Sirtoby From Germany, joined Nov 2007, 286 posts, RR: 22 Reply 2, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 19515 times:
I don't think they really can deliver in August 2009. August 2009 is 11 months away and we did not see 1st flight yet.
And the longer the strike lasts, the more unlikely we will see 1st flight this year. So how long will flight testing last?
I think Boeing will hardly make it to deliver any 787 in 2009...
Dalavia From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 398 posts, RR: 1 Reply 4, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 19280 times:
Sorry, I simply don't believe the 787 will be in commercial service a year from now.
Flight flight is yet to happen, there's a strike on (a big one), other technical and weight issues not yet resolved (or even discovered yet - that's an inevitable part of testing).
It would be GREAT to see the first 787 delivered to ANA in August 2009, but it has to be a real plane that flies - not like the roll-out fiasco on 7-8-07.
So... roll-out to first flight takes 15 months, then 9 months to first delivery? And all this is with a new multinational multi-sub-contractor just-in-time delivery system, bleedless engines, and carbon fibre technology???
Swallow From Uganda, joined Jul 2007, 545 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 19237 times:
Unless Harry Houdini has ressurected, I don't see how they can pull this off.
Dreamliner 1 assembly has slipped by 8 weeks, pushing first flight to the right. The engines have been taken off ZA001 according to Flightblogger. Realistically, this flight will now be in the first quarter of 2009.
Mr Tinseth said yesterday that Boeing had built in a margin in both the production and flight test schedules but conceded some of that had already been eaten away.
He refused to speculate on a new schedule.
"All I can tell you is that as soon as the strike is over we have our flight test outlined, we have that program worked out and approved by the US Federal Aviation Authority and we're going to have to look at it and see how we can make it work," he said
Translation, 'we don't know when the program will resume'. I would take any prediction of firm delivery dates with a pinch of salt.
Par13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 5918 posts, RR: 8 Reply 6, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 19193 times:
Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1): This would point to renewed effort to revamp the 777. They have no other option.
Question, is it that they do not want to ramp up production of the B-787, why not put the efforts to revamp the B-777 into the B-787 to reduce the backlog rather than increase it over the production run.
The initial delay at Boeing and or some of it contractors should have allowed other sub-contractors to continue production, however, I think we run into the just in time production method. Out-sourcing means that Boeing is not responsible for stocking production items which they do not want delivered at a point in time due to the initial delay, the contractor never built his facilities to maintain stock, that would be more investment and reduce the cost savings offered via the out-sourcing contract, so they don't build, resulting in their suppliers not supplying them and so on down the chain. Is this not a reversible position where once Boeing is ready to accept parts and increase production the suppliers can now ramp up as well, especially since we are talking two to three years down the road, can it really take that long or is this really a "political" delay and not a purely technical one?
This is a simple off the cuff remark. Obviously there are more facts then just the delivery time line. As it is now the 787 is going to be in high demand and will be flying before the A350XWB is in production. I think these kind of statements are uninformed guessing and don't add any thing to the thread.
Moo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 3614 posts, RR: 4 Reply 16, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 17659 times:
Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 11):
The strike is not affecting those operations, flight testing is continuing on schedule.
Well, considering the first 787 was not completed prior to the IAM strike, I think that the strike is very much affecting the flight testing. The aircraft is not going to get into the air prior to the end of the strike, so I don't know where you are coming from...
Quoting Brilondon (Reply 15): This is a simple off the cuff remark. Obviously there are more facts then just the delivery time line. As it is now the 787 is going to be in high demand and will be flying before the A350XWB is in production. I think these kind of statements are uninformed guessing and don't add any thing to the thread.
Say you. But in recent Flightglobal article about Qantas, CEO Dixon declared that if Boeing would drop the 787-10 they will go to Airbus. First A350 delivery is in 2013 and ramp up to 17 A350XWB in 2017. Thats not a uninformed guessing unlike your post, even if Boeing doesn''t oficially cancel the 787-10 the chances are very high it won't be ready for a long time.
Quote: Unless Boeing accedes to demands for a 787-10, Qantas is likely to place an order for the A350, with Dixon saying that it talks with Airbus on the twinjet are under way.
Aerodog From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 112 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 17318 times:
On a related note, the Dreamlifter flew over my house near Wichita I believe last Thursday as it was setting up for an approach to McConnell AFB where Spirit is located. Happened to catch sight of the same A/C headed Northwest the following morning.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26956 posts, RR: 83 Reply 20, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 16906 times:
The local pundits not withstanding, I don't see why Boeing would agree to a delivery timetable they know they have no chance of making.
For that matter, I don't see why they would agree to a delivery timetable they expect they could meet only if a lot of things go perfectly.
They may yet end up wrong (god knows they've blown every one to date), but hey, even Airbus finally picked an A380-800 delivery date they ended up being able to meet.
While little to no production work is happening on any 787, that does not mean Boeing is just sitting on their hands. All those parts that have been constrained (fasteners, etc.) are being received, allocated to frames and stock-piled. Engineers are no doubt continuing to run the numbers to see where they can improve the plane. Managers are no doubt reviewing production plans to see where they can streamline the process when the workers come back. The suppliers are moving their sub-assembles to 100% completion, which means no travel work at Boeing for follow-on planes.
The real key is flight test. Eventually, Boeing is going to have to blink and give the unions a contract they will accept to ensure that all six test planes can be completed in time to get the test program completed (including whatever time they have put in for issues).
Airbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 6953 posts, RR: 7 Reply 24, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 16275 times:
Quoting Moo (Reply 18): In the context given, the A350-1000 XWB will certainly be flying prior to the 787-10.
This is assuming that there won't be a significant delay in the XWB program. Given recent significant delays from both A and B, the fact that the A350XWB is still just a paper airplane, and that there's still no engine for the A350-1000, this would be a very big assumption, to say the least.
25 AirNZ: Yes, it might well be an off the cuff remark, but so is your post. "As it is now....." is actually that the 787 might be flying before the A350! One
26 Art: "Japan's All Nippon Airways said Thursday it agreed with Boeing Co. the delayed 787 jet will be delivered August next year, more than a year behind sc
27 Moo: There would have to be a 2 year delay at current 787 production rates and backlog - the -1000 is available in 2015, the 787 backlog extends to 2017 c
28 Cloudyapple: The A350XWB schedule is probably the most generous with lots of built in slack in case things don't go according to plan. It was scheduled to be 8 ye
29 Moo: Not quite 8 years - the A350XWB announcement came in July 2006, with first delivery currently planned for mid-2013, so more like 7 years. That is sti
30 WingedMigrator: This is nothing new and was already expected in April 2008. Here is how the 787 schedule evolved through April (estimated dates in blue) Since April,
31 Rampart: No, hadn't you heard? Just as there were "night bombers" in WWII, the 787-3 was developed specifically for red-eye flights and overnight small packag
32 330lover: Well, where are the airbus basher who were/are laughing when Airbus announced delays in their 380 production. You see, one is not bether than the othe
33 Burnsie28: You mean the same aircraft that they have been doing testing on now, and that boeing said it won't prevent flight testing?
34 Moo: The airframe they are doing testing on now (or supposed to be, its been delayed slightly due to issues with data acquisition) is the static test airf
35 Vfw614: They better not press Boeing on that date - unless they are willing to accept an airplane patched together with stuff from Home Depot again What was
36 Baroque: Here is one looking forward to the Mark VI (estimate only) of your excellent chart. The phrase "if at first you don't succeed ....." comes to mind lo
37 DocLightning: I used to be a B cheerleader. I like to think I've matured beyond such a point. I just took a train past Getafe the other day. The doors on the A pla
38 A342: in this context, it is interesting to compare the A380 to the 787. Airbus brought the A380 in the air more or less on time. IIRC, the schedule called
39 WingedMigrator: Power on testing was conducted from June 11-20, 2008. At the time of my last chart update in April of 2008, it had not yet occurred. It took place a
40 Airbazar: How quickly we forget. The A340 took 6 years from launch to first delivery and it was seriously handicaped by an engine that couldn't be delivered on
41 Moo: Nothing to forget - the design freeze for the A350-900 is scheduled to happen end of October, beginning of November, which gives Airbus 4 full years
42 Prebennorholm: It means that ANA and Boeing have agreed on compensation for a revised (delayed and slightly slowed down) delivery schedule beginning 08/09 instead o
43 Stitch: Not into the air for first flight, no. But I believe that if Boeing can deliver ZA007 to NH in August 2009, it will be closer to plan then the delive
44 Petera380: Even if the strike ended today, I find it hard to believe that there is enough time between now and August 09 to complete flight testing/certification
45 Rheinbote: Wouldn't you think the results are premature before actual ground test and flight loads data is available? Do they actually believe they'll get one i
46 Frigatebird: 17 a month in 2017? Or 17 in the whole year 2017?? Either figure doesn't seem likely to me, to be honest. Well, since they haven't officially launche
47 Khobar: You are accusing Boeing of outright criminal activity.
48 Art: Gotcha. I suppose it is cheaper for Boeing to promise the earliest conceivable delivery date just in case it proves achievable rather than to agree a
49 Frigatebird: The A350-900, yes, it should be on time. Seems Airbus has learned from the A380 and 787 Snafu's. The -800: as a 'simple' shrink, it can be on time. A
50 Stitch: Flight-test data is not the only data they have to work with. And they can continue to look at the FEMs and such. They also likely know what parts ar
51 RIX: - why, the roll-out was a success ... - (or light of the day, whatever ...) - was it canceled or just "postponed indefinitely"? - they never launched
52 Moo: Lets go through this again, shall we? 787-10 - not even defined yet, not looking likely to be defined yet, Boeings backlog well into 2017 at the curr
53 Moo: Actually, neither - Boeing seems to have conveniently let the 787-3 slip its mind for the time being, as in the last reshuffle the 787-9 was moved up
54 JoeCanuck: I'm not impressed with the commitment to be on time from Airbus or Boeing. All the quibbling about which one is worse proves is that they both suck at
55 VHECA: to Joe! Enough of the bickering, peoples. Airbus screwed up with A380 scheduling, Boeing is experiencing it with the 787, and people are pumping up p
56 ER757: I'd love to be proven wrong, but in a word, no. Even without the strike, they'd have been hard pressed to get enough birds in the air to complete all
57 AirNZ: Oh my, did I touch a nerve or something with someone who doesn't want to face reality? I am 'accusing' them of no such thing, but stating facts which
58 EbbUK: Funny how we hear nothing about accountability at Boeing for this commercial disaster in scheduling and hitting EIS targets. Who is responsible for al
59 Baroque: Thanks for that. I had worked out that there were more versions of power on than I had wot of, and I am using the "WM standard" as my benchmark!! Hen
60 Stitch: Bair took the initial blame, and he's been effectively sacked for it. He'll never advance from his current position and will likely be...encouraged..
61 Khobar: In reply 20, Stitch said, "I don't see why Boeing would agree to a delivery timetable they know they have no chance of making. " You replied, "But th
62 HapppyLandings: Sure there sparky... Compensation will be given.... Airlines will wait for it. People here are forgetting that Boeing is not a fault for the delays,
63 Art: Supposing there were 40 sequential processes involved in getting the first aircraft ready for delivery and experience showed that each process could
64 RIX: 78A may be defined in a year, and it won't need miracle to fly with passengers well before 2017 or even 2014 - at least, by customers switching to it
65 Astuteman: Presumably because the development timeframe for the A350 has been set even longer than both the A380 and 787 either took, or are going to take......
66 Tdscanuck: The original public schedule had flight test in something like 7 months, so at one time they thought this would be possible. I believe they extended
67 Astuteman: The order intake might be about to dry up, but not necessarily because of delays.. And IMO, an order slowdown now is perfectly timed for planes like
68 Moo: People have been saying that for two years now, and that was before the current troubles. Don't expect to see the 787-10 defined to a significant deg
69 Dynamicsguy: To continue production when your customer is not in a position to accept (and pay for) what you're producing makes absolutely no business sense. You
70 Swallow: And that is assuming all six test aircraft are complete and ready to fly. A380 static testing began around June 04 with first flight in April 05. Wit
71 R2rho: Has Boeing learned nothing??? It would seem that the marketing guys are still setting the pace with complete disregard to engineering timeframes and p
72 Stitch: Could you do me a favor and PM Boeing's actual delivery date for me? Actually, the entire 787 GANTT chart through the 2020's would be great. I made a
73 PM: I hope you are right (not least because I live in Japan and hope to be among the first to fly on a 787) but I fear they are setting themselves up for
74 Ikramerica: Which plane was that? Not the 787. And where are you getting your information that this is from marketing guys? This is from the money guys, negotiat
75 Stitch: Well I certainly don't believe they just pulled a random date out of a hat or tossed a dart at a calendar and said "That's the day ZA007 goes to NH"
76 Ikramerica: Yeah, I'm pretty disappointed in Boeing myself, but it would be even more ridiculous if at this state, it was the marketing people telling airlines w
77 Zippyjet: My birthday is August 19th. What a nice little birthday present if Boeing could make my birthday August 19 delivery day.
78 WingedMigrator: Jon Ostrower had this interesting observation posted on Flightblogger:
79 Ikramerica: Well one assumes there would be a delay due to the strike if nothing else. But is August 2009 the delayed date or the pre-delay date?