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UA Brazil Frequencies Removed, DL LAX-GRU Status?  
User currently offlineTonytifao From Brazil, joined Mar 2005, 1032 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 8381 times:

Hi Everyone! Does anyone have any status on the LAX-GRU application? Do you think we will see this service in the near future?

Thanks,
Tony

59 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26025 posts, RR: 50
Reply 1, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 8347 times:

Well it will not happen in December for sure.

The DOT first has to decide if they will even strip United of its grand fathered non used frequencies, and if so they must run a full route competition as AA has also requested access to those frequencies.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 2, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 8325 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 1):
Well it will not happen in December for sure.

The DOT first has to decide if they will even strip United of its grand fathered non used frequencies, and if so they must run a full route competition as AA has also requested access to those frequencies.

LaxIntl, do you know when DOT is expected to begin the next draft for June 1st 7 weekly frequencies Brazil-US ? Use to be how long in advance ?



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33194 posts, RR: 71
Reply 3, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 8291 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 2):
LaxIntl, do you know when DOT is expected to begin the next draft for June 1st 7 weekly frequencies Brazil-US ? Use to be how long in advance ?

DOT does not have to begin anything. Airlines can initiate it. As of yet, no airline has.



a.
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26025 posts, RR: 50
Reply 4, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 8265 times:

Well the DOT often institutes a proceeding and invites airlines to apply for new allocations as they have done with China and Colombia recently.

The China proceedings timeframe was almost 1 year prior to the frequencies becoming available with the department taking nearly 6 months to decide, while the Colombia one was very short notice due to the renegotiation of the bilateral in 2007.

Hard to tell, but as MAH4546 states if airlines know additional slots are becoming available they are free to apply for them at which time based on any objections received the department would commence a formal proceeding.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 5, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 8236 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 3):
DOT does not have to begin anything. Airlines can initiate it. As of yet, no airline has.



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 4):
Well the DOT often institutes a proceeding and invites airlines to apply for new allocations as they have done with China and Colombia recently.

The China proceedings timeframe was almost 1 year prior to the frequencies becoming available with the department taking nearly 6 months to decide, while the Colombia one was very short notice due to the renegotiation of the bilateral in 2007.

Hard to tell, but as MAH4546 states if airlines know additional slots are becoming available they are free to apply for them at which time based on any objections received the department would commence a formal proceeding

Thanks both of you guys. So it seems to me, AA, DL and others are looking to how their new flights develop before asking for more.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33194 posts, RR: 71
Reply 6, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 8149 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 5):
So it seems to me, AA, DL and others are looking to how their new flights develop before asking for more.

Correct, and AA is still undecided as to what markets they want to enter. In addition to considering applying for JFK-GIG, they are also torn between MIA-FOR-BEL-MIA, MIA-MAO, and MIA-BSB. Although the first one - MIA-FOR-BEL-MIA - is probably the most likely of the three, IMO. AA wants to get into FOR.



a.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 7, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 8105 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 6):
Correct, and AA is still undecided as to what markets they want to enter. In addition to considering applying for JFK-GIG, they are also torn between MIA-FOR-BEL-MIA, MIA-MAO, and MIA-BSB. Although the first one - MIA-FOR-BEL-MIA - is probably the most likely of the three, IMO. AA wants to get into FOR.

All i can tell you is that MAO-MIA on TAM is not a strong performer and i'm sure DL will be in the future reducing it's frequencies to MAO (advance bookings are not strong) because the market isn't so big. From the 4 new routes i heard comments that CNF-MIA (AA) and ATL-REC-FOR (DL) are selling very well while the others are not so good.
What i can tell you is that for the first week of the JFK-GIG flight, flights are getting nice advance bookings on Business Class. I expect is shows a nice performance in order AA apply for a year-round flight.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33194 posts, RR: 71
Reply 8, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 8069 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 7):
From the 4 new routes i heard comments that CNF-MIA (AA) and ATL-REC-FOR (DL) are selling very well while the others are not so good.

MIA-REC-SSA-MIA is doing well too, but most sales are to/from SSA.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 7):

All i can tell you is that MAO-MIA on TAM is not a strong performer

Strong enough that it went from an A320 to a 763.



a.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 9, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 7996 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
Strong enough that it went from an A320 to a 763.

TAM was focusing cargo at that time. But pax numbers aren't strong nowadays.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4050 posts, RR: 13
Reply 10, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 7904 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 6):
Correct, and AA is still undecided as to what markets they want to enter. In addition to considering applying for JFK-GIG, they are also torn between MIA-FOR-BEL-MIA, MIA-MAO, and MIA-BSB.

No US airline in their right mind is going to fly to Belem. It is not going to happen.



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User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33194 posts, RR: 71
Reply 11, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 7896 times:



Quoting Incitatus (Reply 10):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 6):
Correct, and AA is still undecided as to what markets they want to enter. In addition to considering applying for JFK-GIG, they are also torn between MIA-FOR-BEL-MIA, MIA-MAO, and MIA-BSB.

No US airline in their right mind is going to fly to Belem. It is not going to happen.

Argue it all you want - AA keeps their eye on the market, which would be flown combined with Fortaleza. Whether they start it or not, who knows. It can also be reached easily with a 738 from Miami.

It should be noted that Belem was one only two Varig Northeast routes to be re-launched from Miami after 9/11.



a.
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3728 posts, RR: 19
Reply 12, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 7817 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
It should be noted that Belem was one only two Varig Northeast routes to be re-launched from Miami after 9/11.

Belém lies in the North.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 13, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7700 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
Argue it all you want - AA keeps their eye on the market, which would be flown combined with Fortaleza. Whether they start it or not, who knows. It can also be reached easily with a 738 from Miami.

It should be noted that Belem was one only two Varig Northeast routes to be re-launched from Miami after 9/11.

BEL was the worst performer on previous TAM FOR-BEL-MAO-MIA flight, even worst than FOR, where the route begins 2h before. If AA wants BEL, a wish good luck because they will need it !



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33194 posts, RR: 71
Reply 14, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7681 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 13):
BEL was the worst performer on previous TAM FOR-BEL-MAO-MIA flight, even worst than FOR, where the route begins 2h before.

That one fact cannot instantly draw the overly broad conclusion that the market is small. BEL is a large metro area. It should not surprise that FOR brought in more people - FOR is 75% larger!

Whether or not AA - or anybody else - flies USA-BEL remains to be seen. I believe that AA would have no problem with 3-4w flights, especially if they are part of a triangle routing or with a 738.

BEL is also a large Atlantic cargo port, though I don't know what that means for BEL-USA cargo traffic.



a.
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33194 posts, RR: 71
Reply 15, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7649 times:

Also, I'm not denying that the USA-BEL market is smaller than others like USA-FOR, USA-BSB, etc.. However, just because it is smaller does not mean it is non-existant. There are certainly situations in which smaller local markets - for other reasons - have advantages.


a.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 16, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7428 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14):
That one fact cannot instantly draw the overly broad conclusion that the market is small. BEL is a large metro area. It should not surprise that FOR brought in more people - FOR is 75% larger!

FOR is far more diversified in terms of economic activity and it's a primary leisure destination, something BEL isn't.
BEL economic activity is highly dependent from Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte (mining) and a flight will depend upon wood and food industries.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14):
BEL is also a large Atlantic cargo port, though I don't know what that means for BEL-USA cargo traffic.

Just for your info 60% of BEL sea port traffic is due to Manaus.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 15):
Also, I'm not denying that the USA-BEL market is smaller than others like USA-FOR, USA-BSB, etc.. However, just because it is smaller does not mean it is non-existant. There are certainly situations in which smaller local markets - for other reasons - have advantages.

Your comments are correct, but concerning to BEL, you will need to rely on connections to fill a flight BEL-USA.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4050 posts, RR: 13
Reply 17, posted (6 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 7236 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
Argue it all you want - AA keeps their eye on the market, which would be flown combined with Fortaleza.

My source says nonsense.

Maybe 10 or 15 years ago somebody looked at it. Not today.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
It should be noted that Belem was one only two Varig Northeast routes to be re-launched from Miami after 9/11.

Notice Varig does not exist anymore. In the past few years they made a few bad decisions.

Have you gone to Belem? Go there, look around, then come back and talk about the "economy", and the size of the city. Just to give some perspective, the GDP of Belem metro area is one fourth of the Salvador metro area GDP. No large US or European airline is going to look at it any more than they look at Timbuktu, which would likely attract more tourists than Belem.

The reason Belem surfaces is because its relative importance compared to other Brazilian cities was far greater 40 or 50 years ago. Actually until around 1920 Belem was the fourth largest city in Brazil after Rio, SP and Salvador. Today it is more comparable to Goiania than to Salvador or Fortaleza.



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User currently offlineLAxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26025 posts, RR: 50
Reply 18, posted (6 years 1 month 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 6207 times:

The DOT today decided the two vacant UA frequencies should not go unused and instituted a carrier route selection process.

Eventough the DOT plans on running the selection on an expedited basis, I doubt a decision would be fortcoming before late November/December which would mean a late February / March'ish start up -- not the best time for new Brazil route.

Let see who gets it AA or DL.

OST 2008-0307



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 19, posted (6 years 1 month 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6127 times:
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Good to see UA without such 2 frequencies, and for me it's another clear indication that UA has no further plans for Brazil.

Quoting LAxintl (Reply 18):
Eventough the DOT plans on running the selection on an expedited basis, I doubt a decision would be fortcoming before late November/December which would mean a late February / March'ish start up -- not the best time for new Brazil route.

Which means after the valuable January. Lets see AA and DL comments on DOT propposal.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (6 years 1 month 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 5993 times:

it is not correct that no carrier sought a route selection proceeding. Both AA and DL in their answers to each other's requests for the DOT to strip 1 or 2 of UA's frequencies noted that the DOT had to implement a route case.

The sheer mutual exclusivity of DL's route case over AA's gives DL the upper hand... If AA is awarded the one frequency it requested, one still remains unused. The value of route assets is maximized by awarding all to the only application that proposes using them all.

The fact that DL is opening a new route and a new region of the US to Brazil service by US carriers gives DL an advantage also. It doesn't matter that foreign carriers operate in the market or the region.

Further, it doesn't seem too hard to argue that a LAX-GRU flight can generate more revenue than a MIA-CNF rotue.

Since AA is adding its 4th weekly flight through the seasonal capacity increases, it is hard for them to argue they can't gain the route presence they need without the award.

It seems likely that DL will be awarded the frequencies and will start the service as late as possible.... the whole process could happen as fast as one month which would mean the latest DL could start the route as early March.... they would surely like to push that back to June if they can.


User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11840 posts, RR: 62
Reply 21, posted (6 years 1 month 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 5948 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 20):
Further, it doesn't seem too hard to argue that a LAX-GRU flight can generate more revenue than a MIA-CNF rotue.

I think you could find plenty of people who would argue that. Now, you'd dismiss them of course, since it would involve challenging the paradigm through which you evaluate everything (namely, that infallible Delta can do no wrong and is incapable of failure).

Nonetheless, it very much remains to be seen whether or not an LAX-GRU flight would be more or less profitable - both overall and per unit - than a MIA-CNF flight.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 20):
Since AA is adding its 4th weekly flight through the seasonal capacity increases, it is hard for them to argue they can't gain the route presence they need without the award.

Since the seasonal capacity increases are, indeed, seasonal, I think AA can certainly argue that they want this additional frequency year-round.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33194 posts, RR: 71
Reply 22, posted (6 years 1 month 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 5844 times:



Quoting Commavia (Reply 21):

Nonetheless, it very much remains to be seen whether or not an LAX-GRU flight would be more or less profitable - both overall and per unit - than a MIA-CNF flight.

MIA-CNF most likely, easily, generates more revenue than LAX-GRU, and it's ridiculous to think otherwise.

If the U.S.-CNF market was inundated with service, then fine, it probably wouldn't, but there are three flights a week between Brazil's third largest city and the United States.

Not to mention the fact that Los Angeles-Brazil is a low-yielding VFR market with little business traffic to speak of that mainly has to rely on connecting traffic to Asia - which I'm sure is what Delta is planning on doing anyway. It is of little benefit to the U.S. traveling public.

I give Delta the edge, but it could be a much closer call if AA applied for both of the frequencies.



a.
User currently offlineLobster From Germany, joined Oct 2008, 49 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (6 years 1 month 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 5618 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):
If the U.S.-CNF market was inundated with service, then fine, it probably wouldn't, but there are three flights a week between Brazil's third largest city and the United States.

Belo Horizonte isn't Brazils third largest city. It has 2,412,937 (2007) inhabitants and thus slightly less than Fortaleza with 2,431,415 (2007).

Source: IBGE: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística

This doesn't change anything though that I agree MIA-CNF is favourable compared to LAX-GRU.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33194 posts, RR: 71
Reply 24, posted (6 years 1 month 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 5607 times:



Quoting Lobster (Reply 23):
Belo Horizonte isn't Brazils third largest city. It has 2,412,937 (2007) inhabitants and thus slightly less than Fortaleza with 2,431,415 (2007).

City proper, yes, but city proper is of little importance in the grand scheme of things. It's Brazil's third largest metropolitan area and one of the sixty largest urban areas in the world. Metro region is 4.6M. Fortaleza's urban area - which is the 6h largest in Brazil - is 3.1M.



a.
25 Hardiwv : Very interesting information. So it seems that regarding the frequencies to become available in June the situation is very quiet indeed... Interestin
26 MAH4546 : No chance. SSA fills the plane; REC provides the premium traffic - it's the perfect combination. I think there is a chance they will rotate the sched
27 Hardiwv : I agree that the market now does not have room for a 3rd carrier, especially with TAM flying the B767, and in the current economic situation deterior
28 LipeGIG : If DL says they can use 1 frequency from other route, why not 2 ? Both in my view has the same chance to get the frequencies. True, just because CNF
29 Hardiwv : I know, Lipe. My question was "sarcastic" to point out that AA knows there is market for JFK-GIG. Very good news for AA in GIG which again shows that
30 LipeGIG : I got ! Just put more sarcasm. Yes Hardi, i'm sure an isolate flight is far from being a good indication of constant performance, i just tried to poi
31 WorldTraveler : It is simply fanciful to think that a route to CNF can generate more revenue or be more valuable than a route between one of the largest cities in Nor
32 Hardiwv : I agree KE and DL would co-ordinate LAX-GRU and I am sure they have already talked about this issue. KE is now offering connections from LAX to 5 dif
33 LipeGIG : You should say this in the past. Next 7 frequencies allow also GIG. I don't agree. LAX and GRU are already established bases and in fact the flight w
34 MAH4546 : They still do. Not only is AA adding significantly more capacity with their new frequencies by using only widebodies, but they are actually seeing so
35 MAH4546 : You are wrong, and you know it. It's for the same reason that Delta will make a killing on one weekly flights between Atlanta and Monrovia, significa
36 WorldTraveler : the DOT doesn't care what foreign carriers do... in fact, it is the DOT's job to ensure US carriers have the greatest opportunity to win... which is
37 LipeGIG : AA service to CNF among the 4 new ones to MAO, REC-FOR, SSA-REC and CNF, is with no doubt the best performer on Premium seats. I heard comments from
38 C010T3 : Not only that. Almost all intercontinental flights leave and arrive around the same times, which is making connections more and more expensive as con
39 MAH4546 : CNF is performing very well for AA. They are pleased with the early results. Don't believe me, it's fine. You can look up the availability in Apollo
40 LipeGIG : So we have the same situation, AA need to increase it's new market to Belo Horizonte where US citizens can't reach 4 times a week against DL and it's
41 Incitatus : I've also heard that bookings on Delta's new flights, especially ATL-MAO, are, in plain English, horrible. The seriousness of this route mistake is m
42 LipeGIG : You're right. Advance bookings on ATL-MAO are the worst among the new operations to Brazil. Mostly flights shows very light loads like 20Y and none b
43 MAH4546 : Yes, indeed. Atlanta-Manaus advance performance is horrendous! Really, really bad. It doesn't help that TAM added about 60% capacity in the U.S.-Mana
44 C010T3 : Or perhaps fly 3x weekly to BEL.
45 WorldTraveler : I personally think DL is starting its new northern/NE Brazil flight about a week later than they should (they practically start on Christmas Day). But
46 Hardiwv : It seems they know the origin of their pax after all.... This again proves that it will not be easy job to keep these flight which operate outside GR
47 C010T3 : No, those frequencies will be forever restricted. Let me remind everybody of the agreement: excerpt The designated airlines of each Contracting Party
48 Incitatus : You are assuming that DL and AA have an equal shot in the Brazilian and they don't. ATL is a good hub but is not MIA. It is not! Please accept realit
49 Tonytifao : Are you sure of this? I called AA Exectuive Desk 3x and all agents said they have no agreement.
50 MAH4546 : Which is exactly why FOR service shows to most promise for DL for now, because FOR lacks MIA connections. The O&D in these markets is too heavily wei
51 Post contains links MAH4546 : The agreement is in place. Maybe there has been a delay in implementing it? http://www.reuters.com/article/press...idUS231257+10-Jul-2008+PRN20080710
52 LipeGIG : And i would say that the 150% increase on Business Seats by TAM is even a worst scenario for DL. Any possible upgrade to 777 on AA904 ? Don't you thi
53 EXAAUADL : Disagree, DOT will look at overall benefit to the US economy. DL can argue exactly what youre arguing but AA will say that MIA-CNF with connections w
54 LipeGIG : It takes traffic from BSB, MAO, BEL, BVB and others to markets other than MIA. I do believe attraction from MAO isn't so huge.
55 WorldTraveler : I never said that it was.... but I could quote route after route where the a.net establishment said that a new route from ATL wouldn't work and lo an
56 Hardiwv : I agree that perhaps ATL-SSA could work more for DL. In DL calculation MAO would attract a lot of corporate traffic, especially from Asia and Europe
57 LipeGIG : Hardi MAO is a stronger import but nothing more than a zone that supplies the domestic market So, as you mentioned there will be impacts on their Acti
58 Incitatus : And what we have been saying in this thread is that Delta's strategy (go for the max possible number of frequencies and use the smallest aircraft pos
59 LipeGIG : SSA will be very shortly connected to MIA by both AA and TAM (there are some rumors about SSA-MIA more 3x weekly with B763) and i doubt the market ri
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