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Future 787/350 Customers  
User currently offlineOby From Denmark, joined Aug 2008, 104 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 5452 times:

Hi.
I was getting a little annoyed about all the threads about these marvellous aircraft are scattered around. So, I think we should have a thread about which airlines one would think would order the 787 and/or the 350.
I personally believe we won't get any orders from te big US companies this year, but when they come, they willmost likely be for the 787. On the other side of the pond I believe that SK will buy 787s from the reason that they hold a lot of cargo and are a bit smaller than the 350s and that the -3 versin is there for their big trunk routes. Also, im not quite sure with either LX, BM. But, I believe we will see a split order from LH along with AF-KL, and IB will go down the 350 route.
Also, what would you think if I said that Alaska Airlines just entered discussions wth Boeing regarding a twinaisle airplane?
Thoughts and replys please

36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFRNT787 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1324 posts, RR: 15
Reply 1, posted (6 years 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5319 times:

I personally have to agree with most of this.

Quoting Oby (Thread starter):
split order from LH along with AF-KL

I agree, but I am under the impression that the 787 will be ordered first by both of these groups in a first round of orders, and the A350s later on.

For LH, I am wondering what they will decide to do with the A340-600s, when the time comes. (And no, I dont believe they will replace them for a while.) With the very large number of 747-8i and A380 on order, and beyond that enough options to nearly double the order, I believe some of these 747s could eventually replace A340-600s. (For Example, there was a thread some time ago that LH wants the 747 on the DEN route. The 787 could be a great A330 replacement and even an A340-300 replacement. I believe the LH fleet is large enough that a 787/A350 fleet split could work.

For AF/KL, a split order could definately work just like LH. They have a large fleet of 777 to replace. But I believe they are currently not slotted for replacement just yet. As such, I expect a 787-9 (possibly -8) order to replace A330s, and some of the KLM fleet. But, since I see the 777 replacement coming at a later date, I am under the impression AF/KL could be persuaded to order an upgraded 777 package or a 787-10 (if they are available).

Quoting Oby (Thread starter):
big US companies this year, but when they come, they willmost likely be for the 787

I agree, the 787 just seems right sized for our market. Plus a 787-3 order could play a great role in domestic 767 replacement or a longterm replacement of AAs A300s.

Quoting Oby (Thread starter):
On the other side of the pond I believe that SK will buy 787s from the reason that they hold a lot of cargo and are a bit smaller than the 350s

Again I agree. The 787 just seems the perfect aircraft for them in my opinion.

Quoting Oby (Thread starter):
Also, im not quite sure with either LX

For LX, expect whatever LH decides for aircraft in this size category. If LH takes some 787s, then I would expect LX to take some.

Quoting Oby (Thread starter):
and IB will go down the 350 route

This one seems quite obvious to me, but I have been surprised before.

Quoting Oby (Thread starter):
Also, what would you think if I said that Alaska Airlines just entered discussions wth Boeing regarding a twinaisle airplane?

I would laugh. This would go against their longterm business model, their historical business model, and their recent plans to reducd to only 737s. BUT, in this case I would love to see the Alaska/Boeing Dreamliner hybrid on a Dreamliner.



Now to add a few:

Malaysian: Is widely expected to order their longhaul fleet soon, and I expect a Boeing order here. (No backup, just a gut feeling).

Turkish Airlines has also long been expected. Here I have no clue.

There were rumors of Varig shopping around, but I dont know that they are in a position to order right now.

I believe that eventually Emirates may want the 787 for an A330 sized airplane. This is why I believe that they have not ordered the A350-800. BUT I would expect an order for 25-50, certainly not 100.

Of course, many believe that BA/QF have A350 orders planned.

ONLY TIME, OR AN A.NETTER IN THE KNOW WILL TELL...



"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
User currently offlineRheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1968 posts, RR: 53
Reply 2, posted (6 years 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 5292 times:

Given the mounting delays and the (un)likelyhood of the 787 ramp-up achieving 10 aircraft per month by 2012, we may already be talking about 2017/18 production slots for any future 787 customer.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the ramp-up projections of the A350 being downscaled, too.

The 787-3 is as good as dead. It's more likely that this market segment will be covered by the twin-aisle portion of 737RS. Ever heard about 'Fatboy'?...


User currently offlineEBJ1248650 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1932 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (6 years 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5075 times:



Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 2):
Ever heard about 'Fatboy'?...

Clarify, please. A wide body derivative of the 737?



Dare to dream; dream big!
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31011 posts, RR: 86
Reply 4, posted (6 years 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 5040 times:
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I think LH will purchase only the A350. Probably the A350-800 and A350-900. The 747-8I will likely become the A340-600 replacement as opposed to the A350-1000.

I think AF and KL will shoot for the 787. They have plenty of new 777s so they won't likely need the A350-900 for a bit, to say nothing of the A350-1000. They can wait for the 777RS.

Hopefully Boeing and NH/JL can sign a new deal for 767-400ERs and cancel the 787-3 variant. Just use the Thompson 8-abreast seating. Cheaper price. Quicker delivery. Commonality with their existing 767-300ER fleets. Better flexibility. And ability to fit in 767-sized gates (since the 764ER has the only a bit more length and the same span as the 787-3).


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23
Reply 5, posted (6 years 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 4989 times:



Quoting Oby (Thread starter):
I personally believe we won't get any orders from te big US companies this year, but when they come, they willmost likely be for the 787.

Of the bigger international US airlines flying widebodies 2 have already ordered the A350, same for the 787. I wouldn't rule out an A350 order from UA or AA just yet.

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 1):
With the very large number of 747-8i and A380 on order, and beyond that enough options to nearly double the order, I believe some of these 747s could eventually replace A340-600s.

The A346s are new, none of them will be replaced before the 744 fleet is replaced. The current orders for A380s and 748s are barely enough to replace the 744 fleet.

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 1):
They have a large fleet of 777 to replace. But I believe they are currently not slotted for replacement just yet. As such, I expect a 787-9 (possibly -8) order to replace A330s, and some of the KLM fleet.

The A330 fleet is as new, if not newer then the 777 fleet of AF and KLM. If anything is up for replacement it's the MD11s (KL) in the short term and the A340s (AF) in the medium term. The A330 won't be replaced until after 2020.



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User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31011 posts, RR: 86
Reply 6, posted (6 years 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4908 times:
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Quoting Manni (Reply 5):
The A346s are new, none of them will be replaced before the 744 fleet is replaced. The current orders for A380s and 748s are barely enough to replace the 744 fleet.

The 20 747-8I options would cover most of the A346 fleet.


User currently offlineFRNT787 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1324 posts, RR: 15
Reply 7, posted (6 years 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 4849 times:



Quoting Manni (Reply 5):
Of the bigger international US airlines flying widebodies 2 have already ordered the A350, same for the 787. I wouldn't rule out an A350 order from UA or AA just yet.

I am under the firm belief that AA will order the 787. They have mentioned preferential slots in press releases, and several executives have mentioned it. For AA, I consider the 787 a given, for UA, I dont know. But, in my opinion, the 787 is a better fit for them as the 787 could replace the 767s quite well. Their 777 fleet could be replaced with a combo of the 787-9 and whatever Boeing develops for the 777-200ER size/range category.



"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
User currently offlineFRNT787 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1324 posts, RR: 15
Reply 8, posted (6 years 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 4838 times:

Per wiki:

Lufthansa has 30 744. On order they have 15 A380 (10 option) and 20 747-8i (20 options).

Currently they have enough 747-8i orders and A380 orders to not only cover the 744 fleet, but expand upon it (including number of frames and seats, as both of these aircraft are larger.) In addition, if they were to exercise all options they could replace the A340-600 and 744 in full with A380 and 747-8i.

Therefore, I have to agree with Stitch that it is likely they will replace the A340-600 fleet (at least in part) with 747-8i.



"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23
Reply 9, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3631 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
The 20 747-8I options would cover most of the A346 fleet.

It surely would. But with only 15 A380s on order, it looks that atleast 15 of the 20 ordered 748i's are to replace the remaining 744s.

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 7):
They have mentioned preferential slots in press releases, and several executives have mentioned it.

Talk is cheap. I doubt there's much that can be done. Those 'preferential slots', if they exist, must have been taken in the mean time anyway. Imagine the reaction of other airline executives if they see AA taking 787s before they do, after being told that their aircraft are delayed 2 years.

With both AA and UA having huge 767 and 777 fleets they might end up ordering both, the 787 and A350.

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 8):
if they were to exercise all options they could replace the A340-600 and 744 in full with A380 and 747-8i.

Options aren't orders. If converted into firm orders, there's indeed plenty to replace both the 744 and the A346. That's if by then A350-1000 isn't ordered to replace the A346.



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User currently offlineFlySSC From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 7412 posts, RR: 57
Reply 10, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3564 times:



Quoting Oby (Thread starter):
I believe we will see a split order from LH along with AF-KL

This was already discussed here 10000 times ... and announced by AF's CEO himself : AF is evaluating both the A350 and the B787 but it is very unlikely they will order both.

AF was supposed to take its decision this fall, but it was delayed to give Airbus time to propose a GE engined A350.
According to J.C Spinetta during a conference last july 30th, Airbus is taking a too long time to announce an agreement wth GE ... If Airbus fails to do so, then you can consider AF will go for the 787 ... as it is rumored since the beginning.
Considering that this order will be placed of course for AF-KL ...


User currently offlinePlairbus From Germany, joined Feb 2008, 311 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3419 times:

FRNT787 you are funny, you think that all the airlines are going to order the 787 and only IB the 350 but still there you think in surprise... wow, you are a big Boeing Fan right?
Personally I think that LH will go for the 350, no 787! IB for sure too and AF is under national pressure to buy some big Airbus planes so even if we all say that Europaen Airlines buy what is the best for them, I really think AF is going to buy 350, at least first, later perhaps 787. Also Lan Chile in some years will buy the 350 and have a mix fleet. AA will not buy the 350, for a lot of reason that we all know, only if the CEO change and Airbus makes a very good price, perhaps than but i think AA will go for 787. UA is difrent, I really think that they will buy the plane for the best price, Chance for Airbus 30 % Boeing 70 %.
Lets see, finally we all do not know and our hard sometimes make us write ideas that are perhaps not very logic... By the way I am still waiting for IB ordering the 380!


User currently offlineAircellist From Canada, joined Oct 2004, 1719 posts, RR: 8
Reply 12, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3026 times:



Quoting FlySSC (Reply 10):
AF was supposed to take its decision this fall, but it was delayed to give Airbus time to propose a GE engined A350.
According to J.C Spinetta during a conference last july 30th, Airbus is taking a too long time to announce an agreement wth GE ... If Airbus fails to do so, then you can consider AF will go for the 787 ... as it is rumored since the beginning.
Considering that this order will be placed of course for AF-KL ...

So, does it mean that AF is likely to choose an engine rather than an airplane???

Would AF be the only airline going thus far?


User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7064 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3004 times:



Quoting Oby (Thread starter):
Also, what would you think if I said that Alaska Airlines just entered discussions wth Boeing regarding a twinaisle airplane?

I would ask for your source  Smile

Quoting Oby (Thread starter):
Also, im not quite sure with either LX, BM. But, I believe we will see a split order from LH along with AF-KL,

I don't think that LH will split their order but from what you read over the internet over the last few months I have the impression that the 787 is leading right now.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineFRNT787 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1324 posts, RR: 15
Reply 14, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3004 times:



Quoting Plairbus (Reply 11):
FRNT787 you are funny, you think that all the airlines are going to order the 787 and only IB the 350 but still there you think in surprise... wow, you are a big Boeing Fan right?
Personally I think that LH will go for the 350, no 787! IB for sure too and AF is under national pressure to buy some big Airbus planes so even if we all say that Europaen Airlines buy what is the best for them, I really think AF is going to buy 350, at least first, later perhaps 787.

You know something, in reading my prior post you are somewhat correct.

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 1):
but I am under the impression that the 787 will be ordered first by both of these groups in a first round of orders, and the A350s later on.

I mentioned this, but forgot to mention how I felt the A350 could fit in to the fleets.

For LH, I would not be shocked by anything they decide. Both the 787 and A350 could have places. But, as they have said they feel the 787-8 is too small, and they are less than interested in the 787-3, then I would have to agree, and give the A350 the upper hand in this one. But I do not believe they will order the A350-1000. If they choose A350 I believe it will be the -800 and -900 making a longhaul fleet of:

A350:
-800
-900

747-8i

A380


As for AF, I do not believe they will order the A350 for national pressure. (Just as say the...USAF...has not ordered a plane based on national pressure.) Excluding the GE engine argument, I look at the time line for replacement (i.e. The 777s are NOT for replacement yet) then I have to give 787 the upper hand in this one. BUT, again, I would not be surprised with an A350 order, but it would come as an order benefiting Air France, not national pride.

Quoting Plairbus (Reply 11):
Lets see, finally we all do not know and our hard sometimes make us write ideas that are perhaps not very logic... By the way I am still waiting for IB ordering the 380!

I think I had some logic, I just forgot the rest of it.  Smile  Smile

Quoting Plairbus (Reply 11):
FRNT787 you are funny, you think that all the airlines are going to order the 787 and only IB the 350 but still there you think in surprise... wow, you are a big Boeing Fan right?

Yes, I am a Boeing fan. But I have no hatred or dislike for Airbus. As an aviation enthusiest, I am happy to have large Airbus and Boeing fleets around, and I want that to continue. As for the IB comment:

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 1):
This one seems quite obvious to me, but I have been surprised before.

This is simply my way of not ruling anything out. For example, I had ruled out a Gulf Air 787 order, and now they are awaiting 24 of them. BUT the likelihood of this surprise was barely worth its typing.



"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7064 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2970 times:



Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 14):
But I do not believe they will order the A350-1000.

They have recently said that they are not interested in the A350-1000 right now which is likelz because of their 747-8I order.
The 787-9 would make a great A343 replacement and at a later date also the A333.
Engine communality with the 747-8I is also a great plus.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineFRNT787 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1324 posts, RR: 15
Reply 16, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2929 times:



Quoting Columba (Reply 15):
The 787-9 would make a great A343 replacement and at a later date also the A333.
Engine communality with the 747-8I is also a great plus.

This is the only reason I would see them ordering the 787. If they did go this route, they may also take the A350-900 to have a plane of this size as well, similar to Singapore.



"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9449 posts, RR: 14
Reply 17, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2860 times:

You can say Delta will be new to a point. (taking over the NW orders) also I think we will see order more 8s and also place an order for the 9. The question is what will replace the 744s? could we see them buy some second hand 744s? replace with 787s? 748I? 77W? or the talked about 777-300ERX?


yep.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31011 posts, RR: 86
Reply 18, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2855 times:
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Well LH Teknik (sic) could very well be the joker in their deck. Some believe the only reason they ordered the 747-8I is to gain experience with the type so they can land maintenance contracts with all the VIP models and the freighters (since LH Cargo doesn't seem to need such a large hauler). So they might take the 787-9 for the same reason - perhaps LH Teknik will bid to win the European Gold Care provider contract.

The 787-9 might be more efficient then the A350-900 as an A330-300 replacement (thanks to the lower OEW). On the flip side, the A350-900 might make a better A340-300 replacement (thanks to the higher MTOW which will help payload over range). So both planes could operate together at LH, each serving a specific mission profile / plane replacement.


User currently offlineFruitbat From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2006, 551 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2828 times:



Quoting Aircellist (Reply 12):
o, does it mean that AF is likely to choose an engine rather than an airplane

Its an article of faith round here that AF a/c selections are dictated by engine choices!!

AF have never (with the exception of Concorde) selected an a/c with a RR-badged engine (anyone who knows better please feel free to correct me on this one...)

Despite much rumour and discussion, at this time the A350 is currently only available with RR engines.

So either Airbus find an alternative engine to offer on the A350 or (I think) AF will not order the latest Airbus offering.....can you imagine the reaction in Toulouse if AF don't order the A350 but take the 787 / 777NG (whatever that is) instead.......

So put AF/KLM down as definite 787-8/-9 customers and also as launch customer for the mythical -10  Smile ...... with GEnX engines!



Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals ... except the weasel.
User currently offlineFlySSC From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 7412 posts, RR: 57
Reply 20, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2798 times:



Quoting Aircellist (Reply 12):
So, does it mean that AF is likely to choose an engine rather than an airplane???

No, but the ENTIRE AF fleet from the smallest A318 to the biggest B744 is powered by GE engines. Thanks to ths choice, AF is saving millions of Euros each year in maintenance, spares, ground mechanic staff qualification etc ... so the choice of engine available for the future B787 or A350 AF order will definately an important factor.


User currently offlineRheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1968 posts, RR: 53
Reply 21, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2793 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
perhaps LH Teknik will bid to win the European Gold Care provider contract.

Lufthansa is known to be a staunch critic of the GoldCare theme. If they ever join the bandwagon, it would be a classic case of "if you can't fight 'em, join 'em".

It is pretty safe to assume that the 747-8I contract has clauses that allow both Lufthansa and Boeing to step back from the order in case a certain critical mass of customers and orders cannot be established.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31011 posts, RR: 86
Reply 22, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2743 times:
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Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 21):
It is pretty safe to assume that the 747-8I contract has clauses that allow both Lufthansa and Boeing to step back from the order in case a certain critical mass of customers and orders cannot be established.

27 is a critical mass of orders, so it has already been established.

I honestly don't know why people keep saying Boeing and/or LH will walk away from the 747-8I. Boeing has spent too much money (at least $300 million) to cancel it out of hand. And I am sure LH has no small investment into the program by now, as well.

I suppose part of it is the desire that the A380-800 own the skies to herself and somehow gain some mythic status as "the plane that killed the 747", but those people need to find a new hobby, IMO.


User currently offlineOby From Denmark, joined Aug 2008, 104 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2593 times:

What about the prospect of getting a ryan atlantic airlines, as a sub of ryanair, or maybe an esyjet one......
I would like think that SA will be one of the airlines ordering sone. they need new metal, as thy madethe mistake to switch their boeing fleet out with an airbus one. this was clearly a mistake when one has a look at fuel consumptio and turnaround times.


User currently offlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4328 posts, RR: 35
Reply 24, posted (6 years 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2569 times:



Quoting Fruitbat (Reply 19):
AF have never (with the exception of Concorde) selected an a/c with a RR-badged engine (anyone who knows better please feel free to correct me on this one...)

In the 1950s-80s AF had Caravelles (RR Avon), Viscounts and F-27s (RR Dart).



nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
25 LifelinerOne : Agreed, but the size of the order (at least 50+50) can make the difference here, because you will have a large enough fleet to justify the costs. Als
26 767nutter : Lufthansa want to keep the A346 for quite a while to run alongside the 748I and the A380, So they can easily alternate between routes for passenger de
27 Oby : Now that LH has a lot of "different" airlines under its wings, wouldn't that make a perfect scenario as to try out the different plane types. e.g. LX
28 DL767captain : LH: I think the 787 family would be very interesting to replace the A330 family as well as the lower A340 family (size wise). But the A350 would be be
29 DL767captain : Um i'm confused, i think US airways is the only A350 order, what other US airline are you thinking of?
30 Columba : Hawaian is the second US customer.
31 Rheinbote : Not at all, Stitch. The 747-8F is a great cargo plane and as such already is a sweeping success. And it's certainly the most appealing of all my desk
32 Fruitbat : quote=MEA-707,reply=24]In the 1950s-80s AF had Caravelles (RR Avon), Viscounts and F-27s (RR Dart).[/quote] I knew I shouldn't have typed what I did!
33 DeltaL1011man : AA will not order the A350 I wouldn't call HA bigger. I wouldn't call US,CO or NW bigger ether. When I see the "bigger" US airlines I see DL,AA and U
34 Stitch : I agree the 747-8I likely never had any great sales in her future. The A380-800 and 777-300ER are both just too good at what they do and are flexible
35 Manni : Thanks for informing me. Discussion closed. Your call. But let me rephrase my earlier statement, just for you... Of the bigger and 'not so bigger' in
36 Oby : well I guess it's a matter of your definition of a big airline. personally i wouldn't consider hawaiian a major, but CO, NW, AA, DL, UA, US and Southw
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