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IATA Predicts One Indian Carrier May Go Bust  
User currently offlineSPR773 From India, joined Jun 2008, 160 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 3324 times:

IATA predicts that one of the Indian carriers will fall to the recent financial turmoil...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...lapse_IATA/articleshow/3538079.cms

I wonder which one it would be....I would think that it would be AI (if the government doesn't bail it out)...since I remember the Indian Aviation Minister saying that AI has to perform or perish. Now being a "Govt. of India" enterprise it would be a big news they did perform although the government did buy them lots of new Boeings....but it seems it won't help. Lack of will and a messy merger has bogged them down....
Jet and KF will survive as they are private sector players and would eat up some other airline as they are owned by deep-pocketed people...

Any thoughts ? The article also mentions that IATA has predicted lots of other international airlines do also perish .... Any guesses ?

14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineSevenforeseven From France, joined Nov 2005, 164 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 3221 times:

Hope its Air India. Run by useless people just too bothered about filling thier pockets and nothing else. I just hope Kingfisher flourishes, as its a well run airline with well mannered empoyees who care about the airline. I will ALWAYS use Kingfisher.

User currently offlineOHLHD From Finland, joined Dec 2004, 3962 posts, RR: 25
Reply 2, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 3179 times:

Who ever it is, they can wait until November as I am going on holidays there in October. Big grin

Why are the fuel prices so much higher compared to other regions? Taxes?  Smile


User currently offlineNimish From India, joined Feb 2005, 3233 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 3113 times:

Of all the airlines mentioned, AI will be the last one to collapse, due to the "social obligation" that the Govt of India feels to keep this carrier afloat. AI has already asked for a massive funds infusion, which is something that the Govt will almost certainly dole out.

This is hopefully just to provide ammunition to the "civil aviation" minister, so he can force the "finance" minister to push down the taxes on fuel. Plus the "civil aviation" minister can arm twist different state govts to bring down their tax levels as well. Both of these have been things that have been tried for a while, but have not succeeded (yet). Right now the costs of operating an airline in India are far higher (due to obscene taxation) than most other parts of the world.



Latest Trip Report - GoAir BLR-BOM-BLR
User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31684 posts, RR: 56
Reply 4, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2774 times:



Quoting OHLHD (Reply 2):

Who ever it is, they can wait until November as I am going on holidays there in October

Where in India?
If any airline has to close shop this year,it would be GoAir or Paramount in my opinion.Considering the current senario.

 Smile

regds
MEL...



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineSPR773 From India, joined Jun 2008, 160 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 2441 times:



Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 4):

MEL,
It could be GoAir ... Paramount was thinking of expanding so its probably not them


User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31684 posts, RR: 56
Reply 6, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2370 times:



Quoting SPR773 (Reply 5):
It could be GoAir ... Paramount was thinking of expanding so its probably not them

Probably....I was talking in terms of financial current position  Smile
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineLHR777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2304 times:

Someone had mentioned Kingfisher on another thread, I guess because they cancelled orders and laid-off 300 employees. However, would Dr Mallya really let that happen?

User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31684 posts, RR: 56
Reply 8, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2200 times:



Quoting LHR777 (Reply 7):

Someone had mentioned Kingfisher on another thread, I guess because they cancelled orders and laid-off 300 employees. However, would Dr Mallya really let that happen?

Very unlikely at present.IT has got better finances than Goair or Paramount.They are hoping on the future to bring them profits as the earlier yrs were of massive investments.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineSQ_EK_freak From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2000, 1633 posts, RR: 20
Reply 9, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 2073 times:

Seeing as though GoAir isn't doing so well as of now, wow do Spicejet and IndiGo place on this new slew of LCCs entering the Indian market? Might there be more airline consolidations in the near future, a la Jet and Sahara into JetLite and Kingfisher and Deccan? I'd imagine market saturation is imminent if not already present.


Keep Discovering
User currently offlineMillwallSean From Singapore, joined Apr 2008, 1244 posts, RR: 6
Reply 10, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1981 times:

My guess for the airline with the bleakest future in India is Spicejet.

This is based upon Spicejet sending out offers asking to be bought out, for this they appointed Rothschild.
They are sending this to everyone and according to financial gossip Kingfisher and Jet airways are most interested. Kingfisher has a different fleet and would in the case of a take over have to fase out the Boeings that Spicejet fleet consists of. Normally this is seen as a problem, but with Kingfisher already having plenty of surplus orders from Airbus, after their Deccan purchase, this can be achieved in the coming two years so it wont pose such a problem as one would assume.
Bhupendra Kansagra one of the most prominent shareholders of Spicejet has said that he is ready to sell his shares but the other three major owners have not taken up the offer to buy.

Spicejet itself is not doing good, they have constantly produced losses and have found it difficult to compete.
I dont see Spicejet in its present form being around this time 2009.
If the airline will be bought out or if it will be involved as a minor partner in a merger is a different question though.

Jet airways is loosing money, loosing alot more than what their predictions were. Their credit-rating has taken a hit. This leads to higher costs, higher interest rates and a worsening liquidity situation for them.
I dont see them going out of business but they are loosing money just like all the other players in the Indian market at the moment.

Kingfisher has deferred orders but after their acquisition of Deccan they had too many planes on order. They are loosing money but have the financial stability and the brand to keep them flying. Their owner isnt short of cash either so I dont see them going out of business.

Air India will be the last one standing in India. no way that the government will allow them to go bankrupt.

GoJet, Indigo and Paramount is not airlines that I have dealt with so I do not know anything about their situation or owners. In India its important to see who is behind what and not just what the financial situation is.



No One Likes Us - We Dont Care.
User currently offlineAF022 From France, joined Dec 2003, 2161 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 1910 times:

So far this thread is based on the assumption that IATA knows what it is talking about. This is a leap of faith.

User currently offlineBehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4784 posts, RR: 43
Reply 12, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 1888 times:



Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 10):
My guess for the airline with the bleakest future in India is Spicejet.

I also agree with you that if a bet has to be placed on which major Indian carrier may not last for another 6 months, SPICE JET is what I would too put my money on !


User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31684 posts, RR: 56
Reply 13, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1863 times:



Quoting SQ_EK_freak (Reply 9):
Seeing as though GoAir isn't doing so well as of now,

GoAir problem is that their Mgmt is not keen on running an airline & wants to quit the field.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 10):
Air India will be the last one standing in India. no way that the government will allow them to go bankrupt.

Currently only Blue Dart is making profits....Cargo does rule  Smile Hopefully other Airlines esp pax carriers come into profits soon too.

Quoting AF022 (Reply 11):

So far this thread is based on the assumption that IATA knows what it is talking about. This is a leap of faith.

Thats a good point too.

regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineLeftWing From Singapore, joined Mar 2006, 284 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1853 times:

AI will never go down.....the ministers get free flts for themself and family and free upgrade to first class....if AI folds then these guys will have fly on Jet, Kingfisher and PAY FOR THE FLT...

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