Beaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 23 Posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3873 times:
any qualified guesses as of when and what LH will impose on changes to SN's sheduled flights and network?
I know it's early after the announcement period,but usually sheduled changes are implemented 6 months ahead-so are any a.netters aware of changes in equipments,new airports served or first code-shares ?
BrightCedars From Belgium, joined Nov 2004, 1291 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 3656 times:
My guess is that they will now be preparing things behind the scenes to start with the Northern Summer airline season starting March 29, 2009 if I'm not mistaken.
They were saying that they will work to clear the deal and the approvals by the end of the year so I guess 4 months will do to implement the changes on both sides.
I expect to see code-share and rearrangement on all German and Swiss routes and the appearance of connections via FRA, MUC and ZRH in the schedule. I'm not sure what will happen with OS and VIE as the carrier is currently in the process of being privatized for good and it's too early to call the happy new owner.
In parallel, I'd expect some existing code-share to cease or to be announced as ceasing by the Northern Winter airline season (I guess starting October 25, 2009) and some new ones to be announced as starting then, I would also expect joining the Star Alliance by that time at the latest.
Code-share with UA seems a given, but we'll have to see what happen to the NYC route. Code-share with CO could support that, or maybe we'd have the symbolic return of an OO jet over the Atlantic flying BRU-JFK, alongside the CO EWR-BRU service. Both in code-share with CO, UA and perhaps US. It remains to be seen what happens to US's PHL service, a codeshare would nice as well. Also, maybe SN and UA will deem ORD (as a replacement to SN's current AA partnership) is deemed more beneficial than IAD, or even better both would be operated.
A euphoric Trans-Atlantic offer would be:
2 x Daily New York as:
- as 1 x Daily BRU-EWR by CO 764/772 + 1 x Daily BRU-JFK by SN 332/333
- or 2 x Daily BRU-EWR by CO 762/764/772
- or 2 x Daily BRU-EWR 1 by CO 762/764/772 & 1 by SN 332/333
- UA might also be part of the hardware equation, do they still have a base at JFK?
1 x Daily BRU-IAD by UA 763
1 x Daily BRU-ORD by UA 763
1 x Daily BRU-PHL by US 762
Technically with open skies it is also possible that LH (or even LX) fly the route with their own equipment and code-share with SN and others. All flights would eventually bear the codes of CO, LH, UA, SN & US.
Maybe YUL (and YYZ?) would be added to the network in code-share with AC giving it access to the African and European networks.
In Europe, we all know who the Star Alliance potential partners are, and I'd expect most of them to start cooperating with SN (BD, JP?, LO, OS, OU, SK (KF?), AP Air Portugal">TP). I'm just wondering if MS and TK would also code-share with SN relatively soon. I'm also wondering about other LH affiliates like A3, AP, EN and JK.
In Africa I'd expect one further long-haul aircraft to join the fleet already to increase frequency and destinations there, maybe in conjunction with some reductions at FRA and ZRH.
In Asia, it's the most difficult guess. BKK and NRT are on the wish list but BKK is low-yield although with Star Alliance it could serve as the hub to SE Asia. At NRT the problem is mainly one of slots, yield should be manageable given the alliance dynamics there and the strong local partner NH. HKG seems to be on the wish list of BRU passengers at reasonable yields but not having any Star Alliance partner there I can't see it being a priority, look for transit at FRA, MUC (do LH do HKG there?) and ZRH.
Also you should expect Privilege to fade away to the benefit of Miles&More with the good and the bad that this brings.
SwissA330 From Switzerland, joined Mar 2002, 614 posts, RR: 14
Reply 2, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 3629 times:
Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 1): Also you should expect Privilege to fade away to the benefit of Miles&More with the good and the bad that this brings.
Please tell me about the good that it might bring
Service levels and offers are way below former Qualiflyer and then LX Travelclub/SN Privilege/TP Navigator Levels. I was gold at QG and STC but since M&M i decided to collect my miles on TP's Victoria, which is still much better in terms of rewards (less choice though.. but you can always trade them in at other *A Airlines...).
MEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4540 posts, RR: 32
Reply 3, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 3475 times:
Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 1): My guess is that they will now be preparing things behind the scenes to start with the Northern Summer airline season starting March 29, 2009 if I'm not mistaken.
I admire your optimism, and of course we have seen that the Lufthansa link brought Swiss a boost. But I expect that SN will remain more a niche carrier, probably they strengthen their Africa routes further with maybe another 2-5 A-330s and connect the dots to Star Alliance hubs, but they won't burn their fingers on the USA, Latin America or Asia again but just feed the LH, TP and LX flights to that direction.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
BrightCedars From Belgium, joined Nov 2004, 1291 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 3462 times:
Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 3): I admire your optimism, and of course we have seen that the Lufthansa link brought Swiss a boost. But I expect that SN will remain more a niche carrier, probably they strengthen their Africa routes further with maybe another 2-5 A-330s and connect the dots to Star Alliance hubs, but they won't burn their fingers on the USA, Latin America or Asia again but just feed the LH, TP and LX flights to that direction.
Come on! My most optimistic (euphoric) thought is that SN would operate NYC on its own metal in order to offer its flagship service on the key US destination out of BRU and eventually connect Canada to its African network, which I do estimate is even less plausible in the near term.
I didn't say they would fly to Asia on their own but gave hints as to what might come first one day or another (albeit not near future, defnitely not less than a year, possibly three if at all) and didn't even mention Latin America as clearly there is no market there for Brussels and connecting via LIS, OPO and FRA will be the options of choice. A dream would be a BRU-DKR-GRU kind of route but that's just what I call it in the first place: a dream.
I feel I am very cautiously optimistic, and anything below what I wrote would most probably become a pessimistic scenario.
Beaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 23
Reply 5, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 3340 times:
The Nuremberg aviation forum ( http://17652.rapidforum.com/ ) tells-well it's small- that LH does change the daily ATR 42 into an ATR 72 to BRU.
That clearly indicates they will funnel more transfer passengers from Germany into and through BRU.