Cloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2425 posts, RR: 9 Posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5716 times:
From W08:
Double daily to Vancouver, down from triple daily and then 17x weekly, 835/6 chopped;
Double daily to Los Angeles, down from triple daily, 884/5 chopped;
Sydney goes 4x daily, up from 25x weekly;
Perth goes daily, up from 5x weekly;
Brisbane goes 10x weekly, up from daily, new flights 112/3;
253/4 to Heathrow is now a B744, up from an A343;
Amsterdam is now a B744, up from an A343;
Previously announced:
Dragonair to launch daily Hanoi;
Vancouver down from triple daily to 17x weekly;
Toronto 1-stop via Anchorage chopped;
Dubai goes 18x weekly, up from double daily, 4 new flights continue to Bahrain;
Riyadh detached from Bahrain to become nonstops;
Double daily to Auckland, up from 17x weekly;
Xiamen frequencies to be operated by Dragonair;
It looks like those B744s are hurting on flights that stretch their range limits. Chopped just in time for the northern hemisphere winter when the headwind is strong westbound across the Pacific and the resultant frequent diversions to Taipei or Incheon. These flights are unlikely to be reinstated until more B77Ws arrive. As stated before, flights are full so it's not a demand issue but a cost (oil) issue.
Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 11948 posts, RR: 37 Reply 2, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5412 times:
I'm curious to know how this will effect planned 77W utilisation. As far as I know, the "original" plan was to use the 77W to North America exclusively, but with flights being cut back, presumably we can expect to see these aircraft outside N.A, before long - to Australia/NZ, if not Europe?
Currently (as of July), the 77W is only showing on the HKG-JFK route - twice daily and YYZ (once daily), but they now have eight in service, with three more coming in the near future (and many more further out), so I'm just wondering if the changes to the US/Canada network will have an effect on planned 77W utilisation.
Astral From Canada, joined Mar 2004, 214 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 5403 times:
I think everyone already know from the press that CX is in 'red' for the first time in 5 years (since SARS), and N. America is the major problem, while Australia is providing positive revenue. This is why we will see more cut backs to Canada/USA, and more frequency to downunder.
CX will replace its B747 with B777 for all its N. America routes by end of this year. They hope the better fuel efficiency of the B777 would help to reduce loss. CX's N. America routes now requires a near 99% load to break even, or worse even lost money at full load. The coming winter low season will be a bigger challenge.
I am almost 100% sure now that the HKG-YVR-JFK flight will be history before year end, and HKG-YVR could down to only daily during winter 2008-9, and back to only 11 a week starting April 2009.
The downturn of US economy is hurting CX, and the important Canada connection through YVR suffers accordingly. Eastern Canada economy is getting worse, so it too put huge pressure on the YYZ-HKG route.
UPPERDECKFAN From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 992 posts, RR: 1 Reply 4, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 5077 times:
I know these are not the best of times for the aviation business but anyway I wondering whether there is an chance of seeing CX at MAD any time soon now that IB have put expansion plans to Asia on hold.
IMO HKG-MAD by either IB or CX is one of the unserved long haul routes with the greatest chance to succeed.
MarcoPoloWorld From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 600 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4596 times:
Quoting Astral (Reply 3): CX will replace its B747 with B777 for all its N. America routes by end of this year.
I know that Cathay had planned for some time now to replace all N America flights with the triple-sevens. But I doubt that they can make the complete swap as quickly as you're claiming before getting several more 777s - without ending up with a major mismatch in capacity within their route system.
The Coachman From Australia, joined Apr 2001, 1410 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4441 times:
Quoting Astral (Reply 3): CX's N. America routes now requires a near 99% load to break even, or worse even lost money at full load. The coming winter low season will be a bigger challenge.
Is this merely speculative conjecture?
Quoting DYK (Reply 6): Could the end of CX service to YVR be near?
MarcoPoloWorld From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 600 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4404 times:
Quoting DYK (Reply 6): Could the end of CX service to YVR be near?
Seems extremely unlikely, given the large Asian population in Vancouver, and its strategic location for transpacific service to/from Canada.
I would think that Toronto would be chopped before Vancouver (though I don't think that would happen, either).
Cloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2425 posts, RR: 9 Reply 10, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4198 times:
Quoting SeansasLCY (Reply 1): There have been rumors before of 5x daily to LHR any chance of this in the near future?
I have heard nothing about this recently.
Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2): I'm curious to know how this will effect planned 77W utilisation. As far as I know, the "original" plan was to use the 77W to North America exclusively, but with flights being cut back, presumably we can expect to see these aircraft outside N.A, before long - to Australia/NZ, if not Europe?
Currently (as of July), the 77W is only showing on the HKG-JFK route - twice daily and YYZ (once daily), but they now have eight in service, with three more coming in the near future (and many more further out), so I'm just wondering if the changes to the US/Canada network will have an effect on planned 77W utilisation.
Not at all. There are only 8, all tied up with JFK and Toronto with the occasional Pudong, Ho Chi Minh, Manila, Cebu, Bangkok and Taipei. B77Ws are arriving at 5/year. Plenty of B744s still on N American routes to be replaced. Next to go B77W is LAX.
Quoting Astral (Reply 3): CX will replace its B747 with B777 for all its N. America routes by end of this year.
Not true. Still another ~13 B744 on the N American routes (after latest cuts). B77Ws are arriving at 5/year. Will not be fully transitioned for another 3 years.
Quoting Astral (Reply 3): CX's N. America routes now requires a near 99% load to break even, or worse even lost money at full load. The coming winter low season will be a bigger challenge.
That's why these cuts are being made.
Quoting Astral (Reply 3): I am almost 100% sure now that the HKG-YVR-JFK flight will be history before year end, and HKG-YVR could down to only daily during winter 2008-9, and back to only 11 a week starting April 2009.
I won't be so quick to say that. This particular flight is serving 2 distinct markets - the transpac to Vancouver and the 5th freedom transcon between Vancouver and NYC. The transcon segment is quite front heavy and has good freight loads. Vancouver maybe a low yield leisure route but it will be significantly underserved with a single daily flight. With the latest cut in capacity there is room for upward fares adjustment which should be able to offset some cost pressure.
Air Canada is also cutting back to 5/wk (although swapping to a B77W at the same time, effectively keeping the overall capacity).
Quoting UPPERDECKFAN (Reply 4): IMO HKG-MAD by either IB or CX is one of the unserved long haul routes with the greatest chance to succeed.
I don't think that is anywhere near the top of the priority list at the moment. And I would dispute that there is much potential for Madrid. It's a long thin low yield leisure route connecting to the Iberia peninsular with most connections already provided via Heathrow. If it adds anything it would be connections to S America. There's not a lot of traffic tho between S America and HK.
If Cathay was to add another port in Europe it would be reinstating Zurich which is a high yield business route.
Quoting DYK (Reply 6): Could the end of CX service to YVR be near?
UPPERDECKFAN From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 992 posts, RR: 1 Reply 11, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4111 times:
Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 10): And I would dispute that there is much potential for Madrid. It's a long thin low yield leisure route connecting to the Iberia peninsular with most connections already provided via Heathrow
IMO, an IB/CX codeshare 2-class service would succeed easily as you wouldn't believe how much premium feed does BA (and AF, LH, KL to a lesser extent) get from MAD and BCN onto Asia and mostly China, Spanish firms have expanded big time in China over the last few years.
Besides SoAm connections at MAD, OTOH there are the connections at the HKG end onto SE Asia, mainland China and Korea/Japan. MAD and HKG are both large OW hubs.
6thfreedom From Bermuda, joined Sep 2004, 3265 posts, RR: 22 Reply 14, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 4033 times:
Quoting SeansasLCY (Reply 1): There have been rumors before of 5x daily to LHR any chance of this in the near future?
With LHR having a curfew, at what point does adding frequency become ineffective.
You can only have reasonable departures from LHR to HKG say 0900 to 2200. That's 13 hours per day. With 4 per day, that's a departure almost every 3 hours. make it 5 flights per day, and it's almost 2 hours per departure..
only untapped potential slot would be a 9am from LHR arriving HKG 0500+1.
A380 a better solution going forward?
Quoting ANstar (Reply 7): Hopefully! would be great if SYD could get F service again.
why?
It's only a 9 hour sector, and besides, the J class product ain't bad at all!
Yegbey01 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1678 posts, RR: 3 Reply 15, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3919 times:
Quoting DYK (Reply 6): Could the end of CX service to YVR be near?
Misbeehavin From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 914 posts, RR: 4 Reply 17, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3638 times:
Quoting SeansasLCY (Reply 1): There have been rumors before of 5x daily to LHR any chance of this in the near future?
No idea, but I wouldn't be surprised. London - Hong Kong seems to have endless demand.
If any of the oneworld carries actually liked each other, maybe CX could hold off on increasing LHR flights and give them to BA, who appear to hate seriously expanding beyond North America and India
Pnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2045 posts, RR: 12 Reply 18, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2843 times:
CX won't drop YYZ or YVR because that would surrender the market to AC. CX is not about to let that happen readily. AC loads are still reasonable and the belly is still full of cargo on the 77W and LR. CX still supports its 747-4F to Toronto and that may be downgraded in frequency. The CX 777 still carries a lot of cargo.
To be honest, I would think this is the better solution - currently those flights are leaving in a very narrow time slot - which means if they combinem for example, 3 744s into 2 380s, I would think this makes sense in cost saving - crew, airport fees and oil.
Quoting 6thfreedom: A380 a better solution going forward?
To be honest, I would think this is the better solution - currently those flights are leaving in a very narrow time slot - which means if they combinem for example, 3 744s into 2 380s, I would think this makes sense in cost saving - crew, airport fees and oil.
Absolutely. That's what the A380 is for.
But you don't even need to combine flights to deploy the A380. Assuming identical growth for all 3 classes, at an average annual growth of 5%, a 379 seat B744 becomes a 505 seat A388 in just 6 years. At 6% growth it's even faster at 5 years. Even a 301 seat B77W becomes an A388 in about 10 years.
Heathrow's current 3xB744+1xA343 = 1380 seats. Assume A388 has ca. 505 seats, x4 = 2020 seats. This is achieved in 8 years time at 5% annual growth, or 6.5 years at 6% growth. That's 2014-2016. If you join the A380 queue today, that's probably when you will get them.
These percentages are consistent with ICAO, IATA, Boeing and Airbus' long term forecasts. Various factors like alliances and hubbing might change this for specific routes like Heathrow.
So it s a no brainer that sooner or later these ultra high demand routes will need ultra high capacity solutions.
Cloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2425 posts, RR: 9 Reply 23, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1657 times:
Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 14): With LHR having a curfew, at what point does adding frequency become ineffective.
You can only have reasonable departures from LHR to HKG say 0900 to 2200. That's 13 hours per day. With 4 per day, that's a departure almost every 3 hours. make it 5 flights per day, and it's almost 2 hours per departure..
only untapped potential slot would be a 9am from LHR arriving HKG 0500+1.
A380 a better solution going forward?
I see your point. Also you will find that the evening flights out of both Hong Kong and Heathrow are the more popular flights. Eastbound they connect with Cathay's late afternoon/early evening bank of departures to rest of Asia and Australia and westbound they connect with BA's first wave of European departures. These will go up in aircraft size before any other flights. There is no doubt BA will send 2 A380s a day +1 of B744/B77W as soon as they get them. Virgin will too, continuing onto Sydney. Interesting all these have similar schedules +-3hours eastbound, +-1hr westbound.
Qantas tho no plan at the moment will do the same with 29/30.
So I cannot see Cathay not doing anything in response. And the 2 evening departures out of Hong Kong will be the first to be upped.
6thfreedom From Bermuda, joined Sep 2004, 3265 posts, RR: 22 Reply 24, posted (4 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 1374 times:
Quoting Swiftski (Reply 19): Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 14):
5 flights per day, and it's almost 2 hours per departure
I'd advise you to take a look at something like FlightStats to see how the flights currently work.
QF and CX go within 5 mins of each other at lunchtime, then all other flights (CX,BA,NZ,VS) are after 6pm
I wasn't suggesting that flight were spread apart at 2 hour intervals, I was just using the stat to demonstrate the point that with such a small operating window at LHR, additional frequencies beyond 5 per day delivers to benefit.
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