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Kingfisher (IT) In Trouble?  
User currently offlineBlrBird From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 578 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 10176 times:

This news item talks about Kingfisher (IT) being in deep trouble and may not start and/or stop international destinations....

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...rnational%20Routes%20&channel=comm

fair use...

Quote:

Kingfisher Airlines is likely to stop its international operations following the deepening financial crisis....

The fate of senior officials employed worldwide is also hanging in the balance, and AviationWeek has learned that the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has threatened to stop all operations of Kingfisher Airlines for not meeting the route dispersal guidelines of the government that obligates it to fly a certain amount of seats in under-served markets. Kingfisher has asked for a day's reprieve.




from star dust....
34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31667 posts, RR: 56
Reply 1, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 10074 times:

Didn't think the Bubble would burst so fast.
They are struggling after their huge investments...But far from collapse.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineLambert747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 10033 times:



Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 1):
Didn't think the Bubble would burst so fast.
They are struggling after their huge investments...But far from collapse.

9W bailed out on SFO, it is not a stretch to think that SFO-BLR will never see the light of day.


User currently offlineSkyguyB727 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 9941 times:

What is IT going to do with the A380s they have on order? If they aren't going to do any international flying, they hardly need the A380 in their fleet.

User currently offlineOjas From India, joined Mar 2008, 2962 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 9752 times:

CX and to some extent SQ folks must be just seeing all this and celebrating, 9W/IT/AI all out of the west coast. That leaves CX the monster to gobble up the traffic, but hey we will soon have EK as well.

CX should definitely take advantage of this.



A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep
User currently offlineBehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4755 posts, RR: 43
Reply 5, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 8412 times:

Last time I checked, KF launched BLR-LHR without having any onward SPAs to USA or Canada with any North American carrier! Is that still the case?

One wonders how long the profits earned from the alcohol side of business can help keep KF a float?


User currently offlineJAL From Canada, joined Apr 2000, 5083 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 8378 times:

Don't Kingfisher have A380 on order as well?


Work Hard But Play Harder
User currently offlineIrobertson From Canada, joined Apr 2006, 601 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 8112 times:

My guess is that they'll go back to their very strong domestic market and just concentrate on that for a while until this financial dive starts to reverse. I think the choice to acquire Deccan was good, but not to go long-haul quite yet.

User currently offlineLambert747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 8040 times:



Quoting Ojas (Reply 4):
CX and to some extent SQ folks must be just seeing all this and celebrating, 9W/IT/AI all out of the west coast. That leaves CX the monster to gobble up the traffic, but hey we will soon have EK as well.

LH operates the "Bangalore Express" SFO-FRA-BLR, so I would think they are most jubilant!


User currently offline474218 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6340 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 7927 times:



Quoting SkyguyB727 (Reply 3):
What is IT going to do with the A380s they have on order? If they aren't going to do any international flying, they hardly need the A380 in their fleet.

With an "average of 35 passengers per flight" the A380 does seem a little like over kill!


User currently offlineCsavel From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1362 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7834 times:



Quoting 474218 (Reply 9):
Quoting SkyguyB727 (Reply 3):
What is IT going to do with the A380s they have on order? If they aren't going to do any international flying, they hardly need the A380 in their fleet.

With an "average of 35 passengers per flight" the A380 does seem a little like over kill!

I can see loads being disappointing, and I think as a US-ian, that Indian airlines flying to the US suffer from either having ultra-long hauls, which means planes sit on the ground, or are at a competitive disadvantage with European and Asian airlines, depending on what coasts you are. That all has been said on threads by people who really know their stuff.

Here's my question;
average of 35 pax/flight??? How long has this flight been operating? Even considering the downturn, I could see half full or unprofitable, but 35 pax?? JEEZ.

The reason I am asking is I am curious just how airlines in general decide on where to expand and how. I would assume that Kingfisher execs did due diligence, and Bangalore being - until the world economic destruction - one of the hottest cities for growth, it would seem to me to be a good prospect for a non-stop to Europe - especially since Bangalore can serve as a good transfer point to South India tech/industrial hotspots like Hyderabad and Chennai and tourist places like Kochi and Trivandrum (note: not even trying to get its new name right ;--)). So what happened? Where in Kingfisher's research did they go wrong? I am really curious. I mean 35/flight??? Can anyone think of a route that poorly performing from the get-go?

PS Flying to Delhi JFK-DEL in a week, maybe I'll do a trip report if I am not lazy.



I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
User currently offlineQwame From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 129 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7707 times:



Quoting Csavel (Reply 10):

I'm also sure TPG conducted due diligence before they invested 6 billion in Wamu. I don't even think the firm that conducted the due diligence for IT envisioned the credit crunch would happen. It seemed like a solid idea and who could not stopped the cocky CEO of IT from trying to fly between BLR and SFO.


User currently offlineSingapore_Air From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2000, 13738 posts, RR: 19
Reply 12, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7676 times:



Quoting Csavel (Reply 10):
mean 35/flight???

And that is after a visible and heavy print advertising campaign in the UK along with several egocentric and self-indulged profiles of Vijay Mallya in various UK newspapers of varying merit.

British Airways must be pleased.



Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
User currently offlineCsavel From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1362 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7643 times:



Quoting Qwame (Reply 11):
I'm also sure TPG conducted due diligence before they invested 6 billion in Wamu

hah! Good answer, although I think it might have been more difficult to see the value of WAMU than figuring out potential customers for an airline flight. I mean without veering into non-AV territory, nobody freakin' knows what those CDOs CDSs and all the other derivatives were really worth.



I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
User currently offlineHohd From United States of America, joined May 2008, 397 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7221 times:

This flight (BLR-LHR) was doomed from start. They started the flight during the worst economic stock market crisis with virtually no advance notification as compared to BA which announced its HYD flight in March for the October start (now pushed to Dec). IT also has no onward code shares, does not participate in any major frequent flyer programs or alliances and does not offer meaningful connections in BLR.

They also are not competitive with pricing.

My guess is they should cut the frequency, cut prices to attract more passengers, adjust the timings for better connections from South India and look for code shares to key cities in Europe/USA.


User currently offlinePetertenthije From Netherlands, joined Jul 2001, 3353 posts, RR: 12
Reply 15, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7185 times:



Quoting Hohd (Reply 14):
My guess is they should cut the frequency, cut prices to attract more passengers, adjust the timings for better connections from South India and look for code shares to key cities in Europe/USA.

With that in mind, will IT continue with their plans to establish a long-haul hub at AMS?



Attamottamotta!
User currently offlineBlr2Syr From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 68 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 6955 times:

I dont think non of the indian carrier are in a state of exceptional deep trouble. Trouble yes , but who isnt in this climate.

My take is
- IT will drop LHR and any other ULH flights
- IT will keep the 330 and launch a good set of flights on the Middle east market where the market is relatively not harmed by the down turn.
- Look at ULH at the end of 2 yrs from now
- Develop International experience and attack EK on its home ground.
- Develop BLR to become a hub for South India and then start ULH flights when the market stabilize
- Wait for fuel to drop further
- Shape up and get the Deccan Kingfisher merger working more smoothly.
- Drop out excess aircrafts and develop markets such as kerala - gulf market , Kerla , TN , Calcutta - South asia market
- At the end of the current mess look at markets such as Pune , Amristar, Ahmadebad , Calcutta instead the usual BLR, HYD , BOM and DEL markets


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12409 posts, RR: 37
Reply 17, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 6910 times:

I sincerely hope IT does not go under (nor that the flight code "IT" finds its way to a third carrier after Air Inter and Kingfisher), but in relation to Dr. Mallya, I recall Richard Branson's advice on becoming a millionaire:

First, become a billionaire, then start an airline.


User currently offlineAbrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5075 posts, RR: 55
Reply 18, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 6727 times:



Quoting Irobertson (Reply 7):
My guess is that they'll go back to their very strong domestic market and just concentrate on that for a while until this financial dive starts to reverse. I think the choice to acquire Deccan was good, but not to go long-haul quite yet.

= What strong domestic market? Like everywhere in the world, domestic Indian market is at a slowdown. IT has the worst loads (Indians, correct me if I am wrong) before the current downturn.

Quoting Csavel (Reply 10):
The reason I am asking is I am curious just how airlines in general decide on where to expand and how. I would assume that Kingfisher execs did due diligence, and Bangalore being - until the world economic destruction - one of the hottest cities for growth, it would seem to me to be a good prospect for a non-stop to Europe - especially since Bangalore can serve as a good transfer point to South India tech/industrial hotspots like Hyderabad and Chennai and tourist places like Kochi and Trivandrum (note: not even trying to get its new name right ;--)). So what happened? Where in Kingfisher's research did they go wrong? I am really curious. I mean 35/flight??? Can anyone think of a route that poorly performing from the get-go?

= First off, I think the 35 number is probably an exaggeration. ALso, BLR is not this amazing O&D market that people think it as. BLR-LHR is curious because natural O&D is nothing amazing ... tho, IT would definitely bring in market stim. BLR-SFO is a decently strong market, and if oil was cheaper, a good place to start. However, IT would have needed feed to make it work year round.

Quoting Singapore_Air (Reply 12):
British Airways must be pleased.

= Probably. BA has seen a 10% drop in traffic, and many of their premium cabins have been hurting. BA is amazingly exposed to the financial sector.

Quoting Blr2Syr (Reply 16):
- At the end of the current mess look at markets such as Pune , Amristar, Ahmadebad , Calcutta instead the usual BLR, HYD , BOM and DEL markets

= Again, O&D is weak.

Saludos,
A.



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineBehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4755 posts, RR: 43
Reply 19, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 6272 times:



Quoting Hohd (Reply 14):
This flight (BLR-LHR) was doomed from start. They started the flight during the worst economic stock market crisis with virtually no advance notification as compared to BA which announced its HYD flight in March for the October start (now pushed to Dec). IT also has no onward code shares, does not participate in any major frequent flyer programs or alliances and does not offer meaningful connections in BLR.

You are 100% right on most accounts except for your last point. Kingfisher is part of the frequent flier programs of few major U.S. carriers as well as 1-2 in the Far East.

See the basics of launching the route by KF was not followed due to merger certificate complications with the Indian CAA which hampered it getting authority to launch long haul flights as soon as it received its A 332s and A 345s. As soon as everything was in order, they hurriedly announced the launch of BLR-LHR by giving its sales and marketing team only 3 weeks to aggressively promote the route and also by the time the route was launched, there was no SPA deal struck with BA/AF/VS/AA/UA/DL for onward flights to USA.

For any new long haul route to have a decent chance of succeeding, you need to announce its service and advertise it properly for at least 3-4 months prior to the inaugural flight otherwise you are asking for trouble. KF's team had only 3 weeks to prepare as did Indian/UK travel agents to sell the seats on board. That just isnt enough.

Another point is that everyone knows BLR-LHR is not an O&D route such as BOM-LHR, ATQ-LHR and DEL-LHR . All the EU-BLR routes are heavily dependent upon 5th freedom traffic obtained from USA and obviously knowing that KF should have ensured that one or two SPA deals should have been struck to ensure feeder traffic from the U.S. is obtained to help fill the flights.

Another issue that KF has are its current flight timings on the BLR-LHR-BLR route. These flights especially the 10pm departure from LHR is best suited for an O&D sector such as LHR-BOM but not BLR because the BLR route would be heavily dependent from getting connecting traffic from USA. Most of the U.S. flights from SFO/LAX/ORD/NYC arrive into LHR by noon and pax will not fly to BLR on KF via LHR if there is a 7-10 hour transit at LHR when more convenient options are available.

Lastly, I dont think that KF will stop LHR bound flights because it might then end up losing its slots at the airport and with 1 more A 332 being delivered, BOM-LHR is slated to be the next route.


User currently onlineFlying Belgian From Belgium, joined Jun 2001, 2390 posts, RR: 9
Reply 20, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 6075 times:
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Quoting Behramjee (Reply 19):
Another issue that KF has are its current flight timings on the BLR-LHR-BLR route. These flights especially the 10pm departure from LHR is best suited for an O&D sector such as LHR-BOM but not BLR because the BLR route would be heavily dependent from getting connecting traffic from USA. Most of the U.S. flights from SFO/LAX/ORD/NYC arrive into LHR by noon and pax will not fly to BLR on KF via LHR if there is a 7-10 hour transit at LHR when more convenient options are available.

Indeed, but does IT have many interline agreements with those carriers flying from UK to the U.S and vice versa ?

FB.



Life is great at 41.000 feet...
User currently offlineBoeing747_600 From United States of America, joined Oct 1999, 1295 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5953 times:



Quoting SkyguyB727 (Reply 3):
If they aren't going to do any international flying, they hardly need the A380 in their fleet.

BLR to Tirupathi 2x daily with 800 devotees both ways Big grin


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7399 posts, RR: 17
Reply 22, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5928 times:



Quoting Irobertson (Reply 7):
I think the choice to acquire Deccan was good, but not to go long-haul quite yet.

I thought that the only reason Kingfisher purchased Deccan was to meet the Indian Government Regulations with regard to launching international flights. So if they are closing down their international operations would that not make it a pretty poor purchase?

Quoting Csavel (Reply 10):
How long has this flight been operating?

A few days longer than 5 weeks.


User currently offlineLHR777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5818 times:



Quoting VV701 (Reply 22):
A few days longer than 5 weeks.

Or to be precise, IT started LHR services on September 3rd, 2008.


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7399 posts, RR: 17
Reply 24, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5767 times:



Quoting LHR777 (Reply 23):
Or to be precise, IT started LHR services on September 3rd, 2008.

Your precision is admirable but the actual question was

Quoting Csavel (Reply 10):
How long has this flight been operating?

So the precise answer is 38 days ago.  Smile  wink   wave 


25 Jfk777 : With all those A320's for domesic traffic why not try an A319 with a two class product like Air France's Dedicate.
26 Abrelosojos : = Simple. Not enough J demand between BLR and LHR. Dedicate works because it leverages AF's huge network at CDG and feeds to mostly oil enhanced dest
27 Irobertson : Ahh, wasn't aware of these regulations. You might have a point. Could spell deeper trouble than I expected for IT.
28 1stfl94 : Unfortunately IT is not making the best decisions. If you look at their product on LHR-BLR it is pretty good but then they make little effort to adver
29 LHR777 : It also doesn't help that Dr Mallya also said something along the lines of "We're a premium product and charge more than BA, as we believe people wil
30 Amritpal : Sweet, sounds like what the CEO of CN Rail say. "We offer premium product so we have right to charge premium price"
31 Flying Belgian : Yesterday's AF and BA's services to BLR were FULL in J and Y. IT was almost empty. BA and AF are members of major alliances with countless feeding pos
32 MaverickM11 : It has made terrible decisions. It has been an ego driven carrier and it shows in its sloppy route planning. The irony of course is that AI/IC is pro
33 Post contains links Singapore_Air : Kingfisher puts on hold new international flights “All international operations are under the scanner with the current global slowdown, and now we a
34 LHR777 : ...either of which are distinctly more precise than your original
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