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Brazil Air Traffic Jan/Jul 2008: Top 20 Airports  
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 4464 times:

Here are the official aiport statistics of Brazil comprising the ranking of the top 20 major airports in the country measured by passangers traffic and year-on-year percentage growth.
The data is sourced from INFRAERO.

-----------------

Top 20 Airports January-July 2008
(pax traffic: domestic+international - million pax)

1. Guarulhos-GRU: 12,124
3. Congonhas-CGH: 7,978
2. Galeao-GIG: 6,552
4. Brasilia-BSB: 6,441
5. Salvador-SSA: 3,613
tttt
7. Confins-CNF: 2,911
8. Porto Alegre-POA:t2,845
6. Recife-REC: 2,798
9. Curitiba-CWB: 2,575
10. Fortaleza-FOR: 2,087
tttt
11. Santos Dumont-SDU: 2,021
12. Florianopolis-FLN: 1,321
13. Belem-BEL: 1,307
14. Vitoria-VIX: 1,212
16. Manaus-MAO: 1,125
tttt
15. Natal-NAT: 0,995
17. Goiania-GYN: 0,951
18. Cuiaba-CGB: 0,812
19. Campinas-CPQ/VCP: 0,653
20. Maceio-MCZ: 0,582

As compared with previous years, the following airports gained position in the rank:
- GIG overtook BSB as no.3;
- CNF overtook POA as no. 7;
- FLN overtook BEL as no. 12;
-VIX overtook MAO as no. 14.

-----------------

Lets see now the performance of GRU and GIG according to breakdown of domestic and international passengers.

International Pax Traffic for Sao Paulo-GRU and Rio de Janeiro-GIG
(mllilion pax and year-on-year % growth)

Sao Paulo-GRU: 5,266(2008) 4,882(2007) = +8%
Rio de Janeiro-GIG:1,256(2008) 1,268(2007) = -1%

Domestic Pax Traffic for Sao Paulo-GRU and Rio de Janeiro-GIG
(mllilion pax and year-on-year % growth)

Sao Paulo-GRU: 6,858(2008) 5,533(2007) = +24%
Rio de Janeiro-GIG: 5,265(2008) 4,346(2007) = +21%

Based on above, GIG had shown a very poor performance in international traffic, with a decrease of -1%. This comes as a surprise but will be reverted due to new international flight or capacity increase among which TAM, BA, AF and CO.

GRU is expected to continue its strong growth both domestic and international as new routes and especially new capacity are added although the airport has serious infrastructural limitations which could curtail part of the growth.

-------------

Top 20 Airports January-July 2008 (total year-on-year % growth )

1. Confins-CNF: 25,2%
2. Cuiaba-CGB: 20,7%
3. Curitiba-CWB: 18,1%
4. Campinas-CPQ/VCP: 16,7%
5. Galeao-GIG: 16,6%

6. Guarulhos-GRU: 16,4%
7. Recife-REC: 15,9%
8. Florianopolis-FLN: 14,0%
9. Porto Alegre-POA: 11,7%
10. Vitoria-VIX: 9,9%

11. Belem-BEL: 8,5%
12. Natal-NAT: 7,6%
13. Brasilia-BSB: 6,9%
14. Goiania-GYN: 5,5%
25. Maceio-MCZ: 4,7%

16. Salvador-SSA: 2,2%
17. Santos Dumont-SDU: 1,2%
18. Fortaleza-FOR: -4,0%
19. Manaus-MAO: -2,3%
20. Congonhas-CGH: -20,8%

For the year 2009 we could see a significant increase in pax in SDU as limitations on operations in SDU are being discussed and Azul announced they will probably make SDU their base. This could lead to some traffic relocation from GIG to the more attractive SDU.

In addition, BSB continues constrained because of airport infrastructural limitations as the airport operates at full capacity and expansion is urgently necessary (the traffic difference between GIG and BSB is very small, only about 100,000 pax).

Rgs,

[Edited 2008-09-16 06:03:46]

75 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3736 posts, RR: 19
Reply 1, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4378 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Thread starter):
Based on above, GIG had shown a very poor performance in international traffic, with a decrease of -1%. This comes as a surprise but will be reverted due to new international flight or capacity increase among which TAM, BA, AF and CO.

That's no surprise at all, since the loads on European flights have decreased. What's growing is the market to the USA for which GRU has the majority of flights.


User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 2, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4360 times:



Quoting C010T3 (Reply 1):
That's no surprise at all, since the loads on European flights have decreased. What's growing is the market to the USA for which GRU has the majority of flights.

Loads Brazil-Europe are still high which is a surprising given the major capacity increase over recent months. For example in the case of GRU we have an aggressive expansion by TAM to Europe, plus expansion by European airlines with IB double daily, AZ increase from 7 weekly to 10 weekly, LH dedicated B747, KL B77W, etc. Regarding other regions, we also have the arrival of EK and KE in GRU. It all led to a very solid growth of GRU international pax numbers to +8%.

All in all, we can easily note that Brazil-Europe is growing at the same pace if not more than Brazil-US. Of coure, for the end of 2008 we will see Brazil-US growing more as TAM focuses on this market and the US-Brazil new bilateral starts to be implemented by US carriers.

Rgs,


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11459 posts, RR: 58
Reply 3, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4357 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Thread starter):
Based on above, GIG had shown a very poor performance in international traffic, with a decrease of -1%. This comes as a surprise but will be reverted due to new international flight or capacity increase among which TAM, BA, AF and CO.

Considering the international scenario, call a 1% drop as "very poor" i believe is too much. We're looking for several airlines reducing services (or even all operations). GRU increase as per above comments from C010T3 are based on the fact GRU received new services to LAX, DXB, LIM, RG to MEX/MAD/CDG/FRA/LHR (now suspended), TAM new services to MAD, FRA, CCS and MVD as well as upgrades on AA (777), DL during summer.
GIG in the opposite shows a new service to CDG by AF, more services to LAD and new service to LIM (besides a not regular service to FRA which long less than a month) with the lost of UX. RG played a very important role for GRU growing.
As you might see, GRU got a lot of additions, but already lost MEX (2), MAD, CDG, FRA, LHR, SCL (2), LIM (G3) and next year their numbers could not be so good.

And be in mind, CO, DL, G3, TAM and BA additional capacity is about to come, and there was no further reductions.

Quoting Hardiwv (Thread starter):
GRU is expected to continue its strong growth both domestic and international as new routes and especially new capacity are added although the airport has serious infrastructural limitations which could curtail part of the growth.

GRU growth will be based on aircraft upgrades and a few upgrades in frequencies. TAM will begin services to LIM, AM will add 2 more flights, but LH is about to reduce 2.
In terms of upgrades, there will be a lot from AA, AC and UA.
And the fact that CNF, SSA, REC, GIG, FOR and MAO become better services to the US, isn't clear how it may affect GRU. Lets see how demand reacts.

Quoting Hardiwv (Thread starter):
In addition, BSB continues constrained because of airport infrastructural limitations as the airport operates at full capacity and expansion is urgently necessary (the traffic difference between GIG and BSB is very small, only about 100,000 pax).

BSB lost it's RG mini-hub which explains the fast growing during 2Q 2008 but at this time is hard to find out what will happen.

Quoting Hardiwv (Thread starter):
1. Confins-CNF: 25,2%
2. Cuiaba-CGB: 20,7%
3. Curitiba-CWB: 18,1%
4. Campinas-CPQ/VCP: 16,7%
5. Galeao-GIG: 16,6%

This is very interesting... CNF is growing so much that it's closer to SSA. CGB continue to be the fast growing market since 2005, CWB recovers from a bad 2006, VCP grows a lot but begin to lost some of it's new services (TAM will drop 3 flights).



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 4, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 4336 times:

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 3):
Considering the international scenario, call a 1% drop as "very poor" i believe is too much

I consider GIG's -1% very poor and disapointing. But as I mentioned and you agree, the prospect looks very promising starting from October 2008 onwards. On the other hand, regarding domestic traffic, we have to keep an eye on what will happen regarding SDU operations.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 3):
As you might see, GRU got a lot of additions and next year their numbers could not be so good.



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 3):
GRU growth will be based on aircraft upgrades and a few upgrades in frequencies. TAM will begin services to LIM, AM will add 2 more flights, but LH is about to reduce 2.

I think numbers of GRU will continue very good and always in the positive mark. We will see upgrades by end of the year AC, UA, AA, DL, AM and next year LH will return with daily MUC, AF B77W. Plus a second daily DXB-GRU is about to be announced with the A345 (which will operate Japan-DXB-GRU). Plus TAM new services such as GRU-MCO, GRU-LIM, major upgrades with the B77Ws to LHR and FRA and certainly more new routes to come in 2009.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 3):
And be in mind, CO, DL, G3, TAM and BA additional capacity is about to come, and there was no further reductions.

As I said, we can expect GIG to revert the decline (-1%). Apart from what is announced we can expect even more routes in GIG in 2009.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 3):
This is very interesting... CNF is growing so much that it's closer to SSA. CGB continue to be the fast growing market since 2005, CWB recovers from a bad 2006, VCP grows a lot but begin to lost some of it's new services (TAM will drop 3 flights).

FLN, VIX, POA and REC also are growing strong. In total (domestic and international) both GRU and GIG are also showing firm growth, although as I mentioned GIG more related to domestic traffic.

Rgs,

[Edited 2008-09-16 11:21:38]

User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11459 posts, RR: 58
Reply 5, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 4302 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 4):
I consider GIG's -1% very poor and disapointing. But as I mentioned and you agree, the prospect looks very promising starting from October 2008 onwards. On the other hand, regarding domestic traffic, we have to keep an eye on what will happen regarding SDU operations.

Agree with the future developments and the prospects!

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 4):
Plus a second daily DXB-GRU is about to be announced with the A345 (which will operate Japan-DXB-GRU

That's why GRU grows based on the growing of Brazil. Airlines that use to fly to several places in any other country, faces the friendly Brazilian Government which allows all flights to the very same destination. There's no way GRU wouldn't grow considering it's almost the " sole " international airport of Brazil.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11459 posts, RR: 58
Reply 6, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 4290 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 4):
FLN, VIX, POA and REC also are growing strong. In total (domestic and international) both GRU and GIG are also showing firm growth, although as I mentioned GIG more related to domestic traffic.

GRU in fact shows the same pax CGH lost (CGH was bigger and all domestic, so 20% means almost the same as the domestic growing GRU shows), VIX is almost on the national average growth rate, but agree that REC shows an impressive growing. POA is reducing it's growth (use to be closer to 22%) and FLN, being more of a leisure market, feels more the high-fare scenario Brazil shows (IIRC FLN was also showing a huge growing higher than 20%)

October probably will show a better picute considering the TAM accident and it's changes on the Infraero network (i.e. huge growing at GRU, GIG and CNF with reduction of activity at SDU and CGH, which now has been reverted)



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 7, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 4282 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 6):
GRU in fact shows the same pax CGH lost

GIG as well show about same pax as CGH lost. Plus the advantage of having no competition from SDU - in Sao Paulo CGH continues to compete for domestic pax with GRU.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 6):
FLN, being more of a leisure market, feels more the high-fare scenario Brazil shows (IIRC FLN was also showing a huge growing higher than 20%)

FLN has serious infrastructural problems and the situation of the airport is of complete neglect.

Many airports in Brazil could have grown much more if it was not for infrastructural-capacity problems which affected performance of airports such as BSB, GYN, FLN, VIX, GRU among others.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 6):
October probably will show a better picute considering the TAM accident and it's changes on the Infraero network (i.e. huge growing at GRU, GIG and CNF with reduction of activity at SDU and CGH, which now has been reverted)

In my view CGH will be one of the stronger performers because its growth will be compared with the nove diving performance of 2007/2008.

In case Azul base is confirmed for SDU we will also see strong growth here.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 5):
That's why GRU grows based on the growing of Brazil.

This shows the important role payed by the airport in the development of Brazil. Also important to note that GRU grew with Brazil, while other airports have not shown the same going into negative numbers or much more modest rate (domestic and/or internatilonal).

Rgs,


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3736 posts, RR: 19
Reply 8, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 4256 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 2):
Loads Brazil-Europe are still high which is a surprising given the major capacity increase over recent months. For example in the case of GRU we have an aggressive expansion by TAM to Europe, plus expansion by European airlines with IB double daily, AZ increase from 7 weekly to 10 weekly, LH dedicated B747, KL B77W, etc. Regarding other regions, we also have the arrival of EK and KE in GRU. It all led to a very solid growth of GRU international pax numbers to +8%.

All in all, we can easily note that Brazil-Europe is growing at the same pace if not more than Brazil-US. Of coure, for the end of 2008 we will see Brazil-US growing more as TAM focuses on this market and the US-Brazil new bilateral starts to be implemented by US carriers.

Rgs,

You didn't understand what I meant. The loads on the European flights fell, but it wasn't a large drop, but it was felt in the whole network as a result of the addition of capacity. Y is the class that influences the loads the most, since most seats are Y. Y passengers are normally price sensitive and they will connect at GRU in order to get better fares. When lower fares at GIG are taken, they go for GRU, which has a larger number of seats available. GIG couldn't compensate the passengers lost on the European flights with passengers to the US, because the increase wasn't substantial. A lot of passengers from Rio fly through GRU in order to reach the US and the growth of the market was seen there. If GIG had one or two more flights to the US, we could have seen a similar growth in percentage.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11459 posts, RR: 58
Reply 9, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 4232 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 7):
This shows the important role payed by the airport in the development of Brazil. Also important to note that GRU grew with Brazil, while other airports have not shown the same going into negative numbers or much more modest rate (domestic and/or internatilonal).

Instead of going into the GIG vs GRU never end discussion, i just point out that while we have a government looking for a single airport policy, we will never have comfort, flexibility or equal development.
Of course one grow, the other not... put all the eggs into a single basket and you saw the result.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineClo1973 From Colombia, joined Apr 2006, 243 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 4197 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Thread starter):
Lets see now the performance of GRU and GIG according to breakdown of domestic and international passengers.

What is the international traffic (pax) for airports different than GRU and GIG....


User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 11, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 4150 times:



Quoting Clo1973 (Reply 10):
What is the international traffic (pax) for airports different than GRU and GIG....

This is negligeble compared to GRU and GIG and mainly in Northeast Brazil (because of TAP plus charter airlines from Europe) and South Brazil (regional and charter flights mainly from Argentina/Uruguay/Chile).

We can expect growth in international traffic in other airports than GRU and GIG because of the new routes by AA and DL which will start flights to MAO, CNF, REC, FOR.

Top International Airports excluding GRU and GIG (Jan-Jul/08):

3. POA-Porto Alegre: 241,510 (+13.5%)
4. SSA-Salvador: 233,442 (-4.7%)
5. FOR-Fortaleza: 140,548 (-7.5%)
6. REC-Recife: 136,463 (+33.5%)
7. FLN-Florianopolis: 132,586 (+6.3%)
8. NAT-Natal: 104,218 (-22.9%)

Rgs,


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11459 posts, RR: 58
Reply 12, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4100 times:
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Quoting Clo1973 (Reply 10):
What is the international traffic (pax) for airports different than GRU and GIG....

In other words, ALL other terminals in Brazil represents 17.11% of international traffic. We are talking about 53% of Brazilian GDP (or if we even consider only Greater São Paulo and Rio, amazing 86% of GDP). Of course you can't connect CWB and POA at SSA because there are no non stop services between such city's (even being each one bigger than 2mm people).

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 11):
We can expect growth in international traffic in other airports than GRU and GIG because of the new routes by AA and DL which will start flights to MAO, CNF, REC, FOR.

We're talking about 4,400 seats on AA and about 2,640 on DL per week... 28,160 per month, just 330,000 per year. Too few to a deep change, considering:

GRU will got at least 550,000-750,000 more seats:
TAM service to MCO - 160,600 seats/year
TAM upgrades to 77W (+ 140 seats in two routes) - 102,200 seats / year
AA upgrades to 77W (+ 55 seats in three flights ) - 120,450 seats / year
AC upgrade to 77W... around 70,000 seats/year
UA upgrades to 77W..
new flight from EK...
Additional flights from AM
Potential new TAM service to JNB...

GIG will got about 330,000:
TAM 11x weekly 763 new services to MIA/JFK - 234,930 seats / year
BA dedicated service to LHR
DL upgrade to 764
TAAG more services to LAD

Interesting to see POA as the number 3, which also give us the idea the airport would be able to manage flight to Europe and US. POA is very well connected to MVD, EZE and the sole Brazilian Gateway to COR and ROS. The entire South of Brazil does not hold a single flight to Europe or north of South America & Central / North America.

So we will continue to see just a small gain on the other airports, and a huge concentration in São Paulo (about 67%) which may go down to 66% next year.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineClo1973 From Colombia, joined Apr 2006, 243 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4093 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 11):
his is negligeble compared to GRU and GIG and mainly in Northeast Brazil

Thanks for the info!.

I was amazed when I read your figures of the high amount of traffic (local) of airports different than those of Sao Paulo and Rio compared to traffic of Colombia´s No. 2 and 3 airports (CLO and MDE)....which YTD July have moved 0.98 and 0.88 million pax. The latter means than CLO would rank as 16th and MDE as 18th in Brazil

On the other hand, International traffic of CLO and MDE (YTD July) was 0.3 and 0.34 million pax respectively, so these two airports would be No. 4 and 3 in Brazil.

Overall, if CLO and MDE were in Brazil they would rank as 14th and 15th...

Well I´m not saying this matters to you, but I thought it would be interesting for me to do the comparison...


User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 14, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 4069 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
We're talking about 4,400 seats on AA and about 2,640 on DL per week... 28,160 per month, just 330,000 per year. Too few to a deep change, considering:

Correct. Even with the new flight they will certainly not change the landscape of Brazil's international traffic which will remain heavily concentrated in TAM's two hubs: GRU and GIG.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
AA upgrades to 77W (+ 55 seats in three flights ) - 120,450 seats / year

I think it will be upgraded to B772? By the end of the year AA will deploy on a daily 4 daily B772 in GRU plus one daily B767.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
Interesting to see POA as the number 3, which also give us the idea the airport would be able to manage flight to Europe and US

POA is a natural hub to deep South America regional flights because of its location. I think POA could also receive nonstop flights to SCL with a tag-on like: FLN-POA-SCL.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
and a huge concentration in São Paulo (about 67%) which may go down to 66% next year.

The concentration is a market characteristic of many countries because it reflects airlines operational decision. In the case of Brazil the concentration is in fact less prominent because TAM has tw hubs GRU and GIG and because Rio de Janeiro is an important economic centre.

Look for example the situation of concentration in other countries such as South Africa (JNB), Russia (Moscow airports), France (CDG), Germany (FRA), Mexico (MEX), Argentina (EZE), Chile (SCL), Peru (LIM), UK (London airports), Thailand (BKK), South Korea (ICN), Spain (MAD), etc.

At least in Brazil we have an important emerging airport in GIG which in the words of TAM President became TAM second hub. The problem is that GIG is very close to GRU, perhaps it would have been better if the second hub was located in REC, or FOR instead. But then again market dynamics dictate airlines decisions.

Quoting Clo1973 (Reply 13):
I was amazed when I read your figures of the high amount of traffic (local) of airports different than those of Sao Paulo and Rio

Brazil is a continental country and therefore domestic traffic is important and growing fast. BSB traffic for example is very strong and is one of Brazil's most important domestic hub linking North to South.

Quoting Clo1973 (Reply 13):
traffic of Colombia´s No. 2 and 3 airports (CLO and MDE)....which YTD July have moved 0.98 and 0.88 million pax. The latter means than CLO would rank as 16th and MDE as 18th in Brazil

On the other hand, International traffic of CLO and MDE (YTD July) was 0.3 and 0.34 million pax respectively, so these two airports would be No. 4 and 3 in Brazil.

Overall, if CLO and MDE were in Brazil they would rank as 14th and 15th...

Well I´m not saying this matters to you, but I thought it would be interesting for me to do the comparison

Thank you for your very interesting information. One of the reasons many airlines focus their flights on GRU and GIG is because of the limitations in the bilateral. If they dont have frequencies they focus on markets which provides higher yields "placing all eggs in one basket" as mentioned by Lipe above.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
GRU will got at least 550,000-750,000 more seats:
TAM service to MCO - 160,600 seats/year
TAM upgrades to 77W (+ 140 seats in two routes) - 102,200 seats / year
AA upgrades to 77W (+ 55 seats in three flights ) - 120,450 seats / year
AC upgrade to 77W... around 70,000 seats/year
UA upgrades to 77W..
new flight from EK...
Additional flights from AM
Potential new TAM service to JNB...

GIG will got about 330,000:
TAM 11x weekly 763 new services to MIA/JFK - 234,930 seats / year
BA dedicated service to LHR
DL upgrade to 764
TAAG more services to LAD

Thanks for the very interesting overview of potential seat increase for the coming months in GRU and GIG.

In the case of GIG I think seat increase will be over 400,000 as you also have to include CO new flights and GIG will get new frequencies to the US in 2009. Also, as more international flights are available in GIG, many pax will migrate out of GRU to GIG because GIG has better domestic connections to many key destinations eg VIX, CNF, BSB, among others.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3736 posts, RR: 19
Reply 15, posted (6 years 3 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 4049 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 14):
because GIG has better domestic connections to many key destinations eg VIX, CNF, BSB, among others.

That's mainly because CGH overshadows GRU. With time I think we will come to some more balance at SAO, which is healthy.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11459 posts, RR: 58
Reply 16, posted (6 years 3 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 4039 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 14):
I think it will be upgraded to B772? By the end of the year AA will deploy on a daily 4 daily B772 in GRU plus one daily B767.

My mistake , AA and UA does not have 77W's ! I meant 772. (In fact AA runs 5 daily 772 flights: 3x MIA, 1x DFW and 1x JFK which places GRU as one of the three city's with more AA int'l 772 service)

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 14):
In the case of GIG I think seat increase will be over 400,000 as you also have to include CO new flights and GIG will get new frequencies to the US in 2009. Also, as more international flights are available in GIG, many pax will migrate out of GRU to GIG because GIG has better domestic connections to many key destinations eg VIX, CNF, BSB, among others.

Yes, agree with you ( i forgot CO upgrade to a dedicated service from IAH to both GIG and GRU 3x weekly) but i think the migration will be not so strong. There are cases like GYN where TAM created a "tailor-made" service for connections thru GIG with a late night GYN-GIG and morning service GIG-GYN, which is more comfortable (and faster) than the one thru GRU.
But there are several places to where GRU will continue to be the sole option, and the list is huge: AMS, CCS, BOG, MEX, LAX, DFW, ORD, MUC, FRA, ZRH, MXP, FCO, JNB, DXB...
So GRU will continue to attract far more connections.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 14):
Look for example the situation of concentration in other countries such as South Africa (JNB), Russia (Moscow airports), France (CDG), Germany (FRA), Mexico (MEX), Argentina (EZE), Chile (SCL), Peru (LIM), UK (London airports), Thailand (BKK), South Korea (ICN), Spain (MAD), etc.

Given the fact mostly countries are small (except for Mexico, Argentina and Russia), i would not use BKK, ICN, SCL, CDG/ORY as examples. And France in fact, offers a very good transport network with the TGV as well as you can reach Europe from places like Nantes, Nice and others.
I should say Argentina is basically the opposite of Brazil, 70% of country GDP in a single area, government + business + leisure. Also EZE is in the North and there's no Country to the South, which makes EZE as "the best hub"
Mexico is too linked to the US that even MEX is not well served to Europe as we both agreed. Again we have Government and Business into the same place, CUN become the largest leisure destination.
Russia is almost in the same situation as France, except they can't rely on a TGV system, and again, Moscow is the government, business center and leisure.
Spain i should say it's better split than Brazil between MAD, BCN and even Malaga and leisure destinations got good numbers and services to many places in Europe.
LIM is similar to Argentina, the capital is the business center and the leisure first stop market. I believe LIM is at least 50% of Peru's GDP.

In Brazil we have a situation only similar, IMO, to Canada and United States.

We have the government in one city (Rio has a good share also) : BSB
We have the main business center in other city: SAO
And we have the main leisure (also business market) in another one: RIO

US: IAD, JFK/ORD/LAX....... , MIA/MCO/LAS/SFO
Canada: Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal

But even in US, we have more flights to Asia from the West Coast, more flights to Europe from the East Coast, same from Canada... but Brazil....



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 17, posted (6 years 3 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 4025 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 16):
My mistake , AA and UA does not have 77W's ! I meant 772. (In fact AA runs 5 daily 772 flights: 3x MIA, 1x DFW and 1x JFK which places GRU as one of the three city's with more AA int'l 772 service)

Thanks for the precise info.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 16):
There are cases like GYN where TAM created a "tailor-made" service for connections thru GIG with a late night GYN-GIG and morning service GIG-GYN, which is more comfortable (and faster) than the one thru GRU.

We could expect more tailor made services like the GIG-GYN you mentioned with the development of TAM second hub in GIG. Also keep in perspective the restrictions in GRU.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 16):
Mexico is too linked to the US that even MEX is not well served to Europe as we both agreed. Again we have Government and Business into the same place, CUN become the largest leisure destination.
Russia is almost in the same situation as France, except they can't rely on a TGV system, and again, Moscow is the government, business center and leisure.
Spain i should say it's better split than Brazil between MAD, BCN and even Malaga and leisure destinations got good numbers and services to many places in Europe.
LIM is similar to Argentina, the capital is the business center and the leisure first stop market. I believe LIM is at least 50% of Peru's GDP.

Mexico: although you have flights to the US from many destinations because of proximity, if you look at long-haul flights in Mexico you will note they are concentrated in MEX;
Russia: would be a perfect comparison, as you have the competition Moscow x St Petersburg, but Moscow airports concentrate almost all flights;
Spain: BCN almost only gets short-haul flights to Europe, almost all long-haul services to US, Africa and Latin America are concentrated in MAD;
France/Germany/UK: ok, there is efficient train service, but I am talking about long-haul flights, and they are all concentrated in CDG, FRA and London airports.

Rgs,


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4069 posts, RR: 13
Reply 18, posted (6 years 3 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 4021 times:



Quoting Clo1973 (Reply 13):
On the other hand, International traffic of CLO and MDE (YTD July) was 0.3 and 0.34 million pax respectively, so these two airports would be No. 4 and 3 in Brazil.

International traffic at CLO and MDE is mostly to the US, and it is a result of decades of Colombian emigration. Brazilian emigration is a more recent phenomenon, so the number of relatives traveling between Brazil and the US to visit is relatively smaller.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 16):
In Brazil we have a situation only similar, IMO, to Canada and United States.

Canada.. yes, but the US is a much more decentralized and larger economy. No other country has domestic air travel to support the massive multiple hubs that exist in the US or some 30+ airports with longhaul service.



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User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3736 posts, RR: 19
Reply 19, posted (6 years 3 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3998 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 17):

We could expect more tailor made services like the GIG-GYN you mentioned with the development of TAM second hub in GIG. Also keep in perspective the restrictions in GRU.

Not only the GRU restrictions are a problem. TAM carries most connecting passengers to international flights, being also in service for other carriers through interline agreements. That creates a large demand for domestic inbound flights in the evening and for outbound in the morning, but there is only so much supply that the O&D market can absorb in order to fill the empty seats. If they increase the supply too much, flights can leave fully loaded, but arrive with light loads in the morning. In the evening, it's the opposite. The hub activity is almost always one way. That's why domestic traffic at GRU is hostage of international and domestic O&D demand and will stay like that until domestic O&D traffic dwarfes the international traffic, but that will still take some time to happen. That's the main reason TAM is looking for alternatives. The international scheduling in South America has a direct effect on TAM's decision making and they can't change it.


User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4615 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (6 years 3 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 3960 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Thread starter):
Top 20 Airports January-July 2008 (total year-on-year % growth )

1. Confins-CNF: 25,2%

It's interesting to realize how the growth at CNF is essentially based on their domestic operations, besides TP LIS-CNF.
However, CNF will contribute even more in the second half of the year related to the international traffic due to the opening of CM PTY-CNF 5x weekly in August.
Both DL and AA have already submitted their applications into ATL-CNF 4x weekly and MIA-CNF 4x weekly, respectively.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 21, posted (6 years 3 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 3905 times:



Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 20):
It's interesting to realize how the growth at CNF is essentially based on their domestic operations, besides TP LIS-CNF.

The growth in CNF is by and large driven by domestic traffic. You have to note that CNF got major synergies and became again a major hub after the relocation of flights from the centrally located PLU airport to CNF.

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 20):
However, CNF will contribute even more in the second half of the year related to the international traffic due to the opening of CM PTY-CNF 5x weekly in August.
Both DL and AA have already submitted their applications into ATL-CNF 4x weekly and MIA-CNF 4x weekly, respectively.

The additional international flights in CNF (TAP, AA, DL) will have almost negligeble impact in total traffic. CNF has on average 420,000 pax month and the new flights of TAP, AA and DL combined will only increase seat supply of about 11,000 per month which is less than 3% of the total traffic of CNF.

TAM and GOL alone are increasing seat supply in CNF of about 80,000 new seats per month on average which is already far more than all new international traffic.

Rgs,


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11459 posts, RR: 58
Reply 22, posted (6 years 3 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 3894 times:
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Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 20):
Both DL and AA have already submitted their applications into ATL-CNF 4x weekly and MIA-CNF 4x weekly, respectively.

DL has changed ATL-CNF in favor of ATL-REC-FOR. AA MIA-CNF has been authorized 3x weekly and AA is fighting for another frequency.

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 20):
It's interesting to realize how the growth at CNF is essentially based on their domestic operations, besides TP LIS-CNF.

Yes, but may grow a little more. CNF lacks services to EZE for example and it's the largest VFR market to the United States.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 23, posted (6 years 3 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 3879 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 22):
DL has changed ATL-CNF in favor of ATL-REC-FOR. AA MIA-CNF has been authorized 3x weekly and AA is fighting for another frequency.

Indeed, you are right. It is worth mentioning that AA will deploy the B767 in a premium schedule in CNF operating the flight red-eye both legs.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 22):
Yes, but may grow a little more. CNF lacks services to EZE for example and it's the largest VFR market to the United States.

EZE has the problems regarding the bilateral. A new bilateral with Argentina is needed.

rgs,


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4069 posts, RR: 13
Reply 24, posted (6 years 3 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 3879 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 21):
CNF has on average 420,000 pax month and the new flights of TAP, AA and DL combined will only increase seat supply of about 11,000 per month which is less than 3% of the total traffic of CNF.

Notice that seat departures need to be multiplied by two to compare to traffic because traffic counts departing and arriving (and connecting) passengers. Counting seat supply per month on less than daily flights results in more than one answer because the number of flights per month will vary. I am going to offer the average calculation, which always gives the wrong answer but gives the answer closest to the right ones. TAP flies 5 x week, so it is .714 flights per day. The average month has 30.44 days. So the total seats TAP offers at CNF will be .714 times 30.44 times 230 seats times 2 (arrival and departure). Total 10,001. American will offer .43 flights per day, totalling 5870 seats per month. Copa offers 5392. I am ignoring seasonal variations, like American will offer CNF-MIA 4x week over the peak season. Total TP/AA/CM is 21,263. One would hope these flights capture 12 to 15 thousand passengers per month, or 150 to 200k passengers per year.



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25 Hardiwv : You are completely right, my quick calculation was 11,000. 12,000-15,000 pax per month is more accurate and will make less than 5% of CNF monthly tra
26 Incitatus : I forgot to add that many of those 12-15k passengers per month are already flying through GRU/GIG, so the actual impact of new seats is smaller than
27 LipeGIG : Incitatus, just to clarify, i made my calculation based on the two sides. 4,400 AA seats means 10 weekly flights (since i'm only counting with 7 REC/
28 Clo1973 : To give you precise numbers, traffic to US is 50% of total int´l traffic out of CLO and MDE. On the other hand what you say about inmigration is tru
29 LipeGIG : Lets say: GRU is 66% GIG is 17% and the others, another 17% stake. So, Rio only takes care of part of it's demand (of course there's only service fro
30 Hardiwv : AF-KL CEO in Brazil in a recent video interview was very clear that Northeast Brazil currently does not sustain a flight to Europe, apart from the TA
31 LipeGIG : Hardi, we can't have such numbers. I know many people that travel to DXB, JNB thru GRU, and CDG thru GIG, just using examples, that arrange meetings
32 Hardiwv : AF/KL knows exactly where their pax comes from and how many connect in GRU and GIG. As AF/KL CEO in Brazil said pax outside Sao Paulo and Rio de Jane
33 LipeGIG : I disagree. And if the route has more people that book from the other "side" ? As far as i know we have passengers from Brazil and abroad and prefix
34 Hardiwv : I said pre-fix of phone numbers is just an example, I actually used an "extreme" and very rudimentary example. If you think Airlines have no idea of
35 C010T3 : I'm sorry, but that's a real problem in Brazil. People buying separate tickets is very common, unlike in other countries. We have the JJ-LH partnersh
36 Incitatus : Felipe please calm down. This is not something out of the ordinary. Look at some American states that have GDP larger than the south of Brazil and la
37 LipeGIG : Sorry Hardi, i'm just trying to talk about the fact that the rest of Brazil has more than 30% of the entire demand (including C). You and i are the b
38 Neo : This is a joke right!?!?!? 30%?? Who does she wants to fool with this statement... please it's obvious AF/KL do not have the correct figures. This wo
39 LipeGIG : I'm calm Incitatus, but accept my apologise if it seems to be rude. Your point is good, but we both know that the South shows very impressive Corpora
40 Hardiwv : No problem, Lipe. No offence. I am saying that I agree with KL/AF CEO in Brazil. I believe Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro city make 70% of AF market in
41 LipeGIG : Sometimes we disagree. No one is saying she is. I'm talking about other aspect, not her competence. I'm not using GDP to estimate demand, i'm showing
42 Incitatus : Thanks, yes indeed, I thought BA had left but no, they still operate there. I was afraid my list was nearly right anyway. And some of the areas I men
43 LipeGIG : Yes, but again Incitatus, we have our weak states also and they probably would never see regular long-haul services. Agree in part with you. But unde
44 Hardiwv : I by and large agree with you. However, I disagree about natural resources. Agribusiness and natural resources in Brazil generate quite a lot of inte
45 LipeGIG : Hardi, i wouldn't dispute this opinion. I just let to add the following: airlines wouldn't fly to the South just because of the way we manage connect
46 Hardiwv : The problem is that these airports of the South are easily connected with GRU/GIG without detour. But I see a case here, AA in the past operated in P
47 LipeGIG : POA and CWB can be a good option for a flight from EZE going to Europe or US, but as you remind very well, need to solve the runway issue. Concerning
48 2travel2know : I'm surprised that there aren't even weekend POA/CWB SSA/REC/FOR non-stop flights. I think POA-CNF is a route that could well work non-stop morning a
49 SJOtoLIR : CM PTY-MVD is being operated with Boeing 737-700 Next Generation [73G]. The route is farther than both PTY-CWB and PTY-POA. . G3 MVD-POA-GRU is avail
50 LipeGIG : Such seven routes are the biggest gap in Brazil in terms of domestic services. And the success of CNF-CWB (now 3x daily) just confirm that there's ma
51 2travel2know : Any CWB-PTY B737-700 restriction will have to do with CWB runway lengh.
52 Hardiwv : I think CM could try PTY-MVD-POA-PTY in a triangular way. This would be an interesting market. As mentioned, foreign airlines have overlooked the Sou
53 Post contains links Neo : Coming back to the topic subject.. Infraero has just release the traffic numbers for August. http://www.infraero.gov.br/upload/arquivos/movi/mov.opera
54 Incitatus : CNF-REC is at least as large as all of these (and shorter) and it seems TAM canned it. One healthy market GOL and TAM are not serving is CPQ-POA, whi
55 Post contains links Hardiwv : But in general there is lack for more connections linking South and Northeast/North Brazil such as POA-MAO. CPQ is certainly underserved but INFRAERO
56 LipeGIG : The problem with CPQ is that it couldn't compete against CGH and GRU, and also wouldn't attract people from Paraiba Valey, or places like RAO with ow
57 Incitatus : There are a lot of cities in the catchment area of Viracopos, from Sorocaba to Atibaia, and from Jundiai all the way up to Sao Carlos. Vale do Paraib
58 LipeGIG : The problem Incitatus is that they can fly non-stop thru VCP to just a few markets: GIG, BSB, CNF, CWB and a single service to FLN. Also, there's no
59 Incitatus : CPQ-POA is served with a stop in CWB by both JJ and G3. I can see depending on departure time preference passengers will drive to Sao Paulo, but the
60 LipeGIG : Yes, but i'm not talking only about POA. I'm talking about MIA, EZE, SSA, MAO, BEL, MEX, CDG, LIS... Yes, but the fares CPQ-GIG were always highest c
61 Neo : I disagree, I don't think CPQ needs international flights to delvelop into a bigger airport. As Incitatus mentioned, the even with the one-stop route
62 C010T3 : The federal government seems to think so.
63 LipeGIG : Yes, but you're supousing that people are closer to VCP. For a person at Jundiai, VCP is closer, but CGH is just a little more distant and offer far
64 Incitatus : The distance between Jundiai and CGH/VCP is similar only on a map. The Sao Paulo metro area is a warp in the time-space continuum where even the ligh
65 LipeGIG : I agree with you, but seems that many people don't agree.
66 Post contains links Hardiwv : Just to add to the above topic, in a recently released report by ANAC, the agency provides the ranking of the 10 top yielding routes in the Brazilian
67 C010T3 : The presence of GIG-GRU in that list makes me very suspicious.
68 LipeGIG : Considering ANAC won't give us any info regarding the time frame of their sample, it's difficult to say something. But in fact we can say that ALL ro
69 2travel2know : Morning as in between 0600 and 1100am or even earlier (like in between 0300 and 0500)? On another topic - this time really related to Brazilan air-tr
70 LipeGIG : Morning as from 0600 to 1100 AM local time. No info was given on Brazilian Press. I tried to get info thru CNF friends but due to the departure time,
71 Neo : Well federal government doesn't even't know what Hum.. sorry but I don't consider ANAC's report to be thrustworthy....God knows when it was done. and
72 LipeGIG : The calculation isn't bad, but in fact they do not give a clear indication, and the average yield in the US for example is closer to US$ 0,13 (while
73 Hardiwv : As mentioned, many foreigners buy GIG-GRU leg, if you buy this leg in Europe the fares comes very high (EUR300 and above). Also many pax buy separate
74 Lobster : I agree with you that domestic fares are high in Brazil, but the difference in average yield has more something to do with the average stagelength be
75 LipeGIG : Good point and i agree with you. There's no way to compare profitability of the route (Bauru with both CGH-BSB and GIG-BSB with 20+ frequencies a day
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