with these instead of the 777 is because as said above PA had begun developing a strong relationship with Airbus. I think they would still have the A310s flying to many European destinations like BRU, LIS, STU etc. I think they would have A330s beginning to arrive to replace these around now. There A320s would have begun to arrive around the time of the collapse of the company and would with A319s and A321s form the basis of the shorthaul fleet. If they were as strong they were in the 1970s they could have also been a launch customer for the A380 or 747X. There A310s and A300s would most likely be in process of replacement right now. Here's how I would envision their fleet:
Remember these are estimates assuming that they had continued to grow throughout the 1980s and 1990s and become as big as UAL or AMR, and it's just my two cents anyway.

35 747-400
15 747-200
40 A340-300
10 A330-200
35 A310-300
10 A310-200
15 A300B4
300 A319/A320/A321
50 737-200/300
(on order A330-200, A340-600)


User currently offlineGreg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2253 times:

Pan Am's relationship with Airbus was only fleeting at best. They were the only one's willing to extend them credit on aircraft after nine years of losses.
Had Pan Am survived in a relatively healthy financial manner, I believe they would have continued there strong relationship with both Boeing and Airbus.
I don't have any doubts that they would have chosen the 777 since in all likelihood they would have been on the original design committee.


User currently offlineTheCroupier From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2250 times:

Pan Am's operational style - intercontinental service, with limited domestic routes - was doomed to failure even by the late 70s. JFK was obsoleted (in a sense) when a whole host of US cities started gaining nonstops to Europe, namely Houston, Dallas and Atlanta.

But that said, had they survived Pan Am's choice for primary intl routes would have been the 777. Boeing scored a PR coup with Pan Am's launch of the 747 and they would have cut a deal to get a repeat performance


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8030 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 2241 times:

I think if Pan Am I was able to thrive in the 1980's they would have definitely been one of the launch customers of the Airbus A330/A340 series, placing orders in 1988. PA would be flying A330's on trans-Atlantic routes from JFK/IAD/MIA to Europe and A340's on their trans-Pacific routes. I would guess that PA would have about 35-40 A330-300's and 50-70 A340-300's.

User currently offlineKonaB777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2226 times:

Now that I think of it, Pan Am would probably be moving towards an all Airbus fleet to minimize cost of pilot training, etc. They would be getting rid of the last of the 727s, possibly starting to retire the A300/A310, and moving towards operating the A320/A330/A340, & possible the A380 for the big trunk routes. Though most of us Americans won't want to admit it, the cost efficiency of operating such similar aircraft would be very benificial to an airline in dire financial straits such as PanAm 1.

User currently offlineVirginA340 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 15 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2220 times:

Oh and one more thing PAN AM would probably be no longer flying intra Euro routes since BA and other Euro airlines have well covered the territory since the collapse of the Berlin Wall. PA would be forced to drop the into Euro routes and focus on direct routes to it's hubs in JFK and MIA out of LHR, CDG, FCO, CPH, FRA and so on due to fierce competition by BA, AF, Lufthansa, Aliltalia, SAS, KLM, Swissair and other Euro carriers. For those of you who metioned 747-400s on the Pacific routes; bear in mind that PA sold them to UAL in 1985 so that would put them back to square one on that issue. They would be fighting for slots along with AA and DL. Those three would be on the outside looking in on UAL, CO and NWA.


"FUIMUS"
User currently offlineHlywdCatft From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 5321 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 2203 times:

According to one of my books from the late 1980's Pan Am had actually ordered 16 A320s and 12 A310-300s

User currently offlineBostonBeau From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 464 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2191 times:

If Pan Am 1 were still alive, I think they would be practicing what they unfortunately learned all too late: that shorter, high-ticket routes like the successful Pan Am Shuttle often beat the long, thin highly-discounted intercontinental routes.

User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9191 posts, RR: 15
Reply 13, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 2169 times:

If Pan Am 1 is still around, I expect to see B 747-400s as well as B 777-200ERs in their fleet for the long haul routes. So as B 767-300ERs.

I hope to see a B 747-400 in PANAM 3's livery some day.  Smile

Hope this helps!


User currently offlineDETA737 From Portugal, joined Oct 2000, 612 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 2141 times:

I think Pan Am would have gone with the A340 instead of the 777 because their 747s would be in need of replacement by the mid 90s and the A340 came out earlier. Also Pan Am had been building a relationship with Airbus and they could have probably gotten these planes really cheap since Airbus would have loved to have a US airline flying the A340. It would have all come down to economics for PA.

User currently offlineGreg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (13 years 8 months 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 2139 times:

The Airbus/PanAm relationship was just a shadow of their relationship with Boeing (45+ years). They would be flying Airbus AND Boeing. But the flagships would be the 744 and 777.
At least I think.


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