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So- When Will The UA-CO Deal Go Through?  
User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10399 times:

After the successful official merger between Delta and North West,I'm wondering when the next merger will be OK'd..
Are the union-talks all over and an internal common sens has been agreed upon ?
What would be a realistic time-frame for the deal to be settled ?


Please respect animals - don't eat them...
70 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10390 times:

CO and UA haven't announced any intention to merge at this point.... what they want is an immunized (but still independent) joint venture.

User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Reply 2, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10331 times:

Thanks- I was under the impression they intended to clinch a deal like Delta/North West..
So there would be no exchange of stock or direct financial investments then ?



Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlineOOer From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 1440 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10299 times:

CO would be shooting itself in the foot if it were to merge with UA. What needs to happen is CO join *A and do some extensive code-sharing with UA especially on the west coast and they need to get rid of US...they are dragging *A to the bottom of the industry!!!

User currently offlineIliriBDL From Germany, joined May 2007, 1205 posts, RR: 14
Reply 4, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10285 times:

It's only a bunch of code-sharing, and CO entering Star Alliance.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see UA and CO hook up, or UA + US, or even CO + US. It's bound to happen down the road. Even last week in the conference Parker said that consolidation is the way to go for the whole airline industry, so I expect that he'll be active in that direction.



delta.com
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16693 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10238 times:

CO, UAL, AC and LH are forming a trans-atlantic joint venture.


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 5815 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10242 times:



Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 2):
Thanks- I was under the impression they intended to clinch a deal like Delta/North West..
So there would be no exchange of stock or direct financial investments then ?

Not at this point but there is some fairly significant speculation that a full merger will take place sometime in the future.

At this point UA and CO are planning Joint Ventures across the Atlantic (with LH and AC,) Latin America, and the Pacific with an extensive codeshare on domestic US routes as the DOJ will probably not give UA/CO ATI on domestic routes. They are also working on combining ground operations (gates, club rooms, ect..) as well as giving reciprocal benefits to their FF members as well as alot of behind the scenes operations. Its alot more then a simple code-share and will provide UA & CO with some significant cost savings as they begin to integrate their operations.

Based on what I have read on here the DL/NW merger does start the clock on COs departure from SkyTeam, and assuming that CO decides to integrate into Star right after it leaves SkyTeam that would mean a late July/early August of 2009 entry.



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineAirzim From Zimbabwe, joined Jun 2001, 1187 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10226 times:

I don't think there's anything specific in the public domain regarding the UA and CO relationship. However, every indication from management at both companies has said to expect a very "close" relationship. That could mean a variety of things and may take a few years to achieve. However for the customer, I would expect a seamless frequent flier program (much the same way as NW and CO today), with equal reciprocity and joint lounge access and services. Clearly we'll see extensive code sharing, possibly joint venture activities including sales forces/ground staff/ etc., and equity cross ownership.

I don't expect a full merger.


User currently offlinePanAm747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4242 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10216 times:

Here's my opinion, and I've gotten  flamed  for this extensively, but this is what I believe:

Continental grew weary of being the blue-tailed step-child of SkyTeam. It was always a Northwest-Delta marraige anyway, and once Delta started their build-up of JFK and began competing directly with Continental on the NYC-Europe routes, CO got fed up and left.

OneWorld was never an option - that would have been an almost identical situation, what with AA and CO competing over the Texas-Latin America market, and the AA/BA domination of the NYC-London routes.

But Star Alliance offers Continental two things - access to the west coast and lucrative Asia markets, and an alliance anchored by two airlines that are being mismanaged into the ground. Both UA and US are in perhaps the weakest position of all the legacies in terms of management, structure, and sound financial health.

Continental is one of the healthiest airlines right now - relatively speaking, of course. It has no desire at all to merge with any airline just to stay even with the new Delta. Instead, what I believe CO is doing is waiting to see if UA or US will go under. If that happens, CO will simply swoop in and pick up the tastiest morsels of one or both airlines. UA's west coast operations and Asia network would fit nicely with CoMike, and although a US/CO overlay doesn't really add too much, the PHX and CLT operations would be a nice addition to their network.

In other words, it's a win-win for CO: if UA and US survive and come out strong, CO gets a nice route network overlay that compliments their own, and if UA and/or US DON'T survive, then CO can pick the pieces they want (a la AA with TWA) without the messy and nasty problems that always go with a merger.

Flame away, but that's my opinion.



Pan Am:The World's Most Experienced Airline - P(oor) S(ailor's) A(irline): San Diego's Hometown Airline-Catch Our Smile!
User currently offlineJunction From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 766 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10214 times:

Look for the CO move from Skyteam to Star to be on more of a fast track. The close of the DL/NW deal gives a final green light. Full CO cutover to Star was estimated to be one year from close of DL merger, with UA, LH and AC codeshare starting a little sooner. CO codeshare with DL and NW will probably hang on until UA codeshare starts. It’s going to be an ugly transition, but a nice finished product.

User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7321 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10156 times:

As of now CO and UA have no intention to merge. Dont count on a merger between the two. CO will join star and they will have an extensive codesharing relationship. For now lets leave it at that.

I respect UA, but the idea of CO mergeing with UA makes me sick at my stomach.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineAirzim From Zimbabwe, joined Jun 2001, 1187 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 10149 times:



Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 8):
Continental grew weary of being the blue-tailed step-child of SkyTeam. It was always a Northwest-Delta marraige anyway, and once Delta started their build-up of JFK and began competing directly with Continental on the NYC-Europe routes, CO got fed up and left.

One very important consideration to also include is Continental's resistance to JV activities with NW/KL. CO was strongly against sending their planes to AMS for KLM to feed into Europe. CO preferred to fly their own passengers directly to secondary cities in Europe. In addition, part of the original deal also was all trans-atlantic flights regardless of destination were covered under the JV. CO wasn't enthusiastic about sharing revenue with KLM, Northwest or later Air France on EWR-CPH when they could keep all the revenue themselves.

In hindsight, may have been a good decision. Getting into that tight a relationship is very difficult to untangle. Once KL and AF merged and DL built the JV with AF, NW has little to no choice but to go along or risk ceding the European market completely. Had CO joined into a deeper JV relationship with KL or AF, it could have been CO merging with DL instead of NW, or CO and NW tying up. Regardless, the CO management would rather control their own destiny and not other secondary parties.


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2431 posts, RR: 7
Reply 12, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 10052 times:



Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 8):
Flame away, but that's my opinion

No flaming here - your post sounds quite logical - of course that's precisely why it probably won't go down that way  Wink


User currently offlineMayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 9964 posts, RR: 14
Reply 13, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 10040 times:

A CO/UA merger would also have much more route overlap, in the eyes of the DOJ as well as other sticking points. Also, if the next administration is Democratic, who's to say they would greenlight such a merger? They might have nixed the DL/NW merger, if they had the chance, which they don't.


"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7321 posts, RR: 24
Reply 14, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 10032 times:



Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 8):
Continental is one of the healthiest airlines right now - relatively speaking, of course. It has no desire at all to merge with any airline just to stay even with the new Delta. Instead, what I believe CO is doing is waiting to see if UA or US will go under. If that happens, CO will simply swoop in and pick up the tastiest morsels of one or both airlines. UA's west coast operations and Asia network would fit nicely with CoMike, and although a US/CO overlay doesn't really add too much, the PHX and CLT operations would be a nice addition to their network.



Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 8):
In other words, it's a win-win for CO: if UA and US survive and come out strong, CO gets a nice route network overlay that compliments their own, and if UA and/or US DON'T survive, then CO can pick the pieces they want (a la AA with TWA) without the messy and nasty problems that always go with a merger.

DING DING DING! We have a winner!

I agree with you 100% PanAm747. I think this is exactly what CO is doing. I really dont think CO is stupid enough to try a full on merger with UA the way things exist in their current state. Alot of thing would need to change at UA for CO to consider it again.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 5815 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 9970 times:



Quoting Mayor (Reply 13):
A CO/UA merger would also have much more route overlap

Several people have made those claims but looking at a route map, UA and CO have about as much route overlap at DL & NW does...very little in other words. Either way I think the alliance that they are entering into is the right step at this point, where it leads is up in the air Smile



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineUnited787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2641 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 9961 times:



Quoting Mayor (Reply 13):
A CO/UA merger would also have much more route overlap, in the eyes of the DOJ as well as other sticking points.

Where is the overlap? There is no more overlap between CO and UA than there was between DL and NW. Besides the obvious CO hub to UA hub routes, the only other route I can think of it LAX-HNL?

What other sticking points are there beyond what DL and NW went through? Their route systems are perfectly complimentary and the only hub that would be in danger would be CLE which would remain as a pressure relief valve from ORD and EWR...IMHO


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16693 posts, RR: 51
Reply 17, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 9955 times:



Quoting Mayor (Reply 13):
A CO/UA merger would also have much more route overlap,



Quoting United1 (Reply 15):
Several people have made those claims but looking at a route map, UA and CO have about as much route overlap at DL & NW does...very little in other words.

Really, there's not much overlap. No more than DL/NWA, outside of flights from CLE, IAH, EWR to DEN, ORD, IAD where's the overlap?



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinePanAm747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4242 posts, RR: 9
Reply 18, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 9898 times:

At the current time, the only thing approaching a route overlap between CO and UA is east coast to Europe, and that is a similar situation to LAX and SFO - both have enough O&D passengers to sustain operations at IAD and EWR.

If one looks at a combined route map of CO and UA, CO at EWR and IAH (and to a lesser extent CLE) contrasts strongly with UA's IAD, ORD, DEN, and SFO. Each hub serves a different function. For example, IAH serves as a Latin American gateway, whereas SFO funnels a large amount of Asia traffic. DEN handles most inter-western traffic, and CLE does inter-eastern traffic. ORD, IAD, and EWR do handle transfer traffic, but are strong enough to function virtually on their own.

CO will not steal much traffic from UA, nor vice-versa - they will serve as complimentary providers to areas where the other carrier cannot provide service.



Pan Am:The World's Most Experienced Airline - P(oor) S(ailor's) A(irline): San Diego's Hometown Airline-Catch Our Smile!
User currently offlineWA707atMSP From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 2179 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 9700 times:

I agree 100% with your analysis, except for one point:

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 8):
In other words, it's a win-win for CO: if UA and US survive and come out strong, CO gets a nice route network overlay that compliments their own, and if UA and/or US DON'T survive, then CO can pick the pieces they want (a la AA with TWA) without the messy and nasty problems that always go with a merger.

If UA goes out of business, CO will not be able to get everything they want without a fight. AA is still upset UA got PA's Pacific routes, and will fight very hard to get them if UA goes under.

I could potentially see a joint CO / AA bid for UA, if UA doesn't make it through the recession, with CO getting ORD, DEN, and UA's LHR slots, and AA getting SFO and IAD. The two carriers could divide UA's Pacific routes. This would be similar to the (aborted) joint AA / UA takeover of US a few years ago. CO would not get everything they wanted, but they would also be able to avoid a nasty bidding war.

I would be very surprised if a full CO / UA merger goes through, because UA is so much bigger than CO that UA would have to be the "surviving" carrier, and CO's employees would never allow CO to be subsumed into UA - CO values its independence too much.



Seaholm Maples are #1!
User currently offlineUSPIT10L From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 3295 posts, RR: 7
Reply 20, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 9627 times:



Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 19):
I could potentially see a joint CO / AA bid for UA, if UA doesn't make it through the recession, with CO getting ORD, DEN, and UA's LHR slots, and AA getting SFO and IAD. The two carriers could divide UA's Pacific routes. This would be similar to the (aborted) joint AA / UA takeover of US a few years ago. CO would not get everything they wanted, but they would also be able to avoid a nasty bidding war.

The only thing AA would've gotten from US after a UA/US merger was DCA, half the Northeast shuttle and six nonstop routes. Hardly a 50/50 split. UA still would've gotten the bulk of US' assets.



It's a Great Day for Hockey!
User currently offlinePanAm747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4242 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 9592 times:



Quote:
AA is still upset UA got PA's Pacific routes, and will fight very hard to get them if UA goes under.

I could potentially see a joint CO / AA bid for UA, if UA doesn't make it through the recession, with CO getting ORD, DEN, and UA's LHR slots, and AA getting SFO and IAD. The two carriers could divide UA's Pacific routes.

Good analysis!! However, AA would have to have feed going into the Pacific route structure, and they are tremendously weak on west coast routes. They've tried (miserably) twice, acquiring Air Cal and Reno Air, and to try again just for the Asia market doesn't really sound like something they would want to try.

But then again, the same is true of Continental, so anything is possible.



Pan Am:The World's Most Experienced Airline - P(oor) S(ailor's) A(irline): San Diego's Hometown Airline-Catch Our Smile!
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16693 posts, RR: 51
Reply 22, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 9580 times:



Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 19):

I could potentially see a joint CO / AA bid for UA, if UA doesn't make it through the recession, with CO getting ORD, DEN, and UA's LHR slots, and AA getting SFO and IAD. The two carriers could divide UA's Pacific routes.



Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 19):
I would be very surprised if a full CO / UA merger goes through, because UA is so much bigger than CO that UA would have to be the "surviving" carrier, and CO's employees would never allow CO to be subsumed into UA - CO values its independence too much.

I agree, I can see CO and AA splitting up UAL.

CO would get ORD because the DOJ would not allow to acquire AA to gain that much control.
CO would get DEN back, as they left begrudgingly because of financial reasons.
CO would get SFO, their West Coast EWR.
CO would get UAL LHR slots

AA would get NRT, LAX and probably IAD.

This would be an ideal situation as UAL would probably give CO some serious indegestion if they tried to swallow UAL whole, AA would assume some of the risk in exchange for some key assets to allow their growth into Asia.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineIsitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 24
Reply 23, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 9511 times:



Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 14):



Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 8):

I second these emotions.....CO is a smart cookie like WN. CO will wait and see if UA collapses under their own weight of mistakes and debt. Then, they slowly embed themselves on the meat left for the scavengers.
safe  shhh 



If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
User currently offlineRFields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7345 posts, RR: 32
Reply 24, posted (5 years 5 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 9513 times:

I think one of the barriers to a CO/UA merger is the management teams.

The UA team clearly wants to be the top dogs in the new larger airline.

The CO team sees no reason to negotiate themselves out of their jobs. CO is stable and strong right now. Any merger which would make sense to them would be a DL/ NW deal where CO is the survivor and the CO management takes over the new joint operations.

Because the DL/NW is really close to a buyout of NW by DL. If CO were looking for a merger / partner - the management and their major stockholders would look for the same thing.

The UA team is not interested in a 'selling' their airline.

CO and UA working together - certainly.

But CO is pretty much playing it safe and smart right now - looking to see how all the changes and impact of financials play out.


25 Beaucaire : It's interesting to note that so many here are convinced UA will dissappear,be split or just vanish because of bad management.. I thought they had a s
26 Art at ISP : CO and WN are about the best run airlines there are right now--they are each the best in class (one legacy full service and one LCC). Both have extrem
27 Isitsafenow : No...I see UAL slowing fading due to the competition. They have a better product. It's that simple, folks. safe
28 USPIT10L : United not only has the worst management, it probably also has the most outdated product. Only AA's product (interiors, service, routes) is in as sad
29 AznMadSci : While CO wants those LHR slots, I think they would also want NRT slots as well so I see a quasi-equal splitting of slots at LHR and NRT.
30 PanAm747 : Hey Beaucaire! While no one is re-arranging their schedule to attend UA's funeral just yet, their management is NOT going to be in any Fortune 500 li
31 United1 : they do They are, just like every US based legacy. UA is in the process of rolling out an upgraded onboard product overseas and will start with the U
32 DC8Fanjet : And, quite frankly, it's getting very old. United has problems, so does everyone else. I've flown just about every legacy carrier plus quite a few on
33 JRDC930 : IMHO Never. CO made it clear they want to stand alone, and i seriously doubt the DOJ will approve that. As its certain Obama will win, i get the feeli
34 EXCOASA1982 : Where?
35 United1 : LAX for starters on the club end of things...last I heard the plan is for UA/CO to open a club in T6. The idea is to combine and share gates (or at t
36 JRDC930 : I dont think congress or the DOJ cares what a CEO (they dont have good reps right now), thinks. What congress does care about is allowing mergers tha
37 Drerx7 : Ok...without looking down the trough at US or UA's tombstone...what kind of route and aircraft changes could we expect to see from this? 757s or bette
38 Iloveboeing : As an economy class passenger, I am very offended by that statement. You see, this is the mindset that UA management (and a lot of other U.S. carrier
39 JRDC930 : I agree. unfortunately on Anet your preaching to the choir. To my chargin amny on hear seem to be business travelers, or those who dont pay for their
40 Boston92 : I wonder sometime why I even participate in these United threads. 1. United is not going anywhere. Get over it. For Q3 they did "okay" meaning middle
41 XJETFlyer : I just think some other major airline is going to sink. I just don't see all these guys making it.
42 Mayor : I think the position of Employees and Customers is very close between first and second, but it still should be Employees FIRST and Customers SECOND.
43 787KQ : Although US may be a weak link, its East Coast and Caribbean network is great. Although I am a United frequent flyer and fly internationally out of Du
44 Gsosbee : Great discussion on who is first, second and third. Without great Employee morale, the company will not function. Customers pay the freight so Employ
45 MasseyBrown : So do I except that I believe CO is open to the idea of a merger in the future if UA is successful in improving their profitability and balance sheet
46 ContnlEliteCMH : Putting customers first is a cliche that works well in industries where you can rapidly change your workforce. Putting employees first makes sense in
47 Bobnwa : Better read your paper, it already happened. It is not up to the "UA team" whether to sell the airline. It is up to the creditors and the owners.
48 Isitsafenow : In 1985 '86, and again in '87, we said the exact same thing about Pan Am and Eastern. You also need to understand that in a couple of years after the
49 UAL777UK : You have hit the nail on the head, IMHO the merger is a mere formailty, unless something dramatic happens. CO and UA are going to be working very clo
50 LAXdude1023 : UA has to get their ass in gear for it even to be an option. So much has to change with UA before CO would even etertain the idea. The question becom
51 UAL777UK : As a frequent flyer with them and one who flies out of LHR. Just from my point of view they have moved on leaps and bounds with the products (new F &
52 Bobnwa : I don't remember we saying that. where was it said?
53 MasseyBrown : It's nothing I wish for. I personally believe that big is bad in itself and that, in airline mergers, 1+1 always works out to 1.75 or worse. I'm afra
54 Isitsafenow : Meaning........at that time, no one thought those two were ever going away... Most all USA carriers were quite strong in the mid 80's and Eastern was
55 LAXdude1023 : Indeed UA have made some progress with the F and J seats. I was refering more to the internal nature of the company.
56 AirNZ : Sorry, but do you want to rephrase that.......or are you implying that only such customers are important whilst all others are not?
57 Bobnwa : In the late 80's PA and EA were on shaky legs and everyone in the airline industry knew it.
58 Mayor : PanAm was already a dying airline when I hired on at DL in '71.
59 DC8FanJet : At any airline, the Business Customers are the primary target. They produce far and away the most revenue.
60 UAL777UK : Oh dont get me wrong I know exactly where your coming from. I just think slowly they are going to get there, expecially when Tilton walks.
61 DocLightning : Here's an interesting question. Suppose (just humor me) that UA came sliding to CO on their knees and said "Take us over. Save us. Take us from Worst
62 STT757 : A few months back CO got a look at UAL's books when they were discussing the merger, obviously CO saw something that made it easy for the Board of Di
63 Boston92 : You're full of it! As it is now, UA and CO will form an alliance, both should be profitable in 2009, and they will continue to be 2 different compani
64 LAXdude1023 : I agree with you. I really dont see UA liquidating nor do I see UA and CO merging. As you say, they wont have any need to once they form the Star all
65 PSA727 : If CO were to merge with or acquire another airline IMO it would be with AS (to strengthen their lacking presence on the West Coast and Northwest) and
66 F9Animal : I was thinking the exact same thing. Those 2 combined would make an incredible presence. Imagine how strong CO would be if they took AS under their w
67 WA707atMSP : Good point, but remember, AA's two previous attempts to build a west coast hub foundered because AA had to compete against UA's long established hub
68 PanAm747 : It is correct to say that United has an incredibly strong brand loyalty here in California - they've had their inter-California routes now since the 1
69 USPIT10L : PSA's demise had more to do with their own management desperately trying to ditch the old PSA style, than to competitors entries into California airp
70 PanAm747 : PSA's demise was due to a lot of factors, and I agree that poor management was chief among them (but that's another thread entirely!!). Southwest inte
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