Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 7513 posts, RR: 18 Posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7282 times:
Good evening folks; as we've gone over 250 in the last thread, I thought I might move on to No. 36/08.
For those (probably quite a few!) confused by the thread opening, any Dr. Suess fan will tell you that Octember is a very special time of year ... Fox in sox, noses with toeses etc etc. What does it have to do with aviation? Well, damned if I know, but yields are probably not great; just lots of cats in hats and they rarely travel Business Class. And they really make a mess in the galleys.
Anyway, moving swiftly along ... what's happening? Well, that first and most feared name on any airline's no-fly list - Recession - has just landed and is in transit; it'll probably get lost somewhere in the baggage hall, but hopefully its stay won't be too long. I'm dreading the next set of pax figures from the DAA. When you consider that Ireland was one of VERY few markets which didn't suffer a downturn (overall) after 9/11, this could be the first time in a VERY long time that we see traffic taking a downhill turn. SNN already has (although not strictly to do with aviation) and I don't know how ORK is doing.
Without wishing to climb onto my hobby horse, it's been over a year now since Dempsey became transport minister and in that time, I haven't seen the merest hint of anything approaching an aviation policy and this is really a time when some direction is needed. That said, the main focus in the coming weeks is likely to be the Metro North project, amid reports that much of it may now go overground to cut back on costs (and no doubt add a lot of time to the project). Hopefully it will go ahead soon anyway.
EI should be detailing its plans to cut back in weeks to come; we hear rumours about various routes being cut, but significantly, some hope that Dubai might come back; fingers (and toeses) crossed.
So, on that happy note, I now declare No. 36/08 officially open for business ...
"What are we going to do tonight, Brain?" "Same thing we do every night, Pinky. Try to take over the world".
ClassicLover From Ireland, joined Mar 2004, 3432 posts, RR: 14 Reply 1, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 7253 times:
Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter): That said, the main focus in the coming weeks is likely to be the Metro North project, amid reports that much of it may now go overground to cut back on costs (and no doubt add a lot of time to the project). Hopefully it will go ahead soon anyway.
If the Metro North goes overground, it should be a lot quicker to build really... with no underground stuff to build or anything.
I wish they'd make up their mind, cause it's needed - and it'll get soooo many buses off the road, which can only be a good thing in Dublin
Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter): EI should be detailing its plans to cut back in weeks to come; we hear rumours about various routes being cut, but significantly, some hope that Dubai might come back; fingers (and toeses) crossed.
If Dubai comes back, they really need to put together a proper codeshare for through flights to Asia and Australia...
I choose to fly oneworld, as a member of Qantas Frequent Flyer.
COEI2007 From Ireland, joined Jan 2007, 1215 posts, RR: 4 Reply 2, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 7232 times:
Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 1): Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
EI should be detailing its plans to cut back in weeks to come; we hear rumours about various routes being cut, but significantly, some hope that Dubai might come back; fingers (and toeses) crossed.
If Dubai comes back, they really need to put together a proper codeshare for through flights to Asia and Australia...
CallBell From Ireland, joined Mar 2008, 82 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 7224 times:
I think thats the biggest hurdle, flight timings... Arriving in Dubai in the evening allows for flights TO Asia/Australia, but nonr FROM those destinations.. Like wise arriving early in the morning allowed connections FROM Asia/Australia but none TO there.
Etihad get around this by having different timings on different days so maximising connection possibilities. Not sure how EI would manage this as its an outstation and not their base... They tried different timings at different months when Dubai was on the network. I think thats probable another reason why EK were reluctant to codeshare, in addition to product issues.
Bramble From Ireland, joined Apr 2007, 568 posts, RR: 3 Reply 4, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7183 times:
Quoting COEI2007 (Reply 251): Latest rumor i've heard from a few people is SFO will be dropped from the end of March at the start of the summer schedule. Having said that, i still hear DXB and LAX are back next year, but no real sign of these, except that EI has a contract with the crew hotel in LA
Quoting Kaitak (Reply 254): That would be a surprise; I always thought that SFO was the favoured Californian destination. Would be delighted to see them back at DXB this time and - memo to DM: "For God's sake, don't mess it up again". Get all the boxes ticket - good product, good marketing, interline or codeshare in place ...
Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 1): If Dubai comes back, they really need to put together a proper codeshare for through flights to Asia and Australia...
1) I can't see them dropping SFO. It will be a defensive move when they need to be aggressive. Shrinking your operations will not stop financial woes. Also SFO was the preferred destination on the West coast but they couldn't get in so started LAX in 1999.
2)DXB cannot be restarted without lots of egg on face for EI top team. They do not like having to swallow their words so I can't see it. Also as said above the route needs proper product, attractive aircraft and probably a codeshare. None of which are on the horizon. Granted another A330 next Feb helps standardisation but an increased chance of a nice cabin with 'low' fares doesn't beat guaranteed nice cabin and better service with Ethiad. Ethiad advertised one-stop to Sydney ex DUB would (IMO) put paid to EI trying DXB in the next 2 years.
I heard that OCS (who have recently taken over the mobility assistance at DUB) have given a price to EI for cleaning that in terms of wages to staff is in ratio of 5:9 to the current salary of EI cleaners. Not sure how that translates in terms of yearly contract.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tearbringer/..........still waiting to try out ei-duz
Shamrock321 From Ireland, joined May 2008, 236 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 7142 times:
Speaking with EI staff I hear there is a ''big'' meeting on the 1st in regard to ground handling, I dont know anymore than taht Im afraid, but the belief within EI is this is more than just scare tactics.
Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 7513 posts, RR: 18 Reply 6, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 7112 times:
Quoting CallBell (Reply 3): I think thats the biggest hurdle, flight timings... Arriving in Dubai in the evening allows for flights TO Asia/Australia, but nonr FROM those destinations.. Like wise arriving early in the morning allowed connections FROM Asia/Australia but none TO there.
It's difficult, but not unachievable. The eastbound EK departures leave DXB at about 2-3m and the arrivals are around 5.30-6am. So, if they can arrive at about 1am and leave at about 7.30-8am, they can work it. Sure it's a lot of "AOG time", but it can be worked into the timetable without losing the ability to schedule a t/a flight before or after:
DUB-DXB (c.1400-0030)
They could stagger this so as to focus on the nonstop Australia flights on some days, but still have the same return time.
DXB-DUB (0800-1300)
The aircraft operating the return flight could then be used to operate a BOS or a late JFK.
Quoting Bramble (Reply 4): 2)DXB cannot be restarted without lots of egg on face for EI top team. They do not like having to swallow their words so I can't see it. Also as said above the route needs proper product, attractive aircraft and probably a codeshare. None of which are on the horizon. Granted another A330 next Feb helps standardisation but an increased chance of a nice cabin with 'low' fares doesn't beat guaranteed nice cabin and better service with Ethiad. Ethiad advertised one-stop to Sydney ex DUB would (IMO) put paid to EI trying DXB in the next 2 years.
I think that the current economic climate may well favour this option and by next Summer, in addition to the new EI-EAV, they should have more aircraft "re-done" in the new cabin style. They'll have to do a lot of work, but I think that with the right focus, it is doable. It's either that risk, OR flying into a US market which could be weaker next year than this year.
Some unpleasant news about Irish immigration practices:
Tonymctigue From Ireland, joined Feb 2006, 882 posts, RR: 3 Reply 7, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 7107 times:
Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 1):
If the Metro North goes overground, it should be a lot quicker to build really... with no underground stuff to build or anything.
I'd be surprised if all the Metro North project goes overground. The part closest the city centre would almost definitely have to go underground. Elevated trains are a terrible eyesore and they make alot of noise. Anyone who has ever been to Chicago will know all about it. I would seriously doubt you would get through the planning process with an elevated train system through Dublin City Centre. However, it is quite conceivable that the Metro North could be a mixture of both elevated and underground trains.
Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 1):
If Dubai comes back, they really need to put together a proper codeshare for through flights to Asia and Australia...
Quoting COEI2007 (Reply 2): And time the flights to allow these connections!
Definitely. DXB should have been a nice easy start to EI's LH route network to the East but it was horribly messed up. If they EI couldn't make DXB work then they really need to get their act together big time if they are to ever have any chance of succeeding at developing a far east route network.
NEXT FLIGHTS: 05/12/08 EI 552 DUB-LYS; 08/12/08 EI 553 LYS-DUB
Bramble From Ireland, joined Apr 2007, 568 posts, RR: 3 Reply 8, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 7091 times:
Quoting Kaitak (Reply 6): It's either that risk, OR flying into a US market which could be weaker next year than this year.
I don't believe the current EI team are brave enough to take a 'risk'. Look how they backing away from Eastern expansion and differentiating themselves from FR.
Quoting Tonymctigue (Reply 7): The part closest the city centre would almost definitely have to go underground. Elevated trains are a terrible eyesore and they make alot of noise
Have you been in Sydney. They have a small elevated train,operates in a circular direction. A lot lighter than the L in CHicago and less of an eyesore. Not sure whne it was built but I believer the L in Chicago is a lot older.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tearbringer/..........still waiting to try out ei-duz
Shamrock604 From Ireland, joined Sep 2007, 403 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 7069 times:
Quoting Bramble (Reply 8): Have you been in Sydney. They have a small elevated train,operates in a circular direction. A lot lighter than the L in CHicago and less of an eyesore. Not sure whne it was built but I believer the L in Chicago is a lot older.
The elevatated train in Sydney was built for the 2000 olympics, to get people around the city centre area. It wouldnt be suitable for a large scale metro system, and indeed has been a bit of a failure in SYD, except for the couple of weeks during the Olympics themselves.
Regarding SFO, it is bookable for next summer but at just 4 per week, which might lend some credence to the idea of LAX coming back at maybe 3 per week, or the return of DXB. MCO is also in the booking engine at 3 per week, while IAD which seems to have really picked up since its launch, is 4 per week.
It is very obvious now I think, that even if the US is Aer Lingus's natural long haul market, it is far too susceptible to economic woes and political shocks to be the sole constituent of the long haul network. A counter balance is needed, and we all know in what direction they need to look....
Although the US operation has come a long way from the days of the 3 747's flying to JFK and BOS, it is continually growing and contracting. A change is needed!
Aer Lingus From Ireland, joined May 2000, 1212 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 7039 times:
Quoting Tonymctigue (Reply 7): I'd be surprised if all the Metro North project goes overground. The part closest the city centre would almost definitely have to go underground. Elevated trains are a terrible eyesore and they make alot of noise. Anyone who has ever been to Chicago will know all about it. I would seriously doubt you would get through the planning process with an elevated train system through Dublin City Centre. However, it is quite conceivable that the Metro North could be a mixture of both elevated and underground trains.
there is no question of the line remaining underground until at least the botanical gardens area. the plans have already been drawn up and the stations have been designed. the rpa website has many of these drawings and having just attended a lecture by the head of the rpa's light rail division last night in engineers ireland, it will be like this.
Quoting Shamrock604 (Reply 9): It wouldnt be suitable for a large scale metro system, and indeed has been a bit of a failure in SYD
i'm not familiar with the sydney system but the metro north project IS a light rail system. it will run on the same gauge as the luas and for the most part, both systems are interchangeable to run on each other's lines. the green line from ranelagh outbound is actually built to metro standard in terms of speed, curvature and axle loading.
Quoting Tonymctigue (Reply 7): Elevated trains are a terrible eyesore and they make a lot of noise. Anyone who has ever been to Chicago will know all about it.
the same can be said for the No. 7 train in Queens, NY. Roosevelt Avenue is a painful location to live on. However, the L and the NYC subway are heavy rail systems, the metro is and will be a light rail system.
OA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 11079 posts, RR: 22 Reply 11, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 7007 times:
Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter): When you consider that Ireland was one of VERY few markets which didn't suffer a downturn (overall) after 9/11, this could be the first time in a VERY long time that we see traffic taking a downhill turn. SNN already has (although not strictly to do with aviation) and I don't know how ORK is doing.
Very true . Its the worst I have seen things in 12 years in Ireland. I wonder if MA will continue DUB with all the cut backs. I think we could see a few airlines pull routes over the next few months if things do not improve rapidly.
Shamrock604 From Ireland, joined Sep 2007, 403 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (1 month 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 6989 times:
Quoting Aer Lingus (Reply 10): i'm not familiar with the sydney system but the metro north project IS a light rail system. it will run on the same gauge as the luas and for the most part, both systems are interchangeable to run on each other's lines. the green line from ranelagh outbound is actually built to metro standard in terms of speed, curvature and axle loading.
The sydney system that Bramble reffered to isnt actually light rail, it is a monorail. Sydney also has trams along the lines of the Luas, but that's a different system.
From my own observations at work, there has been a perceptible drop in loads this month, but that is fairly normal for september as the summer rush ends. Things normally pick up a little later in the season. The summer certainly was very good in terms of loadings, I dont know about yields. I cant speak for other carriers, but at mine, things seem OK!
Yes, I just got the email through about it. It's about time they advertised their J class with special offers...God knows people here have been crying out for it!
I'm sitting here in the library at DCU....and have just noticed that they have this month's Cara Magazine from EI on the shelf! Just beginning a BA in International Relations..should be a fun few years!
Al2637 From Ireland, joined Oct 2006, 285 posts, RR: 2 Reply 16, posted (1 month 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 6944 times:
Quoting Aer Lingus (Reply 15): However, it is quite conceivable that the Metro North could be a mixture of both elevated and underground trains.
Yes, it already is, underground through the city, ballymun and airport, overground the rest of the way. AS is poointed out above, it is more a light rail system than a metro... Luas style trains, low platforms etc etc
One important thing to remember is that it is being built as a PPP... the government doesn't pay anything until the first passenger is carried! So cutting it now will have no effect on the budget deficient (other than to remove a whole heap of contruction jobs from the economy!!!)
Sponsor Message: 
From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 7513 posts, 
