BP1 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 576 posts, RR: 1 Posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 22637 times:
With the Boeing strike resolved, what is the newly revised delivery schedule for the 787? During the 2 month Boeing break were any of the parts suppliers able to catch up on getting their parts into Boeing for the 787?
What is ANA's plan for the first flight at this point?
Cheers,
BP1
"First To Fly The A-380" / 26 October 2007 SYD-SIN Inaugural
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26699 posts, RR: 83 Reply 1, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 22585 times:
Honest answer? Nobody knows.
The pundits will just add 60 days (at least) to the last timeline, but I am hoping that those 60 days idle will result in a quicker completion schedule then if they hadn't had them and were still getting in each other's way on the planes.
BrianDromey From Ireland, joined Dec 2006, 3807 posts, RR: 10 Reply 3, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 22104 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 1): The pundits will just add 60 days (at least) to the last timeline
I wonder if it could be more than that? Will they be able to restart at breakneck speed?, or at least the speed they were at immediately before the strike?
Brian.
Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
Keesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 4, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 22037 times:
Looking at the project sofar assuming the flight test program won't go perfect is a safe starting point IMO. So first flight Q1 09, testflight program for about a year (aircraft #2 - #4 probably won't come online as quickly as hoped) , delivery Q2 2010.
Swallow From Uganda, joined Jul 2007, 544 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 21899 times:
Goodrich CEO Marshall Larsen predicted that there will be no 787 deliveries in 2009. Goodrich supplies electric brakes and thrust reversers to the 787 program. You will recall there was a delay in certifying brake software. So ANA will likely take delivery in 2010.
Dreamliners 5 and 6 are not yet in Everett and are part of the fleet of test airframes. Until all six test aircraft are flying, we cannot say for sure when certification will take place.
It was great fun reading your old post and it also shows that how enthusiastic all a.netters are and this enthusiasm had made a.net sail against all tides.
Astuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9136 posts, RR: 96 Reply 7, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 21826 times:
Quoting Swallow (Reply 5): In short, it is all up in the air!
Let's hope the 6 test airframes will be soon......
Astuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9136 posts, RR: 96 Reply 8, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 21781 times:
Keesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 9, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 21474 times:
Quoting Astuteman (Reply 7): Let's hope the 6 test airframes will be soon......
That may be an issue. A lot of lessons were learned on the first airframe. Question is how far those lessons are included on the #2-6 or will work will have to be redone. If so that might take some time, slowing the test flight process.
I think the FAA will take a conservative approach. Their responsibilities have nothing to do with fast introduction and there is a lot of new technology involved.
ChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 3805 posts, RR: 2 Reply 10, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 21438 times:
I think the Sonic Cruiser would have been flying by now, to put all this in perspective
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26699 posts, RR: 83 Reply 11, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 21376 times:
Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 10): I think the Sonic Cruiser would have been flying by now, to put all this in perspective.
It depends on the level of outsourcing Boeing would have done. The aerodynamics would have been much trickier since we were designing a plane that could theoretically have performed in a transonic flight regimen. And it was still going to be made out of CFRP.
LY4XELD From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 851 posts, RR: 16 Reply 12, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 21246 times:
Quoting Swallow (Reply 5): Dreamliners 5 and 6 are not yet in Everett and are part of the fleet of test airframes. Until all six test aircraft are flying, we cannot say for sure when certification will take place.
Not quite. Airplanes 5 and 6 are GE-powered airplanes. Theoretically, the RR powered airplanes can be certified before the GE airplanes are fully tested.
IAD787 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 501 posts, RR: 45 Reply 13, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 21241 times:
The calculations I'm working off of have the first flight early in February. This is my assessment and not any kind of Boeing calculation.
I'm working with these assumptions:
Original Factory Completion: August 31
Original First flight: October 29 (er...today)
New Factory Completion (pre-strike target): October 6
With a 60 day strike and a one-for-one slip in schedule (though I think it's slightly more) this pushes everything into late Jan/Feb 09.
IAD787
Former FlightBlogger turned Wall Street Journal Aerospace Beat Reporter
Papatango From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 500 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 21198 times:
Since the strike appears to be settled how about a revised 777 delivery schedule!
AirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 15, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 21117 times:
Quoting Astuteman (Reply 8): Have to say that a quick re-read through your old thread is a vast lesson in the subject of humble pie, Keejse.
Absolutely Astuteman! Pity Keejse didn't take some of them us on their monetary bets.....would have cleaned up! The real pity though is those who made such vicious attacks can't simply admit they were wrong, but rather try to distance themselves as ever having said anything.
Braybuddy From Ireland, joined Aug 2004, 5285 posts, RR: 35 Reply 17, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 21084 times:
Quoting Aviationbuff (Reply 6): It was great fun reading your old post and it also shows that how enthusiastic all a.netters are and this enthusiasm had made a.net sail against all tides.
If there's one lesson on the foolishness of hubris, this is it.
Kanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2467 posts, RR: 21 Reply 18, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 20067 times:
Everyone's a little premature, the vote is (I understand) Saturday and there still maybe a sizeable contingent voting against until the signing bonus equals the striker's lost pay. When they do go back there is a time for getting re-cetified, purging obsolete materials, and catching up on backlogged materials... Plus the engineers haven't been idle so there are probably lots of design revisions to be incorporated.
Give them a month after returning to work to sort out the schedules.... it's not like Detroit when you just turn the machine back on and out pops a product.
Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 10455 posts, RR: 20 Reply 19, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 19610 times:
Quoting Swallow (Reply 5):
In short, it is all up in the air!
Unfortunately, it's NOT up in the air!
On the other hand, good things come to he who waits...
OA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 4978 posts, RR: 25 Reply 20, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 19466 times:
Tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80 Reply 21, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 16111 times:
Quoting Keesje (Reply 4): Looking at the project sofar assuming the flight test program won't go perfect is a safe starting point IMO.
Well, no flight test program goes perfectly, as far as I know, so I guess you mean "worse than normal." How so? Most of the 787 issues that have come out so far appear to be supply chain/project management, not technical. Assuming that they actually hand a completed airplane to flight test, do we have reason to believe the design itself is flawed?
RedChili From Norway, joined Jul 2005, 2053 posts, RR: 2 Reply 22, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 16043 times:
Quoting OA412 (Reply 20): there are some very arrogant people in that thread
I won't call them arrogant. Just making a wrong guess doesn't make you arrogant.
Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 21): Well, no flight test program goes perfectly, as far as I know, so I guess you mean "worse than normal." How so? Most of the 787 issues that have come out so far appear to be supply chain/project management, not technical. Assuming that they actually hand a completed airplane to flight test, do we have reason to believe the design itself is flawed?
Judging by the small pieces of information from the ground tests, there's no reason to believe the flight test program will find any major techincal problems. But judging by the assembly process so far, there's every reason in the world to believe that Boeing won't have six or even four airplanes flying according to the original schedule, which was very tight.
AFGMEL From Australia, joined Jul 2007, 734 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 15920 times:
Tee Hee, there are some interesting names with predictable flags lambasting Keesje.
Not good for Boeing, but my SWAG is that the airlines are not all that unhappy at delays at the moment. Obviously there would be exceptions (QF comes to mind), but instead of the airline delaying, Boeing will have to compensate. With a recession - if not depression - on the very near horizon, US airlines in particular may prefer a delay.
25 Baroque: " target=_blank>http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo.../1/#1 Some were quite happy to make one sided offers to take Keesje's money, but I probably do
26 RedChili: In the article linked by PM in reply 23, ATW quotes a Qantas/Jetstar spokesperson, who expects an additional 3-6 months delay, and notes:
27 JoeCanuck: I can't link to the thread. I remember offering bets on when the 787 would fly. I don't recall anyone taking me up on it, though. No guts, no glory...
28 Cloudyapple: From experience the first week coming back from a holiday would be a complete write off, trying to figure out what I was doing before I left for the
29 MadameConcorde: I wonder if Boeing will send one to the Paris Air Show. It would be nice to see one flying. She would steal the show if they sent her there which I h
30 Iwok: My vote is for the 748 to fly first at this rate.... iwok
31 Chiad: " target=_blank>http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo.../1/#1 LOL Keesje .. did you take the wager?
32 Astuteman: With both 787 and 748 now expected to fly in 2009, 2009 looks like being a pretty big year for Boeing. Rgds
33 BP1: Madame Concorde - Happy Birthday. We will be on the ANA 787 together just like we were together on the SQ 380 we were on from SYD-SIN last year. Looki
34 Par13del: If you had said the NTSB I would agree with you, but history has shown that the FAA will bend over backwards to aid airlines or OEM's if their - the
35 Art: Would be interesting if they did... but they would lose a little testing time, would they not? Under normal circumstances that would not really matte
36 HB88: If I had to lay money on it, I would say first flight probably in 09 - even if it is a Potemkin style first flight as per the rollout. I'd even go out
37 Stitch: Many said the same thing about the A380 program, and it is doing okay even with the significantly smaller order book and market outlook. I mean we co
38 HB88: True to a point, but the 380 is a more conventional program and, dare I say it, aircraft, with a much less extensive outsourcing footprint and less r
39 Stitch: But with a backlog that large, is that not expected? Even if 787 ZA5x was rolling off the line right now, a number of airlines would still be waiting
40 AirNZ: Hmmm! to be fair here Tom, Keesje made absolutely no indication whatsoever that he meant "worse than normal", and simply said "assuming the flight te
41 RedChili: Boeing is now saying that they want to trim outsourcing on the 789. http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...ourcing-on-787-future-designs.html
42 Baroque: Are you expecting this "problem" to affect the 787 too?
43 DocLightning: And so far, 100% of the time an airline has made such a prediction re: the 787, the airline has been correct. Now, just a week ago I predicted that t
45 OA412: Well they were right to call you crazy if you told them that the 777 won't be entering passenger service until 2010.
46 DocLightning: I'm remembering this, both of you. I'm remembering this and I'm getting even. You shall pay for your insolence. You shall pay dearly. MuHAHAHAHAHAHAH
47 Swallow: Right. We are talking about 895 beautiful eggs (according to Wiki). Just waiting for the first bird to hatch and flap her wings. And coz of the credi
48 Rheinwaldner: You don't need to wait until 2010. Written history proves that you are wrong (about the 777)!
49 Stitch: No. But I don't expect the 787 EIS to benefit from her two-year delay to the level the A380 did.
50 AirNZ: No disrespect intended Stitch, but I would again ask why you persistently keep bringing the A380 into any thread on the 787, and would seem to me tha
51 Stitch: Fair enough. I am not interested in plain plane bashing threads, but if that is what you and other folks want, it's less time I need to spend visitin
52 Jacobin777: Interesting read... Boeing Cites 787 Progress As Airbus A350 Slips
53 FlyingAY: I assume you're speaking about widebodies. I find it hard to believe that it would ever match the numbers of 737 or A320. But not for the right reaso
54 Stitch: Yes, but if any widebody could get close, it would be the 787. Yes it is good news for the 787, especially since I believe one of the 787 vendors quo
55 Astuteman: Interesting? You're kidding. It's the same old crap Fleetbuzz always trot out. Sorry. Not distracted. Presumably trying to ensure that we do not fall
56 Stitch: Based on current and projected 777 and A340 sales, we're looking at around 2000 units that need to be replaced. I tend to see the 787 as a 767 and A3
57 Keesje: It indeed seems the A350-900 will be significant larger then the B787-9. Boeing has not said much on the 787-10 during the last two yrs. I agree the
58 Stitch: It is that, but we need to remember that when asked their opinions, the significant majority of airlines told Boeing that they wanted a larger plane
59 Astuteman: I for one would never accuse you of that, my friend. You have way too much integrity to engage in such an exercise. I guess your underlying assertion
60 Stitch: I fully expect that "the best is yet to come" for the A350XWB program in terms of sales. I really don't see Boeing in a position to offer a truly effe
61 PM: I can't recall the last time I even checked to say what FleetBuzz was saying. Why bother? You know before you even enter the site what kind of myopic
62 Scorpio: Fleetbuzz??? Come on man, the fleetbuzz 'editorial' is to commercial aviation what frontpagemag is to U.S. politics...
63 Lumberton: IMVHO provided some of the best commentary on the Boeing strike on the entire blogosphere. Judging by the comments from the (purported) union members
64 RedChili: Bernstein Research predicts: 0 deliveries in 2009 41 deliveries in 2010 55 deliveries in 2011 87 deliveries in 2012 which is 53 less than the current
65 Tdscanuck: I'm not following you...there's more than enough delivery slots in 2012 to give AA some of them. Boeing (and Airbus and Bombardier and Embraer and...
66 RedChili: It's been widely reported that some airlines earlier this year received new delivery slots which were up to 30 months delayed. So, airlines that had
67 Art: Why was it so important to offer AA 2012 delivery slots, if that info is correct? What other non-Boeing aircraft could they have ordered for delivery
68 PM: IF the 787 isn't in service before 2010 and IF the A350 is on time... ...how much has the gap between them narrowed? When the XWB was launched in 200
69 Danny: Perhaps the deal involves another party holding slots - ILFC for example? I don't believe Boeing would be selling planes that they know they wont be
70 RedChili: That would be another story. Actually, taking a look at the press releases, it appears that AA and Boeing have not signed a firm contract yet. See ht
71 Brendows: Yes, the site is biased towards Boeing, but that does not mean the site can't provide any relevant or unique content (like its coverage of the strike
72 Keesje: That looks like would mean a lot of nearly finished airframes to be completed in 2009, waiting for certification. 10 aircraft in a first year, 30 in
73 Stitch: I still see no real reason why all six test birds can't be in the air within a period of three or four months once ZA001 is ready to leave the FAL. ZA
74 Tdscanuck: You're conflating two somewhat unrelated issues here...delivery start and delivery pacing. Airlines want to take new deliveries at a known rate to ke
75 RedChili: In theory you are correct, they could be unrelated for some airlines, but not for the customers which are planning to lease out the airplanes and whi
76 Stitch: Which is why such a thing happening is likely so remote as to be effectively impossible.
77 RedChili: It seems that the problem with fasteners is not over... Fastener problems latest Dreamliner nightmare http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID
78 Tdscanuck: Well, customers don't actually purchase slots, they purchase delivery dates...Boeing is free to set up the firing order however they wish to meet the
79 Keesje: The spokesperson added that Boeing "alerted our structural and pre-integration partners to also inspect the units they have in production. Although we
80 RedChili: Once again, you're saying something which is techincally true, but it's besides the point. The point is that I have an agreement with Boeing to by an
83 Art: The fastener problem seems to have introduced further uncertainty as to how much the 787 will be delayed. The statement that less than 3% of fasteners
84 Tdscanuck: You only have any kind of claim if the signing of that agreement really did push your delivery to the right. If Boeing already had slots reserved for
85 RedChili: But it did push my delivery to the right. As you yourself said in reply 78: "customers don't actually purchase slots, they purchase delivery dates."
86 Tdscanuck: It only pushes your delivery to the right *if* Boeing releases the slot...that's very unlikely to have been the case. We've been assuming (rightly, I
87 Art: Right now - the implications of the fastener problem being unknown to me - my guess is: first flight Q1/Q2 2009 first delivery Q1/Q2 2010 IIRC Boeing'
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