Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
50+ European Airlines To Go Bust Analysts Say  
User currently offlineOta1 From Germany, joined Apr 2008, 399 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 14077 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Analysts of Blue Oar Securities say that more than 50 European airlines will not survive the next winter. Their list includes both LCCs as well as legacies such as AZ, OA, MA, SK, LO, OS (if not bought).

Here is the story, sorry German only.

34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4402 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 14044 times:

How can they know what the oil prize will be?

Has anybody ever heard of "Blue Oar" as a wizard in Aviation? They claim themselves to be specialized ins small and mid size business...


User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Reply 2, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 14033 times:

The article spreads common-place "news" and sells them without proof as facts.
There is no way that this winter 50 ( !!!!! ) airlines in Europe will go bust -that's kind of cheap street-journalism that increases the doubts towards any written article about aviation from civil "experts".
There will be acquisitions ,mergers,some failures-but far from the 50 companies mark mentioned in the article ! Could have been written by a "Der Spiegel" office clerk..



Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlinePlobax From France, joined Jan 2008, 116 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 14022 times:

Don t know about the others, but AZ will stay. No doubt.

User currently offlineOta1 From Germany, joined Apr 2008, 399 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 13993 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Actually I don't believe in that analysis, but I thought I'd post it anyway.

While I think that AZ and OA might not be around for too long at least in their current form I don't see SK going bust as it basically consists of 4 companies which are unlikely to vanish all at the same time.

Nevertheless, regarding the recent results of AF/KL, BA, IB and the likes I suppose "easy" times might be over for European airlines, at least for now.


User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10766 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 13992 times:

Stupid article. No real sources, only the notoriously Leary quoted, who, of cause, predicts Easyjet falling, while Ryanair soaring. Its Ryanair, which is introuble at the moment. The new laws, that will no longer see ads with "1 Euro" flights (as that was a lie anyway), will certainly not help Leary´s airline.

User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 6, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 13935 times:

B*llocks.

I am a credit analyst - its is my job to assess the creditworthiness of airlines and tell our clients who is going to struggle and who isnt.

50+ airlines is utter, utter rubbish. We may see 5-10 carriers close for business but 50+ is stupid.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineBrightCedars From Belgium, joined Nov 2004, 1289 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 13884 times:

It's just plain stupid! Sure there will be troubled times but I'm not seeing major or national airlines go bust. There are those we can point the finger at (AZ and OA) but these have more lives than even a cat and they haven't died the first time yet! I don't think the others mentioned are in such bad situations that they will just shut the door, there may be drastic measures taken at many airlines, that is a fact. Sounds like it's time somebody gets fired or a small consulting company goes bust.


I want the European Union flag on airliners.net!
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10766 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 13722 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 6):
50+ airlines is utter, utter rubbish. We may see 5-10 carriers close for business but 50+ is stupid.

Thats what I would guess, too. And that fuel prices are going down considerably at the moment is helping the airlines a bit at least. Alitalia must fall if not illegal practices are used by the dubious government Italy has at the moment, and a few smaller LCC I expect as well to close shop.


User currently offlineCV990Coronado From South Africa, joined Nov 2007, 346 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 13572 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

AZ and OA will probably outlast us all. It seems that normal laws don't apply to them


SSC-707B727 737-741234SP757/762/3/772/WA300/10/319/2/1-342/3/6-880-DAM-VC10 TRD 111 Ju52-DC8/9/10/11-YS11-748-VCV DH4B L
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10766 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 13436 times:



Quoting CV990Coronado (Reply 9):
AZ and OA will probably outlast us all. It seems that normal laws don't apply to them

I fear so. But there are strict EU laws which forbid subsidies to stricken companies if this means disadvantage for fitter competitors in other countries. AZ MUST do better or die, and they won´t do better. I assume the EU won´t be patient much longer. To pump in 300 million tax money every few months is illegal.


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4402 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 13322 times:

If Alitalia would just sell all planes, cease operations and remain a pension system for mediocre local politicians and their family clans it would be cheaper to the tax payer.

All those who really want to work will find work at the future airlines.


User currently offlineJanmnastami From Italy, joined Apr 2008, 828 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 13000 times:

Regarding to AZ, the plan of the advisor will be revealed in September and, in my opinion, it will be saved.

The plan of Intesa-SanPaolo contains an injection of about 0,7-1 billion euro from private investors (the same Intesa-SanPaolo, some entrepreneurs as Benetton, Gavio, Ligresti, Riva, Marcegaglia and there are some contacts with Nomura and Morgan Stanley).

The orders of AP for new Airbus planes will be used to modernize the fleet of AZ (for example, replacing the old MD80s).

At the moment, AZ has a market share of 40%, the group formed by AZ and AP will have a market share of 65-70%, comparable to the fact that in their national markets AF and LH have high market shares.

For sure, will be used a new version of the Marzano law, the bad parts of the old AZ (the debt and the redundancy of human resources) will stay in the old AZ on which will be applied the procedures of the new law (the "commissariamento" and the "cassaintegrazione"), while there will be a new company formed by AZ+AP.

There will be about 5,000-6,000 workers fired (the plan of AF had 7,000 fired).

Regarding to international alliances, there are some rumours, but I think that it's better not to write anything about rumours.


User currently offlineBuyantUkhaa From Mongolia, joined May 2004, 2907 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 12973 times:

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 11):
If Alitalia would just sell all planes, cease operations and remain a pension system for mediocre local politicians and their family clans it would be cheaper to the tax payer.

:D great plan...

[Edited 2008-08-06 07:56:21]


I scratch my head, therefore I am.
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4034 posts, RR: 13
Reply 14, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 12313 times:

If that is the case, it looks like the United States in the 80s. After deregulation in 1979 dozens of airlines were started every year. A few years later, dozens of airlines were going bust every year.

The airline industry of the United States today is the airline industry of tomorrow in Europe.



Stop pop up ads
User currently offlineCloud4000 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 641 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 12145 times:



Quoting Incitatus (Reply 14):
If that is the case, it looks like the United States in the 80s. After deregulation in 1979 dozens of airlines were started every year. A few years later, dozens of airlines were going bust every year.

The airline industry of the United States today is the airline industry of tomorrow in Europe.

I also believe with the advent of the EU, there is no need for each country to have a legacy carrier for strictly political reasons. Now it's all business: many airlines will go bust and many new airlines will emerge.



Boston, USA
User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 27171 posts, RR: 60
Reply 16, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 11481 times:



Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 7):
(AZ and OA) but these have more lives than even a cat



Quoting CV990Coronado (Reply 9):
AZ and OA will probably outlast us all. I

LOL.... they have been closing OA since I was working there 12 years ago ....They will re launch downsize and probably be ok if they get the right management and decisions. Also shed as many staff as they can that were put there by politics.


User currently offlineVv701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7647 posts, RR: 17
Reply 17, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11482 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 10):
But there are strict EU laws which forbid subsidies to stricken companies if this means disadvantage for fitter competitors in other countries.

But were those "strict EU laws" enforced or are, for example, the Italian and Greek governments still keeping AZ and OA solvent? My observations are that EU laws are rarely enforced when they are broken by an EU national government.

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 14):
The airline industry of the United States today is the airline industry of tomorrow in Europe.

If it is most European airlines are doomed as there is no such thing as Chapter 11 Protection here in Europe and most American legacy carriers have been in Chapter 11 Protection in the not too distant past. If this were true then it would mean that 50+ European airlines would go bust. But, fortunately, the airline industry of the USA today is not the European airline industry of tomorrow and the environments they operate in are quite different. So others' estimates of perhaps a dozen going out of business is much more likely.


User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11296 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 10):
I fear so. But there are strict EU laws which forbid subsidies to stricken companies if this means disadvantage for fitter competitors in other countries. AZ MUST do better or die, and they won´t do better. I assume the EU won´t be patient much longer. To pump in 300 million tax money every few months is illegal.

"Alitalia won EU permission to receive Italian government aid in 2001, making the carrier ineligible for further handouts until 2011 under European rules."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...20601102&sid=avKBHKOKJp4w&refer=uk

Seems they just need to hang on until 2011.


User currently offline413X3 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1983 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11130 times:

Airlines were already hurting, now higher fuel prices mean they are hemorrhaging even more money every day. I believe the airline industry has a case of the classic over saturation of the market place. Every airline starts off and wants to rush in and do everything, short haul, medium haul, long haul. I just don't get it why they don't stick to one model, every LCC comes in and does well, then starts getting bigger and literally becomes a legacy model, loses money, and complains about high costs low yields and how they cannot sustain their business.

Cry me a river. You don't have to do everything, just as someone above pointed out with the EU, there is no reason every country has to have their own flagship carrier. Maybe have a local carrier that does short hops around your country to connect passengers from other big money backed airlines such as British Airways, KLM, Air France, etc.

I believe that is the future of air travel. Few small far reaching airlines like Emirates who can afford to fly everywhere under the sun, and then smaller flagship carriers that fly between big cities that the big airlines fly to and connect the small ones.


User currently offlineLeskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 70
Reply 20, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11018 times:



Quoting Khobar (Reply 18):
Seems they just need to hang on until 2011.

They wouldn't be able to hang out until 20.11(.2008) if the Italian government didn't constantly invent new and creative ways of channelling money into AZ, thereby constantly throwing good money into a hole that has already sunk far too much of it.

I hope that, for once, the EU won't continue dragging the issue from one office to another, but finally take a decision that AZ has to repay whatever moneys they've received since 2001... for example just this year.



Smile - it confuses people!
User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 10767 times:



Quoting Leskova (Reply 20):

They wouldn't be able to hang out until 20.11(.2008) if the Italian government didn't constantly invent new and creative ways of channelling money into AZ, thereby constantly throwing good money into a hole that has already sunk far too much of it.

I hope that, for once, the EU won't continue dragging the issue from one office to another, but finally take a decision that AZ has to repay whatever moneys they've received since 2001... for example just this year.

But the point is that the EU has "strict laws" they choose not to enforce thus defeating the purpose of having such laws to begin with. Who's to say such direct subsidies aren't injected elsewhere under similar circumstances?


User currently offlineJanmnastami From Italy, joined Apr 2008, 828 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 10361 times:

The point is that AZ will be divided into two parts: a "bad AZ" with debts and workers fired, which will go under controlled bankruptcy and a "new AZ" with the fleet of AZ and AP.

The loan of 300 millions of euro will remain into the "bad AZ", so even if the EU will oblige AZ to give back it to the state, there will be no problem for the "new AZ".


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25700 posts, RR: 22
Reply 23, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 9985 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 6):
50+ airlines is utter, utter rubbish. We may see 5-10 carriers close for business but 50+ is stupid.

Well, roughly 25 airlines (worldwide, not just Europe) have gone out of business so far this year.


User currently offlineDTWAGENT From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1283 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 9802 times:

I can see AZ going under. But, not 50 airlines in Europe alone. If that does happen someone needs to look into at what they are doing to go under. And Oil prices are dropping like a rock. Which is good and I hope it keeps going down.

Chuck


25 Hardiwv : According to the study the following 9 airlines have more likelihood of survival: 1. LH-LX 2. AF-KL 3. EasyJet 4. Ryanair 5. BA 6. TAP 7. IB 8. Air Li
26 BrightCedars : I think that one should specify whether we're talking about survival as independent entities or survival as entities at all. If you tell me 50 airline
27 BAStew : I think 50+ airlines going bust over the winter is possible though it does sound a high amount. I am always suprised when I read in news articles that
28 Post contains links Ota1 : here is a list of airlines that went out of business this year (not all because of bankruptcy though)
29 BrightCedars : As this list shows very well, few are the major brands and carriers that are in this list, the most notable of which would be Aloha. Very few of the
30 NCB : The problem is that many people don't like the EU dictating laws in their own country. AZ is more competition to its domestic rivals than to anyone e
31 BuyantUkhaa : Profoundly untrue. Europe has an internal market, and AZ is distorting it. Yes, because a private company would bring as many tourists without suckin
32 Incitatus : It turns out that in the process of determining what is best for Italy, the Italian government decided to join multi-lateral bodies that have common
33 VV701 : The national European governments should have thought about this before they ceded responsibility for the regulation and control of commercial aviati
34 CYatUK : Let's not change the subject to politics. I do respect your opinion about the EU and I am not surprised as this is the opinion of the majority of Bri
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Turkish Airlines To Go On Strike posted Mon Aug 6 2007 21:44:17 by KL911
Our Airports Are Going To Go Bust posted Sat Jul 14 2007 10:25:44 by Glom
European Airlines To Macau? posted Thu Sep 29 2005 08:10:04 by RootsAir
Is Helios Going To Go Bust Like Valujet? posted Wed Aug 17 2005 21:33:00 by Drinkstrolley
Latest Airline To Go Bust Is... Air Bourbon posted Fri Nov 26 2004 16:05:26 by Backfire
European Airlines To Pakistan? posted Mon Apr 12 2004 21:35:31 by Bigpappa
European Airlines To AMM posted Wed Mar 3 2004 10:50:08 by Dukebluedevil
Turkish Airlines To Go Daily To Pakistan posted Sat Aug 2 2003 00:09:07 by Airmale
Next Airline(s) To Go Bust? posted Mon Jul 29 2002 07:48:49 by 9V-SVE
European Airlines To Hanoi? posted Tue Jun 25 2002 20:40:52 by Svenvdm
Turkish Airlines To Go On Strike posted Mon Aug 6 2007 21:44:17 by KL911
Our Airports Are Going To Go Bust posted Sat Jul 14 2007 10:25:44 by Glom
European Airlines To Macau? posted Thu Sep 29 2005 08:10:04 by RootsAir
Is Helios Going To Go Bust Like Valujet? posted Wed Aug 17 2005 21:33:00 by Drinkstrolley
Latest Airline To Go Bust Is... Air Bourbon posted Fri Nov 26 2004 16:05:26 by Backfire