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Sabena / Swissair Worst Case Scenario  
User currently offlineSndp From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 553 posts, RR: 2
Posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 2241 times:

Sunday morning a Swiss newspaper wrote that Swissair is probably going to have a loss of 1,61 Billion Euro this year, not only due to the losses at Sabena and the French companies, but mainly because of operational losses at Swissair itself. The whole board of the company, except for one person, will quit within this and a year. A new strategy is needed, probably in cooperation with AA or BA. It is believed that one of those would take a minority stake in SR, though some fear for a hostile take over now that the market value of SR on the stock exchange market has decreased so much.
For Sabena, it is very unlikely that SAir will take an 85% majority stake, rising from the current 49,5% as they do not have the money and operational space for it. Swissair had indicated several times before that thye might drop Sabena. Current head of Sabena, Christoph Müller had a meeting with the unions yesterday in which he announced that in the worst case, which is SAir leaving Sabena and no partner is found to replace SAir, Sabena will have to cut 4000 jobs or 1 on 3 jobs. It is at this moment that the BElgian government, 50,5% stake holder in Sabena, has to take its responsibility.
sndp

92 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCeilidh From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 1880 times:

The worst case is that both companies will be liquidated. Sabena has consistently been a major lossmaker and it has so much 'baggage' that I cannot see any viable future for it. The Belgian government will simply have to swallow its pride and close it down.

Remember, under EU law, governments can no longer subsidise their airlines.


User currently offlineAussie_ From Australia, joined Dec 2000, 1766 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 1866 times:

I agree, but tell me: what happens in Belgium if Sabena goes down (which would take Virgin Express and probably Citybird with it)? Other than Ryanair rubbing its hands gleeflully?

Would another airline take it over (BA, LH, AF or similar), cut loss making routes, and keep the name Sabena? Or would the name disappear?

It's just I can't see the airline just totally disappearing: it would create a huge void smack bang in the middle of Europe. No enterprising airline (such as BA, LH or AF) would let that happen.

Then there are the lucrative African routes (mmm, AF would be interested...)

But then you have the question of competition as any such takeover would inevitably raise issues (maybe except AF which barely even flies to Belgium - all Paris customers are put on the train).

The more I think, it's an opportunity for AF, but I express my personal opinion. It would be good for Skyteam too to build up it's network and weight in Europe. Anyone else have anything to say on the matter?????

As for Swissair/Crossair, I think they'll stay after selling off the 3 French airlines and Sabena. And then they'll probably join Oneworld. The other option is a merger with BA which has already been mooted by the press.


User currently offlineAirbuspilot From Belgium, joined Apr 2000, 416 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 1856 times:

I would not panic so fast.
AA for example has shown more interest in SN than in SR. There is clear proof that if AA gets a choice it will start a cooperation with SN first and thereafter, if it is still needed, they would allow the swiss too participate.
You can not blame them, S-AIR made the biggest loss ever, only due to managment mistakes. I for one would not invest any money anymore in them.
we all tought SN was in bad shape but S-AIR is sinking even faster.That will teach them...They tought they could set the rules and play with the big boys...


User currently offlineAirbuspilot From Belgium, joined Apr 2000, 416 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 1850 times:

A couple of thoughts...

1)I do not see the swiss enetering a major alliance because:
*they have nothing left to offer.No money, no expensive slots, no airport and for sure no managers...
*no way that BA will let the swiss entering in there alliance. they know that the swiss wants to play the big boss and that will not work!

2)It is true that it is time that the Belgian government takes its responsabilities. And it seems they finally are doing that a little bit: no ratification of bilatteral and european transport agreements...
By the way, if the swiss wants to cancel their agreements with SN they have to pay so much money braking their contact agreements that SN is saved
anyway...
3)No more government aid is allowed?!?! AF only is profitable thanks to the favourable regime they can operate under and thanks to money comming from the state, IBERIA is still state owned and keeps on flying thanks to this support, same thing for olympic, Allitalia,...

Wke up boys an girls!!!!!!!!!!


User currently offlineSndp From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 553 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 1845 times:

I agree with the fact that the Swiss management has blaimed Sabena and its employees, both on top level and everything there under, fot the high losses. Now we can see that it is actually the Swiss management which has made a big mistake and see Swissair is in an even worse case than SN. So, please SAIR, do not blame the Belgians and certainly not our employees. We have like you to work with and we still want to do so but only if you have some respect for this airline. Because with a good management, Sabena can grow to a profitable carrier, maybe as part on an alliance. Brussels has space to grow, Sabena has improved their service to high standards, certainly on long range business class, so Sabena has a future, with or without SAir.
sndp


User currently offlineAvion From Bouvet Island, joined May 1999, 2205 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1833 times:

airbuspilot:
What does Sabena have to offer to AA?? More than SR. Surely not.

Tom


User currently offlineSaint-Exupery From Switzerland, joined Mar 2001, 47 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1825 times:

I think Swissair would perfectly fit into a major alliance because it's still a high-quality airline (compared with Air France, Alitalia or Iberia) and it's name has still a good reputation.
The same for Crossair which is among the best europeen regional airlines.
So if Sairgroup can get rid of his french subsidarys and the new management does well, the future is bright.


User currently offlineLumumba From Belgium, joined Mar 2001, 369 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1819 times:

I think your analysis is not right avion.
I think because SABENA is weaker there are more interesting than swissair for AA.
ciao


User currently offlineLumumba From Belgium, joined Mar 2001, 369 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1809 times:

I think your analysis is not right avion.
I think because SABENA is weaker there are more interesting than swissair for AA.
ciao


User currently offlineLumumba From Belgium, joined Mar 2001, 369 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1801 times:

I think your analysis is not right avion.
I think because SABENA is weaker there are more interesting than swissair for AA.
ciao


User currently offlineLumumba From Belgium, joined Mar 2001, 369 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1796 times:

I think your analisys is not right.
I think becaus SABENA is weaker there are more interesting than swissair for AA.
ciao


User currently offlineLumumba From Belgium, joined Mar 2001, 369 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1804 times:

Avion i think your analisys is not right.
I think becaus SABENA is weaker there are more interesting than swissair for AA;
ciao


User currently offlineSaint-Exupery From Switzerland, joined Mar 2001, 47 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1808 times:

Avion, the question is, what has SN and SR to offer that could be interesting for AA ?
SN has a great african&european network an some north american destinations.
That's what is interesting for AA. With SR, they would get more things than they need.


User currently offlineMD-11 forever From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 1801 times:

Hello there!

Well it seems that some of you don't know about the facts at all. It's not true that the losses are mainly caused by Swissair itself. Fact is, that Sabena and the french affiliates are causing all the troubles. Of course the management of SAir Group is liable for the bad contacts they had (Sair Group pays the big part of the losses...), but it always takes two for such an event...
As for AA, I think they are more than happy with their partnership with Swissair. At least they have more benefits than with their "Big" Partner BA yet (anti-trust immunity ...) so I don't think that swissair is such a bad partner for them!


User currently offlineSaint-Exupery From Switzerland, joined Mar 2001, 47 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 1790 times:

Hello MD-11 forever
I know that most of the losses are made by Sabena and the french affiliates (some people are saying Swissair -180 mio SFr., Balair -30 mio SFr. Crossair -25 mio SFr. , frenchies -900 mio SFr., LTU
-360 mio SFr., Sabena -320 mio SFr. and Volare Group (Italy) -120 mio. SFr.)
Sairgroup with Swissair, Crossair and Balair could easy make money because the other Sairgroup companys like SRTechnic and SRRelations made tons of money.
I totally agree with you that SR is the better partner for AA. But if it get beyond, like a take-over, Sabena would be much cheaper and would exactly meet their needs.
Cheers


User currently offlineLumumba From Belgium, joined Mar 2001, 369 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 1783 times:

I'm agree whit you saint ex.
ciao


User currently offlineSR3496 From Switzerland, joined May 2000, 792 posts, RR: 20
Reply 17, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 1782 times:

Sabena's hub Brussels is one of the only European airports which has still a LOT of expansions possibilties.

But anyway, SR has the better network in Europe, North Afirca, the Near and Middle East. So Swissair is still a very interesting airline for AA.


User currently offlineAirbuspilot From Belgium, joined Apr 2000, 416 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (13 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 1776 times:

What has SN to offer to AA:

*A Hub which is ideal for all trans atlantic flights ,which is not saturated and has even possibilities for expansion.
*An African network which is one of the best in the world.
*A european network that can serve perfectly as a feeder for the AA longhaul network.
*A longhaul network which poses no threath to the AA network.Probably SN would loose the longhaul sector but will grow in European activity.
*SN is much cheaper to buy than the S-AIR group or Swissair.
*AA and SN have been working together for a long time. in fact 15 years ago there where allready talks going on about a cooperation.
*The Belgian government always has had a special relationship with the American government. Something that can not been said of the Swiss.
*SN is willing to be the underdog in a cooperation.AA would never accept to join in an alliance where somebody else has the rights to make decisions.I do not think the swiss are willing to be ruled over!

And by the way, SWISSAIR is a high quality airline but it does not offer more quality that SN,Lufthansa,KLM or any other major carrier!!!But off course the (German talking) SWISS think that they have the only HQ airline in the world. If they they keep on thinking like that
they will go bancrupt....TITANIC was beeing said to be unsincable also!!!!!Open your eyes guys, WWII is over!


User currently offlineSR3496 From Switzerland, joined May 2000, 792 posts, RR: 20
Reply 19, posted (13 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1774 times:

Airbuspilot:
Thanx for that  Yeah sure ...we will think about your stupid statements about the "German speaking Swiss".

But anywayz, I don't want to start a war with you...any discussion with you seems to be senseless.


User currently offlineAirbuspilot From Belgium, joined Apr 2000, 416 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (13 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1766 times:

Try me if you dare.
I presonally had one of you in the cockpit.
it was a copilot who thought he could come on board and tell us what to do.It did not last for long!!!!

I am always willing to argue with you but please bring on some serious statements. this is nothing personal you know, although the swiss seems to think this is!

Your reply is exactly what I wanted to say, you think you are the best in the world. Well now is your opportunity to prove it!


User currently offlineAirbuspilot From Belgium, joined Apr 2000, 416 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (13 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1761 times:

Question: are you a student at SR? because you certainly do not talk like an aviation professional!

User currently offlineIFF/7000 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (13 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1765 times:

Dear friends,
Today Mr Mueller said it would be possible that Sair and Sabena would divorce. This will cost a few thousands jobs within Sabena.
Why would AA, BA or LH be interested in Sabena ?
1.Brussels is very, very well located for an airline to start a second hub.In Europe only one airline (LH) out of the 13 has 2 hubs. Most American airlines have 3-4 hubs. Hub characteristics of BRU (The good ones) are geography and efficiency ( The bad ones) low local traffic base. But lots of expansion still possible.
2. Zurich is saturated, no expansion possible due to ecological restrictions and problems with the overflight of the German airspace for the app. into Zurich. Another big problem for the Swiss is the fact they're not in the EU.
3. Sabena is not in a position to have high demands, has a good Eu and Afr network. Sair (like KLM) wants to stay in charge while only BA,LH and AF are big and strong enough to survive. Just like American, Delta and United in the States.
4. Talks already started.


User currently offlineAvion From Bouvet Island, joined May 1999, 2205 posts, RR: 7
Reply 23, posted (13 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1761 times:

In fact no airline wants to burn its hands on Sabena. I doubt that any airline would be willing to buy the SR stake. If that would be the case it would already be sold.

Tom


User currently offlineSR3496 From Switzerland, joined May 2000, 792 posts, RR: 20
Reply 24, posted (13 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1766 times:

Hey Airbuspilot:
1. No, I'm not in the airline biz, your absolutely right. But I do sit in airplanes quite frequently (I mean of a normal student in CH quite a lot).
2. I know that Swissair has given much of their qualitly in the past years - SN has improved the quality. I think that the commercial I read shortly "www.most-improved-airline.com" is correct. Really, SN is equal in quality with KLM, LH or SR. In Y they are really almost the same.
3. Maybe I'm stupid, but "...although the swiss seems to think this is" is not really a intelligent statement. How many Swiss people do you know? And you throw all of them into one pot. Seems to be a little bit unfair.
4. For the AA partnership: I stated before that BRU is a very interesting airport in Europe.
5. I don't want to start a war with you, I stated this before. So I'll stop here.
6. I'm sorry. You could be right.........I overreacted. Maybe because I'm really sad what is happening to SR right now.


25 IFF/7000 : Dear Avion, I can assure you a lot of airlines would like to take over SN but not the 49.5%. If they get more than 50% they can restructure as it plea
26 Avion : I tell you SAir wants to get rid of SN as soon as possible. For LH or BA more than 50% would not be a problem as the whole airline is up for sale. Nob
27 TriStar : I'm glad there are people willing to spread their intelligence and deep aviation business insight with the rest of us. Boy, some people are really ful
28 Ceilidh : The whole SAir Group is amazing. Look at the numbers posted by Saint-Exupery - not one of their airline companies made a cent; all made a cent in prof
29 Avion : Ceilidh: SR, SN, the french Airlines do only represent a small percentage of the customer base of GateGourmet, Flightlease, SR Technics and so on. Sab
30 IFF/7000 : Hi Tom Avion, Same problem as SR 3496, what do you really know about aviation? Ever been in a cockpit,I mean flying.Or have you been watching Airport
31 Gaut : If SR sells SN does it mean that Swissair loses the right to flight within EU?
32 IFF/7000 : Hi again Tomavion, Do you know what an IFF is? If you find out get the correct # . then we'll see what you really know/not know. Hope to see you soon,
33 Saint-Exupery : Gaut At the moment SR has no general right to flight within EU. But if it eventually goes alive, the bilateral contracts between EU and Switzerland wi
34 IFF/7000 : This could take 3 to 5 more years. See you in 5 y
35 Avion : Well IFF is Identification Friend or Foe. Tom
36 Myself : Dear Avion, according to me you are one of the moderators on the Yahoo Groups Swissair-forum. But even if you aren't I am convinced that your place is
37 Airbuspilot : Well well tomavion, you do have some Buck Danny albums!!! why dont you tell us what you do in aviation? I BET IT IS NOT MUCH SO PLEASE KEEP IT FOR YOU
38 Teahan : Hey, I am the Owner of the Swissair Yahoo Group. I certainly feel that Sabena could be a great advantage to Swissair. I really don't want to repeat wh
39 Airbuspilot : Thank you Teahan. There should be more users like you on this forum. Avion, please take example!!! We had an opportunity with both carriers working to
40 Airbuspilot : hh
41 IFF/7000 : Good Tomavion, An IFF is used to recognise your friends, it's a military transponder.And "strangle parrot" means stop squawking!
42 MD-11 forever : Hello Ceilidh I'm a bit late to reply you, but I want to clarify one thing, SR Technics is not charging astronomic prices to any customer, if this wou
43 LJ : Before, this becomes a SN-SR fight and who will team up with AA I want to give my worst-case scenario (and I hope it won't happen). SAirGroup may try
44 Myself : On March 13th, the decision was taken to keep AMP operational, meaning the merger of SN-SR will be continued (for now). This means that the new strate
45 Sndp : Myself, what is the source for your info concerning the fact that AMP will keep operating? sndp
46 Myself : As you ask what my source is, I gather you have also understood that AMP is the spine of SN-SR-Crossair. It's the only guarantee BOTH companies have t
47 Myself : More : two different "sources" (quite reliable ones) state that Müller is moving his office to Zurich, if you all know what I mean. Still : No Panic
48 IFF/7000 : Hi Myself, The 26th of march SSP-VPOD have a meeting at Genève, Zurich and Bâle. They want garanties from the management that there will be no loss
49 Lumumba : Hi IFF/7000 i'm agree with you. But like you said we have to wait. ciao
50 Flying lsd : IN a financial french speaking belgian newspaper of this morning,we could read that this afternoon(friday 16 th) SairGroup will announce that C.Mülle
51 Myself : Very good !!!!
52 Sndp : As you can read in my other post, Müller is not the new haed of Swissair but mister Corti, currently working at Nestlé and member of SAir's board. s
53 IFF/7000 : Isd Wishfull thinking, would be nice but it's not very correct. One thing is correct Sair and SN are to close to split up without more financial loss.
54 Saint-Exupery : Mr. Corti is CEO of Sairgroup, not Swissair.
55 Myself : I'm not so sure about that OneWorld-thing either. Something else : I believe the director of North American ops at SN is M. Lindekens. If he is to bec
56 Myself : To IFF/7000 As the events in Switzerland indicate, there really is a need for a new "model" at both companies with employees of both companies asking
57 Sndp : Corti is indeed head of SAir and Swissair, excuse me for the mistake. sndp
58 Cfalk : I just flew business class on Sabena to and from Dallas last week. The plane was an A330, and I was amazed that the plane is EXACTLY the same as the S
59 Sndp : Cfalk, I think the losses maid this finally clear tot the management (old and new) and I think and hope we may see some importvement in the future. SA
60 IFF/7000 : Myself, A low-cost feeder is indeed a must. 50-seater like the Embraer would be ideal. I suppose you've seen the example of Delta.And that's not the o
61 Sndp : There have been romours that former employees of Constellation would start a new airline, working at lower cost than Sabena and providing feeder fligh
62 IFF/7000 : It's not a rumour, they did indeed but they offered their product to lots of companies not only SN.
63 Airbuspilot : I tought it was Air-belgium who made the offer. I know for a fact that the company never stopped to excist. They still have their offices in Brussels.
64 TriStar : Airbuspilot is correct; it regards (ex-)Air Belgium. Best regards, TriStar.
65 Sndp : The fact that I have to pay som much attention to my final thesis at universioty, causes me to make some stupid mistakes because I have not got the po
66 TriStar : Tell us about it, sndp... Good to know there are people who care. Best regards, TriStar.
67 Myself : Concerning Corti's statement about getting rid of SN : IMO the man is not completely desinfected from the "Honegger-disease". As I said before : closi
68 Sndp : The least you can say is that these are intersting times for Belgian aviation. A few weeks ago we had to deal with an almost dissapearing national car
69 Sabenapilot : Did you know that Mr. Honneger (spelling?) has been given 5 million Swiss francs to lay down the function of CEO of the Sair group? Not bad for a guy
70 Myself : Airbuspilot, Could you please tell a bit more about what else was said on that tv-program ?
71 Danialanwar : Let's just look at the simple marcoeconomic reality - both Switzerland and Belgium are high cost countries. It's surely a wiser concept to have a high
72 Airbuspilot : Myself, which television programme are you talking about?
73 Gilles : I think Sabena doesn't have to worry about its future. Ithink that Swissair tries to put the pressure on the belgian government for the possible negoc
74 Lumumba : But why is SABENA not making money?????????????? If sombody with the right explanatoin can tell my. Regars
75 Sndp : Where do you want us to start? High labour costs in Belgium? Undercapitalisation? Small home market? Management mistakes in the past? Strikes (thought
76 Lumumba : Hi sndp. O.k i understand but in 75 years you have to find a solution??????????? ciao
77 Sndp : They have not been looking for a solution since the deregulation in Europe, read beginning of the 90's. Untill then, most of the European airlines wer
78 Airbuspilot : Do not forget that SN for years have been state owned.Due to this fact a lot of people got ajob on the wrong desk, they where being appointed by a min
79 Sndp : I hope it with you, Airbuspilot, I really do. sndp
80 Saint-Exupery : There are reports in some Newspapers in Switzerland that Mr. Corti wants to cut down Swissairs longhaul fleet (about 7-12 planes), reduce the shorthau
81 Sabenapilot : Hi there, It must be said that several international studies show that the flat rate (or max. flight hours) of the pilots has noting to do with the pr
82 Airbuspilot : I think we have some sort of a future with SR but it should be based upon mutual respect and not one company ( in this case SR ) who rules and the oth
83 Myself : Sorry, I can't help it for being quite jumpy about the remark that SN pilots don't fly more hours than other colleagues in Europe, but : 1. It's more
84 Sndp : Myself, could you please explain what you mean by the block hour thing? I don't really understand that. thanx sndp
85 Myself : Which part in particular ?
86 ILoVeA340 : Sabena is making losses for many reasons of these are: 1. lower load factors 2. Higher fuel prices 3. a few pointless routes. (also they have way to m
87 Myself : 1. When you say that you have flown BRU-ZRH in a Sn plane, that must have been about 5 years ago, because since then SR flies the BRU-ZRH sector and S
88 Aussie_ : Sorry, but what is AMP?
89 Sndp : Myself, could you give more information about the block hour thing in point four of your last but one post. Thank you. sndp
90 Myself : To Sndp (point 4 about B/B times) When operating in a hub-and-spoke structure it is essential from a commercial point of view to offer an attractive p
91 Sndp : Thanx, myself, for the extra information, very interesting indeed. You seem to be very well informed concerning Sabena, nice to have you on the forum,
92 Post contains images TriStar : Long live QTC and the people working there. Best regards, TriStar.
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