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747 Load In An A380  
User currently offlineGrozzy From Australia, joined Oct 2007, 157 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 13056 times:

It's probably going to be a while until the A380 flights are regularly 100% full, so I am wondering if you took a 747 load of passengers (about 250 or so) would the airlines make more profit to use a 747 or an A380? I'm curious to know at what stage it makes sense to replace a 747 with an Á380.

50 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAustrianZRH From Austria, joined Aug 2007, 1408 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 12981 times:

I can remember that I read on this forum that SQ reported similar trip cost for their A388 and B744, so I think it should be viable.


WARNING! The post above should be taken with a grain of salt! Furthermore, it may be slightly biased towards A.
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 12890 times:

A 747 typically accomodates 350+ and yes, the A380 supposedly has similar op costs. So the profit margins should similar. But you might want to think about using a 773ER too.

User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5947 posts, RR: 11
Reply 3, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 12887 times:

250 or so? You can get nearly that many (216) in a 757-300!
Bump up that number a bit. Northwest puts over 400 in a 747-451.
To your question:
Considering that Qantas puts just 450 seats in a 380, and you can fit NEARLY (though not quite) that many in a 744, I would think it wouldn't be a problem.

The real cash cow will be Emirates birds configured in the 600+ configuration. They'll run three different cabin setups in their 380 fleet, but that particular one should bring in quite a lot of cash.


User currently offlineDingDong From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 661 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 12900 times:



Quoting Grozzy (Thread starter):
if you took a 747 load of passengers (about 250 or so)

That would have to be a pretty small 747.  Smile

The 747 is capable of between 350 to 500 passengers, depending on configuration.

The 777, in comparison, is capable of about 300 to 450 passengers, also depending on configuration.

The A380 in its current widely available configurations, is normally capable of somewhere around 450-500 passengers, though capable of about 800 if really pressed.



DingDong, honey, please answer the doorbell!
User currently offlineGrozzy From Australia, joined Oct 2007, 157 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 12786 times:

That 250 passengers was just a guess at what a 747 holds. I am interested at the comparisson between a full 747 and the same number of passengers in an A380.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
The real cash cow will be Emirates birds configured in the 600+ configuration. They'll run three different cabin setups in their 380 fleet, but that particular one should bring in quite a lot of cash.

I don't understand where that much extra demand wil suddenly come from.


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9240 posts, RR: 76
Reply 6, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 12690 times:



Quoting Grozzy (Reply 5):
That 250 passengers was just a guess at what a 747 holds. I am interested at the comparisson between a full 747 and the same number of passengers in an A380.

250 would be about a 70% load factor on a 3 class long haul 744 configured for around 360 seats. A very realistic average number of pax.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25698 posts, RR: 85
Reply 7, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 12659 times:
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Quoting Grozzy (Reply 5):
I don't understand where that much extra demand wil suddenly come from.

It seems to be there:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ticle.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10534477

"On the Singapore-Sydney route, the A380 has on average been 90 per cent full, a significant increase over previous aircraft, said Looi Tein Po, manager of Singapore Airlines NZ."

But it may be coming from other airlines, as Emirates suggest:

"Emirates got its first A380 in late July which is flying the Dubai-New York route two to three times a week.

"It's full because people are saying they want to get on that aircraft," said Emirates president of group services Gary Chapman."


mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinePihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 4677 posts, RR: 77
Reply 8, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 12626 times:
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Quoting Grozzy (Reply 5):
I don't understand where that much extra demand wil suddenly come from.

Don't forget the migrant workers from the subcontinent and Thailand, the Philippines....
Really not a problem in the very near future...



Contrail designer
User currently offline747m8te From Australia, joined Aug 2008, 456 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 12616 times:



Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
Considering that Qantas puts just 450 seats in a 380, and you can fit NEARLY (though not quite) that many in a 744, I would think it wouldn't be a problem.

Exactly, remember QANTAS do have 450 seats in their 747-300's (though only 2 class), and many other airlines have over 400 pax on their 744's.

Also I doubt that the airlines would have trouble filling the A380 (at current seat counts), the routes that they are/will be plying them on demand that capacity.



Flown on:DHC8Q200,DHC8Q400,EMB145,E170,E190,A320,A332,A333,A343,A380,MD80,B733,B734,B737,B738,B743,B744,B744ER,B762,B763
User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7742 posts, RR: 17
Reply 10, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 12287 times:



Quoting DingDong (Reply 4):
That would have to be a pretty small 747.

The 747 is capable of between 350 to 500 passengers, depending on configuration.

But here in Europe there are many 744s flying configured for far fewer passengers. For example getting on for half the BA fleet that, at 57 aircraft, is the world's largest fleet of the type, are congigured F14 / J70 / W30 / M185 for a total of 299. So an 84 per cent load factor - approximately 10 per cent above the BA average - would give you a 250 passengers.


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4070 posts, RR: 13
Reply 11, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 12275 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 7):
"It's full because people are saying they want to get on that aircraft,"

Newness is a temporary aspect and in the case of flying it is a very weak preference factor.



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User currently offlineChiGB1973 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 1619 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 12223 times:



Quoting Grozzy (Reply 5):
I don't understand where that much extra demand wil suddenly come from.

Supply and demand. Add supply, the cost goes down thereby increasing demand.

I understand where you are coming from, but eventually they will fill it.

M


User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 12110 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 7):
It seems to be there:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ticle.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10534477

"On the Singapore-Sydney route, the A380 has on average been 90 per cent full, a significant increase over previous aircraft, said Looi Tein Po, manager of Singapore Airlines NZ."

But it may be coming from other airlines, as Emirates suggest:

"Emirates got its first A380 in late July which is flying the Dubai-New York route two to three times a week.

"It's full because people are saying they want to get on that aircraft," said Emirates president of group services Gary Chapman."

Out of curiosity, have the number of flights increased, decreased, or stayed the same on these routes?


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9240 posts, RR: 76
Reply 14, posted (6 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 11999 times:



Quoting Khobar (Reply 13):
Out of curiosity, have the number of flights increased, decreased, or stayed the same on these routes?

Questions like that, one needs to specify a time scale. Over time capacity it has increased, but the number of operators has decreased.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offline707lvr From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 585 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10707 times:

Grozzy, your original question still hasn't been answered, and I'd like to know as well. Making it simpler - if the same people, up to 450 of them, get off a 747 and walk over to a 380, which aircraft will fly them an equal distance cheaper?

User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25698 posts, RR: 85
Reply 16, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10332 times:
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Quoting Incitatus (Reply 11):
Newness is a temporary aspect and in the case of flying it is a very weak preference factor.

I'm not going to argue with the quoted gentleman.  Smile

Quoting Khobar (Reply 13):
Out of curiosity, have the number of flights increased, decreased, or stayed the same on these routes?

On SIN-SYD, I believe the number of flights have stayed the same, and also on SIN-LHR. I don't follow it that closely, and it is always possible that something has snuck up on me.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineYULWinterSkies From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2185 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10157 times:



Quoting DingDong (Reply 4):
The 777, in comparison, is capable of about 300 to 450 passengers, also depending on configuration.

I'm being neat-picky, but many (most) 777s have 250-300 seats, unless you refer to the -300.

Quoting Grozzy (Thread starter):
I'm curious to know at what stage it makes sense to replace a 747 with an Á380.

Also, how much cargo (ie aditional revenue) can the 747 and 380 take? I assume they both are quite similar?

I think it is now clear that the 744 is a little outdated and that the A380 is a much better performer. A full 744 can be replaced by an A380 with similar operating costs, according to preliminary operational reports, IIRC. So, if the A380 is filled with more pax than the full 744, you get bonus revenue. Comparing operating margins of the A380 with a 77W is, however, another issue...



When I doubt... go running!
User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10066 times:



Quoting Zeke (Reply 14):
Questions like that, one needs to specify a time scale. Over time capacity it has increased, but the number of operators has decreased.

I meant in answer to comments such as "On the Singapore-Sydney route, the A380 has on average been 90 per cent full, a significant increase over previous aircraft, said Looi Tein Po, manager of Singapore Airlines NZ."

IOW, did they reduce the overall number of flights, increase the number, or keep them the same?

Quoting Mariner (Reply 16):
On SIN-SYD, I believe the number of flights have stayed the same, and also on SIN-LHR. I don't follow it that closely, and it is always possible that something has snuck up on me.

Thanks!

Which then begs the question - if the number of flights have stayed the same, has the load factor gone down on the non-A380 flights, has it remained the same, or has it increased?


User currently offlineOjas From India, joined Mar 2008, 2989 posts, RR: 25
Reply 19, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 9744 times:



Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
The real cash cow will be Emirates birds configured in the 600+ configuration. They'll run three different cabin setups in their 380 fleet, but that particular one should bring in quite a lot of cash.

And also considering the fact those will be deployed on the Indian Subcontinent routes. DXB - COK is on their cards for this 640 seat aircraft.



A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10253 posts, RR: 97
Reply 20, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 9533 times:
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Quoting 707lvr (Reply 15):
Making it simpler - if the same people, up to 450 of them, get off a 747 and walk over to a 380, which aircraft will fly them an equal distance cheaper?

The 747, by a (very) small margin (around 5% -7% I'm guessing), up to the point at which it runs out of range.
A 744 with 450 pax will, according to its R/P fly around 7 100 Nm still-air.
An early build A380 will take 450 pax out to around 8 500 Nm still-air, according to its R/P.
It looks likely that later build planes (c. 2012) will take 450 pax out to around 8 900 Nm still-air

Of course, an A380 with 450 pax on board will also haul about 40 tonnes of cargo..  Smile

(and the 2012 version will carry this lot pretty much as far as the 744 will carry the pax only..  scratchchin  )

Rgds


User currently offlineSingapore_Air From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2000, 13745 posts, RR: 19
Reply 21, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 9380 times:



Quoting Khobar (Reply 18):
IOW, did they reduce the overall number of flights, increase the number, or keep them the same?

Daily flights began 25 October 2007 I think. Since then the airline has added a five times weekly Boeing 777-300ER service between Singapore and Sydney.



Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
User currently offlineMotorHussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3337 posts, RR: 9
Reply 22, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 9179 times:



Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
The real cash cow will be Emirates birds configured in the 600+ configuration.

The real cash comes from the premium passengers and seats. This 600+ would be configured in a dense Y only.



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineDrix From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 7 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 9087 times:



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 20):
A 744 with 450 pax will, according to its R/P fly around 7 100 Nm still-air.
An early build A380 will take 450 pax out to around 8 500 Nm still-air, according to its R/P.

We need to compare apples to apples.
450 pax in a B747 is the equivalent of 675 pax in a A380 (50% morre floor surface) if both aircrafts have the same config.
Or if you prefer, 450 pax on a A380 is the equivalent of 300 pax in a B747 (e.g. BA puts 299 pax on its 747)

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
250 or so? You can get nearly that many (216) in a 757-300!
Bump up that number a bit. Northwest puts over 400 in a 747-451.
To your question:
Considering that Qantas puts just 450 seats in a 380, and you can fit NEARLY (though not quite) that many in a 744, I would think it wouldn't be a problem.

The real cash cow will be Emirates birds configured in the 600+ configuration. They'll run three different cabin setups in their 380 fleet, but that particular one should bring in quite a lot of cash.

Again, we need to compare apples to apples. Besides, higher density doesn't need necessaraly more cash. Sure, the CASM is lower for 600 pax, but the RASM is also lower (more Y, less J and no F)


User currently offlineJetJeanes From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 1434 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (6 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 8950 times:

You can config a 747 for 500 plus but if your splitting hairs El Al were carrying 1000 pax in the 747 and ran them 24 hrs a day moveing a arge number of people for some crises.
I just could not imagine where 1000 pax would fit though



i can see for 80 miles
25 MotorHussy : Yes, and the apples we're being asked to compare is that of a fully laden QF 744 transposed into a QF A380 - and from there, which craft would be run
26 Flymd : Obviously they would not have such a high density configuration if they did not expect it to make money but you have to wonder what the yields will b
27 WingedMigrator : A dense all-Y configuration would top 800. EK's 604-seat layout will have Y and some J.
28 AA737-823 : The 747 (especially the -800, but I think also the -400) has more underbelly capacity than the A388. The A389 will solve that issue. Not really. Yes,
29 Grozzy : Finally! an answer to my original question! A great example of a thread getting side-tracked without the original question being answered.
30 2175301 : Another factor to consider: The cost of ownership. I do believe that an A380 cost more to purchase - thus has a higher monthly cost of ownership. Of
31 Triebwerk : People aren't flying it because it's new, but because of the aircraft itself. More space, better IFE--and, for some, a much more luxurious flight. No
32 DLPMMM : The 744 has a range of 13,450 km with a fuel capacity of 217,000 liters. The A380 has a range of 15,200 km with a fuel capacity of 310,000 liters. Yo
33 ABpositive : Remember also that QF is putting in Y+ cabin in A380 which has a higher yield as well.
34 Aerokiwi : Could it be that the loads on the other SQ flights between SYD and SIN have declined as people try out the A380?
35 Incitatus : Entertainment systems are not essential features of particular aircraft. At some point the same system that Emirates has on the A380 will be availabl
36 Astuteman : We NEED to answer the question that was asked.... which was Of course the question is entirely academic, as there will never be an instance where you
37 Khobar : At the risk of asking a dumb question - was this an inaugural service? They didn't fly that route previously?
38 Spr773 : Just imagine an 800 seater A-380...probably some LCC might use it to cram passengers and hence reduce fares.... Also what if there were no seats of a
39 Astuteman : One could sit 1 000 people in an 85m long A380 configured in all-Y, in greater comfort than SQ's standard 747 Y class offering... The 853 passengers
40 Alessandro : You mean 100% with tourist class, I think the loadfactor on A380ies operate so far has got 100% a few times. Profit depends how many are travelling b
41 Singapore_Air : Unlike many others, I rarely regard any questions at dumb No. Previously it was SQ231 (B744), SQ219 (B744) and SQ221 (B744). The A380 replaced the 22
42 DLPMMM : You stated 5-7%. That is not "very small" considering the profit margins of airlines, and I think you are underestimating the trip cost difference.
43 Astuteman : If that fits your definition of "large", I'll go with that.. Quite possibly. But that's what the people who are actually operarting both types appear
44 WingedMigrator : Quite the contrary on a per-seat basis, which is what matters for CASM. For example, list price of a 777-300ER is $250M - 275M, versus $315M - 335M f
45 DLPMMM : There is no doubt that the CASM of an A380 is less than a 744. Please remember that the OP was asking about trip cost per equal number of passengers,
46 Astuteman : Indeed, as I pointed out earlier. Which makes the whole discussion somewhat artificial. In reality, high demand 747 routes will (currently) almost ce
47 Leskova : It is? Since when? And why do IATA and the airlines constantly talk about increasing demand? ... hmm... so why did SQ state that the A380's trip cost
48 Khobar : Roughly is a rather vague term and could describe just about anything. The way it's used suggests the A380 is more expensive but not grossly more. It
49 Khobar : Thanks. So they went from 21 flights a week to 26 flights a week and will go to 28 flights a week when the 777 goes daily, yes?
50 Singapore_Air : Yep. And then probably back down to 26 after the Chinese New Year period (I'm guessing).
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