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The Future Of Commercial Aviation In Spain  
User currently offlineBBADXB From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (6 years 4 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4160 times:

I have been thinking about the short-term future of the commercial aviation scene in Spain, in particular that of Iberia, Clickair, Vueling, Spanair, easyjet and Ryanair... bearing in mind that the Spanish economy is in quite a bit of a mess at the moment.

How do you see the commercial aviation scene in Spain developing over the next year or so?

Spanair is plagued with lots of difficulties at the moment: financial loss, a very tragic accident just two days ago, labour issues, downsizing and restructuring, and its sale (or not!) by its parent SAS. How do you think Spanair will be like in a year´s time?

Iberia seems to be doing well, especially on its longhaul routes to Latin America. What are the most likely developments at Iberia?

Clickair seem to be doing well at their BCN base and other hubs. Any info about their future plans? Is the merger with Vueling still going ahead?

Vueling have made the headlines recently, mainly due to their staggering losses. Will they still be around by Christmas time? Will they merge will Clickair? What sort of short term plans regarding their network do Vueling have?

Easyjet and Ryanair both have bases in Spain with extensive domestic and international services. What sort of developments can we expect of the two LCCs regarding their Spanish operations? Will they continue to eat into the market share of the other carriers mentioned above? What sort of new routes or cuts (if any) are likely to take place over the next year or so?

Rgds
BBADXB

14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineLUPOR1D From Ireland, joined Feb 2008, 316 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 4 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4147 times:

Well I cant see it getting any worse- Unless the sun and sand disappears the tourists will keep on comin Big grin


Always lurking.
User currently offlineHT From Germany, joined May 2005, 6525 posts, RR: 23
Reply 2, posted (6 years 4 months 2 days ago) and read 4082 times:

I would like to add AB to the list of airlines catering for #domestic travel needs in Spain.
Although they only serve PMI, from what I understand they have quite some local traffic as O&D to/from that place.
They too are not doing too well overall, as they still are busy with the LTU intergration.

Personally, I think that GRX could be one more destination for AB to be linked to PMI. Around 3 flights per week to start with should do. Equipment could be F100, the same as they deploy to VLC.
-HT



Carpe diem ! Life is too short to waste your time ! Keep in mind, that today is the first day of the rest of your life !
User currently offlineBBADXB From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (6 years 4 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4009 times:

There are a lot of places with sun and sand, which are much cheaper than Spain, such as Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. The pound´s weakness, especially against the euro,has had a bad effect on the number of UK visitors to Spain.

I did not mention AB as their internal flights within Spain seem to originate at PMI, and they do not offer any services within mainland Spain (afaik). Having said that, I would very much like to know what sort of changes to their Spanish network (both domestic and international), they may have in the pipelines.


User currently offlineR2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2775 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (6 years 4 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3958 times:

Expect to see some consolidation going on. The Spanish market is very big, but with a slowing economy and the spectacular growth of the high-speed rail network coming up, it is impossible for all the current domestic players to survive.

First one to go could sadly be Spanair. It is already going through a severe restructuring, but I fear that after the recent crash in MAD, the airline may never recover. A well targeted offensive from the media (even if based of false speculations) or politicians seeking a scapegoat would put the final nail in the coffin and finish killing off the airline for good.

The merged Vueling-Clickair will have more stability now being backed by IB but it will be a tough fight with FR and U2.

Air Europa will have to maintain its niche to survive. Taking advantage of synergies with Skyteam partners could help. It could also take over Spanair's market if JK is to disappear.

IB should be fine, it is in an excellent financial position and will now concentrate on exploiting the synergies within the AA-BA-IB alliance.

Quoting BBADXB (Reply 3):
There are a lot of places with sun and sand, which are much cheaper than Spain, such as Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt.

This is an important point, as unfortunately the successive Spanish governments have exclusively bet on cheap mass tourism rather than promoting higher income types of tourism, and this will eventually get back at them.


User currently offlineMestrugo From Chile, joined Apr 2007, 237 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (6 years 4 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3946 times:

What about Air Comet? They're cutting the links with Aerolíneas Argentinas, and that could be either positive or negative for them. I also wonder what's going to happen with Air Comet Chile, now that we're on it.

User currently offlineHumberside From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2005, 4927 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (6 years 4 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3884 times:



Quoting R2rho (Reply 4):
First one to go could sadly be Spanair. It is already going through a severe restructuring, but I fear that after the recent crash in MAD, the airline may never recover. A well targeted offensive from the media (even if based of false speculations) or politicians seeking a scapegoat would put the final nail in the coffin and finish killing off the airline for good.

Would SAS let Spanair collapse though considering the reputational damage it could do? Would the risk of such damage be worth it?

I wonder if LH could come in and save Spanair in some form?



Visit the Air Humberside Website and Forum
User currently offlineBBADXB From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (6 years 4 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3848 times:

I also think that Spanair is in a very weak position at the moment. I do not think it will go under. At worst, perhaps, it will implode significantly.

I consider Air Europa as a niche carrier. In fact, most of their flights are IT flights to the Canaries or the Balearics, or popular holiday destinations in Latin America from Madrid, plus Paris, Italy (FCO, MXP, VCE), Eastern Europe (PRG, BUD, WAW) and Tel Aviv.

Likewise, Air Comet fly to Madrid to LGW, CDG and Latin America.


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8037 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (6 years 4 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3781 times:

I still think there will be substantial air travel to Spain from continental Europe, mostly because even with Spain expanding its AVE network to connect with the French TGV over the next 5-7 years it'll still be faster and more convenient to fly from central Europe to Spain, especially with the large number of discount carriers like Ryanair and EasyJet.

User currently offlineBraybuddy From Ireland, joined Aug 2004, 5812 posts, RR: 31
Reply 9, posted (6 years 4 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3747 times:

To be honest I can't see Spanair surviving in the present economic climate. Helios didn't last long after their crash a couple of years ago, and the one this week in Madrid could be the final nail in its coffin.

Going by the reports I've been reading, things have been pretty chaotic at the airline recently, and I don't think it would take much to finish it off.


User currently offlineSKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 879 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (6 years 4 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3677 times:



Quoting R2rho (Reply 4):
The Spanish market is very big, but with a slowing economy and the spectacular growth of the high-speed rail network coming up, it is impossible for all the current domestic players to survive.

Very true! Rail is going to have a very relevant role in the Spain's domestic market.

Quoting R2rho (Reply 4):
First one to go could sadly be Spanair. It is already going through a severe restructuring, but I fear that after the recent crash in MAD, the airline may never recover. A well targeted offensive from the media (even if based of false speculations) or politicians seeking a scapegoat would put the final nail in the coffin and finish killing off the airline for good.

Again, I agree with you.

Quoting R2rho (Reply 4):
Air Europa will have to maintain its niche to survive.

I'm not afraid for the UX's future. They have their own niche within Spain. It's small but efficient. Their intercontinental network plus their Skyteam membership as a associate must be taken into account as well.

Quoting R2rho (Reply 4):
, as unfortunately the successive Spanish governments have exclusively bet on cheap mass tourism rather than promoting higher income types of tourism,

No, this time I don't agree with you.

First at all, Spain doesn't only offer Sun and beaches. Spain does offer mountain, health spa, gastronomy, History (Toledo, Granada, old Universitaries cities such as Salamanca, castle routes) a very good infrastructure of transportation (good motorways network, impressive High-Speed Train) all kind of accommodations (example: "paradores" http://www.parador.es/en/portal.do;j...=35610669BF9676849D8A5F5078833F7A) with a wide-ranging in price from Young Hostels to five-star hotels, golf and all kind of sport, cutural tourism, safety, good health system, etc, etc...

If you want high-quality tourism is Spain you will get. It only depends about your budget. So, is NOT true Spain bets by the cheap mass tourism.

Quoting Mestrugo (Reply 5):
What about Air Comet?

Air Comet is another one who has a not very clear future. They're removing some South American destinations lately.

I see UX on a better shape than both, A7 and JK.



Time flies! Enjoy life!
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20342 posts, RR: 59
Reply 11, posted (6 years 4 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 3603 times:



Quoting BBADXB (Thread starter):
I have been thinking about the short-term future of the commercial aviation scene in Spain, in particular that of Iberia, Clickair, Vueling, Spanair, easyjet and Ryanair... bearing in mind that the Spanish economy is in quite a bit of a mess at the moment.

The Spanish economy is doing fine. It's hit a few bumps but it is in fine shape as compared to, say, the U.S. economy.


User currently offlineBBADXB From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (6 years 4 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 3557 times:

I do not intend to go OT and discuss the Spanish economy, or the that of the US... but I certainly wouldn´t say that the Spanish economy is in better shape than that of the US. Spain has the EU´s largest unemployment rate, at over 11%, even higher than that of Slovakia, and many say it is set to reach 14% (if not more) next year. The US economy is far more resilient. Unemployment there is under 6% which is very good by European standards... and not withstanding the credit crunch and the subprime mess, the economy is still growing. In the last quarter, Spain´s economy only grew by 0.1%. The US, in terms of GDP per capita, is far more richer than Spain, although the Spanish economy grew spectacularly during the last 15 years or so.

I agree that UX, although small in size and serves a rather specific niche market, is better positioned to face the present downturn, than for example Spanair. I think that Spanair´s expansion plans in ´06 and ´07 may have been somewhat too ambitious, and therefore the company is now facing a more challenging scenario.

I think that likewise, Air Comet serves a niche market, and I have the impression that they do what they do quite well.

What sort of developments are to be expected of the LCCs (VY, XG, U2, FR, and AB) over the next year in Spain?


User currently offlineR2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2775 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (6 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3364 times:



Quoting SKY1 (Reply 10):
Spain doesn't only offer Sun and beaches.

Fully agree, one can find very high quality touristic locations in Spain. What I was saying was that the Spanish governments have promoted the "sun & beach" concept excessively, and still continue to do so. The housing developments (historical as well as currently ongoing) on the Mediterranean are the best proof of this. I think Spain needs to diversify its offer (the potential is there) and promote more high-income kinds of tourism.

In any case, Spain has and will continue to have a strong tourism industry that will continue to drive its large aviation sector. It will become an even more crucial element in the future, as even with the expansion of high-speed rail, Germans, British, etc will continue to fly to Spain, they will not massively switch to the train.


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8037 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (6 years 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3318 times:



Quoting R2rho (Reply 13):
Germans, British, etc will continue to fly to Spain, they will not massively switch to the train.

I still think air travel will be viable for travel from the UK and central Europe to Spain, mostly because even once the Spanish AVE trains connect to the French TGV network the time it takes to travel by train from Paris to Madrid could be six to seven hours! Meanwhile, UK, Germany or Italy to Spain by a low-cost carrier can do the same flight in around two hours or less.  Smile


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