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YYC Airline Expansion?  
User currently offlineBoeingluvr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (6 years 6 hours ago) and read 3448 times:

So I'm hearing all these rumors of airline expansion coming into YYC, especially since prep of the new 34R/16L construction recently...

My question is, who else is coming to YYC? So far over the past 2 yrs we've seen BA and LH as well as some smaller regional carriers. So who else is coming? I hear rumors of JAL and even China Eastern or China Airines. Also rumors of even EK wanting to fly in here. Someone has said for sure Cathay... Apparantly as the asian population grows rapidly here as it did once in YVR, and with the attraction of the mountains and Banff etc... which do attract thousands apon thousands of tourist year round from Asia alone... Is this part of the plan? Anyone know or hear of anything other than a rumor or who is actually planning/trying to get into YYC??

Cheers!!

27 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDYK From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 407 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 6 hours ago) and read 3412 times:

EK I can see but China Eastern or JAL. NOt sure this will happen any time soon.
I wonder how will Calgary support all the carriers with a population of just over a million?
I look at YVR and it can barely support the carriers it has now and it as a pop of 2.5 mil, and YVR will probably lose some in the future including China Eastern and JAL. I realize YYC has business traffic and Vancouver has probably the worst yield of any market in NA but 1 million people with BA, LH, EK, JL, CX ,MU. Sorry cant imagine all these carriers into YYC.



AC,CP,PW,WD,ND,UA,AA,NW,CO,DL,WA,AS,QX,PR,SQ,AI,TG,MH,JL,9W,IC,UL,PG,BW,NZ,QF,DJ,BA,LH,KL,OA,OS,ME,RJ,HA,AQ
User currently offlineMarcoPoloWorld From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 639 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 5 hours ago) and read 3372 times:

Yah, the local market seems small, in relative terms. But gosh, there are so many first-generation Asians in Calgary - and seemingly educated, with good incomes, and with a propensity to travel. Surely, one nonstop line to Asia would seem bearable by the market in YYC.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c6/CalNight.jpg/800px-CalNight.jpg

Photo courtesy of the Calgary Downtown Association


User currently offlineBakersdozen From Canada, joined Nov 2006, 336 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 5 hours ago) and read 3354 times:

Marco not to mention the fact that there is QUITE a bit of business/oil traffic flowing through Asia. When we fly we've got to go through Vancouver to Hong Kong then to Singapore... sometimes on the way back we've got to go through Korea, it's a huge hassle.

Get a connection to a major asian hub (singapore/tokyo/hong kong) and I can almost guarantee the traffic.


User currently offlineBO__einG From Canada, joined Apr 2000, 2771 posts, RR: 18
Reply 4, posted (6 years 4 hours ago) and read 3317 times:

I think one of the biggest hurdles facing YYC is more than just the market or yields but the government policies with allowing more foreign carriers to make money on additional routes and frequencies. That is what I heard and supposely that is responsible to many of these so called airlines being nothing more than just a rumour. Many airlines are restricted to how many times a week they can fly and usually places like YYZ, YVR and YUL take up all the space.

The strongest rumour so far is Cathay Pacific. There was even a newspaper article some time back saying that they wanted so badly to have direct flights to Calgary from HKG but are still waiting around for red tape issues to lean up.
I can only picture 1 or two airlines going full on seasonal flights. Cathay to Hong Kong and ANA seasonal to Tokyo or Osaka. ANA has flown here for a number of years on charters as did with JAL.

On the Euro front, I dont see anybody else. I like to see KLM return but nothings on that front. Also get Swiss in here for the mountain skiing and tourism.

Mid East front I see only EK, that too was mentioned in the newspaper as well so IM sure there are more info inside the closed doors. EK seasonal or year round to DXB would be awesome!
Even EY would be good.

Cargofront I like to see an South American or Mid Eastern operator use YYC although it will probably be FedEx and UPS adding frequencies or upgrading planes.

How about that one time a few months back that IB was going to go 6x weekly to and from MAD. Incredible!! IB's first flight was actually MX from MEX. Media outlets often get plane types wrong but this takes the cake.



Chance favors the prepared mind.
User currently offlinePnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2235 posts, RR: 12
Reply 5, posted (6 years 4 hours ago) and read 3314 times:

EK and EY are constrained currently to a total of 6 flights per week total by the current bilateral agreement. The tactics used by UAE to try to force a new bilateral did not go down very well in Ottawa, so it has been go slow or full stop to negotiate a new one. Since no Canadian airline is even using the current available flights to the UAE a new agreement doesn't seem a high priority in Ottawa. Certainly AC would object to any new flights since they revenue share currently with LH on flights to Frankfurt which has connections to all over the Middle East. So any flight to YYC would be at the expense of the current flights to YYZ.

User currently offlineDYK From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 407 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (6 years 4 hours ago) and read 3286 times:



Quoting Pnwtraveler (Reply 5):
EK and EY are constrained currently to a total of 6 flights per week total by the current bilateral agreement. The tactics used by UAE to try to force a new bilateral did not go down very well in Ottawa, so it has been go slow or full stop to negotiate a new one. Since no Canadian airline is even using the current available flights to the UAE a new agreement doesn't seem a high priority in Ottawa. Certainly AC would object to any new flights since they revenue share currently with LH on flights to Frankfurt which has connections to all over the Middle East. So any flight to YYC would be at the expense of the current flights to YYZ.

I think what your trying to say is it did not go down well with Air Canada. The feds dont fart without asking Air Canada first.



AC,CP,PW,WD,ND,UA,AA,NW,CO,DL,WA,AS,QX,PR,SQ,AI,TG,MH,JL,9W,IC,UL,PG,BW,NZ,QF,DJ,BA,LH,KL,OA,OS,ME,RJ,HA,AQ
User currently offlineYVR1968 From Australia, joined Feb 2004, 704 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (6 years 1 hour ago) and read 3207 times:

Yes, exactly... rumours, rumours, rumours....

Quoting Boeingluvr (Thread starter):
I hear rumors of JAL and even China Eastern or China Airines

I seriously doubt that for years to come. In fact, this summer there were not even JAL, ANA or Korean Air charters.

Quoting DYK (Reply 1):
YVR will probably lose some in the future including China Eastern and JAL

I seriously doubt that very much! Especially JAL. China growth will only continue once the global capacity downward cycle reverses again.

Quoting Boeingluvr (Thread starter):
Someone has said for sure Cathay

Again, highly doubt it. Seriously, in fact, CX has just gone through a huge round of capacity reductions in North America, so very unlikely would start a route to YYC.

Quoting Boeingluvr (Thread starter):
Apparantly as the asian population grows rapidly here as it did once in YVR

Have you actually looked at the 2006 Canada Census figures? YVR still by far attracts way more Asian immigrants than YYC (in sheer numbers and per capita). Where did you get that info from? I guess like you said "apparently..?" YVR also attracts a higher percentage of entrepreneur, higher educated immigrants from Asia than any other place in Canada. It's all in the 2006 Canada Census results. And since the last census only 2 years ago, BC and YVR's % of immigration from Asia has continued to increase.


User currently offlineYXXMIKE From Canada, joined Apr 2008, 308 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (5 years 12 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 3165 times:

http://www.newairandtours.ca/

I believe that these guys are based in YYC and I have some fairly reliable sources saying that they are close to confirming a real name and start date within the next couple of weeks.

A good friend of mine flies for CX and he said that they are tightening the belt a lot so a YYC flight will likely not happen for the next couple of years.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5416 posts, RR: 30
Reply 9, posted (5 years 12 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 3164 times:

With all the packed flights I've been on to the middle east, I'm amazed someone hasn't come up with a thrice weekly direct to YYC, at the very least. Heck, AC is getting the iron that would work perfectly on the route.

Connecting through LHR or even FRA is a pain.



What the...?
User currently offlineDYK From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 407 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 years 12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3027 times:



Quoting YVR1968 (Reply 7):
I seriously doubt that very much! Especially JAL. China growth will only continue once the global capacity downward cycle reverses again.

Despite the good economy we are experiencing in Vancouver, the airline business is not looking so bright. MU is loosing money into YVR and traffic to/frm Japan has been dropping big time over the last few years. Unlike the European carriers serving YVR, the Asian carrier are not doing so well.
-The high dollar is making it more attractive for passengers to fly into Asia via Seattle or Portland.
- high fuel prices in a low yield market



AC,CP,PW,WD,ND,UA,AA,NW,CO,DL,WA,AS,QX,PR,SQ,AI,TG,MH,JL,9W,IC,UL,PG,BW,NZ,QF,DJ,BA,LH,KL,OA,OS,ME,RJ,HA,AQ
User currently offlineFLYYUL From Italy, joined Jun 2000, 4976 posts, RR: 51
Reply 11, posted (5 years 12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3003 times:

Everybody relax and breathe.

Calgary's future growth is best handled by network carriers feeding their hubs. This talk of EY/EK is too premature, the market isnt there to support non-stop service to DXB, where the market sizes for onward feed to the sub-continent is tiny. YES, there is oil traffic.. thats why AF/LH/BA/AC are the best to flow this traffic via Europe.

For Asia, again... what is the market size for Hong Kong? Tokyo? Seoul? Cathay has no restrictions to serving Calgary.

Calgary will likely see AF/KL in due course, but the rest of the wishlist, is a bit far-fetched.


User currently offlineDYK From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 407 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (5 years 12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 2986 times:



Quoting FLYYUL (Reply 11):
For Asia, again... what is the market size for Hong Kong? Tokyo? Seoul? Cathay has no restrictions to serving Calgary.

Calgary will likely see AF/KL in due course, but the rest of the wishlist, is a bit far-fetched.

I agree, but the rumours for EK are strong. They have opened a cargo office in Calgary but maybe they are planning cargo only.

KLM was planning to enter the YYC market but I believe that has been nixed for the short term.



AC,CP,PW,WD,ND,UA,AA,NW,CO,DL,WA,AS,QX,PR,SQ,AI,TG,MH,JL,9W,IC,UL,PG,BW,NZ,QF,DJ,BA,LH,KL,OA,OS,ME,RJ,HA,AQ
User currently offlineFLYYUL From Italy, joined Jun 2000, 4976 posts, RR: 51
Reply 13, posted (5 years 12 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 2896 times:



Quoting DYK (Reply 12):

Opening an office in Calgary doesnt mean very much. They are probably appeasing the customers that are flying interline via LHR or FRA.

Again, the UAE bilateral wont change for a while, im sure they are well aware.


User currently offline9252fly From Canada, joined Sep 2005, 1391 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 12 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 2886 times:

I'm curious about the runway that's to be built on the other side of Barlow Trail. Why have they waited so long to go ahead with construction?

User currently offlineYVR1968 From Australia, joined Feb 2004, 704 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (5 years 12 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2734 times:



Quoting DYK (Reply 10):
Despite the good economy we are experiencing in Vancouver, the airline business is not looking so bright. MU is loosing money into YVR and traffic to/frm Japan has been dropping big time over the last few years.

The Japan market has been dropping worldwide - you should see the capacity cuts between Australia and Japan. Not pretty. I highly doubt this would cause JAL to pull out of YVR altogether. I even remember someone mentioned JAL was going to reduce frequencies this winter (well.. down 1 flight per week) but this does not appear to have happened.

As for MU, it was the JFK route that is/was suffering. There was talk on here about amalgamating the YVR/JFK route into one with a PVG-YVR-JFK routing. That obviously hasn't happened, but again, I highly doubt we will see MU pull out of YVR altogether.

Quoting DYK (Reply 10):
-The high dollar is making it more attractive for passengers to fly into Asia via Seattle or Portland.

That has ALWAYS been the case... it has always been cheaper for as long as I can remember to fly out of SEA vs YVR. That is nothing new. Depsite the strong dollar, by far way lower fares ex SEA.


User currently offlineSuperdawg From Canada, joined Jan 2000, 347 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (5 years 12 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2683 times:

Unless much has changed since Oct 07 but as stated in the article http://www.rewardscanada.ca/cxreview.html Cathay thinks Calgary is a very important market but are happy to live off of feeds from Air Canada and WestJet into YVR and as mentioned above Cathay is actually cutting capacity at this time so I don't believe we will be seeing them soon.

User currently offlineBoeingluvr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2429 times:



Quoting YVR1968 (Reply 7):
Have you actually looked at the 2006 Canada Census figures? YVR still by far attracts way more Asian immigrants than YYC (in sheer numbers and per capita). Where did you get that info from? I guess like you said "apparently..?" YVR also attracts a higher percentage of entrepreneur, higher educated immigrants from Asia than any other place in Canada. It's all in the 2006 Canada Census results. And since the last census only 2 years ago, BC and YVR's % of immigration from Asia has continued to increase.

Where did I say it attracts more than YVR. I simply said it is attracting a large asian population as YVR once did years and years ago. Hongcouver wasn't always Hongcouver bud!
I didn't get that information from any direct source, but I have had a home there for quite some time, and have seen the population first hand. You can't tell me the asian and not to mention other immigrant population hasn't doubled or trippled from 10 years ago. I can see it just from visiting my home there... Why don't you quote what I actually said? Oh and since you're probably going to want some kind of physical report... here you go! Enjoy the read.. You'll notice Calgary had 7,825 provincial migrants into Calgary and Vancouver had...257 this past year... Wow well it's good to see you're on top of things Smile

http://www.calgaryeconomicdevelopmen...liveWorkPlay/Live/demographics.cfm


User currently offlineDABTH747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2365 times:



Quoting Pnwtraveler (Reply 5):

What tactics did they use?


User currently offlineMattRB From Canada, joined Apr 2005, 1624 posts, RR: 9
Reply 19, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2307 times:



Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 8):
http://www.newairandtours.ca/

I believe that these guys are based in YYC and I have some fairly reliable sources saying that they are close to confirming a real name and start date within the next couple of weeks.

They are YYC based. They're currently in the process of finalizing a contract to fly workers to the oilsands with a 73N. Once that's done, they'll be looking to expand rapidly.



Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible.
User currently offlineThreepoint From Canada, joined Oct 2005, 2130 posts, RR: 9
Reply 20, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2296 times:



Quoting Boeingluvr (Reply 17):
Enjoy the read.. You'll notice Calgary had 7,825 provincial migrants into Calgary and Vancouver had...257 this past year...

That has nothing to do with the argument at hand. Your figures are those of interprovincial migrants (the net total of people moving between into selected cities from elsewhere in Canada) and have nothing to do with ethnicity.

I don't know whether Vancouver or Calgary attracts more Asian immigrants these days, but I do know that your numbers above do nothing to clarify the debate.



The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
User currently offlineYvr1968 From Australia, joined Feb 2004, 704 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2258 times:



Quoting Boeingluvr (Reply 17):
I simply said it is attracting a large asian population as YVR once did years and years ago.

According to Stats Canada 2006 Census

Vancouver attracted 132,665 Asian immigrants between 2001 and 2006
Calgary attracted 54,435 Asian immigrants between 2001 and 2006

That is 2.4 times more Asian immigration to Vancouver than Calgary

Quoting Boeingluvr (Reply 17):
You'll notice Calgary had 7,825 provincial migrants into Calgary and Vancouver had...257 this past year

That has nothing to do with immigration - interprovincial migration is people moving within Canada - not from overseas.


User currently offlineMarcoPoloWorld From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 639 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 2202 times:



Quoting Yvr1968 (Reply 21):
Calgary attracted 54,435 Asian immigrants between 2001 and 2006

Then there is definitely a market for a direct daily between YYC and Asia. In fact, that increment alone constitutes the generation of demand for an additional 70,000 seats annually, based on the propensity for similar immigration groups to generate 1.3 trips per year (including those made by third parties, such as relatives and friends on the other side of the pond). For argument's sake, let's just play it conservatively and say 1.0 instead - that's an demand for an additional 150 seats daily - just incrementally (added to the existing immigrant population) since 2001!

Cathay Pacific is way too cautious to be considered a realistic contender to Calgary (for now, at least), but this market should definitely be on the radar of BR and CI. Imagine what market possibilities even just a 3x weekly between YYC and HKG/TPE could offer. Not to mention MNL, but I won't go there today.  Smile Or via Japan; ever seen any Japanese or Korean tourists in Banff?  Smile Yeah, probably all the time, more or less.....

The tipping point between intercontinental Calgary travel to Europe and Asia, respectively, is almost certain to already have been passed in Asia's favor.


User currently offlineYegbey01 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1724 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 2169 times:

CX has just downgraded YVR and YYZ.....THere's no way CX would be coming to YYC anytime soon!!!!


The Canada-China (including HKG) market is well served at this point.


User currently offlineRamprat From Canada, joined Apr 2000, 188 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2134 times:

The latest rumor making its way around the airport is KLM next summer. Not sure how reliable that is, but you never know.

25 Ckfred : It would be nice of AA started flying ORD-YYC again.
26 9252fly : If there is any major carrier that I could see entering the market it would be KLM aswell. It's the most logical candidate as YYC is more a European
27 Viscount724 : You need significant high-yield business traffic to make a longhaul route like that profitable. And Japanese tourist traffic to Canada has been down
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